Coronavirus (COVID-19)

timsey tiger

cantalach wrote: »

Regarding median vs average, here's an example I always use to illustrate the usefulness of median. It's a bit contrived but it gets the point across.


Imagine there's a street with 9 very small, single story, terraced cottages which are valued at €200k each. At the end of the cul de sac behind a high wall is the manor house valued at €2.2M.


The total value of all 10 houses on the street is €4M so the average value is €400k. Although mathematically correct, this isn't very representative of a typical house on the street. It paints a very false picture.


But the median value of a house on the street is €200k. It tells you the typical house by taking out the outliers. Statisticians and engineers (like me) love it.

Do engineers "love it"?

There is a plane, due to take off, it has 50 passengers. The passengers consist solely of couples with young children.

The pilot is worried about the weight limits, now which do you want, your beloved median or the not very representative mean?

timsey tiger

Ludo wrote: »

I don't think that is what median means. I thought it is the point where half the number of cases are above the age and have the number of cases are below the age.

If the cases were aged

5, 54, 55, 74, 80, 82, 85

Then by my definition of median, it is 74. By Gaspodes it would be 45 which is incorrect I believe.
The average would be 62 which is really skewed downward by the one 5 in there so this is why they don't use average age.

What is interesting, is what they are trying to do with the stats provided. I suspect they haven't taught about it too much.

I would imagine that the death figures are highly negatively skewed, as very few people live into their 90s and beyond.

If they used the average, the half of the sample above the median are not too far from it, while those below have scope to be far younger. Like the reverse of the 10 houses example earlier, the mean age could be a lot younger.

Using the median reinforces the perception that it is an old persons disease, while the average would cause more concern among younger cohorts.

In the situation we currently are in where we are worried about the lack of compliance with social distancing etc. I don't think much of the choice.

timsey tiger

Worztron wrote: »

Regarding the 2km walk zone limit from peoples homes. I presume that if someone drove to a park/country walk area that was over 2km from home -- that'd this walk would be disallowed?

But if a government body, the council have the car-park open, how could it be illegal?

The council are a disgrace, having playgrounds open well after schools were closed ffs.

They should close these car-parks as well as all they are doing is facilitating people in breaking the law.

If it is reasonable for people to drive to parks to exercise then the law is a stupid law and should be amended. But one or the other.

People who can't walk up-to two km should most likely be cocooned anyway.

Oafley Jones

timsey tiger wrote: »

What is interesting, is what they are trying to do with the stats provided. I suspect they haven't taught about it too much.

I would imagine that the death figures are highly negatively skewed, as very few people live into their 90s and beyond.

If they used the average, the half of the sample above the median are not too far from it, while those below have scope to be far younger. Like the reverse of the 10 houses example earlier, the mean age could be a lot younger.

Using the median reinforces the perception that it is an old persons disease, while the average would cause more concern among younger cohorts.

In the situation we currently are in where we are worried about the lack of compliance with social distancing etc. I don't think much of the choice.

Using ****ty statistics to create a false narrative for messaging purposes is an odd and self defeating exercise. Although, it’s not as odd as your pilot example above.

Ludo

I'm pretty sure they have it more thought than anyone here. They give a truer reflection as indeed more victims are elderly. If they deliberately tried to skew it younger they would be called out on that also and people would stop listening if they thought they were being dishonest.

Ludo

timsey tiger wrote: »

Do engineers "love it"?

There is a plane, due to take off, it has 50 passengers. The passengers consist solely of couples with young children.

The pilot is worried about the weight limits, now which do you want, your beloved median or the not very representative mean?

You are gonna have to explain that one to me. I don't understand what it has to do with anything.

Oafley Jones

Ludo wrote: »

You are gonna have to explain that one to me. I don't understand what it has to do with anything.

It’s a head scratcher alright.

the beer revolu

timsey tiger wrote: »

But if a government body, the council have the car-park open, how could it be illegal?
.

People could live within 2k of said wood/park/etc

Pen Rua

the beer revolu wrote: »

The amount of couples shopping together is bugging the sh1te out of me.
Why are they being allowed in together?

