Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Cork Lass

388 in Cork today

JP Liz V1

60 Deaths
3,231 Cases
931 are in Dublin, 388 in Cork, 238 in Louth, 155 in Waterford, 151 in Limerick and the remaining 1,368 cases are spread across all other counties

ACitizenErased

Week ago we had 6000-8000 cases per day, today we have 3000, half the positivity rate and stabilising hospitalisations yet the CMO has the gall to tell people 'it isnt happening fast enough'.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Week ago we had 6000-8000 cases per day, today we have 3000, half the positivity rate and stabilising hospitalisations yet the CMO has the gall to tell people 'it isnt happening fast enough'.

Stabilising? Its still increasing with large death rates.

Christmas was a disaster, let's hope lockdown fatigue doesn't cause another rise

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Stabilising? Its still increasing with large death rates.

Christmas was a disaster, let's hope lockdown fatigue doesn't cause another rise

Growth rate in hospitals is down from 11% per day for the last 3 weeks to less than 1% per day.
Latest update on the COVID hub for today is 115 admissions and 136 discharges, a net decrease.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Growth rate in hospitals is down from 11% per day for the last 3 weeks to less than 1% per day.
Latest update on the COVID hub for today is 115 admissions and 136 discharges, a net decrease.

Which is positive, however using percentages glosses over the reality, if we kept going at 10% a day we would have over 250 net increase per day, the lockdown curbed it. But the admissions are still huge. If the lockdown wasn't taking effect I would be very worried.

What worries me is 3231 on the 16th Jan, if people were going by the guidelines from the 1st jan then how is this possible.

Also the hospital numbers are higher than yesterday so that does confuse me, do they use confirmed covid cases when being admitted and then add post hospital admission positive rated to the total figure with using it as admissions

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Which is positive, however using percentages glosses over the reality, if we kept going at 10% a day we would have over 250 net increase per day, the lockdown curbed it. But the admissions are still huge. If the lockdown wasn't taking effect I would be very worried.

What worries me is 3231 on the 16th Jan, if people were going by the guidelines from the 1st jan then how is this possible.

Also the hospital numbers are higher than yesterday so that does confuse me, do they use confirmed covid cases when being admitted and then add post hospital admission positive rated to the total figure with using it as admissions

How is it not possible? If 6000 people were testing positive on 1 day last week they may have 2 contacts each. That's 12000 more cases. It's fairly obvious that we won't be seeing dramatic decreases until the contacts filter through.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How is it not possible? If 6000 people were testing positive on 1 day last week they may have 2 contacts each. That's 12000 more cases. It's fairly obvious that we won't be seeing dramatic decreases until the contacts filter through.

Point being people werent following guidelines, figures should have been trending down by mid last week if guidelines were followed or last Wednesday whichever way you class last week

I thought they weren't testing close contacts only people with symptoms

ofcork

Mother got tested yesterday came back negative today tg,very very few checkpoints this time around too.

ofcork

ofcork wrote: »

Mother got tested yesterday came back negative today tg.

Good news, stay safe

ACitizenErased

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Point being people werent following guidelines, figures should have been trending down by mid last week if guidelines were followed or last Wednesday whichever way you class last week

Following guidelines won’t stop contacts who were already exposed from getting the virus. Expecting cases to plummet or drop significantly more than they already have is very naive.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Following guidelines won’t stop contacts who were already exposed from getting the virus. Expecting cases to plummet or drop significantly more than they already have is very naive.

So when are you expecting a drop, we probably don't have the real case numbers as the asymptomatic are not being tested as they aren't showing symptoms and we are relying on people restricting movements if in contact with a confirmed case

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

So when are you expecting a drop, we probably don't have the real case numbers as the asymptomatic are not being tested as they aren't showing symptoms and we are relying on people restricting movements if in contact with a confirmed case

I would expect us to be around the 1.5-2k mark by end of January followed by a steady 5-10% per week drop as vaccinations pick up.
Anything lower than that would be a major major bonus.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would expect us to be around the 1.5-2k mark by end of January followed by a steady 5-10% per week drop as vaccinations pick up.
Anything lower than that would be a major major bonus.

