Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

fritzelly

China's update

44 new confirmed cases, 27 new deaths (27 in Hubei), and 84 new suspected cases

Phoebas

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

That's covering 3 tiers of infection, we are talking about 3 weeks so 21 tiers.

That seems very arbitrary.
It assumes a bunch of factors - that there is a constant for the rate of spread, that the people that infected people are coming into contact with are not already infected and that that no additional preventative measures are out in place even when hundreds of thousands of people are infected.

As someone else has pointed out, it doesn't take very long for that maths to have more people infected than exist (or have ever existed).

maddog

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

Ireland Population 4,830,000 last count
Best estimates on infection are between 20-70%
Mortality rate is 3.4%
70% infection rate is 115,000 dead
20% infection rate is 33,000
Sad to say judging the HSE on past performance , could even be worse!

This annoys me, mortality rate is based on a functional health service.... 2200 infections fills all our icu beds! The mortality rate would be in the high 30 % with a non functioning health service.
This is not the flu, 2000 on trolleys across our hospital’s yesterday.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1236445293014659072?s=20

tillyfilly

Coronavirus could be ‘disaster of unimaginable proportions’ for refugees caught up in migration crisis

If cruise ships are bad these camps would be very bad for spreading

nocoverart

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The US is fúcked. Sadly. A silver lining is that it might mean Trump is dumped.

I just can’t get over how backwards and great that nation is at the same time.

Strazdas

Audrina Swift Showboat wrote: »

I do remember when the AIDS epidemic kicked off in the 80s and I can recall the absolute terror and panic around it.

At the start it wasn't known how it was transmitted so people thought you could just 'catch aids'.

New diseases are always going to be scary as we learn more about them. Plus i's a threat that we cannot see and that makes it more frightening.

Indeed, it's fear of the total unknown that has everyone freaked and in a tizzy.

In a year or two, we'll probably all be saying 'Corona....what was all the fuss about?'.

drunkmonkey

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

Ireland Population 4,830,000 last count
Best estimates on infection are between 20-70%
Mortality rate is 3.4%
70% infection rate is 115,000 dead
20% infection rate is 33,000
Sad to say judging the HSE on past performance , could even be worse!

What's the full recovery rate it's not 96.6% a lot of people still in ICU.

tobefrank321

fritzelly wrote: »

China's update

44 new confirmed cases, 27 new deaths (27 in Hubei), and 84 new suspected cases

They really have gotten this under control. In a couple of weeks new cases could be in the single figures.

They are implementing best practice and the west just ignores the lessons they learned.

jam_mac_jam

tobefrank321 wrote: »

AIDs is difficult to catch. Its not an airborne disease and requires blood to blood transmission or similar. And you could live for years.

Covid 19 is far more virulent and contagious.

I find AIDs fairly scary but that's probably showing my age and how dangerous it was considered and reported.

ChurchtownMan

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Indeed. But you asserted that 1000+ times Irish people would die from this virus than died in China. Can you link to research that supports 30-80% infection rates for Ireland? Or France/Germany/Britain?

https://www.gov.scot/publications/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-update/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

https://thesaxon.org/coronavirus-infected-up-to-70-humanity-the-scientist-startled-forecast/4140/

https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronavirus-l-epidemie-pourrait-toucher-60percent-de-la-planete-selon-un-epidemiologiste-hongkongais-1856763.html

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

China's update

44 new confirmed cases, 27 new deaths (27 in Hubei), and 84 new suspected cases

41 cases were in Hubei

Cilldara_2000

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, it's fear of the total unknown that has everyone freaked and in a tizzy.

In a year or two, we'll probably all be saying 'Corona....what was all the fuss about?'.

We're not all freaked or in a tizzy.

Professor Moriarty

nocoverart wrote: »

I just can’t get over how backwards and great that nation is at the same time.

Exactly. I think they're resting on their laurels now.

ChurchtownMan

maddog wrote: »

This annoys me, mortality rate is based on a functional health service

It isnt. It is based on the fact that no country on earth has the health service capacity that a Covid19 spike could throw at it. Effecively no health service.

People giving out about the Irish health service in relation to this issue havent a clue what they are talking about.

Strazdas

tobefrank321 wrote: »

AIDs is difficult to catch. Its not an airborne disease and requires blood to blood transmission or similar. And you could live for years.

Covid 19 is far more virulent and contagious.

That's not how AIDS was being reported at the time. People thought they could contract it by even minimal contact with someone's saliva or blood, even by kissing someone with the HIV virus. There was talk of millions dying from it (hello Corona).

jam_mac_jam

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They really have gotten this under control. In a couple of weeks new cases could be in the single figures.

They are implementing best practice and the west just ignores the lessons they learned.

I hope you are right and they are not lying through their teeth. I will be watching the stats in South Korea, Japan or Italy more closely then China because I just don't fully believe their reporting.

