Coronavirus (COVID-19)

the beer revolu

fin12 wrote: »

Is there a checkpoint in Castlemarytr?

On occasion.

JP Liz V1

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

We are in lockdown but still high cases and Cork on the up

It's looking like mid May before non essential retail, personal services (Hairdressers etc) and later again for hospitality now.

Until all folk that are vulnerable to this are vaccinated you can see why really as the numbers aren't going down fast enough unfortunately....... fair few folk under 65 have found themselves hospitalised over Covid.
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/detailed-profile-of-cases

TheDriver

The amount of people I know around Cork that are basically depressed, gone into reserve mode. People barely communicate etc, just locked in their houses, spending every evening watching TV.
It's quite scary and I fear what will happen.

ACitizenErased

COVID-19 14-day incidence rates per 100,000 population by Local Electoral Area (LEA), Cork 23/02/2021 to 08/03/2021

Bandon-Kinsale - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 24 (-24), LEA rate per 100k pop: 54 (-64)

Bantry-West Cork - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 5 (-14), LEA rate per 100k pop: 22 (-63)

Carrigaline - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 12 (-3), LEA rate per 100k pop: 34 (-9)

Cobh - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 13 (-4), LEA rate per 100k pop: 38 (-12)

Cork City North East - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 49 (+18), LEA rate per 100k pop: 116 (+42)

Cork City North West - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 22 (+2), LEA rate per 100k pop: 55 (+5)

Cork City South Central - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 26 (-19), LEA rate per 100k pop: 67 (-49)

Cork City South East - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 14 (-13), LEA rate per 100k pop: 33 (-30)

Cork City South West - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 14 (-7), LEA rate per 100k pop: 30 (-15)

Fermoy - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 39 (+9), LEA rate per 100k pop: 82 (+24)

Kanturk - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 7 (-5), LEA rate per 100k pop: 28 (-20)

Macroom - Confirmed Cases in LEA: <5 (-), LEA rate per 100k pop: <5 (-)

Mallow - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 35 (-4), LEA rate per 100k pop: 120 (-14)

Midleton - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 34 (+11), LEA rate per 100k pop: 74 (+24)

Skibbereen-West Cork - Confirmed Cases in LEA: 7 (-1), LEA rate per 100k pop: 23 (-3)




As numbers decrease we are now starting to see more sensitivty to increased cases, allowing us to pinpoint outbreak regions. As shown above, Midleton, Fermoy and the northside of Cork City all with increases in the last 7 days.

ACitizenErased

20 cases in Cork today

saabsaab

TheDriver wrote: »

The amount of people I know around Cork that are basically depressed, gone into reserve mode. People barely communicate etc, just locked in their houses, spending every evening watching TV.
It's quite scary and I fear what will happen.

What do you fear will happen? Genuine question as I see us coming out of this soon.

KrustyUCC

ACitizenErased wrote: »

20 cases in Cork today

Good to see a decrease from yesterday

ACitizenErased

As discussed by posters on here in the last few days, this is becoming ridiculously regional at this stage. 5 counties (Dublin, Meath, Donegal, Kildare, Galway) accounting for 400 cases while the other 21 counties have 190, an average of 9 each.

sunbabe08

ACitizenErased wrote: »

As discussed by posters on here in the last few days, this is becoming ridiculously regional at this stage. 5 counties (Dublin, Meath, Donegal, Kildare, Galway) accounting for 400 cases will the other 21 counties have 190, an average of 9 each.

i agree. for the sake of our mental health the counties that are behaving themselves should rewarded some how.

TheDriver

saabsaab wrote: »

What do you fear will happen? Genuine question as I see us coming out of this soon.

People becoming very introverted, scared to look at each other, not socialise etc.

lawrencesummers

TheDriver wrote: »

People becoming very introverted, scared to look at each other, not socialise etc.

That’s a snowflake on the tip of the iceberg there.


