Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

_Brian

longgonesilver wrote: »

This is an epidemic.

Hopefully we have slowed the speed of it's spread.

The test result figures are broadly irrelevant at this stage. The German results should have been allocated to the day the test was taken, they stretch back to mid March. Adding them in to the day they get the results distorts the figures.

We have no idea of the true number of cases anymore. At this stage testing should be reserved to testing all hse staff, maybe twice weekly and people being admitted to hospitals to segregate them.

Basically testing is reserved for critical health staff and hospitalised patients showing symptoms.

Locally turn around time for Tests on patients and critical staff is 6-8 hours, less critical hse staff 24-36 hours.

greenfield21

UK extends lockdown for three more weeks, interesting to see what trumps plans this evening.

yosemitesam1

https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/a-robbio-pv-il-22-ha-o-ha-avuto-il-coronavirus-ok-del-sindaco-ai-test-per-tutti_17285128-202002a.shtml

Antibody testing results from Robbio Italy, once again it appears that the virus has spread much further than official figures

gk5000

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/a-robbio-pv-il-22-ha-o-ha-avuto-il-coronavirus-ok-del-sindaco-ai-test-per-tutti_17285128-202002a.shtml

Antibody testing results from Robbio Italy, once again it appears that the virus has spread much further than official figures

Any chance of a quick summary in English please?


BTW, appreciate your non mainstream commentary.

yosemitesam1

gk5000 wrote: »

Any chance of a quick summary in English please?


BTW, appreciate your non mainstream commentary.

A town in Lombardy had 22% of the sampled people testing positive for antibodies or the virus.
If similar results were found across Lombardy with a population of 10 million and 11,608 coronavirus deaths.
It indicates that the virus mortality rate was 0.52% which gives a similar result to a German study posted earlier in the thread which estimated 0.37% and is also similar to the estimated Chinese mortality.

Water John

Jenner Institute in Oxford are hopeful of having a vaccine approved by the Autumn. The reason they can do this is because they already produced a vaccine for another coronavirus MERS. So, they can skip much of the safety testing.

greysides

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-the-need-to-treat-and-prevent-covid-19-is-powering-forward-medical-progress-11974369

Water John

Greysides, that's a great read.

whelan2

Please explain again what the median age means

greysides

From Facebook. This is how a mild_/moderate illness affects you...


I feel half-embarrassed setting to write this. Making a holy show of myself. But, many people are asking me: how was it? A doctor friend says I have to write about it, it is important, too many people believe stupid conspiracy theories, even a doctor friend of hers, no, he did not look after patients with it yet and no, he does not think that this disease is really that bad, sure, 80% have a mild form, it is only people with previous conditions that die…

I wonder why I feel embarrassed, what is there to be embarrassed about, why do I feel like this? What am I to write? That I am a person who is currently on day 20 of the current plague, the COVID-19. Survived, but not nearly close to recovered. That I am a doctor. We always feel like frauds when we are ill. I don’t know where that comes from. An overgrown sense of duty? A subconscious übermensch idea? Both? We take sick days so rarely. We wear our work ethic as a badge of honour. We are eejits. That’s Irish for idiots.

Circling back to the beginning: at the end of January, my older son was flying from a holiday in the Philippines, back to Oslo and then home, through Hong Kong. He spent 24 hours in the Hong Kong airport waiting for a standby. Hong Kong had five cases of the new virus that Friday. When he landed in Oslo, he and his girlfriend had a slightly raised temperature, diarrhoea and a bit of a cough. It is not this new virus thing, I said, there is no diarrhoea with it. If you get a high fever and a cough, go to a hospital. I was not worried. He was. This is not the flu, mum, this is far worse, I read about it. I thought he was panicking, listening again to some YouTube conspiracy theorist. He and the girlfriend were a bit boiled, a bit viral, they got better quickly.

It was far away at first, I did not think much of it. Sure, probably the Chinese are over-reacting with this extreme lockdown stuff. And even if not, SARS was stopped in China, MERS was stopped in the Middle East, we never saw them, it will be the same, I thought.
Then it came to Italy. My second language is Italian, it feels like home. I have friends there, I read the newspapers, I saw the anguish. The nightmare became real.