I don't think they are a transparent country. Maybe its true. If it is it's great news.

owlbethere

Phoebas wrote: »

19 + (19 * 4) + (19 + (19 * 4) * 4) = 418

Hopefully all the contact tracing was caught early and they are all in isolation.

The rest of us follow the guidelines, hand hygiene, containing coughs sneezing, self isolate when feeling sick

viewfromtheuk

Pretzill wrote: »

Somebody had a very relevant question about what happens if someone is dying of covid-19 and how is it handled from their families perspective etc. I haven't been watching much of this unfold today but I heard a brief statement from the family of one of the recent deaths in the UK read on Sky. The jist was they were having to grieve for their loved one, in isolation - that hit home -.I presume no bedside vigil or final goodbye - very sad.

I read in China that there are no Funerals , the bodies are taken away and cremated ASAP

jam_mac_jam

Strazdas wrote: »

That's not how AIDS was being reported at the time. People thought they could contract it by even minimal contact with someone's saliva or blood, even by kissing someone with the HIV virus. There was talk of millions dying from it (hello Corona).

A lot different to now as we know so much about it now. There was a much lower survival rate then there is today.

Quantum Erasure

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They really have gotten this under control. In a couple of weeks new cases could be in the single figures.

They are implementing best practice and the west just ignores the lessons they learned.

easy for them to do in China though, maybe not so easy in the rest of the world

babybuilder

I'm signing out for a couple of weeks. There will be an emergency in dealing with this epidemic. It's important that people prepare. Warnings from reputable international experts have indicated the severity of this disease. Those who wish to ignore the scientific literature can do so, it's a free country. "Good night and good luck!"

Xertz

It just shows though why failing to get to grips with the problems in the health service is likely to leave us a lot more vulnerable than we should be. Ireland is a very rich country. It’s also one of the most democratic countries in the world.

We, as an electorate, have only very recently decided to make health a serious political issue and, for whatever reason, we’ve just allowed this mess to roll on and on for decades, never mind years.

There’s no conspiracy. We simply voted for people who were good at getting the local pothole filled instead of people who had a joined up policy and some kind of drive to solve big national issues like health.

So unfortunately, if the health service falls over under Coronavirus, this one is on us, or at least the large % of us who didn’t make this a political issue and just let a crisis roll on and on and on.

There’s no excuse other than this is what we voted for and this is what we stood for. It’s probably the most open democratic system on the planet. We could have done so much better had we used it.

tillyfilly

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

I hope you are right and they are not lying through their teeth. I will be watching the stats in South Korea, Japan or Italy more closely then China because I just don't fully believe their reporting.

I don't think they are a transparent country. Maybe its true. If it is it's great news.

Their exports have dropped 17% since this time last year, they have a vested interest to pretend they have a handle on this to try to keep the faith of their customers , it’s all BS

wakka12

4000 cases outside china today, 2700 of which were in the 3 major hotspots Iran, South korea, Italy

Just 1% of global cases are occurring in China now, apparently

viewfromtheuk

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The doom mongering was entertaining for a while but it is now time for maturity and the better angels of our nature.

You call them doom mongers, i call them clued in, the signs have been there for weeks for those who have been taking notice.

ChurchtownMan

Xertz wrote: »

It just shows though why failing to get to grips with the problems in the health service is likely to leave us a lot more vulnerable than we should be. Ireland is a very rich country. It’s also one of the most democratic countries in the world.

We, as an electorate, have only very recently decided to make health a serious political issue and, for whatever reason, we’ve just allowed this mess to roll on and on for decades, never mind years.

There’s no conspiracy. We simply voted for people who were good at getting the local pothole filled instead of people who had a joined up policy and some kind of drive to solve big national issues like health.

So unfortunately, if the health service falls over under Coronavirus, this one is on us, or at least the large % of us who didn’t make this a political issue and just let a crisis roll on and on and on.

There’s no excuse other than this is what we voted for and this is what we stood for. It’s probably the most open democratic system on the planet. We could have done so much better had we used it.

Nonsense. Political clap trap should be kept out of this discussion.

If someone had suggested 6 months ago that we should build the resource to handle what Covid will throw at the health service, they would have been laughed out the door.

Strazdas

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

A lot different to now as we know so much about it now. There was a much lower survival rate then there is today.

Which is what will happen with Covid 19 I imagine. It will become known as a nasty flu virus strain but with a low mortality rate relative to the general population.

fritzelly

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They really have gotten this under control. In a couple of weeks new cases could be in the single figures.

They are implementing best practice and the west just ignores the lessons they learned.

They have gone from 143 new (30 dead) to 99 new (28 dead) to 44 new (27 dead) the past 3 days

I find it very hard to believe new cases have dropped that drastically - in two and half weeks they have gone from circa 2000 cases per day to a few dozen
Another few days and Ireland will be reporting more new cases per day than them

Even BNO don't bother reporting their numbers anymore

moeblogs