Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

Base price

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

An antibody survey conducted in a German town. 14% of people tested had coronavirus antibodies and an estimated fatality rate of 0.37%, we are getting closer to a flu mortality rate the more research such as this is carried out.

I was listening to a immunologist on the radio today and he said the problem with the antibody test is there isn't enough available that is 100% accurate/tested. There is no point using one that is 98% accurate.

yosemitesam1

Base price wrote: »

I was listening to a immunologist on the radio today and he said the problem with the antibody test is there isn't enough available that is 100% accurate/tested. There is no point using one that is 98% accurate.

The current virus test is by no means 100% accurate either but what antibody testing does do is build a much clearer picture of how the virus has behaved so far.
The current testing doesn't tell very much information.

alps

Water John wrote: »

Some posters are great at looking in the rear view mirror and saying, I told you so, about the low numbers, relative to the early models.
We didn't know much of how the virus behaved 3 months ago. Those who believed and implemented the precautionary principle, have fared best. That's the simple fact.

We knew exactly how the virus behaves before it arrived here...many looking in the rear view mirror told you so back then too..

Mooooo

There are feck all tests 100% accurate. And half the stuff medicine can treat was found by accident anyway. My own stuff for epilepsy was only found as it was used as a solvent in experiments and it was observed the effect common to all of them was caused by it.
Having the answers now is all well and good but what was the alternative. Saying people die anyway isn't an option, are we to treat people like an old crook cow, let her off to the factory once she needs extra care? It has caused issues in other countries and what we are doing is trying to prevent it.
I'm not saying we can't question why and I myself don't agree with all they've done but everyone of us here would do everything, and probably has done, in our power to keep a loved one alive. All well and good saying someone may die anyway until it's your parent, grand parent, wife or husband etc stuck in the middle of it. Hypothetical is grand till **** is real

Say my name

This was posted on Twitter so make what you will.

"Over 50% of Coronavirus deaths in Ireland have been from nursing homes".

Seems like there should be some explanation given if true.
If that's the case they'd nearly be better at home. The very least they'd have loved ones and family around if the worst did come upon them and maybe perhaps they mightnt be at the same risk of picking it up.
But then there might be no way of minding them at home.

Terrible situation.

greysides

This Is How Your Immune System Reacts to Coronavirus..

..most coronavirus-related deaths are due to the immune system going haywire in its response, not damage caused by the virus itself.

https://elemental.medium.com/this-is-how-your-immune-system-reacts-to-coronavirus-cbf5271e530e


Coronavirus Might Attack the Brain, Too

The cells with the right receptors for SARS-CoV-2 are found extensively in the lungs, Rao tells Elemental, explaining why breathing problems are common in severe Covid-19 cases. But those receptors are also found in blood vessels in the blood-brain barrier and in nerve endings, he explains.
“It is definitely possible that the nervous system is being invaded through these means,” Rao says.

https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-might-attack-the-brain-too-21ea92a39c04

yosemitesam1

Mooooo wrote: »

There are feck all tests 100% accurate. And half the stuff medicine can treat was found by accident anyway. My own stuff for epilepsy was only found as it was used as a solvent in experiments and it was observed the effect common to all of them was caused by it.
Having the answers now is all well and good but what was the alternative. Saying people die anyway isn't an option, are we to treat people like an old crook cow, let her off to the factory once she needs extra care? It has caused issues in other countries and what we are doing is trying to prevent it.
I'm not saying we can't question why and I myself don't agree with all they've done but everyone of us here would do everything, and probably has done, in our power to keep a loved one alive. All well and good saying someone may die anyway until it's your parent, grand parent, wife or husband etc stuck in the middle of it. Hypothetical is grand till **** is real

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/health-and-social-care-spending-cuts-linked-to-120000-excess-deaths-in-england/

€30 billion in extra health funding could have reduced the death's by 154,000 in the UK between 2015-2020.
By comparison these restrictions will have cost us €20 billion quite easily by the end of the year. Assuming we could get similar value for money as the UK, 5 times as many deaths could have been prevented as lockdowns are in theory protecting.
Much more likely we will all have loved ones more affected by the future health spending cuts than current coronavirus...