Suicides.
Missed medical diagnosis that will lead to unnecessary deaths
Domestic abuse increases.
Some horrific murders in the last few months.

Try quantifying that and seeing which is going to have more of an impact.

ACitizenErased

lawrencesummers wrote: »

That’s a snowflake on the tip of the iceberg there.


Suicides.
Missed medical diagnosis that will lead to unnecessary deaths
Domestic abuse increases.
Some horrific murders in the last few months.

Try quantifying that and seeing which is going to have more of an impact.

I'm aware of two suicides in my locality within the last three months. And by locality I mean a couple of trees, 500m from my house. Both were struggling in the lockdown based on what I heard.

TheDriver

lawrencesummers wrote: »

That’s a snowflake on the tip of the iceberg there.


Suicides.
Missed medical diagnosis that will lead to unnecessary deaths
Domestic abuse increases.
Some horrific murders in the last few months.

Try quantifying that and seeing which is going to have more of an impact.

Why dismiss one in relation to the other? Is general depression not acceptable unless it ends in a harsh manner?

questionmark?

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i agree. for the sake of our mental health the counties that are behaving themselves should rewarded some how.

Agreed. When you look at the 14 day rate per 100k population in say Cork, Kerry or Leitrim for example, it seems mad that its still illegal to leave your house for anything bar a defined essential reason or to exercise within 5km of your home. Not saying open pubs yet but there should be something even click and collect for shops or 20km limit. Anything, something to lift people but staying safe.

JP Liz V1

ACitizenErased wrote: »

As discussed by posters on here in the last few days, this is becoming ridiculously regional at this stage. 5 counties (Dublin, Meath, Donegal, Kildare, Galway) accounting for 400 cases while the other 21 counties have 190, an average of 9 each.

It is a shame everywhere suffers because of Dublin this lockdown restrictions has hit many people very hard, maybe they could consider provinces reopening gradually for inter county province travel so Cork could travel to other Munster counties etc.,

lawrencesummers

TheDriver wrote: »

Why dismiss one in relation to the other? Is general depression not acceptable unless it ends in a harsh manner?

I didn’t dismiss anything, I said that the problem is far bigger than you alluded to.

When I say quantify the level of Suicides etc and compare its impact, I meant compare its impact to the consequences of the Virus.

the beer revolu

There is no credible information that I am aware of that indicates a rise in suicide due to the pandemic.

Widdensushi

the beer revolu wrote: »

There is no credible information that I am aware of that indicates a rise in suicide due to the pandemic.

How can we measure the impact this isolation will have on children as they get older?

JP Liz V1

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It is a shame everywhere suffers because of Dublin this lockdown restrictions has hit many people very hard, maybe they could consider provinces reopening gradually for inter county province travel so Cork could travel to other Munster counties etc.,

Limerick isn't great either. There's covid outside of Dublin

I'm in favour of regional restrictions and easing restrictions etc etc etc I reckon by mid May we will be in a much better place, 2 months.

Pen Rua

the beer revolu wrote: »

There is no credible information that I am aware of that indicates a rise in suicide due to the pandemic.

Conscious the topic of this post might be sensitive to some; just to note we're discussing suicide & the determination of same

This was fact checked by The Journal.ie back in September when one of those FB rumours whe around that there were 33 suicides in a week.

https://www.thejournal.ie/suicide-ireland-august-claim-33-deaths-factcheck-5192698-Sep2020/

In sum, to be classed a suicide it must be ruled so through a lengthy investigation. There's minimum 2 weeks notice to the next of kin, but the inquest can't take place until 6 weeks after the person's death. HSE comments it typically takes at least 6 months beginning to end. A pathologist report is required, 3 months. An inquest has to take place, involving files, reports, statements... With COVID, they are already restricted in what can be done in terms of people in a room for an inquest etc. CSO reports on numbers, but this is after sometime. The HSE does not report on numbers.

