Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

yosemitesam1

Water John wrote: »

I think Dr. Nolan said yesterday that Level 3 holds figures but does not suppress the number. That I always thought was correct. However don't think that works at extremely low rates as we had in the summer for the simple reason is that people won't stick to Level 3 only if there is a significant number of infections.
So, should we now suppress it to say 1/200 per day, then go to Level 3 and keep an equilibrium and not go into a see saw again?
Level 3 enforced strictly BTW.

What the restrictions will do will vary according to the seasons also. When we enter peak coronavirus season between December and March, it will most likely spread easier with a higher percentage showing symptoms than September/October.
What happens then...

endainoz

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

1000 cases today would be equal to maybe 150-200 in April at the most, probably less.

Purely speculation, no way of proving that.

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

What the restrictions will do will vary according to the seasons also. When we enter peak coronavirus season between December and March, it will most likely spread easier with a higher percentage showing symptoms than September/October.
What happens then...

Again with the hypothetical questions, we simply don't know what way things will be at the start of the year.

Once again I'll say to you is that all we have is current data, and the current data is positive. I feel like I'm going around in circles here.

wrangler

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

What the restrictions will do will vary according to the seasons also. When we enter peak coronavirus season between December and March, it will most likely spread easier with a higher percentage showing symptoms than September/October.
What happens then...

England going into lockdown now, right or wrong it seems to be the popular solution to handling this virus

jaymla627

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Things stabilized for now but how things will pan out in the future remains to be seen.
What if the numbers don't go low enough? We could be locked down until May as nphets focus seems to have changed to getting the numbers as low as possible once again instead of tolerating a certain amount

Death rate figures from the likes of France and Belgium for the month of November will be a good case study, to see what levels of covid can be tolerated in a population before the proverbial hits the fan, it's out of control in Belgium especially at the minute with case numbers over 20k the past few days and close on nearly 5% of their population having been confirmed as covid positive....
If the severity of the disease is lessening and we only see death rates in the likes of belgium not skyrocket, it might give the likes of nphet no excuse to lift certain restrictions

_Brian

jaymla627 wrote: »

Death rate figures from the likes of France and Belgium for the month of November will be a good case study, to see what levels of covid can be tolerated in a population before the proverbial hits the fan, it's out of control in Belgium especially at the minute with case numbers over 20k the past few days and close on nearly 5% of their population having been confirmed as covid positive....
If the severity of the disease is lessening and we only see death rates in the likes of belgium not skyrocket, it might give the likes of nphet no excuse to lift certain restrictions

When Leo was ignoring nephet and pretending he knew better than them on the tv he said we need to look to countries like Belgium and how they were managing. Well that wouldn’t have been a good thing.

Listen to the experts not the politicians

Water John

Problem was 48 hours before, the experts had said there was no need to go from Level 2 to Level 3. Had we gone to Level 3 a week or two earlier and abided by it, we probably now wouldn't be a Level 5.

_Brian

Water John wrote: »

Problem was 48 hours before, the experts had said there was no need to go from Level 2 to Level 3. Had we gone to Level 3 a week or two earlier and abided by it, we probably now wouldn't be a Level 5.

Agree.
If people had behaved L3 would have been fine.

But we are where we are.

Wonder will the government have tie balls to stick the L5 out for the full term or will they buckle to public pressure ??

Water John

Agree, longer term we hold it at Level 3 and any breaking ranks on that by anyone is unacceptable behaviour. No nod and wink about the lads running shebeens, etc.

Water John

I think Say My Name posted about Vitamin D earlier. Here scientists in the UK are proposing that more foods be fortified with it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/add-vitamin-d-bread-milk-help-fight-covid-urge-scientists-deficiency-supplements

Say my name

Water John wrote: »

I think Say My Name posted about Vitamin D earlier. Here scientists in the UK are proposing that more foods be fortified with it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/31/add-vitamin-d-bread-milk-help-fight-covid-urge-scientists-deficiency-supplements

And fermented foods have more vitamin D that is readily available.

