Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

the butcher

The Nal wrote: »

Where did you read this?

Poster probably read this

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year.

Ira Longini, a biostatistician and adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), has predicted that two-thirds of the global population may eventually contract COVID-19.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population.

DrumSteve

The Nal wrote: »

Where did you read this?

I believe that was the WHO's absolute worst case scenario; basically if no country did anything at all to stop it (like for instance; if china didn't lock down Wuhan)

pwurple

crossman47 wrote: »

Of course he is. Many on here seem to feel hes not worried enough.

Worry is completely useless though. Hand wringing and freaking out. What's the point?

My mother was worried about me going to San francisco decades ago because I would die of AIDS by using a toilet someone else would use.

It was considered the MOST pressing issue of the late 80's.
https://news.gallup.com/vault/259643/gallup-vault-fear-anxiety-during-1980s-aids-crisis.aspx


Ebola panic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/an-epidemic-of-fear-and-anxiety-hits-americans-amid-ebola-outbreak/2014/10/15/0760fb96-54a8-11e4-ba4b-f6333e2c0453_story.html


Avian Flu
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-arent-we-more-scared-of-the-bird-flu

Remember when we were all going to die of Anthrax
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-truth-about-anthrax-5363413.html


MERS terror
https://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/2015/06/05/mers-virus-spreads-fear-death-in-s-korea-evokes-memories-of-sars-epidemic/#597f24ef660f


Swine flu, how to manage your anxiety
https://www.apa.org/helpcenter/h1n1-flu



Maybe I'm just old and jaded. These things come and go.
Go about your business and take precautions if recommended in your area...

Abba987

pwurple wrote: »

Worry is completely useless though. Hand wringing and freaking out. What's the point?

My mother was worried about me going to San francisco decades ago because I would die of AIDS by using a toilet someone else would use.

It was considered the MOST pressing issue of the late 80's.
https://news.gallup.com/vault/259643/gallup-vault-fear-anxiety-during-1980s-aids-crisis.aspx


Ebola panic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/an-epidemic-of-fear-and-anxiety-hits-americans-amid-ebola-outbreak/2014/10/15/0760fb96-54a8-11e4-ba4b-f6333e2c0453_story.html


Avian Flu
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-arent-we-more-scared-of-the-bird-flu

Remember when we were all going to die of Anthrax
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-truth-about-anthrax-5363413.html


MERS terror
https://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/2015/06/05/mers-virus-spreads-fear-death-in-s-korea-evokes-memories-of-sars-epidemic/#597f24ef660f


Swine flu, how to manage your anxiety
https://www.apa.org/helpcenter/h1n1-flu



Maybe I'm just old and jaded. These things come and go.
Go about your business and take precautions if recommended in your area...

The iodine tablets was another one

fr336

Allinall wrote: »

You could stop reading rubbish on the internet.

What are the predictions for worldwide infection rates?

igCorcaigh

Seems a reasonable possibility, 40 to 70 pc, but may take a year or two.

Drumpot

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The number of ICU beds available is totally dependent on having sufficient specialist nurses and medical staff to attend to them.

These specialists do not drop out of the sky at the drop of a hat.

Unlike the 'normal' ICU beds, the beds must be in an isolation unit because this is a very infectious disease. One of the reasons the Chinese built a hospital in 2 weeks.

If any of the specialist nursing and medical staff must self isolate... the problem is compounded.

Difficult times ahead.

Again , there is a disconnect when it comes to playing out variables beyond your control. I think I’m prob gonna get this virus at some stage but me and my family are lower risk so I’m not that concerned personally as I was before chatting with my GP.

So I’m trying to decide what considerations if I am to go to a planned trip to Washington over the coming months:

- if I get sick away , do I automatically have to quarantine and if so do I include a potential 14 day extension

- do I want to get onto a plane there and back?

- I have a young family, will they be scared while
I’m away if things have been happening/change?

- do I want to be sick abroad?

- do I want to abroad and one of my family potentially sick? What if my wife gets sick while I am away? She can’t ask her parents to help because they are higher risk. Will she be ok managing the kids on her own?

- what if travel restrictions change for some reason and I’m stuck indefinitely in another country

- what do I do if one of my friends (travel companions) gets ill while I’m away?

These are the things I’m considering off the top of my head.

darjeeling

the butcher wrote: »

Poster probably read this

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for

Official announcements from government ministers and their scientific advisers in the UK are in line with this 70% estimate.
They tell us that their worst case scenario sees 80% of the population catch this virus.
And from what they're telling us, they have decided to allow the epidemic to run its course because they think that containment is impossible and would cause too much damage to economic activity.

