Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

_Whimsical_

In happier news , 5 day in Galway!

gordongekko

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

We were well on track for it even last week, there shouldn't have been a need to factor in the possibility that cases would rise again mid way through, that we'd go from household outbreaks in the region of 400 to over 900 in a week. R number has now jumped from .6 last week to between .7 and .9 this week. This was all avoidable. We need to grasp the fact that we are responsible..

Liverpool won the first game of their season. That left them on track for for 112 points for the season. They've now dropped some points and won't hot that target. Was 112 points ever a realistic target?

xckjoo

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

I agree, it would help, online should be an easy option for kids in that age bracket.

Maybe in theory but not in reality. It's not easy to study online. Even the mature students I know in 3rd level are finding it a massive struggle and they aren't teenagers.

Panda5000

gordongekko wrote: »

Liverpool won the first game of their season. That left them on track for for 112 points for the season. They've now dropped some points and won't hot that target. Was 112 points ever a realistic target?

The modelling wasn't based on the numbers from Day 1 of Level 5.

Mrs OBumble

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

....
Right now age demographics of increased cases are most likely 30s-40s reporting increase in contacts, they are not school kids.

Ie the parents of school kids. I wonder where they're getting the virus from.

kippy

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Ie the parents of school kids. I wonder where they're getting the virus from.

Initially you were against all schools being open, I am glad to see you have at least focused in on the age groups where the virus WAS most prevalent in at least.

There are two things that are currently impacting on numbers that the "general public" can do very little MORE about.
Cases in Hospitals (stating the obivous I know, but more so getting the virus while in hospital and staff), Cases in Care homes. There seem to be problems here and removing these figures paints things in a better light for the general population so if focus is needed currently it is on activities in these areas.

Outside of that I am not seeing any evidence currently that schools are a major issue, or even the older classes in schools, however if that changes I do believe sending the older classes in schools home for a few weeks, isn't as major and issue as many believe it could be.

gordongekko

Panda5000 wrote: »

The modelling wasn't based on the numbers from Day 1 of Level 5.

We actually haven't been told how they modelled that we'd be able to get to 100 cases a day and that's the whole point. It doesn't look like it was ever achievable under the current restrictions as it would have required a more that 90 % reduction in cases when our earlier much stricter lockdown only achieved a 87% reduction in cases.

saabsaab

Ventilation, masks, washing your hands and staying away from other people that's what's needed. Too many not following this.

kippy

gordongekko wrote: »

We actually haven't been told how they modelled that we'd be able to get to 100 cases a day and that's the whole point. It doesn't look like it was ever achievable under the current restrictions as it would have required a more that 90 % reduction in cases when our earlier much stricter lockdown only achieved a 87% reduction in cases.

As I mentioned above, I thin the cases that are happening IN healthcare facilities need to be split out from the rest of the cases we are seeing to give us a true reflection of how things are looking in the community.

saabsaab wrote: »

Ventilation, masks, washing your hands and staying away from other people that's what's needed. Too many not following this.

There are an awful lot of people doing the right thing most of the time, and doing the right thing most of the time does not mean you won't get the virus.

saabsaab

kippy wrote: »

As I mentioned above, I thin the cases that are happening IN healthcare facilities need to be split out from the rest of the cases we are seeing to give us a true reflection of how things are looking in the community.



There are an awful lot of people doing the right thing most of the time, and doing the right thing most of the time does not mean you won't get the virus.

True enough but if you look at this from a statistical point of view the chances are much reduced the rate overall will decrease, eventually.

kippy

saabsaab wrote: »

True enough but if you look at this from a statistical point of view the chances are much reduced the rate overall will decrease, eventually.

I don't disagree.
My point is there are people doing as many things right as they can - doesn't mean they wont get the virus.

Zzippy

gordongekko wrote: »

Liverpool won the first game of their season. That left them on track for for 112 points for the season. They've now dropped some points and won't hot that target. Was 112 points ever a realistic target?