Paul St Tesco were asking that only one of the couple go in to shop, and the other waits outside.

the beer revolu

Pen Rua wrote: »

Paul St Tesco were asking that only one of the couple go in to shop, and the other waits outside.

That's a new development.
Lidl, Cornmarket Street, were allowed pairs in to shop.

corks finest

Pen Rua wrote: »

Paul St Tesco were asking that only one of the couple go in to shop, and the other waits outside.

Loads of couples in SuperValu Carrigaline,and also lines up outside Lidl/ Dunnes an hour ago

timsey tiger

Oafley Jones wrote: »

Using ****ty statistics to create a false narrative for messaging purposes is an odd and self defeating exercise. Although, it’s not as odd as your pilot example above.

It is not false, the mean, mode and median are all averages.

One has to be careful when picking which one to use given the situation. Using the mode gives a higher average age for deaths. Why was this one picked? Was it to as you say, to "artificially" show a higher average age.

There is nothing odd about the pilot example. There should be no "love" for one statistic over another. The example is just to emphasis the point that there are situations where the mean is the appropriate choice and that the median is not always the appropriate one to use.

timsey tiger

the beer revolu wrote: »

People could live within 2k of said wood/park/etc

Of course they could, or they could live 10km or 50km from the park.

If you are less than 2km to park you could walk there in less than 12mins.

the beer revolu

timsey tiger wrote: »

Of course they could, or they could live 10km or 50km from the park.

If you are less than 2km to park you could walk there in less than 12mins.

I have no idea what point you are trying to make.

timsey tiger

Ludo wrote: »

You are gonna have to explain that one to me. I don't understand what it has to do with anything.

Say the children all "weight" 13kg and 26 of the passengers are kids and the remaining 24 passengers, the adults, all weigh 60kg.

The total "weight" of the passengers is then 26*13kg+24*60kg = 1,778kg.

In this example the mean (what is normally known as the average) weight is 35.56kg

While the median weight is 13kg as more than half the passengers are kids.

If all you know is the number of passengers and one of the mean or median, then the mean is useful as you can get back the total "weight". 35.56kg*50 = 1,778kg.

Trying to use the median gives 13kg*50=650kg.

I was just answering an earlier poster who claimed engineers love the median. This imo is just plain silly. There should be no love for statistics, they are our tools and the appropriate one for the job at hand should be used.

I don't think that the median is the appropriate one to use in the current context. Primarily because most people don't know what it is. I would prefer if they didn't report an average age and instead used a plot to show the spread of the ages.

timsey tiger

the beer revolu wrote: »

I have no idea what point you are trying to make.

Keeping the carparks open, encourages people to break our current law not to travel more than 2km from your home to exercise.

Other counties are closing carparks to discourage this behavour.

Oafley Jones

timsey tiger wrote: »

Say the children all "weight" 13kg and 26 of the passengers are kids and the remaining 24 passengers, the adults, all weigh 60kg.

The total "weight" of the passengers is then 26*13kg+24*60kg = 1,778kg.

In this example the mean (what is normally known as the average) weight is 35.56kg

While the median weight is 13kg as more than half the passengers are kids.

If all you know is the number of passengers and one of the mean or median, then the mean is useful as you can get back the total "weight". 35.56kg*50 = 1,778kg.

Trying to use the median gives 13kg*50=650kg.

I was just answering an earlier poster who claimed engineers love the median. This imo is just plain silly. There should be no love for statistics, they are our tools and the appropriate one for the job at hand should be used.

I don't think that the median is the appropriate one to use in the current context. Primarily because most people don't know what it is. I would prefer if they didn't report an average age and instead used a plot to show the spread of the ages.

You’ve no idea what you’re talking about. Of course median mean etc are all valid, you just don’t understand where they need to be most appropriately applied. You’re arguing against basic logic and appropriate application. You’re aircraft example is utterly bizarre as well. It just reinforces that you don’t understand their application at the most fundamental level.

timsey tiger

Oafley Jones wrote: »

You’ve no idea what you’re talking about. Of course median mean etc are all valid, you just don’t understand where they need to be most appropriately applied. You’re arguing against basic logic and appropriate application. You’re aircraft example is utterly bizarre as well. It just reinforces that you don’t understand their application at the most fundamental level.