_Brian

Say my name wrote: »

This was posted on Twitter so make what you will.

"Over 50% of Coronavirus deaths in Ireland have been from nursing homes".

Seems like there should be some explanation given if true.
If that's the case they'd nearly be better at home. The very least they'd have loved ones and family around if the worst did come upon them and maybe perhaps they mightnt be at the same risk of picking it up.
But then there might be no way of minding them at home.

Terrible situation.

What explanation is needed.

From the very, very beginning this has always been warmed as a disease that is devastating to the old and infirm, that’s exactly who you find in nursing homes.

Spread within is inevitable due to the close quarters work of caring for them.

With visitors banned for so long it is only staff who can have brought this in. And remember these are nearly all private nursing homes, for profit enterprises and are responsible for implementing their own procedures.

They can’t be brought home because of risk of spread, once it’s in a home all residents will need to be kept there

yosemitesam1

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

https://m.huffingtonpost.es/2017/01/13/gripe-colapso-hospitales_n_14135402.html

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia/2017/01/12/58767cb4268e3e1f448b459a.html

https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/el-hospital-madrileno-de-la-paz-colapsado-los-sindicatos-llevan-a-la-justicia-la-eliminacion-de-camas-video_201903195c90fbcf0cf2877038852c8e.html

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2015/01/13/madrid/1421182112_975809.html

https://www.redaccionmedica.com/secciones/enfermeria/enfermeria-denuncia-saturacion-y-colapso-por-la-gripe-en-11-ccaa-1765

Is this actually the first time that hospitals have been under pressure? In addition to some hospitals being busy they're also down on staff numbers compared to what they should have.

_Brian

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronaca/18_gennaio_10/milano-terapie-intensive-collasso-l-influenza-gia-48-malati-gravi-molte-operazioni-rinviate-c9dc43a6-f5d1-11e7-9b06-fe054c3be5b2.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

https://m.huffingtonpost.es/2017/01/13/gripe-colapso-hospitales_n_14135402.html

https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia/2017/01/12/58767cb4268e3e1f448b459a.html

https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/el-hospital-madrileno-de-la-paz-colapsado-los-sindicatos-llevan-a-la-justicia-la-eliminacion-de-camas-video_201903195c90fbcf0cf2877038852c8e.html

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2015/01/13/madrid/1421182112_975809.html

https://www.redaccionmedica.com/secciones/enfermeria/enfermeria-denuncia-saturacion-y-colapso-por-la-gripe-en-11-ccaa-1765

Is this actually the first time that hospitals have been under pressure? In addition to some hospitals being busy they're also down on staff numbers compared to what they should have.

Hospitals run by having a broad spectrum of beds available for the various types of patients they see, it would only include very small numbers of ICU beds.

The danger with this current challenge is the potential shear volume of one type of patient all needing the same specialised care of ICU and ventilators.

Our local hospital had 5 bed icu capacity which was extended in various ways to 21, currently running at its initial capacity of 4-6 over last few weeks, as are near all Irish hospital.

It’s the potential avalanche of identical patients that is the risk of overrunning limited capacity.

patsy_mccabe

Young people are definitely not isolating. I see it here where I live. Passing in tractors together etc. Jeez, how many times do they need to be told. :mad:

_Brian

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/health-and-social-care-spending-cuts-linked-to-120000-excess-deaths-in-england/

€30 billion in extra health funding could have reduced the death's by 154,000 in the UK between 2015-2020.
By comparison these restrictions will have cost us €20 billion quite easily by the end of the year. Assuming we could get similar value for money as the UK, 5 times as many deaths could have been prevented as lockdowns are in theory protecting.
Much more likely we will all have loved ones more affected by the future health spending cuts than current coronavirus...

What exactly is your angle on this?

Are you just one of the anti government left and going out of your way to find obscure information that if twisted in certain ways makes the current path seem questionable.

