Coronavirus in Limerick City

RocketRaccoon

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Limerick's numbers in the highest again now 2 days in a row
FFS
We can't shake this off at all can we
bloody hell

Wait til you see the numbers in about 12 days. Some of the videos I saw from Sunday night were ridiculous.

RivetingRoger

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Wait til you see the numbers in about 12 days. Some of the videos I saw from Sunday night were ridiculous.

People seeing gatherings at a party etc and just assuming they will lead to cases are so misguided
Do you think the virus is like a bird flying around the place looking for somewhere to land??
Statistically its still an TINY % of people have this thing, in order for a gathering to be a spreader event, at least one person in that group has to be infected. If say there was a party with 100/200 people indoors with no ventilation, its still far far more likely that this will NOT lead to spreading that will, if you follow.

Cookiemunster

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Limerick's numbers in the highest again now 2 days in a row
FFS
We can't shake this off at all can we
bloody hell

No, they're not the highest. Smaller counties than Limerick have had higher numbers of cases over the last two days (Louth and Donegal yesterday and Kerry and Donegal the day before).

As of yesterday there are 5 counties with a higher 14 day incidence rate than Limerick.

For the umpteenth time, stop looking at the daily figures. They're meaningless out of context.

RivetingRoger

Cookiemunster wrote: »

No, they're not the highest. Smaller counties than Limerick have had higher numbers of cases over the last two days (Louth and Donegal yesterday and Kerry and Donegal the day before).

As of yesterday there are 5 counties with a higher 14 day incidence rate than Limerick.

For the umpteenth time, stop looking at the daily figures. They're meaningless out of context.

We had come out of the highest incidence rates
we had started to do really well again
Then, boom, there we are 2 days on the trot with higher numbers again
If this doesn't concern you then I dunno what to say to you
you think being 6th highest is not concerning? And, sixth but getting worse.....

Cartman78

RivetingRoger wrote: »

People seeing gatherings at a party etc and just assuming they will lead to cases are so misguided
Do you think the virus is like a bird flying around the place looking for somewhere to land??
Statistically its still an TINY % of people have this thing, in order for a gathering to be a spreader event, at least one person in that group has to be infected. If say there was a party with 100/200 people indoors with no ventilation, its still far far more likely that this will NOT lead to spreading that will, if you follow.

So what do you think is driving the increases in daily numbers then??

RivetingRoger

Cartman78 wrote: »

So what do you think is driving the increases in daily numbers then??

The tiny % of people who do carry it
The point is, if you see a large gathering, its still statistically far more likely NOT to be a spreader event than to be

breezy1985

The Leader have been coming out with some real misleading lines recently like " Increase in numbers again in Limerick"

But when you read the actual figures we had less than the day before and the incidence rate had gone down.
I know it's technically correct but if we had 30 cases Monday and 18 Tuesday and overall it was going down that isn't the right headline

Cookiemunster

RivetingRoger wrote: »

We had come out of the highest incidence rates
we had started to do really well again
Then, boom, there we are 2 days on the trot with higher numbers again
If this doesn't concern you then I dunno what to say to you
you think being 6th highest is not concerning? And, sixth but getting worse.....

Except you said we were the highest for two days in a row. That is what is known as 'fake news'.

We had a few days of not being in the top 5 mentioned counties. Now we've had a few days being mentioned again. It''s not important unless it's a trend that continues. It's way too early to call. That's why I'll continue to tell you to ignore the single day figures and watch the 14 day incidence rate.

What I honesty can't figure out is how on one hand you're getting all worked up about single days figures, then on the other telling people not to get worked up about gatherings. It seriously doesn't make sense.

RivetingRoger

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Except you said we were the highest for two days in a row. That is what is known as 'fake news'.

We had a few days of not being in the top 5 mentioned counties. Now we've had a few days being mentioned again. It''s not important unless it's a trend that continues. It's way too early to call. That's why I'll continue to tell you to ignore the single day figures and watch the 14 day incidence rate.