So, what are you suggesting, that the mean is not the appropriate one to use in the airplane example?

How am I arguing against "basic logic?

You are the one here making the ad hominen attacks instead of backing up your argument with reasoned debate.

.red.

So the weight of kids on a plane, has something to do with an old man catching the virus, at a park that's 3km from his house because he drove there?

corks finest

timsey tiger wrote: »

Keeping the carparks open, encourages people to break our current law not to travel more than 2km from your home to exercise.

Other counties are closing carparks to discourage this behavour.

Great point

timsey tiger

.red. wrote: »

So the weight of kids on a plane, has something to do with an old man catching the virus, at a park that's 3km from his house because he drove there?

Nice, two different discussions there.

You mustn't have a reasoned answer to either, if this is what you resort to.

RINO87

.red. wrote: »

So the weight of kids on a plane, has something to do with an old man catching the virus, at a park that's 3km from his house because he drove there?

Isn't it obvious he didn't drive there. He was on a PLANE ffs!

Ludo

timsey tiger wrote: »

So, what are you suggesting, that the mean is not the appropriate one to use in the airplane example?

How am I arguing against "basic logic?

You are the one here making the ad hominen attacks instead of backing up your argument with reasoned debate.

I don't see how mean or median apply in the airplane example to be honest as you have said what you are trying to achieve. What information are you looking for or trying to convey with the given data?

timsey tiger

The airplane example was to explain that, the mean and median are both useful, what is important is picking the right one for the job at hand.

A pilot will need to know her/his overall load at take off. If you have the mean passenger "weight" and the number of passers you can estimate this. If you have the median and number of passengers you cannot reliably.

I was countering an earlier example about house prices, which showed the median to be more appropriate. I was trying to point out the fact that being appropriate in one instance does not make it appropriate in all instances.

I suspect that if the mean age were reported instead of the median it would be lower.

Somebody has decided to report the median and not the mean, I am interested in their reasoning.

Neither the original example or mine, are directly related to the epidemic.

I would prefer if, they produced a bar chart or a histogram of the numbers of deaths vs age and generally a lot more information esp. around the numbers tested.

JP Liz V1

Any idea what's Cork hospitals ICU like at present?

Alex86Eire

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Any idea what's Cork hospitals ICU like at present?

Heard from a doctor in the CUH last Sunday that they had 6 in ICU and the Mercy had 1. A lot could have happened in the previous week obviously.

corks finest

Alex86Eire wrote: »

Heard from a doctor in the CUH last Sunday that they had 6 in ICU and the Mercy had 1. A lot could have happened in the previous week obviously.

Buddies aged aunt died in the the Northside ,sad but her son returned from Thailand,picked up something was put in an induced coma before she passed,and only learned of her passing when he was revived, awful, supposed to be a lovely lady aswell ,he's obviously destroyed , saddest thing I've heard since covid began

Hangdogroad

With the reduced footfall in the City centre beggars and junkies are starting to get a lot more in your face. Oliver Plunket St in particular seems to be particularly dodgy. Very large groups of beggars, some quite aggressive.

sporina

Hangdogroad wrote: »

With the reduced footfall in the City centre beggars and junkies are starting to get a lot more in your face. Oliver Plunket St in particular seems to be particularly dodgy. Very large groups of beggars, some quite aggressive.

noticed this a few weeks ago - esp around Daunt Square - paul street..

i wonder is it because they are not allowed to hang out in hostels etc anymore either? due to social distancing? heard something on the radio about a lot of them only getting breakfast - then they have to get out - not sure though..
but I am wondering why they are so obvious now also - are they hanging around town more or is it that they are just more obvious as there are less people around?
in any event I feel sorry for them - the guards are flat out patrolling them

TheChizler

Anyone notice the smell in town the last week? Went for a walk a couple of evenings as I live close by and it was just awful, like before the main drainage scheme.

I did come across a couple of people openly pi55ing on Patrick St so maybe that and the heat had something to do with it.