Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

xckjoo

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

On an individual level, RIP.

But population wise, we're 1/3 of the way through the month.

In Q4 2019, 7639 people died of all causes. That's on average 2500 people per month. It's likely that many who died of Covid would have died of something else anyway.

source: https://www.thejournal.ie/number-of-deaths-per-month-in-ireland-5202283-Sep2020/

Did you read the article you linked to?

Based on the analysis of death notices, the estimate for excess mortality to 30 June 2020 is 1,072.

So 1,072 more than would have died if we didn't have COVID. The article itself doesn't seem to have anything to do with the point you're making but this quote directly contravenes what you said out the same people dieing from something else anyway. The point of the article is to stop people jumping to conclusions based on incomplete information and using statistics they don't fully understand

Mrs OBumble

xckjoo wrote: »

Did you read the article you linked to?


So 1,072 more than would have died if we didn't have COVID. The article itself doesn't seem to have anything to do with the point you're making but this quote directly contravenes what you said out the same people dieing from something else anyway. The point of the article is to stop people jumping to conclusions based on incomplete information and using statistics they don't fully understand

The article was purely a source for the Q4 2019 figure.

We're now talking about November. 28 << 1000+

Zzippy

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

The article was purely a source for the Q4 2019 figure.

We're now talking about November. 28 << 1000+

You're talking nonsense. Without the figures for all mortality for Q4 2020 you have no idea if those 28 are excess mortality or would have died of other causes, but you're happy to say the latter is likely. Seriously, you're extrapolating from incomplete data and drawing conclusions that cannot be drawn. It's not just stupid, it's stupidly irresponsilble and feeds the narrative of those who would claim that HSE etc are inflating Covid death numbers. Almost as if that was your intent...

xckjoo

Zzippy wrote: »

You're talking nonsense. Without the figures for all mortality for Q4 2020 you have no idea if those 28 are excess mortality or would have died of other causes, but you're happy to say the latter is likely. Seriously, you're extrapolating from incomplete data and drawing conclusions that cannot be drawn. It's not just stupid, it's stupidly irresponsilble and feeds the narrative of those who would claim that HSE etc are inflating Covid death numbers. Almost as if that was your intent...

And this is nearly exactly the point of the article they linked to. Baffling stuff

_Whimsical_

27 cases today
(what the hell Galway, it was 5 yesterday!)

The conference news was good though.
r rate almost at 0.6 - ideally we want it at 0.5 to emerge from lockdown. We are on track but need all of the projected level 5 period for it be achieved.

By Dec 1st we should have less than 100 cases nationally if we adhere strictly to guidelines until then.

Rate per 100k dropped greatly amongst 19-24s, down from over 400 to 90ish.

Hospitalisations and ICU admissions are only "stable at best" currently. That needs to improve in the next few weeks.

_Whimsical_

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

By Dec 1st we should have less than 100 cases nationally if we adhere strictly to guidelines until then.

Even at a low rate of 100 a day after Dec 1st wouldn't bode well for the Xmas merriment period

kippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Even at a low rate of 100 a day after Dec 1st wouldn't bode well for the Xmas merriment period

It would depend how people went about their daily lives. But a cases of 100 a day with an r0 less than 0.6 would be grand.
100 a day is a really low number, only about 3000 cases per month....

_Whimsical_

Galway City Central LEA now has a 14-day Covid rate of 134.8, down from over 1,000 per 100,000 people just two weeks ago.

The other two LEAs in Galway city now have very similar rates to Galway City Central.

Conamara South recorded the second largest decrease in their Covid-19 rate, down from 346.8 cases per 100,000 last week to just 60.9 this week.

Brilliant news! Go Galway!

From Galway Daily.

kippy

kippy wrote: »

It would depend how people went about their daily lives. But a cases of 100 a day with an r0 less than 0.6 would be grand.
100 a day is a really low number, only about 3000 cases per month....

You'll note I specifically mentioned the xmas merriment period i.e. a week and a half of house visits, parties, piss-ups and sessions, none of which is conducive to maintaining social distance or mask wearing.

Myself and the wife and seriously thinking of avoiding all family over the period because we know there's 2 or 3 who will do the dog on it and put the rest at risk

kippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You'll note I specifically mentioned the xmas merriment period i.e. a week and a half of house visits, parties, piss-ups and sessions, none of which is conducive to maintaining social distance or mask wearing.

Myself and the wife and seriously thinking of avoiding all family over the period because we know there's 2 or 3 who will do the dog on it and put the rest at risk

As I said tis down to people's behaviour but one would suggest that at those numbers the chances of being in the same close amount of space as someone with the disease is greatly reduced.

Mrs OBumble

Zzippy wrote: »

You're talking nonsense. Without the figures for all mortality for Q4 2020 you have no idea if those 28 are excess mortality or would have died of other causes, but you're happy to say the latter is likely. Seriously, you're extrapolating from incomplete data and drawing conclusions that cannot be drawn. It's not just stupid, it's stupidly irresponsilble and feeds the narrative of those who would claim that HSE etc are inflating Covid death numbers. Almost as if that was your intent...

Oh come on.

Final mortality and excess deaths figures for Q4 2000 won't be available for months. But the 2019 figure gives a perfectly adequate order of magnitude. 28 * 3 is not just less than 1000, it's vastly less. It's clear that the death rate is not the issue that the early pandemic suggested it might be.