What I honesty can't figure out is how on one hand you're getting all worked up about single days figures, then on the other telling people not to get worked up about gatherings. It seriously doesn't make sense.

I didn't say we were the highest, I said we were in the highest, as in the one's namechecked at the daily briefings

RivetingRoger

I'm not saying not to take notice of gatherings, i am simply saying that when you see a gathering, many just assume it will lead to a spike, the actual chances that it will are minimal
I have said previously where I think/know the transmission is coming from and will come from in next week but we are not allowed say it here as we are then labelled as being all sorts and posts are deleted and threads locked

kilburn

On the gathering regardless of what the statistical situation is they shouldn't be happening and everyone involved is just a selfish twat.

Cartman78

RivetingRoger wrote: »

The tiny % of people who do carry it
The point is, if you see a large gathering, its still statistically far more likely NOT to be a spreader event than to be

I don't know how you can claim that to be honest.

To the best of my knowledge, the number of asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus is still largely unknown (?).

The only thing we can say with certainty is that the number is somewhere between 0% and 100% of the population.

So unless you test everyone present at a gathering you have absolutely zero idea what the statisical chance of getting infected is.

RivetingRoger

Cartman78 wrote: »

I don't know how you can claim that to be honest.

To the best of my knowledge, the number of asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus is still largely unknown (?).

The only thing we can say with certainty is that the number is somewhere between 0% and 100% of the population.

So unless you test everyone present at a gathering you have absolutely zero idea what the statisical chance of getting infected is.

FFS you could say the same thing about Ebola !!!

breezy1985

Cartman78 wrote: »

I don't know how you can claim that to be honest.

To the best of my knowledge, the number of asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus is still largely unknown (?).

The only thing we can say with certainty is that the number is somewhere between 0% and 100% of the population.

So unless you test everyone present at a gathering you have absolutely zero idea what the statisical chance of getting infected is.

By looking at the places that are doing random and routine testing you can get a an estimate way more accurate than 0 - 100.

kilburn

RivetingRoger wrote:

FFS you could say the same thing about Ebola !!!

Not that its Coronavirus or Limerick related but i am fairly sure noone is an asymptomatic carrier with Ebola the bleeding from the eyes and ears gives it away most Times.

Cartman78

RivetingRoger wrote: »

FFS you could say the same thing about Ebola !!!

You could but it would be total horsesh1t given the complete lack of Ebola virus in Ireland.

washman3

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Wait til you see the numbers in about 12 days. Some of the videos I saw from Sunday night were ridiculous.

Ya, they were ridiculous indeed. Hurling fans celebrating an All-Ireland win.
Did you take a moment to study the fact that they were from the 2018 celebrations.?? the ones i've seen so far were anyway.
Most likely put out there by disgruntled fans from other counties. Saw myself in one..:p along with a friend that has unfortunately since passed away.
Saw another from the Limerick dressing room, could clearly pick out Richie McCarthy, Paul Browne and Seamus Hickey. Only problem is all 3 have since retired and were nowhere near Croke Park last Sunday.
Fake news can be dangerous...!!

RivetingRoger

Cartman, I'd say you're the kinda lad who would have us all indoors till June are you?
I am only mad to go watch a race or a match and have a pint without a slightly undercooked pizza or a runny curry
Can't wait

RivetingRoger

kilburn wrote: »

Not that its Coronavirus or Limerick related but i am fairly sure noone is an asymptomatic carrier with Ebola the bleeding from the eyes and ears gives it away most Times.

Sure you would get that watching Mrs Brown's Boys John

Cartman78

breezy1985 wrote: »

By looking at the places that are doing random and routine testing you can get a an estimate way more accurate than 0 - 100.

Yes of course...I was merely trying to highlight the futility of trying to extrapolate statistical conclusions based on god knows what.

