Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Yurt2

Unearthly wrote: »

South Korea seem to be doing very well. The cult would have crippled nearly every other country but they seem to be getting a hand on it with their aggressive and innovative testing process. How they are handling it, plus Germany's 0 death rate are much needed bit of hope to balance the awful news coming from Italy and Iran.

They had a botched response to MERS from a few years back, so had all the systems ready to go for something like this.

This is a lesson Italy won't likely forget soon. South Korea, for all intents and purposes though is an island with their northern border basically shut-off.

pc7

Yeah DS it’s a starting point for sure, Italy shows how it can go wrong. We’ve had Wuhan, now Italy, If that doesn’t show them what happens when it goes wrong you may through your hat at it.

I think Prof John Crowne is an amazing doctor, man and advocate for his patients. He was on rte one yday saying cancel too. Hopefully if more like him come out they will listen. They have them perfect get out of jail card to do this. Leo et al, just bloody do it.

Kermit.de.frog

pc7 wrote: »

Yeah hopefully Italy is just an outlier and other areas can get on top of it. Is there any site that plots countries rises for comparison?

Afraid not. France, Germany and Spain are on exactly the same trajectory at the moment.

And let's not even mention the US...

john_doe.

What is the reason Italy has been hit so bad?

Granted this guy Mattia presents to the hospital and waits 36 hrs before been diagnosed, spread it around etc. But surely this must have happened elsewhere, Cork Hospital had patient similarly not diagnosed that spread it.

But why did it get so bad in Italy. Also looks like the recovery rate is poor in Italy.

Is the virus more potent there and why ?

Lord TSC

Y'all ready for Drogheda to make the news?

Apparently there's 4 suspected cases in the hospital at the moment.

DOCARCH

Unearthly wrote: »

South Korea seem to be doing very well.

They are but they also took it very seriously. Disinfecting streets, disinfecting money, etc.

Funsterdelux

Darc19 wrote: »

Casinos don't make billions in a week let alone a year.

The amount wagered is less than $3bn a month and that's for the entire casino industry.

Profits in the industry are 5-7% for a strong operation

So one week profit in Macau for the entire industry would be about $40m

Still sizeable, but nothing near the hysterical "billions" you state

Actually Closed for 2 weeks.


Macau's gaming industry is the largest in the world, generating over MOP195 billion (US$24 billion) in revenue and about seven times larger than that of Las Vegas.[10] Macau's gambling revenue was $37 billion in 2018

So 2 weeks is about 1.4Billion USD

I dont care for the numbers, its the effort of the country to actually do something drastic, I thought I'd use an example with a high money value because its a metric that some people only seem to care about.

Not lives, families, communities.

Lord TSC

john_doe. wrote: »

But why did it get so bad in Italy. Also looks like the recovery rate is poor in Italy.

Is the virus more potent there and why ?

From what I've read, it's an area with a older demographic that didn't react quickly enough. The average age of person dying from it over there is apparently 81. Apparently it hit a region thats commonly full of people who have retired there.

Glenbhoy

OMD wrote: »

Italian death rate is high because they are not testing.
South Korea is testing and diagnosing and therefore has a much lower death rate which is likely to be the actual death rate we will see in Ireland (0.6%).

On the Diamond Princess ship for example they had 696 confirmed cases because they tested everyone. However they only had 6 deaths or 0.86%. People on Cruise Ships are generally older and more likely to be in an at risk group so again this indicates the overall death rate will be far lower than Italy is experiencing.

Certainly may be a factor, given the amount of cases which have emanated from Italy, then yes, it really seems to be much more widespread than 5000 people out of 20m odd in the affected regions in the north. But, actual number of deaths appears to be so high because of the hospital transmissions. All speculation at this stage and I'm sure the full detail will be well documented in coming years.

stockshares

MarkY91 wrote: »

The only person I'm worried about is my ma age 72 (grandma, raised me) she doesn't go out much but obviously has me and others showing up daily and interacting with her.