As the number of infected people picks up - and it will do so exponentially - they will pump the brakes by closing schools, banning mass gatherings etc.
This will reduce transmission, bringing down the number of people who will be infected at the peak of the epidemic, but also prolonging the epidemic.
It will flatten the curve, but not greatly change the area under the curve - i.e. the number of people who ultimately get infected.

We look to be going to take very much the same approach here.

What then becomes essential is putting in place measures to prevent the most vulnerable from getting it - people in hospitals and nursing homes.

Meanwhile, the rest of us just have to keep washing our hands, staying home when sick, and generally doing our bit to slow the epidemic down.

Away With The Fairies

Allinall wrote: »

You could stop reading rubbish on the internet.

Are you an epidemiology expert?

MarkY91

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

As of now


80,422 China
6,088 South Korea
3,513 Iran
3,513 Italy
444 Germany
377 France
360 Japan
248 Spain
162 United States
117 Singapore
105 Hong Kong
95 Switzerland

Source: Hopkins

Do Iran and Italy go to extra time?

Kermit.de.frog

Phibsboro

Just to try and put this in context for people, here is what the UK is facing with 115 cases today and assumed local spread. The doubling rate is 2.4 days (though I have seen it as high as 3 days). You can play with this doubling calculator to see where things will be in the coming weeks. https://rechneronline.de/add-time/doubling.php

For example, at 2.4 days doubling rate the UK will have 30 million cases by April 19th. Extending that doubling rate out to 3 days only delays hitting 30 million to April 27th. You can see why the UK gov has "Delay" as a specific phase in their plan, they want to extend that doubling time to push the peak further away from current flu season and also into the warmer months in the hope that the virus might die away naturally at that point.

The reason we haven't seen these kinds of numbers yet is because China shut down a city as large as London and a province larger than England, to the point of sealing in housing complexes. The UK (or Ireland) doesn't have the infrastructure (or I would suggest the social cohesion) to do that.

igCorcaigh

darjeeling wrote: »

Official announcements from government ministers and their scientific advisers in the UK are in line with this 70% estimate.
They tell us that their worst case scenario sees 80% of the population catch this virus.
And from what they're telling us, they have decided to allow the epidemic to run its course because they think that containment is impossible and would cause too much damage to economic activity.

As the number of infected people picks up - and it will do so exponentially - they will pump the brakes by closing schools, banning mass gatherings etc.
This will reduce transmission, bringing down the number of people who will be infected at the peak of the epidemic, but also prolonging the epidemic.
It will flatten the curve, but not greatly change the area under the curve - i.e. the number of people who ultimately get infected.

We look to be going to take very much the same approach here.

What then becomes essential is putting in place measures to prevent the most vulnerable from getting it - people in hospitals and nursing homes.

Meanwhile, the rest of us just have to keep washing our hands, staying home when sick, and generally doing our bit to slow the epidemic down.

Wish I could thank this more.

Sigma101

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Seems a reasonable possibility, 40 to 70 pc, but may take a year or two.

Well it's early days yet but China looks like it's going to plateau at less than 0.01%. (Early signs that S. Korea are now also beginning to slow the rate of growth.)

TTLF

The school bathrooms didn’t have soap again today...

Yurt2

This is probably the largest global mobilisation of national medical systems to halt the spread of a virus in history.

The Spanish Flu is estimated to have infected one third of the global population at the time before it ran its course.

Left to its own devices, with modern connectivity, a figure of 40 percent wouldn't bollocks at all actually. The Chinese Communist Party didn't hit the off switch on the second largest economy in the world for the craic like.

Skybirdjb

I have 2 friends on the way back from a holiday in Thailand. I’m thinking it would be best to give them a wide birth for 2 weeks ??
I only worry as I have other health issues with a compromised immune system as it is . So thinking I would be more likely to pick anything up

langer91

darjeeling wrote: »

Official announcements from government ministers and their scientific advisers in the UK are in line with this 70% estimate.
They tell us that their worst case scenario sees 80% of the population catch this virus.
And from what they're telling us, they have decided to allow the epidemic to run its course because they think that containment is impossible and would cause too much damage to economic activity.

