Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Reati

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

A startling number of coronavirus patients get reinfected

If you’re going to be pedantic: https://www.zmescience.com/science/a-startling-number-of-coronavirus-patients-get-reinfected/

"This might not mean that the patients did not get reinfected, but rather did not get rid of the virus completely in the first place"

A startling number of "cured" patients show signs of virus in later testing would be a better headline.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

When did they go to Italy. Were they back working and in school when they returned?

Apparently they returned on the same flight from Italy as the case last week.

DrumSteve

Beasty wrote: »

6 cases already in the Republic, 3 in the North. I fully expect temperatures to rise but would request everyone pays attention to the mod warnings carried over from earlier threads and set out below. In particular please remain civil to each other

I see you've been doing you're research on Covid-19, Beasty.

Dyr

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

I'm not so sure I understand this, what would give us an edge?

The great big ****ing sea around us

9 cases, all of which stepped off flights from Northern Italy. Totally unpreventable

the butcher

Going to summarise & add to some posts from the last thread that should be given some visibility.

No harm having some Vit D3 supplements (I have ones coupled with K2) BUT - Please note if you have something like sarcoidosis/hypercalcemia GO AND CONSULT your GP first.

Some evidence for Vitamin D3 to impact ARDS, which as you know is one of the ways that COVID-19 kills ->

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developed in 17–29% of hospitalized patients, and secondary infection developed in 10%.
D3 has also been shown to aid general healing in the lungs and increasing the rate at which the lungs can recover.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

Vitamin D deficiency may affect the immune system as vitamin D plays an immunomodulation role (6), enhancing innate immunity by up-regulating the expression and secretion of antimicrobial peptides (7–8), which boosts mucosal defences. Furthermore, recent meta-analyses have reported a protective effect of vitamin D supplementation on respiratory tract infections (9–12).

https://www.who.int/elena/titles/commentary/vitamind_pneumonia_children/en/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6186338/

Researchers at Peking University's School of Life Sciences and the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, discovered the virus has evolved into two major lineages - dubbed ‘L’ and ‘S’ types.

The older ‘S-type’ appears to be milder and less infectious, while the ‘L-type’ which emerged later, spreads quickly and currently accounts for around 70 per cent of cases.

Genetic analysis of a man in the US who tested positive on January 21, also showed it is possible to be infected with both types.

Link to research:
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

This might be the reason we are seeing a 14% reinfection rate in China. Two different paths.

Reinfection ->
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

Song Tie, vice director of the local disease control center in southern China’s Guangdong province, told a media briefing on Wednesday that as many as 14% of discharged patients in the province have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation.

Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat coronavirus slowdown. Last time this happened was in 2008 following the Lehman Brothers collapse. This is probably the most predicted recession ever, it just needed an event to trigger it, the foundations for it have been building for a while.

Most cases that are coming out now stem from traveling to Italy.

Reports saying it can last on surfaces up to a week. Might be best to leave the shoes at the front door. Gloves might lure you into a false sense of security, make sure you keep up good hand hygiene. Keep social distance.

Confirmed Cases
27th Jan China 4.4k 27th Feb Outside China 4.3k
28th Jan China 6k 28th Feb Outside China 5.3k
29th Jan China 7.7k 29th Feb Outside China 6.8k
30th Jan China 9.7k 1st March Outside China 8.5k
31st Jan China 11.2k 2nd March Outside China 10.3k
1st Feb China 14.3k 3rd March Outside China 12.7k
2nd Feb China 17.2k 4th March Outside China 14.9k

Expect that to be over 20k cases outside China by Saturday.

Mic 1972

Reati wrote: »

"This might not mean that the patients did not get reinfected, but rather did not get rid of the virus completely in the first place"

A startling number of "cured" patients show signs of virus in later testing would be a better headline.

Correct, the re-infection legend is bull****
it's just people not having fully recovered

Bot1

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

What do people advise to do when they are aware of **** parents that took their children out of school this week to go skiing in Northern Italy for the week? The kids will be back at school next Monday.

