Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

_Brian

Water John wrote: »

Things would probably be loosened gradually. I wouldn't be looking at any thing less then the end of May or into June.
Another point is if there will be a viable option of testing for antigens, then those that have had it and cured could go back to work. UK seem to be actively looking at this option.

Wonder how long would immunity last, 3-9 weeks is what I read elsewhere. People get the flu over and over, it may not be the silver bullet people think.

Mooooo

_Brian wrote: »

Wonder how long would immunity last, 3-9 weeks is what I read elsewhere. People get the flu over and over, it may not be the silver bullet people think.

Depends on how fast the virus would change or adapt. New versions of the flu appear every year, that's why the jab may not always work against it as a new vaccine must be developed to include whatever strains. If covid 19 doesn't change very fast those with antibodies should have a bit of immunity. That's why some think this may become an annual virus if it adapts with vaccines required every year to deal with it

Dakota Dan

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

The crazy thing is it is still spreading as we speak. From what I have seen people are not keeping the safe distance. Older people are, younger people are not.

They are both age groups that are not keeping their distance, had an ould lad outside a shop today looking for a drive home but it wasn’t in my direction, I’d imagine he was waiting a while.

Water John

Coronavirus doesn't rapidly mutate like flu, so the second round should be the same bug, unlike flu where the second wave can be more deadly. This is from what I've read.

yosemitesam1

Water John wrote: »

Things would probably be loosened gradually. I wouldn't be looking at any thing less then the end of May or into June.
Another point is if there will be a viable option of testing for antigens, then those that have had it and cured could go back to work. UK seem to be actively looking at this option.

It will be very interesting to see what they find in the UK when they start looking for antibodies over the next few weeks.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic

patsy_mccabe

You cannot have a policy of herd immunity for a virus that is killing 16% of those infected. Statistically that's fairly accurate now ( over 135,000 cases). The only viable option is to kill the virus by social isolation. The virus cannot survive if it cannot pass on to another person. It will simply just die away.

yosemitesam1

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

You cannot have a policy of herd immunity for a virus that is killing 16% of those infected. Statistically that's fairly accurate now ( over 135,000 cases). The only viable option is to kill the virus by social isolation. The virus cannot survive if it cannot pass on to another person. It will simply just die away.

https://swprs.org/

Worth having a look on this, the Swiss propaganda research project. There's food for thought on it

Bass Reeves

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

You cannot have a policy of herd immunity for a virus that is killing 16% of those infected. Statistically that's fairly accurate now ( over 135,000 cases). The only viable option is to kill the virus by social isolation. The virus cannot survive if it cannot pass on to another person. It will simply just die away.

You could do that if every country did/had done it from the start. However a lot countries in South America and Africa will only let it run through the population. Then you have rogue states like the US and UK who government's fail to take the disease serious. That means that other countries need to manage there way to some sort of immunity in the population.

Take it we completely wipe it out by late May, as do countries like France Germany and Italy and Spain have it eliminated/controlled by then as weetc, what do we do then let US and UK tourists, how do we trade with Africa. Will a truck driver that take a truck load of meat to the UK have to self isolate when he comes home

It is not killing 16%of people, most countries are just not testing so we have.no idea of there true infection rate. In a controlled situation the death rate is running at 0.5% in uncontrolled it may be running at 2-5% but we will not truly know until we see final figures from Africa and South America, and the results of the social/economic experiment in the US and UK

patsy_mccabe

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://swprs.org/

Worth having a look on this, the Swiss propaganda research project. There's food for thought on it

Is this what you are referring to?:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

The low death rate in Germany says a lot. Definitely something there. Only 206 deaths and 3,547 recovered. That's 5.5%, low by comparison to other countries. Still high though.

Castlekeeper

I saw this on twitter , it seems nettle tea may have something to offer.

yosemitesam1

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Is this what you are referring to?:
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

The low death rate in Germany says a lot. Definitely something there. Only 206 deaths and 3,547 recovered. That's 5.5%, low by comparison to other countries. Still high though.