I'm going to Asia next month for 3 weeks. I'm a little scared of bringing it back with me but then again, it's all over the place including Ireland so it's just as dodgy going to Grafton Street as it is to Philippines at this stage.

Why would you risk it. Is it a Holiday or work

RandomName2

laurah591 wrote: »

Sorry thats disgusting
Saw facemasks in a local chemist at 3euros for 1 individual mask (the light surgical masks)
The retailer was pretty disgusted to be selling them and said wholesaler suppliers increased price 3 fold
I asked were those masks 1 use only, he advised they were useless.. kinda under his breath. Are they 1 use only?

Dust masks are completely useless. The holes are too big (they are designed to filter dust, not airborne droplets).

N95 Respirators look quite similar to dust masks but are useful. Not single use as far as I know.

Surgical masks are also apparently not appropriate, but I am no expert.

JanuarySnowstor

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Not sure if I’m mad or what it, but I don’t think quarantining large parts of the country is the way to go yet anyway. If anything they should start small. And that should start with cork

The moment they realized cork was a community transmission they should have been quarantined parts of the city where he was staying or had visited, for all we know it’s rampant here (which does worry me working in retail in the city). I think they are being very slow to deal with the matter down here really

I would agree. I think it's out there already much more than people think. Cork is a small place and it would spread easily. The Government has been poor but Michèal dithering about talks isn't helping. Meet again in a week or so sums him up and pbly sums up the lack of urgency in government. Should they not be meeting every waking hour to get a government formed??!! Shame on them.

Volthar

pjohnson wrote: »

And how many are FG planning to march in Dublin on Paddy's Day?

None. All they want is the return on investment for themselves and their friends.

daheff

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

All parades should be cancelled not just in Dublin but nationwide as organisers of some of them in my own county have done of their own accord.

And where they are not cancelled locals should not attend. If our government can't be sensible on this matter we, as citizens, can.

#Boycottyourparade2020

pc7

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Afraid not. France, Germany and Spain are on exactly the same trajectory at the moment.

And let's not even mention the US...

Really Kermit, sh1t was hoping it wasn’t the case.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Could be. I don't know.


This will defo be a supply side problem though.


How many people have it? -> limiting factor how many tests do we have?
How many people are in hospital? -> How many beds do we have?
How many people in ICU? -> How many ICU beds do we have?
How many people will die? -> whatever is left over.

DrumSteve wrote: »

I think Italys problem was how it hit at the start, their services got overwhelmed.

They've got another 2 weeks of this at least.

But while I do feel that we are slightly better prepared here as we have seen what happened there, we need to cancel the parade though.

Talking about death rates and not considering the end to end system doesn't work. See above.

This is a non-linear problem and very hard to comprehend as we don't deal with them daily.

In saying that I'm staying positive. People have to step up or be held accountable. Not acceptable to say shoulda / woulda/ coulda. There are countries in 2 weeks ahead of us. We are not doing anything differently so why would you assume a different outcome.

Wasting time explaining why Italy is different is not going to help. It's not. They have sizeable lobbying functions that don't do things in the peoples interest.

No healthcare system can deal with a problem of this scale. Look at what their doctors are saying. Wake up. We have to take a different approach before too late.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1236516883559526400?s=20

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_07/coronavirus-stiamo-creando-terapie-intensive-anche-corridoi-cb01190a-60be-11ea-8d61-438e0a276fc4.shtml

DOCARCH

pc7 wrote: »

I think Prof John Crowne is an amazing doctor, man and advocate for his patients. He was on rte one yday saying cancel too. Hopefully if more like him come out they will listen.

Last week, every health professional I heard, who were asked, said St. Patrick's Day parades should be postponed.

is_that_so

odyssey06 wrote: »

You did. Your posts are just exercises in evasion. Someone posts a UK projection on figures, you challenge it as no one has said it will be like that "in this country" and it's panic to post such 'stuff'.
If you want to challenge the UK figures do so.

Projections are not facts, they change as new data emerges. There's some Professor McConkey who's called a worse case scenario of 20,000 deaths here!

boege

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

CT scans aren’t something that should be done willy nilly as they give a small dose of radiation, not to mention that each machine can only do maybe 4 or 5 an hour.