I've a feeling down the line brix will be seen as very important to health.
The higher the photosynthesis the higher the brix and should then be higher in vitamin D.
It should pass that this would also pass from grass to cow to milk. For the winter months the high brix fermented silage to cow to milk.

Water John

Slovakia tested half its pop yesterday, over two and a half million. 26K or 1% were positive and must go into quarantine. That's an alt approach.

yosemitesam1

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Nice graph there from the cso.
Has covid caused anything we haven't seen in even very recent years?
It would look like our flu peak was just later this year if one had never heard of covid

Injuryprone

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Nice graph there from the cso.
Has covid caused anything we haven't seen in even very recent years?
It would look like our flu peak was just later this year if one had never heard of covid

Which means that the measures introduced by the government were reasonably successful, don't you agree?

Or are you really trying to suggest that that's the graph we'd have if the government sat on its' hands and did nothing.

Yeah, yeah.........it's nothing much worse than the flu.

emaherx

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Nice graph there from the cso.
Has covid caused anything we haven't seen in even very recent years?
It would look like our flu peak was just later this year if one had never heard of covid

Yes, world wide overwhelming of hospital systems in every country which tried to minimize restrictions for as long as they thought were possible.

Anecdotally, I can't say I've ever personally known as many people who've been to ICU in a single year before.

yosemitesam1

Injuryprone wrote: »

Which means that the measures introduced by the government were reasonably successful, don't you agree?

Or are you really trying to suggest that that's the graph we'd have if the government sat on its' hands and did nothing.

Yeah, yeah.........it's nothing much worse than the flu.

The government's restrictions did very little to help those who needed it most.
Our deaths per person over the age of 65 are very similar to Sweden's, so what did we actually achieve by lockdown?

yosemitesam1

emaherx wrote: »

Yes, world wide overwhelming of hospital systems in every country which tried to minimize restrictions for as long as they thought were possible.

Anecdotally, I can't say I've ever personally known as many people who've been to ICU in a single year before.

Apart from Italy where hospitals coming under pressure had more to do with the hysteria around covid more than the disease itself. Where have we actually seen massive overwhelming of hospitals? UK and the US weren't overwhelmed, neither was Sweden.
It seems to be just assumed by all models that meltdown of the health service is a given without covid restrictions. They are based on extrapolating dirty data and will always give doomsday predictions as a result

wrangler

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Nice graph there from the cso.
Has covid caused anything we haven't seen in even very recent years?
It would look like our flu peak was just later this year if one had never heard of covid

You'd have to compare like with like, 2020 is a line based on cases while we're under restrictions whereas the rest are not. The rapid rise when the restrictions were lifted would put a different line up there if let continue

emaherx

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Apart from Italy where hospitals coming under pressure had more to do with the hysteria around covid more than the disease itself. Where have we actually seen massive overwhelming of hospitals? UK and the US weren't overwhelmed, neither was Sweden.
It seems to be just assumed by all models that meltdown of the health service is a given without covid restrictions. They are based on extrapolating dirty data and will always give doomsday predictions as a result

Current news reports from the states suggest otherwise, things are not exactly fantastic in Belgium either.

yosemitesam1

emaherx wrote: »

Current news reports from the states suggest otherwise, things are not exactly fantastic in Belgium either.

Belgium's biggest problem appears to be that 20-25% of nurses/doctors are out of work. It's very questionable whether the policy should be that a positive test equals stay at home in the absence of symptoms.
That was one of the major factors resulting in Italy's problems.
They lost a big chunk of staff to covid positives on top of foreign staff heading home and large numbers needing to stay at home with children. Then you had large amounts of nursing home patients not being properly cared for hitting the hospital's on top of covid.