Yes, there's so much information there. Don't think that everything the media is telling us is 100% correct. When the UK gets going with antibody testing over the coming days/weeks, they'll be the only numbers worth taking into account to judge the virus. Infection numbers at this stage don't mean much.

Jjameson

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

You cannot have a policy of herd immunity for a virus that is killing 16% of those infected. Statistically that's fairly accurate now ( over 135,000 cases). The only viable option is to kill the virus by social isolation. The virus cannot survive if it cannot pass on to another person. It will simply just die away.

To be crude (as is my way!). This may be a bit like myxo in rabbits, it’s never going to die away without a vaccine? If absolutely everyone doesn’t get immunity it is going to return periodically for years and years.

Jjameson

Castlekeeper wrote: »

I saw this on twitter , it seems nettle tea may have something to offer.

The sup of whiskey doesn’t do any harm either.. that’s my excuse! Can’t find where I read it but it’s there I swear.

BENDYBINN

Jjameson wrote: »

To be crude (as is my way!). This may be a bit like myxo in rabbits, it’s never going to die away without a vaccine? If absolutely everyone doesn’t get immunity it is going to return periodically for years and years.

The Spanish flu in 1918 disappeared as fast as it came.....there is Hope.

Mooooo

BENDYBINN wrote: »

The Spanish flu in 1918 disappeared as fast as it came.....there is Hope.

It evolved to a different strain to survive as it was killing it's hosts. Killed anywhere from 50 to 100 million worldwide.

20silkcut

BENDYBINN wrote: »

The Spanish flu in 1918 disappeared as fast as it came.....there is Hope.

It lasted until 1920 I believe. Hard to believe that all that went on in Ireland at that time the 1918 election the first dail, the war of independence, the Black and Tans all occurred during a pandemic worse than this one.
Social distancing or catching the virus was the least of any ones worries at that time.

Castlekeeper

20silkcut wrote: »

It lasted until 1920 I believe. Hard to believe that all that went on in Ireland at that time the 1918 election the first dail, the war of independence, the Black and Tans all occurred during a pandemic worse than this one.
Social distancing or catching the virus was the least of any ones worries at that time.

I would disagree completely, mother, children and old people carried from the two families of our house, from different regions. That flu was far more serious and took a lot more lives than the political shenanigans of the time, which were no more than an inconvenience to most.

20silkcut

Castlekeeper wrote: »

I would disagree completely, mother, children and old people carried from the two families of our house, from different regions. That flu was far more serious and took a lot more lives than the political shenanigans of the time, which were no more than an inconvenience to most.

The Black and Tans were killing people indiscriminately and martial law was declared in a lot of counties. I’m pretty sure it was more than an inconvenience.
Maybe the worst of the pandemic had passed by 1920. But 1918/19 was the height of it. And the war started in early 1919.

bogman_bass

The flying Columns did a good job of lying low and staying away from people

Castlekeeper

20silkcut wrote: »

The Black and Tans were killing people indiscriminately and martial law was declared in a lot of counties. I’m pretty sure it was more than an inconvenience.
Maybe the worst of the pandemic had passed by 1920. But 1918/19 was the height of it. And the war started in early 1919.

"...to most"

The black and tans weren't up to much around here anyway, and the civil war mainly comprised of lads with nothing much else to be doing, according to my grandfather who lived through it.
According to this account
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/lifestyle/features/the-deadly-trail-of-the-spanish-flu-through-ireland-in-1918-868857.html

800,000 caught it with 23,000 deaths.

The war of independence and the civil war accounted for about 2000 each, the vast majority young male combatants.
WW1 accounted for about 50,000 Irish deaths but these were very unevenly distributed throughout the country.

The difference with the flu was you didn't have to go looking for trouble to get it.

greysides

Just a slight reminder, lots of leeway being given, but a bit less chat please, otherwise it's too hard to find the updates.

greysides

Open again, sorry 'about that delay.

Water John

The 10 deaths today is worrying and it's still in its early phase.

_Brian

Ten deaths today is shocking to hear but to be expected.