Would you insist on the school refusing the children entry due to the risk of infecting dozens of school children who then risk spreading it among their own families/friends or do you keep you own kids out of school for 2 weeks? (especially when they are in the same class as those returning from Italy)

I believe the school should ring the parents and tell them to keep the children at home. The parents may object but they would have zero support from anywhere so let them object.

If those parents travelled before the change in the travel advisory (morning of the 4th) then they have done absolutely nothing wrong (even now there is no ban on travel).

As long as they follow the precautions and HSE advice those children are fully entitled to go to school.

I would support them.

If you have a problem with the guidelines as they exist then your issue is with the Dept. Of Foreign Affairs and the HSE so I suggest you take your pitchfork and aim it at them.

Tacitus Kilgore

Bambi wrote: »

The great big ****ing sea around us

9 cases, all of which stepped off flights from Northern Italy. Totally unpreventable

I agree

Blueshoe

Gods Gift wrote: »

Some good news at last.

The Coronas are currently touring


in Dubai.

I'd prefer the virus

Cee-Jay-Cee

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

Apparently they returned on the same flight from Italy as the case last week.

But when was that flight?

Phoenix Wright

Was unsure how much it counted for, but the schoolyard gossip (via my mother) also suggested that the father from that new cluster is a GP

stephenjmcd

dan786 wrote: »

UK numbers are expected to go above 100 today. They are gone from containment phase to delay phase. Its going to get very bad there with dozens of cases being through community transmission.

Where do you see this ?? Haven't seen that reported and they are currently still saying containment and that this wont change

lainey_d_123

Drumpot wrote: »

This is true but there is an important caveat. For many people being calm is leading to them not caring and results in complacency. There is a threat here right now and some people are not taking it serious enough that’s going to have a huge impact on how bad it is. That St Patrick’s day parade is even up for debate is the clearest sign of that and prob one of the most concerning things of our authority’s real response. It totally contradicts what they say.

Not just that, you have said it yourself that it’s a perfectly natural reaction to a threat. Telling people to calm down is actually a silly message to put out, it doesn’t address their concerns.

Telling people there are contingency plans for all scenarios is comforting. That there are already plans on what we Will do if things do get very bad. All vital services will be maintained with electricity, gas, water and food delivery provisions plans in place if they should be needed. Information on where people can read this should be available. People should be able to put their names into a volunteer section so if we require more help in different areas we have instant access to them.

This whole “we can’t panic the country” has to stop. You have to get serious and start being honest with the people so people can prepare properly. From reports in Iran and Italy I heard there was an initial panic and then things settled down after people got used to isolation or changing the way they had to live. We are taking a head in the sand approach that will lead to more panic as the virus takes hold. We have no reason to believe it’s not going to get bad here (bad for vulnerable people).

I think this “focus on stopping” panic is the wrong strategy and it’s leading to distrust as we all know that they are talking sh*te about the chances of it spreading in Ireland. This makes anybody with a bit of of idea on this more concerned because it suggests they are way out of their depth and are going to make this worse then it needs to be.

This is exactly right.

So many people call a rational response to a situation like this 'panic'. It's not panicking or being stupid to be very diligent with handwashing, avoid crowds and work from home if possible. It's what everyone should be trying to do.

I know people who almost wear it as a badge of honour that they're not doing anything differently because of coronavirus. Totally missing the point that it isn't about them, it's about not spreading it to vulnerable people. Some people seem to just have an empathy chip missing in their brain.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

But when was that flight?

I'm not sure, I read that it was the same flight that landed in Dublin where the person travelled to Belfast afterwards.

Fr_Dougal

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Correct, the re-infection legend is bull****
it's just people not having fully recovered

Shoddy journalism, Ted.

kilns

1st death in Switzerland this morning and now 100 cases.

I expect some drastic action by the federal government in the next few days

s7ryf3925pivug

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Correct, the re-infection legend is bull****
it's just people not having fully recovered

iyo.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Phoenix Wright wrote: »

Was unsure how much it counted for, but the schoolyard gossip (via my mother) also suggested that the father from that new cluster is a GP

think that has been firmly established further back in this thread and on other SM.

megabomberman

Drumpot wrote: »

Having to deliberate over the st Patrick’s day parade couldn’t be anymore “nothing to see here” action. I look at what people do, not what they say.