Are you a full time conspiracy follower

I’m really struggling to think someone believes that this virus should be just let burn through the population, we’re seeing examples of places where containment is lost and death rates are running at near 10%, do you think we should just themrow 10% of the population under a bus to save money ??

It’s refined that the U.K. death rates are 50-100% under reported, so their real death rate is probably 1500-2000 a day at present.

If we’d followed their trajectory we could be looking at 100-200 deaths a day here maybe more.

Honestly I tried blocking your posts but I keep seeing them in replies people make and think wow, how can a post be so careless about just letting people die so we could save money.

zetecescort

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Young people are definitely not isolating. I see it here where I live. Passing in tractors together etc. Jeez, how many times do they need to be told. :mad:

Now that the exams are off or postponed expect it to get worse

patsy_mccabe

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Young people are definitely not isolating. I see it here where I live. Passing in tractors together etc. Jeez, how many times do they need to be told. :mad:

As a parent I say fine the parents. Soon sharpen them up. They know well whether little Johnny can be trusted or whether he will act the gob****e.

yosemitesam1

_Brian wrote: »

What exactly is your angle on this?

Are you just one of the anti government left and going out of your way to find obscure information that if twisted in certain ways makes the current path seem questionable.

Are you a full time conspiracy follower

I’m really struggling to think someone believes that this virus should be just let burn through the population, we’re seeing examples of places where containment is lost and death rates are running at near 10%, do you think we should just themrow 10% of the population under a bus to save money ??

It’s refined that the U.K. death rates are 50-100% under reported, so their real death rate is probably 1500-2000 a day at present.

If we’d followed their trajectory we could be looking at 100-200 deaths a day here maybe more.

Honestly I tried blocking your posts but I keep seeing them in replies people make and think wow, how can a post be so careless about just letting people die so we could save money.

We are in a clusterfcuk of epic proportions and continue to dig ourselves deeper into the hole when the severity of the virus has been constantly revised downwards.
It has infected many more people than the official numbers suggest and far too much faith is put in "experts" who don't realise that the "numbers" are nowhere near reliable.

I've no time for conspiracys, there is a completely different side to this story that isn't being told.

This virus isn't killing 10% of infected people anywhere. Ten percent of positive tested people dying might have been recorded but that is with the backdrop of only a select minority of total infected being tested and not all coronavirus deaths are people dying because of the virus. These are FACTS not conspiracy theories.
The best estimates so far are of a death rate of between 0.37-0.55% for people infected with coronavirus. If this is to be compared equally with the flu mortality rate of 0.1%, they have to be compared in the same way. The flu death rate isn't dying with the flu, it's dying because of the flu. So to give a real comparison the total coronavirus deaths would have to be revised downwards which will give a mortality rate not vastly different to the flu.

We are destroying the economy with the restrictions, so where are the jobs and taxes going to come from to fund saving lives in the future. Please give an answer.
It's too easy to dismiss not blowing massive money on this but it is a FACT that we have limited resources and spending our money today means less money to save lives tomorrow.
So are you really saying saving lives today is more important than saving lives tomorrow?
And that's before we allow for the FACT that more lives can be saved for the same money in the future.
So am I fcuked up for thinking that maximising the use of our resources to improve/save the maximum amount of lives over the coming years is more important than panicking now?

paddysdream

_Brian wrote: »

What exactly is your angle on this?

Are you just one of the anti government left and going out of your way to find obscure information that if twisted in certain ways makes the current path seem questionable.

Are you a full time conspiracy follower

I’m really struggling to think someone believes that this virus should be just let burn through the population, we’re seeing examples of places where containment is lost and death rates are running at near 10%, do you think we should just themrow 10% of the population under a bus to save money ??

It’s refined that the U.K. death rates are 50-100% under reported, so their real death rate is probably 1500-2000 a day at present.

If we’d followed their trajectory we could be looking at 100-200 deaths a day here maybe more.

Honestly I tried blocking your posts but I keep seeing them in replies people make and think wow, how can a post be so careless about just letting people die so we could save money.

Have to agree with Sam and am far from being leftwing,more to the right of Ayn Rand I would think.
Do believe in the small government idea ala Maggie T and Ronald Regan but all thats just a distraction.Labeling people is a bit of a cop out.