Critically, The Journal.ie state it is typically 2 years between a death occurring by suicide and it being included in official CSO statistics.

Provisional numbers for 2019 were published in May 2020.

The Journal.ie concludes it is unproven. There may be a rise in suicides, sadly, however right now we have no evidence regarding same. We may have provisional evidence in 2021 re 2020, but this isn't guaranteed considering the process takes 6 months in normal times, not even to consider COVID times.

lawrencesummers

the beer revolu wrote: »

There is no credible information that I am aware of that indicates a rise in suicide due to the pandemic.

As was explained above the data is not there to determine if it is the case or not.

What I’m saying is that we should be looking for the Data and analyse it

Some data like suicides might not be finalised for some time, but preliminary data should be sought, while other data is readily available

The rise in people waiting on medical examinations is frightening, the rise in domestic violence has been documented.

What I’m saying is that nobody is looking at the ‘hidden’ or consequential effects of this lockdown and balancing them up.

the beer revolu

Widdensushi wrote: »

How can we measure the impact this isolation will have on children as they get older?

I don't know.
Do you have any ideas?

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

...........

What I’m saying is that nobody is looking at the ‘hidden’ or consequential effects of this lockdown and balancing them up.

I'm sure all of that is being considered tbh. Folk were saying the same pre Dec. January and Feb and even now showed how that went.
The vaccines are the way out......... it'll be another while before all over 70s and the vulnerable are vaccinated. A couple of months......... hold tough until then.
That's the situation the government have put us in after liaising with public health folk etc etc.


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-592-cases-10-additional-deaths-1094679.html

"Prof Nolan said there remains "a high risk of a surge in the unvaccinated population", but added the incidence of the virus in healthcare settings has reduced considerably."

To be fair if covid takes off again in the community it'll be the unvaccinated over 70s and the folk with underlying conditions will be in most danger, I can see the merit in waiting another two months.

lawrencesummers

Augeo wrote: »

I'm sure all of that is being considered tbh. Folk were saying the same pre Dec. January and Feb and even now showed how that went.
The vaccines are the way out......... it'll be another while before all over 70s and the vulnerable are vaccinated. A couple of months......... hold tough until then.
That's the situation the government have put us in after liaising with public health folk etc etc.


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-592-cases-10-additional-deaths-1094679.html

"Prof Nolan said there remains "a high risk of a surge in the unvaccinated population", but added the incidence of the virus in healthcare settings has reduced considerably."

To be fair if covid takes off again in the community it'll be the unvaccinated over 70s and the folk with underlying conditions will be in most danger, I can see the merit in waiting another two months.

Ive no issue waiting, but it’s clear as day that the other issues within the general health service are not being addressed with anything like the urgency they require.

There is no talk of using private hospitals for public patient scanning, there isnontalk of increased resources to mental health.

When this pandemic is over there won’t be anything like the urgency required to get waiting lists down, to roll out mental health services that are required.

That’s the pity.

mean gene

High risk when you have 20 odd cases in cork is horse sh1t -anything other than getting rid of the 5km to travel within your own county is a failure from this inept conservative government

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

..................

There is no talk of using private hospitals for public patient scanning........That’s the pity.

Private hospitals are likely quite busy looking after private patients.

lawrencesummers wrote: »

.................. there isnontalk of increased resources to mental health. .........That’s the pity.

Yes, mental health is like housing........ huge problem.
There will likely be an improved public health service post Covid as the pandemic has shown what can be done when the shoulder is really to the wheel. And the shoulder should be to the wheel all of the time in that business.

lawrencesummers wrote: »

..................When this pandemic is over there won’t be anything like the urgency required to get waiting lists down, to roll out mental health services that are required.

That’s the pity.

For serious issues there will always be waiting lists. Urgency is essentially funding ......... the HSE has proven to be a tad wasteful despite lots of funding. Hopefully that will change. Time will tell.