It’s none of your business if I choose to visit my doctor for personal concerns. You have some cheek to say that.

I'm wary, but I'm hoping it is already cancelled in the minds of the powers that be and that they are just waiting for the inevitable bad news to arrive before announcing it.

There are still plenty who believe that this is a common cold that has been whipped into a frenzy by the media/social media. Plenty still shamelessly continue to peddle such nonsense in these threads.

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Where do you see this ?? Haven't seen that reported and they are currently still saying containment and that this wont change

Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/05/coronavirus-live-updates-italy-germany-pandemic-europe-uk-us-australia-india-update-latest-news?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5e60c4a68f087df56e4c2998#block-5e60c4a68f087df56e4c2998

lainey_d_123

kilns wrote: »

1st death in Switzerland this morning and now 100 cases.

I expect some drastic action by the federal government in the next few days

Are you in Switzerland? Which canton?

I see British Airways have made the inane move of refusing to refund flights from the UK to Italy, but offering Zurich and Geneva as alternative destinations. So now people are using those airports to get to and from Italy.

Why are they allowed to get away with this? BA's greed is causing people who may have otherwise just cancelled to travel, and to spread the virus in Switzerland AND the UK.

Mic 1972

Re-infection article below. If you read it until the end you'll see that it's not reinfection, it's only people discharged who after a while tested positive again. They hadn't fully recovered

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

Babooshka

Drumpot wrote: »

I don’t have credible link (watched some source last night that I can’t verify) but one strain is supposedly worse then the other and you can get both. This would possibly explain why people are getting re-infected. Maybe somebody else here can clear this up?

No....no, probably not.Several people could probably add to it though and turn it into raging zombie strain.

Bannasidhe

England Vs Italy 6 Nations match postponed.

ChikiChiki

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

I'm not so sure I understand this, what would give us an edge?

We are an island for one. We also had a few weeks notice on the spread from looking at other countries.

The quantitative and qualitative data at hand was not utilized effectively.

*If it turns out to be true that this was a doctor who recently returned from Italy then we will be asking serious questions around containment.

quokula

the butcher wrote: »

Confirmed Cases
27th Jan China 4.4k 27th Feb Outside China 4.3k
28th Jan China 6k 28th Feb Outside China 5.3k
29th Jan China 7.7k 29th Feb Outside China 6.8k
30th Jan China 9.7k 1st March Outside China 8.5k
31st Jan China 11.2k 2nd March Outside China 10.3k
1st Feb China 14.3k 3rd March Outside China 12.7k
2nd Feb China 17.2k 4th March Outside China 14.9k

Expect that to be over 20k cases outside China by Saturday.

Really interesting to see how closely it's tracking to China, just slightly lower, despite the fact that less draconian mitigation steps have been taken. Likely due to increased knowledge of the virus now and more prepared authorities.

If it continues to track like China it will have peaked and be dropping to tiny amounts of new cases within a few weeks.

the butcher

s7ryf3925pivug

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Re-infection article below. If you read it until the end you'll see that it's not reinfection, it's only people discharged who after a while tested positive again. They hadn't fully recovered

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer/explainer-coronavirus-reappears-in-discharged-patients-raising-questions-in-containment-fight-idUSKCN20M124

The article mentions mentions multiple explanations including reinfection. They seem to accept that reinfection occurs - the question is how often.

megabomberman

quokula wrote: »

Really interesting to see how closely it's tracking to China, just slightly lower, despite the fact that less draconian mitigation steps have been taken. Likely due to increased knowledge of the virus now and more prepared authorities.

If it continues to track like China it will have peaked and be dropping to tiny amounts of new cases within a few weeks.

You mean if all European countries completely shut down in a coordinated manner and Northern Italy is completely sealed off from the rest of the world.

whisky_galore

Jesus, expert on Newstalk not advising on Paddys Day one way or the other because we would lose our culture.

Come on, "lose" our culture over 1 lousy day that can be rescheduled?