From memory I think Irish hospitals were running at something like 5-10% overcapacity before covid arrived in what was a less severe flu season than other years. Yet if we were to get anywhere near 100% capacity now, the media would be hysterical

emaherx

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

From memory I think Irish hospitals were running at something like 5-10% overcapacity before covid arrived in what was a less severe flu season than other years. Yet if we were to get anywhere near 100% capacity now, the media would be hysterical

I'll not disagree with you on this point, but as a nation we should have gotten hysterical by this exact issue decades ago. I don't think the current fear is about reaching 5-10% over capacity of the hospitals but more of reaching worse levels of overcapacity specifically in the acute beds.

Even reaching over capacity by a small amount at the moment is a bigger issue than normal as corridors full of sick patients on trolleys will be a breeding ground for Covid-19

yosemitesam1

emaherx wrote: »

I'll not disagree with you on this point, but as a nation we should have gotten hysterical by this exact issue decades ago. I don't think the current fear is about reaching 5-10% over capacity of the hospitals but more of reaching worse levels of overcapacity specifically in the acute beds.

Even reaching over capacity by a small amount at the moment is a bigger issue than normal as corridors full of sick patients on trolleys will be a breeding ground for Covid-19

Ultimately it should cost pennies to build icu capacity and bed numbers compared to lockdown.
It just doesn't make sense why we haven't done it

wrangler

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Ultimately it should cost pennies to build icu capacity and bed numbers compared to lockdown.
It just doesn't make sense why we haven't done it

They can't even staff what they have, isn't there huge absenteeism

paddysdream

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/excess-deaths-covid-19-ireland-5252481-Nov2020/

Nice graph there from the cso.
Has covid caused anything we haven't seen in even very recent years?
It would look like our flu peak was just later this year if one had never heard of covid

Maybe I am reading the graph wrong but what it looks liken is that the peak death rate just moved in time this year compared to other years.

What will tell the tale is the 5 year average when we look back on this.If it is not noticeably higher then will the "lockdown" have been a very expensive exercise for Ireland ?

In crude terms from a farming perspective is it like a large flock of sheep ?
An easy Winter will see a lot of marginal ewes survive whereas a tough year will see them succumb but on average the annual losses will be the same when averaged out over a number of years ?

In my uneducated opinion all this panic is not because of the inherent danger of Covid 19 rather the inability of the Irish health sector to deal with it.Were we not asked in March/April to just slow it down so as to allow the HSE get prepared ?
Whatever happened between then and now?
Again in crude farming terms if you buy 100 extra cattle in February then perhaps shed space might be under pressure at the time but at least you know that come whatever you will need housing before the following November to cater for the extra numbers.
Perhaps the once off cost of lockdown is cheaper than actually building a more competent health sector?

odyssey06

Whats the reason for the 'panic' in Italy, UK, Spain, France, Belgium then?

Slovakia is testing its entire population.

Even Germany with the greatest ICU resources in the EU going into equivalent of Level 3.

This is not some invented local panic due to HSE failures. We are maybe a step ahead because of that but our peers moving in same direction.

We can debate L3 v L5 but the reason for the measures is that this is a virus that can flood public health capacity.

SuperTortoise

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Apart from Italy where hospitals coming under pressure had more to do with the hysteria around covid more than the disease itself. Where have we actually seen massive overwhelming of hospitals? UK and the US weren't overwhelmed, neither was Sweden.
It seems to be just assumed by all models that meltdown of the health service is a given without covid restrictions. They are based on extrapolating dirty data and will always give doomsday predictions as a result

We did'nt get to the stage where our hospitals were overwhelmed because of an early warning in Italy, and in New York where they opened mass graves.


What i don't get is people who argue our economy is more important, our economy as well as every other nation's economy in the world is going to tank, lockdown or no lockdown, Sweeden's economy contracted by something like 8% for the first 6 months of this year which is exactly the same as ours.


I did'nt agree with stopping surgeries and screenings last March, i think we could have found a way of having a functional health service run alongside some sort of a lockdown and no doubt there will be many additional deaths because of that and that is tragic and could have been prevented.


But looking at just the economy you can't honestly say we would be better off if we just let the virus spread largely unchecked.

paddysdream

odyssey06 wrote: »

Whats the reason for the 'panic' in Italy, UK, Spain, France, Belgium then?