My response? Learn everything there is to know about the enemy. Get ready. Get ready, get ready, get ready, the enemy is behind the hill. I remembered the days as the war was starting in my homeland. The same sense of foreboding, the knowledge, deep in the bones, that battle is ahead.

I am not prone to anxiety. There was only one time in my life, before, a horrible time, when I was waking, startled, before dawn, wanting to run, drawing invisible daggers in defence. Yet, here it was again, the waking before dawn with a sense of panic and urgency: what else do I need to do, what else do I need to know?
We were getting ready, in the hospital. I was reading every case report, every study. It felt like revising for my history of medicine exam, all those years ago: all these descriptions of the new disease—yes, there is nausea and there is fever and there are cough and shortness of breath and—oh—there can be abdominal pain and diarrhoea after all—and beware the seventh day for then is when they begin to die, what a totally medieval sentence!

It was the second week in March, three of my doctor friends were at home with symptoms, self-isolating, waiting to be tested. Another one’s co-worker was sick, one of the first in Ireland, we spent two hours chatting in my kitchen two days earlier, I decided not to spend any time in anyone's company until she was negative. The pubs were still open, I walked past a full one, while on the way to the butcher’s, on a Sunday before Paddy’s day, horrified. I was relieved when they were closed, that night.

My younger son had a barking cough, I called his GP on Paddy’s Day. She sounded harassed, I can’t talk to you, he’s 18! He probably downplayed his symptoms; she did not test him. The day after, my friend’s result was negative, I went back to work, swabbed the son myself on day 9 of his cough. He was negative, all was well, a false alarm, back to work, get ready, get everything ready. The other three doctor friends were positive. Mild symptoms, they said. I was to find out later they downplayed the symptoms. We are eejits, I tell you; we lie to ourselves first.

Three weeks ago, on a Wednesday, after lunch in work, I barely made it to the loo with a bout of profuse diarrhoea. I remember thinking: those ACE2 receptors in my gut, is this what is happening right now? The virus attaching itself to them? Ah, now, chill, I told myself, don’t over-react. Came home late, ate something, felt sooooo tired, collapsed into bed.

I worked from home the following day, Thursday. I was not supposed to, I work half-time and I have put in 11-hour days from Monday to Wednesday already. Never mind, there was no half-time for weeks already, unpaid though it was, everything needed to be sorted, researched, to be ready. I spent the whole day on the computer, 10 hours straight. In the evening I had a headache. I never have headaches. My back hurt. My back never hurts. All my muscles hurt. You have just sat on the computer all day, I told myself. Ah, yes, it must be that. I measured my temperature: 37.4°C. My normal temperature is 36.4°C (yes, my Irish friends, I know that; everyone from the Balkans has a thermometer at home, everyone knows what their normal temperature is). Ah, it’s probably nothing, I told myself.

The following day was another 10-hour day on the computer. More headache, backache, a tingling throat, tiredness in all my bones. I measured my temperature. 37.9°C. Oh, crap. Here we go. But maybe it is not it. Sure, not every temperature is COVID-19. But need to self-isolate, keep the boys away. My sons are 18 and 21, they are young men, but—yes, boys. Luckily, they have prepared for self-isolation for the last few years, living in their cave of a bedroom attached to the PS3 and the computer.

Saturday: more computer, more work, need to sleep, can’t sit any more, everything aching, a dry cough when I start talking, no appetite, nausea, nausea, I am never nauseous, not even when hungover, this is it, this is it. I can barely manage chicken soup my son cooked, need to call the GP on Monday.

Sunday, my friend drops in tangerines and bananas, banana bread her mother made, a lovely smelling shower gel with an in-joke to cheer me up. My other friend cooks dahl, leaves it on my doorstep, I can barely eat. The food is simple, but even this is too much.

Monday, 38.5°C, coughing, wrecked, no strength to turn the computer on, sleeping most of the day, cannot eat, everything hurts. Called the GP. Getting tested on Tuesday. Another friend dropping in shopping.

Tuesday 38.2°C, tested, barely drove there and back, collapsed into bed. Coughing, tired, breath catching a bit, nothing to worry about, I tell myself, this is not the proper dyspnoea, it should feel worse.
Wednesday, Thursday, a blur, temperature high. Coughing, coughing, coughing, cannot finish a sentence, cannot talk. Another friend leaves shopping on my doorstep, all the goodies, she is one of the three who just recovered from COVID-19, tells me the worst thing was that she missed being looked after. I am blessed with my friends, so grateful.

