Coronavirus (COVID-19)

ACitizenErased

Just to back up what I said earlier about being back to normal by Summer, here's some data based on Donnelly's vaccination delivery schedule. Take note that this is likely an underestimate, and chances are we'll have more than 1 million done by this time. It shows that with 1 million people vaccinated by April, 99% of deaths are prevented. Not sure how anyone can justify restrictions after that.
https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1350386621741469697?s=20

Pen Rua

saabsaab wrote: »

It would be hard to get it from a take away.

One would assume they are closing to protect their staff. Agreed the risk of contracting the virus from piping hot food is lesser but not zero.

Chuck Noland

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Just to back up what I said earlier about being back to normal by Summer, here's some data based on Donnelly's vaccination delivery schedule. Take note that this is likely an underestimate, and chances are we'll have more than 1 million done by this time. It shows that with 1 million people vaccinated by April, 99% of deaths are prevented. Not sure how anyone can justify restrictions after that.
https://twitter.com/IrishDataViz/status/1350386621741469697?s=20

As always spot on again ACE!

ACitizenErased

Chuck Noland wrote: »

As always spot on again ACE!

Nah man, I'm shooting blind optimism clearly, completely unfounded by data. You know me, etc.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nah man, I'm shooting blind optimism clearly, completely unfounded by data. You know me, etc.

1 positivity is if we get to 1 million vaccinated that should drop the R number significantly.

MrDerp

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Just to back up what I said earlier about being back to normal by Summer, here's some data based on Donnelly's vaccination delivery schedule. Take note that this is likely an underestimate, and chances are we'll have more than 1 million done by this time. It shows that with 1 million people vaccinated by April, 99% of deaths are prevented. Not sure how anyone can justify restrictions after that[/url]

The typical goal of vaccination is herd immunity and a reduction of transmission in a community where outbreaks occur, not shielding the elderly/vulnerable.

It’s also important to remember what’s stated - 95% effective in preventing serious illness. It doesn’t mean you can’t get it and spread it, and the more virus that’s around, the more likely it mutates into something nastier (or indeed, more benign)

There’s unlikely to be a victory day in the summer where we all go out to the pub like we’ve won Italia 90 - and trust me, I’ll be there not acting my age. We’ll be at something like level 2 with cautious balance this summer.

Cork2021

There is some people who want this to continue indefinitely! ACE is optimistic, I’m optimistic we’ll have at least level 1 for the majority of summer and fully open come the start of October.
I said yesterday in a different thread, COVID is seasonal! We’ve got hammered since the middle of September and peaking just as the flu does annually in December/January and early February.
COVID was in this country well before our first confirmed case at the end of last February.
And flu is non existent this year. Covid has overtaken it!!

JP Liz V1

saabsaab wrote: »

It would be hard to get it from a take away.

Maybe a staff member positive

ACitizenErased

MrDerp wrote: »

The typical goal of vaccination is herd immunity and a reduction of transmission in a community where outbreaks occur, not shielding the elderly/vulnerable.

It’s also important to remember what’s stated - 95% effective in preventing serious illness. It doesn’t mean you can’t get it and spread it, and the more virus that’s around, the more likely it mutates into something nastier (or indeed, more benign)

There’s unlikely to be a victory day in the summer where we all go out to the pub like we’ve won Italia 90 - and trust me, I’ll be there not acting my age. We’ll be at something like level 2 with cautious balance this summer.

Early Israeli evidence suggests transmission is heavily heavily decreased by just miniscule vaccinations. Pfizer agree with the data.

Chuck Noland

Chuck Noland wrote: »

As always spot on again ACE!

We will have to see what restrictions are still in place in June before its evident who is spot on.

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

There is some people who want this to continue indefinitely! ACE is optimistic, I’m optimistic we’ll have at least level 1 for the majority of summer and fully open come the start of October.
I said yesterday in a different thread, COVID is seasonal! We’ve got hammered since the middle of September and peaking just as the flu does annually in December/January and early February.
COVID was in this country well before our first confirmed case at the end of last February.
And flu is non existent this year. Covid has overtaken it!!