As the number of infected people picks up - and it will do so exponentially - they will pump the brakes by closing schools, banning mass gatherings etc.
This will reduce transmission, bringing down the number of people who will be infected at the peak of the epidemic, but also prolonging the epidemic.
It will flatten the curve, but not greatly change the area under the curve - i.e. the number of people who ultimately get infected.

We look to be going to take very much the same approach here.

What then becomes essential is putting in place measures to prevent the most vulnerable from getting it - people in hospitals and nursing homes.

Meanwhile, the rest of us just have to keep washing our hands, staying home when sick, and generally doing our bit to slow the epidemic down.

Do you think public gatherings such as football matches or Cheltenham will go ahead?

Seems sick to me they’d leave these go ahead knowing people will get infected

blanch152

pwurple wrote: »

Worry is completely useless though. Hand wringing and freaking out. What's the point?

My mother was worried about me going to San francisco decades ago because I would die of AIDS by using a toilet someone else would use.

It was considered the MOST pressing issue of the late 80's.
https://news.gallup.com/vault/259643/gallup-vault-fear-anxiety-during-1980s-aids-crisis.aspx


Ebola panic
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/an-epidemic-of-fear-and-anxiety-hits-americans-amid-ebola-outbreak/2014/10/15/0760fb96-54a8-11e4-ba4b-f6333e2c0453_story.html


Avian Flu
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/why-arent-we-more-scared-of-the-bird-flu

Remember when we were all going to die of Anthrax
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/the-truth-about-anthrax-5363413.html


MERS terror
https://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/2015/06/05/mers-virus-spreads-fear-death-in-s-korea-evokes-memories-of-sars-epidemic/#597f24ef660f


Swine flu, how to manage your anxiety
https://www.apa.org/helpcenter/h1n1-flu



Maybe I'm just old and jaded. These things come and go.
Go about your business and take precautions if recommended in your area...

I had forgotten about anthrax, remember reading about it in the 1970s.

fr336

Skybirdjb wrote: »

I have 2 friends on the way back from a holiday in Thailand. I’m thinking it would be best to give them a wide birth for 2 weeks ??
I only worry as I have other health issues with a compromised immune system as it is . So thinking I would be more likely to pick anything up

Definitely avoid.

Fleetwoodmac

paw patrol wrote: »

If they came back from an infected zone and carried on working meeting and working with people. Then they are assholes and the hospital management complete are cnuts too.
And these are medical professionals...like ffs...:mad::rolleyes::eek:

even banks and IT are telling staff to stay away but the HSE "no bother pal great to have you back at work"

if anybody gets sick and dies from this , that's on them.

In all fairness though wasn't the initial directive from government to only self isolate if you were symptomatic. Their return to work may have coincided with this. I don't think it's fair to place blame on them.

Skybirdjb

fr336 wrote: »

Definitely avoid.

I’m thinking defo avoid ! I wonder will they be allowed to go to work after being in Thailand?? Surly that is a high risk country

igCorcaigh

Sigma101 wrote: »

Well it's early days yet but China looks like it's going to plateau at less than 0.01%. (Early signs that S. Korea are now also beginning to slow the rate of growth.)

Yes, due to some extreme measures.
The figure may rise again as measures are lifted, but who knows

mlem123

TTLF wrote: »

The school bathrooms didn’t have soap again today...

Can you give your child a bottle to bring in and a towel so they're not sharing those?

Nijmegen

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Funny how Italy stayed at 2 cases for ages. Testing has a lot to do with your numbers rather than the actual spread.

igCorcaigh

TTLF wrote: »

The school bathrooms didn’t have soap again today...

That's a discrace at any time.
Hope you raised a complaint.

Fleetwoodmac

TTLF wrote: »

The school bathrooms didn’t have soap again today...

Have to say my kids teachers have been so proactive... Hand sanitizer by classroom door and toilet... used on exit/return from break and toilet. A strike if not used!!

average_runner

runawaybishop wrote: »

Pretty much 95% of senior civil servants are in the at risk category. If they were calling the shots do you not think they would have their own health at the forefront?

Well evidence so far seems to indicate no, or maybe they haven't got the skillset to deal with it or leadership qualities

stephenjmcd

Panrich wrote: »

115 cases in UK now. Not too bad.

Was expecting more, but that's actually not too bad after yesterday's jump.
They seem to know where each case was picked up too. Again Italy being the main cause

TTLF

mlem123 wrote: »

Can you give your child a bottle to bring in and a towel so they're not sharing those?

Pal I’m in the in school, 5th year lmao