Thursday night, fever, burning, my chest is closing in. Or is it? I know this is day 8. I know people end up in ICU now. Beware the seventh day! Am I just panicking? Is this a real dyspnoea? I open the bedroom window wide, the air is cool and soothing, but I need more, I need more. I kneel on the bed, remember the ujjayi breathing my yoga teacher taught me, I lean with my hands on the knees, tighten the bottom part of the abdominal muscles and breathe with the back of the diaphragm. Yes, this is the same logic behind the proning ventilation techniques in ICU, breathing with the back part of the diaphragm, there’s more lung in the back, need to activate all of it. I breathe some more; it is a bit easier now. Will I call the ambulance? Ah, c’mon Ana, don’t panic, don’t be a wuss! Breathe some more! I am tired, so tired. I fall asleep on my belly, let’s give my lungs some proning help. As I drift away, I think: “I hope I will wake up.” But I am too tired to worry.

Friday morning: I wake up. My fever is finally just below 38°C, this is great news, but I cannot talk, I am coughing, coughing, coughing.

Friday lunchtime: in a paroxysm of coughing, my chest seizes again, my breath is cut short, I feel like drowning. It is day 9. I am afraid I will die. I message my friend, an infectious diseases consultant who is driving from her own test: she works in England, had a contact with a COVID-19 patient without proper PPE. She calls me back straight away and says: do not be an idiot, drive to the ED if you can drive. If you cannot, call an ambulance. But my fever has fallen! I am improving! This is probably nothing! A nurse died last night like this, she says, her family thought she had turned the corner, she was getting better. I talk to the other medical consultant friend, come in, she says, now. My chest is tight, I feel dizzy, am I panicking or collapsing for real? I fight against the fear of being an over-reacting wuss and call an ambulance. More ujjayi breathing, I settle enough to comb my hair and change into clean clothes, my grandmother in my head, you always have to have good knickers and nice pyjamas for the hospital, I am in clean house leggings and a tunic, will I put a bra on? I cannot bear a bra, I cannot bear anything around my chest, sod it. I pack a bag with more knickers and a change of clothes, a brush, a toothbrush, my lenses, I breathe some more ujjayi, I lie down, fall asleep, fitfully.

An hour and a half later, the ambulance is here. My oxygen saturation is good, 98%. I feel better. There’s no point in going to the hospital, he says, I’ll bring you if you really want to, but what are they going to do, you don’t need oxygen? I think it would probably be good to do an ABG, to analyse my oxygen levels, to do a chest X-ray, a CT maybe, but I don’t say it--sure, I was obviously panicking, my sats are 98%. Grand, I say, I will call you if I get worse. My sons are worried at the stairs, go away, I yell between two coughing fits, don’t come near! It has just dawned on them that this is for real. Did you get your test result, do you really have the virus? I didn’t yet, no, but I think I have it, yes, I do, stay back!
I sleep, I keep quiet, more ujjayi, my chest is not seizing. I go to sleep; I pray to wake up. You are ridiculous, I say to myself. No, I am not, I reply.

From the next day, day 10, to today, day 20, I am improving sliver by sliver. I still cough, I am hacking my lungs out whenever I speak or move, but I can speak for a few sentences now or even for minutes before the barking starts. My temperature went away one day, then returned, not as high as before, but not normal either. My friends and neighbours are great. I get halloumi wraps left on my windowsill and roast chickens at my doorstep, a quick call, a knock on the door, come out and get it. Groceries get dropped, messages of love and worry and what you need, just tell, overfill the inboxes. I finally get the positive result 10 days after I got tested, on day 16 of disease: it was supposed to be prioritised as I am a doctor, but it was put in the wrong bag, these things happen. I feel relieved. It is true, after all, I did not invent this, I am not a psycho. You are a psycho for even thinking you invented this, I say to myself.