The reason we need to do more than just keep hospital numbers manageable is that the long-term impact of this disease on human beings is unknown. Nothing to do with the death rate.

And this habit of attributing conspiracy-theory attributes to anyone who questions the narrative is really quite odious. It encourages a very dangerous group-think approach.

xckjoo

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Oh come on.

Final mortality and excess deaths figures for Q4 2000 won't be available for months. But the 2019 figure gives a perfectly adequate order of magnitude. 28 * 3 is not just less than 1000, it's vastly less. It's clear that the death rate is not the issue that the early pandemic suggested it might be.

The reason we need to do more than just keep hospital numbers manageable is that the long-term impact of this disease on human beings is unknown. Nothing to do with the death rate.

And this habit of attributing conspiracy-theory attributes to anyone who questions the narrative is really quite odious. It encourages a very dangerous group-think approach.

Where are you getting 28 x 3 from? If you read the article you linked to it points out that real numbers aren't known until a while after the fact as deaths have to be registered too. I've no problem with questioning the narrative but you can't just cherry pick numbers to confirm your theories.

bodhrandude

In latest news the national figures for cases is 456 and Galway has went up to 27 cases.

Gadgetman496

And 6 additional deaths

_Whimsical_

Nephet concerned that 5 day rolling average around the country has risen by over 40 from the previous 5 days.

gadarnol

These numbers are beginning to hover around the same mark. Next week will bear watching.

Mrs OBumble

xckjoo wrote: »

Where are you getting 28 x 3 from? If you read the article you linked to it points out that real numbers aren't known until a while after the fact as deaths have to be registered too. I've no problem with questioning the narrative but you can't just cherry pick numbers to confirm your theories.

As at 10 Nov, they'd announced 28. 10 November is 1/3 of the way through the month. So 28*3 gives a rough idea, for purposes of reacting to "X deaths is Too Many".

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Nephet concerned that 5 day rolling average around the country has risen by over 40 from the previous 5 days.

Is it co-incidence that the has happened when the germ transmission centres (aka schools) re-opened? I'd guess not.

_Whimsical_

There was some hopeful news on the radio this morning. Luke O'Neil, consultant immunologist and general Covid know it all was talking about the current state of play in treatment and research. He said mortality rates have fallen by 70% in the last 6 months due to introduction of drug treatments and better patient management, eg proning patients in hospital. Even better, another arthritis drug by Eli Lilly that is currently in production and in use in other conditions so has passed safety tests, is being tested for Covid treatment and phase two of that trial is reporting it results in another 75% drop in mortality rates. It should be in use in hospitals in the next few months all going well. They pretty much said that based on these factors and even just 20% uptake on vaccines in vulnerable groups should see Covid being the equivalent of a very bad flu by summer and that we can expect life being back to normal by mid to late next year. We just have to hold tight for a while.

Another point made was that if we aren't careful we could see a worse than ever outbreak of Covid in January with very high mortality due to overcrowding etc so it's imperative to stick with caution during Dec.

Also, there are currently 50 health staff being infected every week and they need time off for recovery self-isolation, many are struggling to return to work at all for a lengthy period due to long Covid. That'll be another huge stress on our healthcare capacity so very important to be careful the virus doesn't proliferate in order to protect them.

saabsaab

Like some other areas there is a creep upwards in numbers. Schools?

_Whimsical_

10 new cases in Galway tonight. Good going Galway.


News from the conference is that the 5 day average has now increased by 80!
That stuff from last week about us being on track to successfully leave lockdown and have some degree of Christmas was all based on modeling on considerably lower numbers than we are now seeing. Here's hoping people buck up.

Mrs OBumble

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Here's hoping people buck up.

By refusing to send their kids to school?

_Whimsical_

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

By refusing to send their kids to school?

By not congregating in any setting including having large funerals. Sadly some of the increase in numbers is being traced back to that.

Schools had one week off and the trajectory of cases was on a downward curve before that. I'm sure the return to school has had some impact , might slow the declining trend, but I don't think it should add considerably to numbers.

kippy

saabsaab wrote: »

Like some other areas there is a creep upwards in numbers. Schools?

Not if you look at the age profiles of cases.

gordongekko

kippy wrote: »

Not if you look at the age profiles of cases.

As trump said. If you don't test you've no cases

kippy

gordongekko wrote: »

As trump said. If you don't test you've no cases

There were over 75000 tests in the past 7 days....

gordongekko

kippy wrote: »

There were over 75000 tests in the past 7 days....

Of school kids.... No chance

kippy

gordongekko wrote: »

Of school kids.... No chance

So you are saying no school kids have been tested in the past 7 days essentially.....
Can anyone advise whether they know of a kid from 0 to 18 tested in the past 7 days because I know of several locally

gordongekko

kippy wrote: »

So you are saying no school kids have been tested in the past 7 days essentially.....
Can anyone advise whether they know of a kid from 0 to 18 tested in the past 7 days because I know of several locally

I Never said that either

kippy

gordongekko wrote: »

I Never said that either

So tell us, what exactly are you saying or does being obtuse go with the territory?

Mrs OBumble

kippy wrote: »

Not if you look at the age profiles of cases.

When schools are open, school-bus-drivers, teachers, SNAs, caretakers and school secretaries are at work, and in close contact with a minimum of dozens of people each day. Parents are mingling at school gates. Cherubs are taking bugs home, and facilitating household transmission.

At least funerals are one off events. Schools are meeting 5 days/week.