Flu is non existent as over 1 million got vaccinated in addition to masks, social distance and sanitisers which def suppress it.

If the vaccines work, we will have normality by Xmas.

Charles Babbage

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Nah man, I'm shooting blind optimism clearly, completely unfounded by data. You know me, etc.

The only other relevant data is the rate of hospitalisation and long Covid illness among those groups who typically do not die.

Covid somewhat seasonal, but only to a very limited extent, it is not like flu. Lots of people died in Florida in August when flu would have been almost non existent.

Cork Lass

Cork2021 wrote: »

There is some people who want this to continue indefinitely! ACE is optimistic, I’m optimistic we’ll have at least level 1 for the majority of summer and fully open come the start of October.
I said yesterday in a different thread, COVID is seasonal! We’ve got hammered since the middle of September and peaking just as the flu does annually in December/January and early February.
COVID was in this country well before our first confirmed case at the end of last February.
And flu is non existent this year. Covid has overtaken it!!

My daughters are convinced they had COVID in Dec 2019. They were incredibly sick and my husband was very sick too. I was unwell for about a week but nowhere near as bad as them. If I’m honest I agree with them.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

....we will have normality by Xmas.

Yes, that's realistic.
Lots of vulnerable folk in the under 50 age categories that don't have an underlying condition as such but they smoke, are overweight, are not in great health etc.

MrDerp

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Early Israeli evidence suggests transmission is heavily heavily decreased by just miniscule vaccinations. Pfizer agree with the data.

Minuscule number of vaccinations? Or minuscule amount?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-third-lockdown-what-you-need-to-know/
https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/10/jerusalem-s-streets-lie-empty-as-israel-enters-third-coronavirus-lockdown

But yes, if we do both:
1. Targeted vaccinations of high vector people (i.e critical workers) and those in care
2. Restrictions for those not in those categories

Then we can greatly reduce numbers of people with the virus during the summer in anticipation of further easing. But it must be both.

There are also other economic realities like:
1. Having thousands of people out sick with non fatal covid
2. our need to allow travel and not be locked out of travel corridors. Letting the virus run rampant because we think we’ve vaccinated anyone that’s more likely to die won’t afford us travel.

So yes, social distancing and home working will still be a thing, and pubs will still be under restrictions. But it may be different. I predict level 2, and maybe some flurries with level 1, but with level 3 equally possible because there will be more foreign travel be sure of it..

MrDerp

Cork2021 wrote: »

There is some people who want this to continue indefinitely! ACE is optimistic, I’m optimistic we’ll have at least level 1 for the majority of summer and fully open come the start of October.
I said yesterday in a different thread, COVID is seasonal! We’ve got hammered since the middle of September and peaking just as the flu does annually in December/January and early February.
COVID was in this country well before our first confirmed case at the end of last February.
And flu is non existent this year. Covid has overtaken it!!

Covid is not seasonal:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Look at the summer wave in the US last year, and drill down in particular on the ‘sunshine belt’ states of Florida, Texas and California, as well as Georgia and other states, and look at the cases and deaths that spiked the US nationally to over 1000/day again.

Then google the stories about defiant opening of bars, look at the images of pool parties etc.

If you can catch covid in Florida in August you can catch it in Cork city centre.

There will be pubs and restaurants this summer, but it will feel like last summer only we’ll be far more optimistic that things are going in the right direction as opposed to dreading another winter of lockdown. In other words, we should be far less likely to have future Level 5s from that point, it we’ll be getting 3s when we take the p**s

Ludo

Cork2021 wrote: »

There is some people who want this to continue indefinitely!

There really isn't and this type of hyperbole really doesn't help a discussion. Everything you said after it became worthless because of it.

ACitizenErased

Latest hospital update
152 in CUH, no change on yesterday. 14 in ICU, no change.
46 in Mercy, increase of 1. 6 in ICU, no change.

fin12

Cork Lass wrote: »

My daughters are convinced they had COVID in Dec 2019. They were incredibly sick and my husband was very sick too. I was unwell for about a week but nowhere near as bad as them. If I’m honest I agree with them.