The lab test has its limitations and produces false negatives. The Chinese moved to using CT to detect
infection. See paper on based on study of 1000 patients:
http://https://www.itnonline.com/content/ct-provides-best-diagnosis-novel-coronavirus-covid-19

silverharp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SpinelliManuela/status/1236582299162021888

whats her point? I don't believe taxis didn't give her a ride because she is Italian? or are they asking to see passports now?

MarkY91

stockshares wrote: »

Why would you risk it. Is it a Holiday or work

Why would you risk leaving your house also? It's everywhere. There's been 4 cases in Philippines, 3 have recovered. It's statistically safer there than in Ireland.

1641

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Actually Closed for 2 weeks.


Macau's gaming industry is the largest in the world, generating over MOP195 billion (US$24 billion) in revenue and about seven times larger than that of Las Vegas.[10] Macau's gambling revenue was $37 billion in 2018

So 2 weeks is about 1.4Billion USD

It is a bit apples and oranges,though. Macau has roughly just over half the population of greater Dublin (700,000) and a population density of 21,340 per kilometre. Dublin's density is not much more that 1/10 of that -4,588 per km. And that is not to include the rest of this country.

OMD

pc7 wrote: »

I think Prof John Crowne is an amazing doctor, man and advocate for his patients. He was on rte one yday saying cancel too. Hopefully if more like him come out they will listen. They have them perfect get out of jail card to do this. Leo et al, just bloody do it.

John Crown may be a good oncologist but he has no specific training in Public Health or Epidemiology beyond what he learnt as a student 40 years ago and his opinion should carry very little weight.

Your post indicates that we should trust him but not the hundreds of public health doctors in this country who are specifically trained to respond to situations like this.

Kermit.de.frog

john_doe. wrote: »

What is the reason Italy has been hit so bad?

Granted this guy Mattia presents to the hospital and waits 36 hrs before been diagnosed, spread it around etc. But surely this must have happened elsewhere, Cork Hospital had patient similarly not diagnosed that spread it.

But why did it get so bad in Italy. Also looks like the recovery rate is poor in Italy.

Is the virus more potent there and why ?

The only difference between Italy and the rest of Europe is we are behind a couple of weeks.

is_that_so

Itssoeasy wrote: »

There is another case confirmed in Galway but that would make 20 not 23.

Who has confirmed it officially?

spurious

OMD wrote: »

People on Cruise Ships are generally older and more likely to be in an at risk group so again this indicates the overall death rate will be far lower than Italy is experiencing.

Most Cruise ships are kept very clean though, because of the ever present Norovirus threats, regardless of the coronavirus. Non stop the staff are cleaning railings, walls, anything people might be touching. If anything it shows good hygiene has a lot to do with battling this.

is_that_so

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The only difference between Italy and the rest of Europe is we are behind a couple of weeks.

I think we can probably say that Italy has screwed up, nowhere else has the same very rapid rise in cases.

US2

Hearing of multiple cases in the east of the country, Drogheda.

Graces7

Jade Gray Misogyny wrote: »

I was wondering about this. I live in Dublin city and am concerned for my eldest child who has a lung/ & liver condition and unable to fight respiratory infections. Was wondering if he would be better off going to stay with family in a rural area. What do you think?

I wondered about folk with holiday homes while this is in progress? Sounds good to me; less human contact and cleaner air.

john_doe.

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I would agree. I think it's out there already much more than people think. Cork is a small place and it would spread easily. The Government has been poor but Michèal dithering about talks isn't helping. Meet again in a week or so sums him up and pbly sums up the lack of urgency in government. Should they not be meeting every waking hour to get a government formed??!! Shame on them.

Ya It has to be spreading in Cork. Can't explain where the guy got it from , which means there is someone most likely out there spreading it.

Then factor in this guy was in hospital with doctors , nurses who move patients between wards.

I'd imagine there are number infected in hospital itself , just not known yet.