Slovakia is testing its entire population.

Even Germany with the greatest ICU resources in the EU going into equivalent of Level 3.

This is not some invented local panic due to HSE failures.

I have no idea re. what is happening in those places but looking at the figures for this country still am not convinced that the death toll so far is the issue for those making the decisions.
Its like a course of action was decided on and come hell or high water it will be followed to the end because admitting they may have been wrong is seen as being worse than anything.Pure civil service mentality.

paddysdream

SuperTortoise wrote: »

We did'nt get to the stage where our hospitals were overwhelmed because of an early warning in Italy, and in New York where they opened mass graves.


What i don't get is people who argue our economy is more important, our economy as well as every other nation's economy in the world is going to tank, lockdown or no lockdown, Sweeden's economy contracted by something like 8% for the first 6 months of this year which is exactly the same as ours.


I did'nt agree with stopping surgeries and screenings last March, i think we could have found a way of having a functional health service run alongside some sort of a lockdown and no doubt there will be many additional deaths because of that and that is tragic and could have been prevented.


But looking at just the economy you can't honestly say we would be better off if we just let the virus spread largely unchecked.

Nobody is saying let it spread unchecked but rather questioning the proportionality of the response.
Its like covid 19 is the one thing that you cannot die from this year.
There seems to be an underlying idea of "shame" surrounding it,something like TB had in 1950's Ireland.
2 examples of this on the radio this week from Pat Kenny and Joe Duffy.Kenny emphasisng how Robert Fisk had a respiratory issue recently but not covid 19 and Duffy calling Trump stupid for contracting it

Think the mass grave thing is a bit of a fairy story.

paddysdream

Think the biggest problem facing the Government from their perspective is that people are starting to come to the opinion,rightly or wrongly ,that its all at bit overblown by overwrought people .

Talking to a person tonight who is a senior public servant and they telling me that they visit their mother in Dublin 2/3 times a week and how its best not to come down N7/9 till after 9pm as checkpoint gone at that stage.
This from a person who would /should be very aware of whats going on .Its,again a farming analogy,very like a Bord Bia inspection ;say the right things and only produce whats acceptable while both parties know its all horsesh1t but procedure must be followed at all costs no matter what.

yosemitesam1

SuperTortoise wrote: »

We did'nt get to the stage where our hospitals were overwhelmed because of an early warning in Italy, and in New York where they opened mass graves.


What i don't get is people who argue our economy is more important, our economy as well as every other nation's economy in the world is going to tank, lockdown or no lockdown, Sweeden's economy contracted by something like 8% for the first 6 months of this year which is exactly the same as ours.


I did'nt agree with stopping surgeries and screenings last March, i think we could have found a way of having a functional health service run alongside some sort of a lockdown and no doubt there will be many additional deaths because of that and that is tragic and could have been prevented.


But looking at just the economy you can't honestly say we would be better off if we just let the virus spread largely unchecked.

Take those mass graves in new York that rte were showing back in the spring. Those mass graves have been there every year. Their purpose is for those who can't afford their own funeral. It was pure sensationalism to be insinuating that they were a result of covid.
Then take the images from northern Italy, there was issues with funeral homes not taking bodies from covid positives, it wasn't necessarily that the capacity to deal with things wasn't there. But the media wasn't ever afraid of letting boring details get in the way of their story

odyssey06

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Take those mass graves in new York that rte were showing back in the spring. Those mass graves have been there every year. Their purpose is for those who can't afford their own funeral. It was pure sensationalism to be insinuating that they were a result of covid.
Then take the images from northern Italy, there was issues with funeral homes not taking bodies from covid positives, it wasn't necessarily that the capacity to deal with things wasn't there. But the media wasn't ever afraid of letting boring details get in the way of their story

You are skipping some details yourself there.
They were digging more such graves in New York because there were 5 times more people than normal in need of burial in the city paupers plot.

Similarly in Bergamo demand for crematoriums and burials was running at multiples of normal levels.