Remember, these people would have been infected back days before we implement any controls. We can expect more Grimm days before we can expect to see our social distancing work take effect in lowering the numbers.

Fingers crossed we can minimise the toll.

whelan2

The average age of the deaths is 79.

_Brian

Tony Houlihan is doing a cracking ongoing job. He really gives confidence that they are on top of things.
Calm, even, sticks to the facts and isn’t put off by journalists asking why are sometimes stupid questions at such a tough time. He and his team must be exhausted, and it’s early days yet.

Water John

For a whole public service that is essentially designed not to make fast and possibly rash decisions, they have really stepped up. From getting all the testing centres up and running to the labs. So many other areas as well.

greysides

A bit long but there are a few interesting tit-bits contained within.



ECDC Rapid Risk Assessment
Date: Wed 25 Mar 2020
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) Rapid Risk Assessment [abridged, edited]
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-seventh-update-Outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-COVID-19.pdf


Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK -- 7th update, 25 Mar 2020. Stockholm: ECDC; 2020

---

Executive summary

---

As of [25 Mar 2020], more than 416 916 cases of COVID-19 were reported worldwide by more than 150 countries. An increasing proportion of global cases are from EU/EEA countries and the UK. As of [25 Mar 2020], 204 930 cases and 11 810 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK. The number of reported COVID-19 cases is rapidly increasing in all EU/EEA countries and the UK, and the notification rate is increasing at similar trajectory as was observed in Hubei province in late January/early February [2020] and in Italy in late February/early March [2020].

Clinical presentations of COVID-19 range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia; severe disease can lead to death. In EU/EEA countries with available data, 30% of diagnosed COVID-19 cases were hospitalised and 4% had severe illness. Hospitalisation rates were higher for those aged 60 years and above. Estimates of crude case-fatality for Germany, Italy and Spain showed that both the risk and absolute numbers of deaths rapidly increased with age for those aged 60 years and above in each country. Among hospitalised cases, severe illness was reported in 15% of cases, and death occurred in 12% of these cases, with higher case-fatality rates in older adults.

Risk assessment

---

In the present situation where COVID-19 is rapidly spreading in Europe, the current assessment is:
- The risk of severe disease associated with COVID-19 for people in the EU/EEA and the UK is currently considered moderate for the general population and very high for older adults and individuals with chronic underlying conditions.
- The risk of occurrence of widespread national community transmission of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK in the coming weeks is moderate if effective mitigation measures are in place and very high if insufficient mitigation measures are in place.
- The risk of healthcare system capacity being exceeded in the EU/EEA and the UK in the coming weeks is considered high.

Measures taken at this stage should ultimately aim at protecting the most vulnerable population groups from severe illness and fatal outcome by reducing transmission in the general population and enabling the reinforcement of healthcare systems. Given the current epidemiology and risk assessment, and the expected developments in the next days to few weeks, the following public health measures to reduce further spread and mitigate the impact of the pandemic should be applied in EU/EEA countries [available at the source URL above].