Anyway, stay safe folks

Cartman78

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Cartman, I'd say you're the kinda lad who would have us all indoors till June are you?
I am only mad to go watch a race or a match and have a pint without a slightly undercooked pizza or a runny curry
Can't wait

Not at all Roger, you should never make assumptions about anonymous people online.

Like everyone I'm sick and tired of this situation and would love to get back to normal ASAP.

But it's frustrating to watch all the hard work of recent weeks and months literally being pissed up against a wall.

banie01

The only means of judging the possibility of spread via a large gathering is to take the test positivity rate into consideration.

Nationally the positive rate is 2.7% so for every 100 people tested @3 have Covid.
That's as close to a specific infection rate as is available.

Now thats a national number, a reasonable assumption given that the national incidence rate is currently 80.2 per 100k, versus Limericks incidence rate of 141.5 (arrived at by adding the 6 regions listed for Limerick and ÷ 6) it's reasonable to assume a similar increase in the positivity rate in Limerick.

That would mean @5% of tests are positive here.
Assumption of course without knowing the regional test numbers but based on data available a fair assumption.

So 5% of Limerick folk out and about celebrating and enjoying the social side of bringing Liam home are likely positive, with many being asymptomatic..
The R rate for Covid here is currently between .9 and 1.2 with mitigation,masking and social distancing.
Without those measures the r0 is estimated at anywhere up to 4.
That's 1 person, infecting 4!

So with drunken revelry, and a positivity rate of 5% in the Limerick area?
The numbers can be assumed to rise for Xmas, its basic statistics and unfortunate.

Hopefully those asymptomatic carriers are at least masking up.
It's the easiest way to at least reduce and slow the spread.

RocketRaccoon

washman3 wrote: »

Ya, they were ridiculous indeed. Hurling fans celebrating an All-Ireland win.
Did you take a moment to study the fact that they were from the 2018 celebrations.?? the ones i've seen so far were anyway.
Most likely put out there by disgruntled fans from other counties. Saw myself in one..:p along with a friend that has unfortunately since passed away.
Saw another from the Limerick dressing room, could clearly pick out Richie McCarthy, Paul Browne and Seamus Hickey. Only problem is all 3 have since retired and were nowhere near Croke Park last Sunday.
Fake news can be dangerous...!!

I meant videos sent to me from friends who were recording themselves in pubs. I'm all for celebrating, no issue with it whatsoever but it will definitely see a spike in cases around new year.

RivetingRoger

Cartman78 wrote: »

Not at all Roger, you should never make assumptions about anonymous people online.

Like everyone I'm sick and tired of this situation and would love to get back to normal ASAP.

But it's frustrating to watch all the hard work of recent weeks and months literally being pissed up against a wall.

Yerra I was being deliberately facetious tbh Cartman

I just think people getting all worked up about "i saw a gathering" are barking up the wrong tree altogether

RivetingRoger

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

I meant videos sent to me from friends who were recording themselves in pubs. I'm all for celebrating, no issue with it whatsoever but it will definitely see a spike in cases around new year.

It absolutely won't DEFINELTY mean it atall tho
It might, absolutely, but it certainly is not a definite

RivetingRoger

banie01 wrote: »

The only means of judging the possibility of spread via a large gathering is to take the test positivity rate into consideration.

Nationally the positive rate is 2.7% so for every 100 people tested @3 have Covid.
That's as close to a specific infection rate as is available.

Now thats a national number, a reasonable assumption given that the national incidence rate is currently 80.2 per 100k, versus Limericks incidence rate of 141.5 (arrived at by adding the 6 regions listed for Limerick and ÷ 6) it's reasonable to assume a similar increase in the positivity rate in Limerick.

That would mean @5% of tests are positive here.
Assumption of course without knowing the regional test numbers but based on data available a fair assumption.

So 5% of Limerick folk out and about celebrating and enjoying the social side of bringing Liam home are likely positive, with many being asymptomatic..
The R rate for Covid here is currently between .9 and 1.2 with mitigation,masking and social distancing.
Without those measures the r0 is estimated at anywhere up to 4.
That's 1 person, infecting 4!