I did have a flu/ cold last December (2019) that did seem to last a lot longer than usual but I also never take antibiotics when fighting a cold. Just squeezed orange, honey and hot water.

MrDerp

MrDerp wrote: »

Covid is not seasonal:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Look at the summer wave in the US last year, and drill down in particular on the ‘sunshine belt’ states of Florida, Texas and California, as well as Georgia and other states, and look at the cases and deaths that spiked the US nationally to over 1000/day again.

Then google the stories about defiant opening of bars, look at the images of pool parties etc.

If you can catch covid in Florida in August you can catch it in Cork city centre.

There will be pubs and restaurants this summer, but it will feel like last summer only we’ll be far more optimistic that things are going in the right direction as opposed to dreading another winter of lockdown. In other words, we should be far less likely to have future Level 5s from that point, it we’ll be getting 3s when we take the p**s

Also south Africa surging and there at the height of summer

fin12

Deleted User wrote: »

Also south Africa surging and there at the height of summer

But they have that variant.

the beer revolu

I think what people are forgetting is that while having zero deaths will be a wonderful outcome, this is a virus that no one should be flippant about catching The consequences appear very unpredictable and not just for the vulnerable. I'm not in a vulnerable group and, apart from the anxiety of giving it to my 91 year old mother, I wouldn't like to take my chances with this pretty unknown fcuker.
It will take a long time for people behaviour to fully change, I suspect. This is with us for a while to come.

On another note, aren't we all getting very fractious, and isn't it any wonder?
Take care everyone.

ACitizenErased

Agree it's very edgy here tonight

fin12

the beer revolu wrote: »

I think what people are forgetting is that while having zero deaths will be a wonderful outcome, this is a virus that no one should be flippant about catching The consequences appear very unpredictable and not just for the vulnerable. I'm not in a vulnerable group and, apart from the anxiety of giving it to my 91 year old mother, I wouldn't like to take my chances with this pretty unknown fcuker.
It will take a long time for people behaviour to fully change, I suspect. This is with us for a while to come.

On another note, aren't we all getting very fractious, and isn't it any wonder?
Take care everyone.

Ya I read where some can have permanent scarring on their lungs, worse than a smokers lung.

Also losing ur sense of taste and smell and some cases still has t returned. I was told someone living near me had it a couple and she can only taste metal or something.

the beer revolu

fin12 wrote: »

Ya I read where some can have permanent scarring on their lungs, worse than a smokers lung.

Also losing ur sense of taste and smell and some cases still has t returned. I was told someone living near me had it a couple and she can only taste metal or something.

Lots of verified cases of weird stuff.
So as not to be fear mongering, yes, for most people in non vulnerable groups, the illness is not very serious or long lasting but it's still a scary, new fcuker that I won't be dicing with if I can help it. (and I truly miss my local pubs and eateries)

corks finest

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Early Israeli evidence suggests transmission is heavily heavily decreased by just miniscule vaccinations. Pfizer agree with the data.

All for that positiveness

fin12

fin12 wrote: »

But they have that variant.

They do but it proves that this virus is not seasonal and can mutate

Chuck Noland

I know there’s more then a few in this thread will be annoyed at good news but here’s some for ye so ye might want to keep scrolling

https://twitter.com/riochtconor2/status/1350736600242786305?s=21

Chuck Noland

Chuck Noland wrote: »

I know there’s more then a few in this thread will be annoyed at good news but here’s some for ye so ye might want to keep scrolling

https://twitter.com/riochtconor2/status/1350736600242786305?s=21

Doubt people will be annoyed with good news, we all want normality but we need to be realistic too

Mardyke

Chuck Noland wrote: »

I know there’s more then a few in this thread will be annoyed at good news but here’s some for ye so ye might want to keep scrolling

https://twitter.com/riochtconor2/status/1350736600242786305?s=21

I haven't been following this thread, but curious why people would not want good news??