Where are 10% dying?That would equate to 400000 to half a million in Ireland alone.

Don't worry about the UK,thats their problem.

People in nursing homes die at a much higher rate than the general populace.Thats just reality.Very few long term residents would be in good health and many would be there just for pallative care and end of life.

The HSE in their wisdom decided nursing homes were wrong to close to visitors in early March and are now caught with their pants down.If you f**k up at least admit it rather than trying to spin the story with a "look at the rabbit over there" type of nonsense.

As to people (not in this thread but elsewhere)saying you cannot put a value on a life the simple fact is that you can ,otherwise why would actuaries exist and wouldn't all medical treatment be available free of charge regardless of effectiveness or cost.

All this goes back to my point of Leo etc giving the impression its all out of their hands and totally a public health issue.It is in the main but the economy has to come into the equation at some stage

Base price

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

We are in a clusterfcuk of epic proportions and continue to dig ourselves deeper into the hole when the severity of the virus has been constantly revised downwards.
It has infected many more people than the official numbers suggest and far too much faith is put in "experts" who don't realise that the "numbers" are nowhere near reliable.

I've no time for conspiracys, there is a completely different side to this story that isn't being told.

This virus isn't killing 10% of infected people anywhere. Ten percent of positive tested people dying might have been recorded but that is with the backdrop of only a select minority of total infected being tested and not all coronavirus deaths are people dying because of the virus. These are FACTS not conspiracy theories.
The best estimates so far are of a death rate of between 0.37-0.55% for people infected with coronavirus. If this is to be compared equally with the flu mortality rate of 0.1%, they have to be compared in the same way. The flu death rate isn't dying with the flu, it's dying because of the flu. So to give a real comparison the total coronavirus deaths would have to be revised downwards which will give a mortality rate not vastly different to the flu.

We are destroying the economy with the restrictions, so where are the jobs and taxes going to come from to fund saving lives in the future. Please give an answer.
It's too easy to dismiss not blowing massive money on this but it is a FACT that we have limited resources and spending our money today means less money to save lives tomorrow.
So are you really saying saving lives today is more important than saving lives tomorrow?
And that's before we allow for the FACT that more lives can be saved for the same money in the future.
So am I fcuked up for thinking that maximising the use of our resources to improve/save the maximum amount of lives over the coming years is more important than panicking now?

paddysdream wrote: »

Have to agree with Sam and am far from being leftwing,more to the right of Ayn Rand I would think.
Do believe in the small government idea ala Maggie T and Ronald Regan but all thats just a distraction.Labeling people is a bit of a cop out.

Where are 10% dying?That would equate to 400000 to half a million in Ireland alone.

Don't worry about the UK,thats their problem.

People in nursing homes die at a much higher rate than the general populace.Thats just reality.Very few long term residents would be in good health and many would be there just for pallative care and end of life.

The HSE in their wisdom decided nursing homes were wrong to close to visitors in early March and are now caught with their pants down.If you f**k up at least admit it rather than trying to spin the story with a "look at the rabbit over there" type of nonsense.

As to people (not in this thread but elsewhere)saying you cannot put a value on a life the simple fact is that you can ,otherwise why would actuaries exist and wouldn't all medical treatment be available free of charge regardless of effectiveness or cost.

All this goes back to my point of Leo etc giving the impression its all out of their hands and totally a public health issue.It is in the main but the economy has to come into the equation at some stage

Maybe I'm stupid but I thought these restrictions are in place to prevent our already stretched/underfunded health service and front line workers becoming overwhelmed with a glut of cases - simples.
BTW the younger generations will have to work really hard into the future to pay for it and imo rightly so. We're going to no different than other countries. Their parents and grandparents worked hard post the second world war to provide for us.