The main developments since the [12 Mar 2020] risk assessment can be summarised as follows:
- All EU/EEA countries and more than 150 countries worldwide are affected.
- While early in the outbreak most cases were reported in China; since [12 Mar 2020], 63% of the reported global cases have been from EU/EEA countries and the UK.
- Overall since the start of the pandemic in the EU/EEA and the UK and since [25 Mar 2020], 204 930 cases and 11 810 deaths have been reported. Italy, Spain, Germany and France represent 34% (n=69 176), 19% (n=39 673), 15% (n=31 554) and 11% (n=22 302) of all EU/EEA cases, respectively. Italy and Spain represent 58% (n=6 820) and 23% (n=2 696) of the fatalities in the EU/EEA, respectively.
- The 14-day cumulative incidence rate of COVID-19, a measure of the prevalence of active cases in the population, is 36.1 per 100 000 population in the EU/EEA as of [25 Mar 2020], ranging from low rates of 2.2 in Hungary and 2.3 in Poland to 97.7 per 100 000 in Italy, and more than 100 per 100 000 in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg (Annex 3). All EU/EEA countries and the UK report increased numbers of cases and increased rates since [12 Mar 2020]. The large growth in the 14-days cumulative notification rate observed in EU/EEA countries like Luxembourg, Iceland, and Lichtenstein is due to the small size of their population (Figures 1 and 2 [figures and annexes available at the source URL above].
- Assuming stable testing policies and no effect of mitigation measures, the EU/EEA and the United Kingdom is predicted to reach 100 COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population (the Hubei scenario) between the end of March [2020] and mid-April [2020] (Figures A and B, Annex 2).
- In Italy, after the peak on [21 Mar 2020] when 6557 new cases were reported, the number of new cases reported daily appears to be decreasing. This appears to have occurred roughly 2 weeks after control measures (stay-at-home restrictions) were implemented, first in northern Italy [9 Mar 2020] and then in the whole country [11 Mar 2020].
- Reports from some healthcare facilities in northern Italy indicate that intensive care capacity has been exceeded due to the high volume of patients requiring ventilation. Other EU areas with a large number of reported cases may experience the same challenges.

COVID-19: symptoms, severity, and case fatality:

---

By [24 Mar 2020], 50 569 laboratory-confirmed cases have been reported to the European Surveillance System (TESSy). Information on symptoms was available for 14 011 cases from 13 countries, mainly (97%) from Germany. Among these cases, the most commonly reported clinical symptom was fever (47%), dry or productive cough (25%), sore throat (16%), general weakness (6%) and pain (5%). The frequency of these symptoms differs notably from those reported from China [8] and is summarised in the 6th update of ECDC's Rapid Risk Assessment. Data on cases reported more recently to TESSy may be biased toward the more seriously ill because national policies have shifted focus towards testing of more severe cases.

Preliminary estimates of severity were based on the analysis of data from EU/EEA countries and the UK available in TESSy and online country reports (for countries whose data was incomplete or missing in TESSy).

Among all cases:
- Hospitalisation occurred in 30% (13 122 of 43 438) of cases reported from 17 countries (median country specific estimate, interquartile range (IQR): 24%, 11-41%)
- Severe illness (requiring ICU and/or respiratory support) accounted for 2 179 of 49 282 (4%) cases from 16 countries (median, IQR: 3%, 2-8%).

Among hospitalised cases:
- Severe illness was reported in 15% (1 894 of 12 961) of hospitalised cases from 15 countries (median, IQR: 16%, 10-24%).
- Death occurred in 1 457 of 12 551 (12%) hospitalised cases from eight countries (median, IQR: 10%, 6- 14%). Age-specific hospitalisation rates among all cases based on TESSy data showed elevated risk among those aged 60 years and above (Figure 3).

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[This risk assessment is one of the most comprehensive presentations of the current base of knowledge on the SARS-CoV-2 and its associated disease -- COVID-19. I highly recommend interested parties go to the source URL and read the assessment in its entirety. - Mod.MPP]

greysides

From the link above:

Immunity: It is too early to know how long the protective immune response against SARS-CoV2 will last, as this
will require longitudinal serological studies that follow patients’ immunity over an extended period of time [60].
Evidence from other coronavirus infections (SARS and MERS) indicates that immunity may last for up to three
years and re-infection with the same strain of seasonal circulating coronavirus is highly unlikely in the same or
following season. This could also hold true for SARS-CoV2 as there is emerging evidence from early studies
suggesting that that individuals develop antibodies after infection and are likely to be immune from reinfection in
the short term.

****

Social distancing measures are effective at reducing viral transmission and they should be implemented wherever
there is a risk of wider community transmission. The earlier the measures are implemented, the greater the
reduction in the number of cases. It is estimated that if a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including
social distancing, had been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in China, the number of
COVID-19 cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, while also significantly reducing
the number of affected areas.

Water John

I think a lady on Prime time said we have 2,000 ventilators. We had about 500 ICU beds so hospitals are upscaling in a big way. May peak here in Mid April.