I am still nowhere near well. I have not left the house for three weeks. I wake up thinking this is the day when I improve and then collapse into dreamless sleep every afternoon, suddenly overwhelmed, fold over like a card soldier from Alice in Wonderland cartoon, my temperature up. I sleep, my temperature goes down.
I don’t know how long this go will on for. I have resigned myself to another week at home at least. I know I must fight the urge to return too early when I start feeling better, I always do that and suffer for weeks afterwards. I try to find out how long is the convalescence—four weeks, five weeks, people say, nobody knows, not important, they survived. Am I still shedding the virus? I could be, there have been reports of shedding for over a month. Will I need to be retested? Am I immune? That nobody knows either.

So, this was a mild form of COVID-19. I did not need oxygen. (Edit: some of my doctor friends disagree and say moderate. I would probably say that if I was them because it makes sense. Which is why we are not allowed to treat ourselves).

I did not need hospital admission. I am getting better. Yet, there was nothing mild about it and it is only now that I am better that I realise how poorly I felt. I tell my friend to send this to her conspiracy theorist. You can, too, if you have any of that ilk. Wash your hands, don’t panic, if you get ill, beware the seventh day. Oh, yes, and probably learn ujjayi.

Water John

Median is the age of the middle person on a list.

25,65, 70,72,75,78,80, The ages of 7 people. Median is 72

For average, you add them all, 465 and divide by the 7 people. Average 66.4.

The age of one young person would skew the view. Only two are under 66 whilst 5 are over it.

Will get to read that long piece, Greysides.

jimini0

Water John wrote: »

Median is the age of the middle person on a list.

25,65, 70,72,75,78,80, The ages of 7 people. Median is 72

For average, you add them all, 465 and divide by the 7 people. Average 66.4.

The age of one young person would skew the view. Only two are under 66 whilst 5 are over it.

Will get to read that long piece, Greysides.

That explains it a lot better than google

_Brian

An interesting read

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/forgotten-by-history-how-flu-became-a-deadly-plague-36878029.html

yosemitesam1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

Another antibody study, in America.

alps

HSE are running the economics of the country...I'm thinking the never have a solution to anything other than fire money at it guddo...

The HSE's Chief Operating Officer Anne O'Connor confirmed that the HSE has "block booked" Dublin's CityWest hotel until the end of December. She said she believed that the booking had been made for a seven month period.
In relation to whether the HSE foresees using the facilities Ms O'Connor said "the challenge is that we don't exactly know. We hope we never have to use it."

We hope we never have to use it...but well take it till December anyway..wonder if she realises that if they need it, city west and every other hotel facility in the country will still be empty..

Buford T. Justice XIX

Things not looking good in the States.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1251341459971866624?s=19

Bass Reeves

alps wrote: »

HSE are running the economics of the country...I'm thinking the never have a solution to anything other than fire money at it guddo...

The HSE's Chief Operating Officer Anne O'Connor confirmed that the HSE has "block booked" Dublin's CityWest hotel until the end of December. She said she believed that the booking had been made for a seven month period.
In relation to whether the HSE foresees using the facilities Ms O'Connor said "the challenge is that we don't exactly know. We hope we never have to use it."

We hope we never have to use it...but well take it till December anyway..wonder if she realises that if they need it, city west and every other hotel facility in the country will still be empty..

The head of the WHO has said during this pandemic the trick is not to be perfect but to be fast. There will be mistakes and money wasted such as the first PPE and the present nursing home crisis but as long as government reacts fast then there is a chance that we may come through better than may countries

alps

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

Things not looking good in the States.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1251341459971866624?s=19

Not good on many fronts..

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1251271911088295936?s=19

alps

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The head of the WHO has said during this pandemic the trick is not to be perfect but to be fast. There will be mistakes and money wasted such as the first PPE and the present nursing home crisis but as long as government reacts fast then there is a chance that we may come through better than may countries

Utilising facilities and assets to get ahead of the virus would be an excellent use of funds....but empty hotels and empty private hospitals is not getting ahead of the virus...

The reaction of 90% of the Irish population was faster and ahead of government measures. You have to praise the people for our current position, but it is only relative to some of our neighbouring countries.

yosemitesam1

alps wrote: »

Not good on many fronts..