So with drunken revelry, and a positivity rate of 5% in the Limerick area?
The numbers can be assumed to rise for Xmas, its basic statistics and unfortunate.

Hopefully those asymptomatic carriers are at least masking up.
It's the easiest way to at least reduce and slow the spread.

Hang on a minute there lad
That's wildly inaccurate!
the 2.7% positivity, is of people who have been sent for testing ie. people who displayed symptoms
it si absolutely NOT 2.7% of the general population whatsoever

Cookiemunster

banie01 wrote: »

The only means of judging the possibility of spread via a large gathering is to take the test positivity rate into consideration.

Nationally the positive rate is 2.7% so for every 100 people tested @3 have Covid.
That's as close to a specific infection rate as is available.

Now thats a national number, a reasonable assumption given that the national incidence rate is currently 80.2 per 100k, versus Limericks incidence rate of 141.5 (arrived at by adding the 6 regions listed for Limerick and ÷ 6) it's reasonable to assume a similar increase in the positivity rate in Limerick.

That would mean @5% of tests are positive here.
Assumption of course without knowing the regional test numbers but based on data available a fair assumption.

So 5% of Limerick folk out and about celebrating and enjoying the social side of bringing Liam home are likely positive, with many being asymptomatic..
The R rate for Covid here is currently between .9 and 1.2 with mitigation,masking and social distancing.
Without those measures the r0 is estimated at anywhere up to 4.
That's 1 person, infecting 4!

So with drunken revelry, and a positivity rate of 5% in the Limerick area?
The numbers can be assumed to rise for Xmas, its basic statistics and unfortunate.

Hopefully those asymptomatic carriers are at least masking up.
It's the easiest way to at least reduce and slow the spread.

It would be more correct to look at the actual incidence figure of 128.8 from yesterdays HSPC report. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/

And that's 2.7% of tested peple who are positive. The actual percentage in the general population would be way lower.

osarusan

RivetingRoger wrote: »

The point is, if you see a large gathering, its still statistically far more likely NOT to be a spreader event than to be

But still not as good as no large gathering at all, I'm sure you agree.

banie01

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It would be more correct to look at the actual incidence figure of 128.8 from yesterdays HSPC report. https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/

And that's 2.7% of tested peple who are positive. The actual percentage in the general population would be way lower.

Can't disagree with the HSPC numbers.
As I said, my own estimate was based on the reported incidence rates by region and divided by same.

The prevalence rate is of course lower but, given we aren't getting an estimate of infected total as per UK ONS on extrapolation and survey.
It's hard to track down the rate, taking the reported incidence rate we are at 1.5 people per 1000.
That sounds immediately "safe" but it takes no account whatsoever for unreported or asymptomatic infection though.

Yes, the immediate headline number of 5% in my totting up seems hyperbolic, but without an ONS style incidence estimate it's a fair estimate of Limerick's positivity rate.
I'd argue however that given the effect that spread from asymptomatic to vulnerable or older people can have?
That taking an approach that assumes you are carrying the infection is the best way to mitigate.

By that I don't mean cloister oneself.
I mean mask, distance and handwashing and yes unfortunately limit the no essential social contacts.
Some folks see that as Draconian imposition.
I don't, it's showing a bit of care and a little respect for people I care about.
It has gone on too long for many, but we are 6/7 months away from the end of it.

The argument by some that social events can't be considered spreading or superspreading?
Even in Limerick/Clare the outbreaks associated with sports clubs and parties would fly in the face of that.
It's far safer to assume that "your" the spreader and take it just a bit easier and be considerate.

MarkR

More off topic chat. More stuff that should be left to personal messages. More blaming travelers. I struggle to see the point of this thread. It's not limerick specific, or at least it doesn't stay that way. I've banned a user for a week from this forum for blaming travelers again for the virus.

If someone has a good reason for this train wreck of a thread to remain open, let me, or one of the other moderators know. Failing that, I think it's been done to death.