Kind of along my thinking so, don't see us out of level 5 till after paddys day, can only consider if cases are below 100 a day and a significant portion has been vaccinated

seefin

Been a while since checked in here. Cant believe some of the usual suspects are still pontificating as if they know it all, despite been proven wrong so many times now. Misplaced optimism is partly responsible for our current situation.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

Kind of along my thinking so, don't see us out of level 5 till after paddys day, can only consider if cases are below 100 a day and a significant portion has been vaccinated

I would expect us to be completely back to normality by June tbh

ACitizenErased

seefin wrote: »

Been a while since checked in here. Cant believe some of the usual suspects are still pontificating as if they know it all, despite been proven wrong so many times now. Misplaced optimism is partly responsible for our current situation.

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

ACitizenErased

Now for some more optimism for the doomers
https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1350485346279108610?s=20

Ludo

Optimism is great. And we are heading in the right direction which is also great. But that is only because of the measures in place. Let's not undermine them by giving mixed messages about those measures and saying or implying that ignoring some of them, as you see fit, is acceptable.

As that tweet also says...#holdfirm

Chuck Noland

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would expect us to be completely back to normality by June tbh

That would be fantastic

corks finest

Chuck Noland wrote: »

That would be fantastic

Hopefully

mean gene

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would expect us to be completely back to normality by June tbh

how is that remotely possible

igCorcaigh

Just letting some words out, but I have been feeling really downbeat today about this whole thing.

I'm thinking about all these variants popping up, thinking about how maybe the vaccines may become nearly useless, and how any new vaccine will then take months to roll out.

Sure, flu needs a new vaccine every year, but flu is seasonal.
What if we can't keep up with the vaccines, and people's immunity fades, so that the virus can infect over and over again.

It could be with us forever, a constant source of illness and death, just one of those things...

I dunno. Just not feeling great about our situation, one year in to this bloody thing

Ludo

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would expect us to be completely back to normality by June tbh

Not a chance to be honest. Absolutely no way.
There will be still a large section of the population who will not have received the vaccine by then. Travel will still be disrupted as a result. Most places will be open hopefully but I would be amazed if there are not level 2/3 restrictions still in place til around august/sept.

Hope I am wrong but just can't see it. Not being a doomer saying this. Just a realist I believe.

corks finest

ofcork wrote: »

Mother got tested yesterday came back negative today tg,very very few checkpoints this time around too.

Plenty of checkpoints not all static this time, brother drives to w Cork daily innishannon, Bandon and a few other places gardai haven't left, Ballinhassig permanent one gone, but regularly on the way to Roberts cove and Myrtleville, Bandon garda HQ hit bad but still they've a decent presence in our roads thank God

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

So when are you expecting a drop, we probably don't have the real case numbers as the asymptomatic are not being tested as they aren't showing symptoms and we are relying on people restricting movements if in contact with a confirmed case

Deleted User wrote: »

Kind of along my thinking so, don't see us out of level 5 till after paddys day, can only consider if cases are below 100 a day and a significant portion has been vaccinated

As you point out close contacts aren't being tested currently. If we get down to 1.5k cases/day that would suggest testing capacity so they should than resume testing close contacts..... Thatll put figures up but it's the correct thing to do.

AFAIK folk don't get the PUP unless they have medical docs so loads won't isolate currently I fear.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I would expect us to be completely back to normality by June tbh

Completely back to normal by Jan 2022 would be doing very well IMO.

Government spiel from Leo 'we would anticipate that social distancing - along with restrictions on gatherings - will remain in place for many months yet, probably into the Summer and Autumn, unfortunately. It's going to be a slow reopening with the ability to halt or reverse that, if needs be," he said.'

https://www.corkbeo.ie/news/ireland-reopening-timeline-leo-varadkar-19631377

Perhaps by completely back to normal you mean still with social distancing & no electric picnic etc etc

Ludo

Ludo wrote: »

Optimism is great. And we are heading in the right direction which is also great. But that is only because of the measures in place. Let's not undermine them by giving mixed messages about those measures and saying or implying that ignoring some of them, as you see fit, is acceptable.

As that tweet also says...#holdfirm

Also those numbers are extrapulated from the current positive cases which dont include loads of close contacts.

ACitizenErased

mean gene wrote: »

how is that remotely possible

Why would we have restrictions if the vulnerable are protected?

JP Liz V1

ofcork wrote: »

Mother got tested yesterday came back negative today tg,very very few checkpoints this time around too.

That's great news

A few takeaways and restaurants seem to be closing over positive case(s) better to be safer

saabsaab

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

That's great news

A few takeaways and restaurants seem to be closing over positive case(s) better to be safer

It would be hard to get it from a take away.