Buford T. Justice XIX

A good article on the difference between isolation, tracing and testing early like in Germany and not doing it soon enough in Italy.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/pass-the-salt-tiny-details-helped-germany-build-virus-defences-993249.html

wrangler

Base price wrote: »

Maybe I'm stupid but I thought these restrictions are in place to prevent our already stretched/underfunded health service and front line workers becoming overwhelmed with a glut of cases - simples.
BTW the younger generations will have to work really hard into the future to pay for it and imo rightly so. We're going to no different than other countries. Their parents and grandparents worked hard post the second world war to provide for us.

So true, if only they realised that the longer they ignore the rules of the lock down the less they'll have into the future

yosemitesam1

Base price wrote: »

Maybe I'm stupid but I thought these restrictions are in place to prevent our already stretched/underfunded health service and front line workers becoming overwhelmed with a glut of cases - simples.
BTW the younger generations will have to work really hard into the future to pay for it and imo rightly so. We're going to no different than other countries. Their parents and grandparents worked hard post the second world war to provide for us.

The models that predicted overrun hospitals were nowhere near accurate.
If you put sh1t data into a model you get sh1t back out. There isn't enough understanding of the virus to have an accurate model. So instead of the fixation on testing we need to throw the net much further to develop a real understanding and also keep the virus spreading at some rate. We need randomness in testing as well as antibody sampling to start filling in gaps if models are to be accurate.
At present there is no plan at all and unless they're going to do something very soon we'd be better off to leave whatever happens happen. Otherwise these restrictions will still be in place this time next year.

jaymla627

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The models that predicted overrun hospitals were nowhere near accurate.
If you put sh1t data into a model you get sh1t back out. There isn't enough understanding of the virus to have an accurate model. So instead of the fixation on testing we need to throw the net much further to develop a real understanding and also keep the virus spreading at some rate. We need randomness in testing as well as antibody sampling to start filling in gaps if models are to be accurate.
At present there is no plan at all and unless they're going to do something very soon we'd be better off to leave whatever happens happen. Otherwise these restrictions will still be in place this time next year.

Local concrete crowd is starting back-up tuesday, alot more companies will too id reckon, the threat of fines and jail time isnt going too work any longer when companies are facing bankruptcy anyway if they dont get back trading

alps

wrangler wrote: »

So true, if only they realised that the longer they ignore the rules of the lock down the less they'll have into the future

I dont know a single young person flouting the rules. It isn't young people driving their cars down to their holiday homes at the coast. In fact, I dont think any young person has a house, not to mind 2!!!

At the rate money is being flung at this, i doubt any of them will ever afford a house...

This is a combination of stress over the safety of us all and dismay about what kind of future the school and college leavers on this house will have...

The whole thing seems to me to be like trying to fill a milk tank with the valve open...

Albert Johnson

alps wrote: »

I dont know a single young person flouting the rules. It isn't young people driving their cars down to their holiday homes at the coast. In fact, I dont think any young person has a house, not to mind 2!!!

At the rate money is being flung at this, i doubt any of them will ever afford a house...

This is a combination of stress over the safety of us all and dismay about what kind of future the school and college leavers on this house will have...

The whole thing seems to me to be like trying to fill a milk tank with the valve open...

I've held off from commenting on this thread due to a lack of knowledge and because it's a source of great division among posters. However I think we're rapidly approaching a crossroads that will define the future of this country for decades to come. Yes it's of paramount importance to deal with the issue of the virus and all related fallout but there's also other factors at play here.

So far we've only largely heard consideration of the impact of the virus on those that it will make seriously ill and sadly in certain cases kill. Yes we should remain conscious of this but we should also start to consider how the lives of the majority will be impacted by a looming recession quiet possibly the worst in living memory. Any premature loss of life is of course tragic but at times sadly almost unavoidable, we have only limited resources and perhaps we need to review our use of the same resources at this time.

Perhaps I'm coming across as cold hearted and that is not my intention. However there seems to be mainly two trains of thought in this debate. The first is a rigid following of solely medical advice that supports an almost indefinite continuation of current measures. The second is more open to questioning such advice and it's impact on the wider economy. Sadly both groups seem at odds with one another and anyone not seem to fully support the current restrictions is likely to be labeled as either a conspiracy theorist or as having little regard for society's most fragile.