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1251271911088295936?s=19

Where is the line drawn before the cure is worse than the disease?
We are surely getting closer to the day when we will all have to face the virus. It might be fine for many people either getting the 350 or wage subsidy. But when the 350 eventually gets cut or jobs lost for good, will everyone still be happy to put up with these restrictions?

Bass Reeves

alps wrote: »

Utilising facilities and assets to get ahead of the virus would be an excellent use of funds....but empty hotels and empty private hospitals is not getting ahead of the virus...

The reaction of 90% of the Irish population was faster and ahead of government measures. You have to praise the people for our current position, but it is only relative to some of our neighbouring countries.

TBH I think we have flattened the curve more than most countries. The nursing homes was/is a fiasco. Maybe it should have been noticed faster. However look at NY and Londan. If the surge that happened there happened here then City west and the private hospitals would be needed. Then we be whinging why it was not done in time. I would not be critical about that or some of the poorer PPE equip that landed. Maybe with hindsight the HSE should have gone into the NH earlier, however ultimate blame lies with the NH management in these situations and its not all down to PPE most I imagine a lot is down to too much movement of staff employed through agencies as opposed to fulltime staff

yosemitesam1

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Where is the line drawn before the cure is worse than the disease?
We are surely getting closer to the day when we will all have to face the virus. It might be fine for many people either getting the 350 or wage subsidy. But when the 350 eventually gets cut or jobs lost for good, will everyone still be happy to put up with these restrictions?

I cant see them lifting restrictions wholesale until some medicine to treat the virus is at least developed


At present there is no treatment for cv-19,they treat any underlying conditions etc,but rely on your bodies immune system to beat this virus.....

In theory if you had several young kids,coming out of a long winter,/over worked at lambing time etc etc and run down healthwise...this could kill you

K.G.

Just on the nursing home thing-how do you better protect them.staff isolation?.zero transfer of patients?.no staff transfer.hiw do you cover sick staff/isolation.yes there may have been issues with ppe but that was an international problem.bottom line unless you cocoon the entire staff and hospital you ar e going to be exposed.then the problem you have is the vulnerability of patients. There was plenty agro when they restricted visitors nevermind full scale cocooning

greysides

There is no evidence that people who have recovered from coronavirus have immunity to the disease, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

carrollsno1

Have an Aunt diagnosed with it during the week, she was working in a care home for people with disabilitys. Apparently all the residents had a touch of it but have recovered fully now, most of these lads would have had some sort of underlying condition of some sort.
My Aunt said she hasnt much trouble just a bit of shortness of breath thats all so far.

whelan2

The daily figures are very misleading. 44 deaths reported yesterday but these are not yesterday's deaths. Think there was only around 20 deaths yesterday

yosemitesam1

greysides wrote: »

There is no evidence that people who have recovered from coronavirus have immunity to the disease, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

.

_Brian

K.G. wrote: »

Just on the nursing home thing-how do you better protect them.staff isolation?.zero transfer of patients?.no staff transfer.hiw do you cover sick staff/isolation.yes there may have been issues with ppe but that was an international problem.bottom line unless you cocoon the entire staff and hospital you ar e going to be exposed.then the problem you have is the vulnerability of patients. There was plenty agro when they restricted visitors nevermind full scale cocooning

We need to move the care of vulnerable elderly away from a for profit model. That just encourages care at the lowest possible cost which isn’t good.

Maybe it’s time for a different model. Maybe a not for profit model where care is the priority not profit. When you see hospital consultants flocking to get their money invested in care homes it’s obviously a very lucrative market.

Say my name

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

.

This talk of vaccines has to be carefully done and handled.
Is it going to be a live or dead vaccine?
And remember it's not the vaccine that stops or lessens the effects of a virus but it's your body's immune systems reaction to that vaccine that protects you.
A vaccine is the lesser type of virus that hopefully a body doesn't show much reaction to. Hence live or dead vaccine.

I had a neighbour vaccinated his stock for ibr with a live vaccine with only a land commission wire fence between his and mine. He never told till a few days later when one of my stock came down with a bad case of ibr. I had to start vaccinations after that.

alps

whelan2 wrote: »

The daily figures are very misleading. 44 deaths reported yesterday but these are not yesterday's deaths. Think there was only around 20 deaths yesterday

Only 20 yesterday until all of yesterday's figures are collected..