We need to get over the pandemic in the first instance and that looks like happeninf in the very near future, thanks to the vaccines.

mean gene

mean gene wrote: »

High risk when you have 20 odd cases in cork is horse sh1t -anything other than getting rid of the 5km to travel within your own county is a failure from this inept conservative government

I'd be inclined to take Nolan's view on the matter rather than yours tbh....... "Prof Nolan said there remains "a high risk of a surge in the unvaccinated population"

NeuralNetwork

There’s going to be a COVID legacy issue for probably the next decade in health. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see life expectancy dropping not just in Ireland but in a lot of countries because of lack of normal access to healthcare.

The unfortunate realities though are that this is a direct impact of COVID-19. Opening health facilities as normal hasn’t been possible. The vaccination of hospital staff and the most vulnerable will obviously help, but every aspect of those services has been slowed down due to the needs to control a highly infectious virus. Simple tasks are requiring PPE and deep cleaning in ways they never did before and when you add that up it’s a big burden and everything takes significantly longer.

I don’t think things like ICU capacity made all that much difference. We didn’t ever exceed ours even after Christmas. We should improve capacity, but it will always be finite in any system as you’re simply not going to keep empty, staffed ICU beds on standby for a once in a century event.

The biggest issue we will face is a more general one. A lot of procedures have been piling up into backlogs in a system that was always overwhelmed and had unacceptable waiting lists. There are going to be consequences to this no matter what way we look at it.

NeuralNetwork

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

................

The unfortunate realities though are that this is a direct impact of COVID-19. .............

Indeed, folk will sh1te on about how it's because of how COVID-19 was dealt with though........... we'll be listening them for years. The yellow vests etc will never get their head around what happened and why it happened, why it had to happen once the pandemic hit.

NeuralNetwork

Augeo wrote: »

Indeed, folk will sh1te on about how it's because of how COVID-19 was dealt with though........... we'll be listening them for years. The yellow vests etc will never get their head around what happened and why it happened, why it had to happen once the pandemic hit.

There’s a confluence of issues, but the pre pandemic health system mess isn’t going to get better without major reorganisation and correctly targeted investment, and I just don’t see that happening. I mean just take locally into Cork - it urgently needs a new major hospital to focus on electives, probably to incorporate the South Infirmary & Mercy. We’ve had rapidly growing populations with health planning that’s reacting too slowly and always behind.

The reality of the pandemic though is we are dealing with what amounts to a somewhat intangible natural disaster and the legacy of it will take probably the best part of a decade to resolve.

Ireland isn’t in the worst position, not by a long shot, because of the economic mix and what is currently a relatively low debt to GDP level which is still allowing us to finance things. The Eurozone membership may also pay off, as it provides way more headroom for stimulus. In a smaller or even medium currency the risks are enormous.

I just think though we're headed for potentially very bumpy times and there isn’t really any precedent for this. Is also compounded by the fiasco of Brexit politics in the U.K. turning supply chains upside down and inside out and a lot of that has been masked by the pandemic disruption. There’s an economic reckoning yet to be felt on that. You just can’t do what’s been done there without real world consequences and that isn’t just political talk.

What we do on policy here has an impact but the broader EU, US, UK and global impacts are going to mean a hell of a lot to how we recover.

If our trade partners bounce back, all will be looking fairly ok but if this tilts into a global recession or depression or even a regional one, there’s a big problem.

Being realistic about this, I think we will see some degree of normality restoring in 2021 but the world isn’t going to look like it did in 2019 anytime soon. Even on the vaccination front, we are fired up about being slower than the U.K. but the reality is the programme here isn’t that slow, and has a big resource behind it and access to supplies. Many other countries, including places like Canada and even Japan are even further behind on rollout and don’t have access to those supply chains.

So I think realistically you’re looking at probably 2022 and even 2023 before things start to look and feel fully normal again and the economics are going to be down to a mixture of policy (largely for us at EU level) and financial market and consumer sentiment as the months roll on.