I think we need to find a way to get people back to work and try to restart the wider economy before it flat lines entirely. There won't be any miracle solutions but we must also ensure that a bad situation doesn't become worse. Fatalities will to a certain extent have to be managed as opposed to stopped until a vaccine is found imo. It's reckless to expect that the vast majority can simply sit at home indefinitely without severe financial hardships in both the short term and without causing lasting damage to the economy.

We have elected politicians not medical experts to run this country and this is what needs to happen imo. Yes we need to take advice but from experts in different sectors of society and try to compile this advice into a coherent means of moving forward as a nation. I don't think we're placing enough emphasis on the financial and economic fallout atm and this will almost certainly prolong the agony for those who are left to rebuild whenever that day comes.

Sadly I believe that the scars of this incident will be apparent for many years to come and could be even more devastating if we don't take action soon. This is no doubt a disaster no matter how it's viewed but a lack of leadership and an ability to make the necessary decisions will no doubt influence just how devastating this will all become.

_Brian

The very reason the projected cluster**** hasn’t happened is the shutdown of the economy and massive restrictions on movement.

There are enough examples of what happens when these things aren’t done, Italy, New York, the U.K.

All I see are people here saying look, there was no need for restrictions because look how few cases there are, when there are so few cases BECAUSE of the restrictions.

As regards paying for this, like other burdens it will be borrowed and just become another line in future budgets. I’d rather see spending like we are doing now rather than the massive cock Up the children’s hospital is, that was a planned controlled event and no need for that to be a mess.

This crisis needed quick decisive action and that’s what happened, we can do the bean counting afterwards when we’ve saved thousands of lives.

yosemitesam1

_Brian wrote: »

As regards paying for this, like other burdens it will be borrowed and just become another line in future budgets. I’d rather see spending like we are doing now rather than the massive cock Up the children’s hospital is, that was a planned controlled event and no need for that to be a mess.

What you've described is buck passing. It's not a plan, it's hoping everything works out or we'll blame the EU/imf etc in a few years time when they're forcing us to make budget cuts. Healthcare WILL suffer and people WILL die as a direct result of excessive spending and economic damage now.

Buford T. Justice VI

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

A good article on the difference between isolation, tracing and testing early like in Germany and not doing it soon enough in Italy.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/pass-the-salt-tiny-details-helped-germany-build-virus-defences-993249.html

Somewhat of a diplomatic stand-off between italy and germany surronding that particular car parts diatributor (which is brushed aside in this times of crisis)


Seems one employee went home (or visit relatives/in-laws) in northern italy and visited doctor/hospideal 4 or 5 times with a severe dry cough.and it was passed around the city spreading for weeks before being picked up

They were chasing contacts of a chinese couple from.mid january,and missed completly its itinial spread



Lads thinking we should just throw caution to.the wind and open up everything again are scary....we could easily be italy at its worst in 6 weeks time, if we open too early

_Brian

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

What you've described is buck passing. It's not a plan, it's hoping everything works out or we'll blame the EU/imf etc in a few years time when they're forcing us to make budget cuts. Healthcare WILL suffer and people WILL die as a direct result of excessive spending and economic damage now.

No, that’s a plan, countries borrow all the time.

patsy_mccabe

Economically this shutdown is in a way like a very long weekend, nothing more. That's all it is. It's not like a property bubble bursting etc.

I was out tonight doing a quick bit of shopping and I was stopped twice. Guards were nice enough, in fairness. They had two young fellas pulled over to the side. They looked worried.

arctictree

Lads, lots of differing views on this thread. The problem is that every poster has a different personal situation that they should really declare before posting. Some lads are at home with nothing to do on full pay. Others are working from home while trying to mind young kids. While others have been financially devastated....

0lddog

*** Checks this is the Farming forum ***

So how are the Kiwis doing ?

Out of date CNN report https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuLWQK77rYk

Recent countrylife radio programs :

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/countrylife/audio/2018741407/country-life-for-friday-3-april-2020

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/countrylife/audio/2018742190/country-life-for-10-april-2020

Bubble groups seem like a good concept