38 x 3 = 114.

bodhrandude

318 cases nationally today and 9 cases from Galway.

bodhrandude

bodhrandude wrote: »

318 cases nationally today and 9 cases from Galway.

If right was right, we would be going back to L2 next week.

Annoys me that they developed this county by county plan and just abandoned it immediately.

Theres no reason that businesses and citizens here should be held back, because of counties at the top of that list.

Some to L2, others to L3 and if the ones at the top need to stay at 4 or 5 so be it.

beardybrewer

It could go back to county by county. Remember the initial resistance to skip a level so it could be the best we'll get is L4.

saabsaab

beardybrewer wrote: »

It could go back to county by county. Remember the initial resistance to skip a level so it could be the best we'll get is L4.

I'd say this time there will be less resistance and we will go to Level 3 or even 2/2+

bodhrandude

Nationally 226 cases today and 6 deaths, 6 cases from Galway.

serfboard

Galway now fifth best in country on 14-day incidence rate.

Other thing to note from the figures, is that, from nowhere, Tipperary becomes the third worst affected county, in pure numbers.

I hope that's not at all related to the fact that at the weekend, they just won their first provincial football final in 85 years ... #Moycullen2?

Fitz*

serfboard wrote: »

I hope that's not at all related to the fact that at the weekend, they just won their first provincial football final in 85 years ... #Moycullen2?

There was confirmed cases in schools in Thurles before the football final had taken place.

Blondie919

serfboard wrote: »

Galway now fifth best in country on 14-day incidence rate.

Other thing to note from the figures, is that, from nowhere, Tipperary becomes the third worst affected county, in pure numbers.

I hope that's not at all related to the fact that at the weekend, they just won their first provincial football final in 85 years ... #Moycullen2?

Probably a bit too early to tell that?

saabsaab

They may declare certain counties with low incidence like Galway as L2 first to see how it goes. Not so inclined to open up others as fast?

gordongekko

saabsaab wrote: »

They may declare certain counties with low incidence like Galway as L2 first to see how it goes. Not so inclined to open up others as fast?

When Dublin was at L3 and we were at L2 the town was full of dubs at the weekend

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

They may declare certain counties with low incidence like Galway as L2 first to see how it goes. Not so inclined to open up others as fast?

That would make too much sense.

serfboard

saabsaab wrote: »

They may declare certain counties with low incidence like Galway as L2 first to see how it goes. Not so inclined to open up others as fast?

You could have three levels based on 14-day incidence rate: <100, <200 and >200. The number of counties in each currently are 14, 10 and 2 (Donegal and Louth). I'd put these counties on Levels 3, 4 and 5.

You could even have a lower target of <50, if you were thinking of going to L2. Currently, Wexford is the only county at that rate.

I see that last night's figures had Galway at <5 cases. Getting very close to zero now.

Mrs OBumble

gordongekko wrote: »

When Dublin was at L3 and we were at L2 the town was full of dubs at the weekend

Snipers at the borders so.

_Whimsical_

saabsaab wrote: »

They may declare certain counties with low incidence like Galway as L2 first to see how it goes. Not so inclined to open up others as fast?

I'd be inclined to stay at level 3. Ultimately if we go back to L2 the virus will proliferate - it's lived experience now, we can't pretend otherwise. At level three we have a chance of preventing that, keeping retail and it's workers in jobs, keeping take away for cafes etc and more importantly keeping healthcare up and running freely - no one scared to go to the GP or the hospital during Jan - March which are the worst months for the health service. It's a sacrifice, but opening up more and ending up nervous visiting parents, going to the Dr/dentist/doing things you cant avoid, and worrying about another lockdown is a bigger sacrifice. There's an end in sight now at least with vaccines and better treatments on the horizon. I think we should buckle down for these few months and run everything we can run safely, but take no major risks at least for winter. L2 worked better in summer because socialising could be done outside, now it's not so much of an option, I think that's why everything exploded between sept and mid/end oct.

I see sheep

Pubs will die if they can't open for Xmas, what's Galway city without pubs??

beardybrewer

Here's my prediction....

Whatever level they decide they'll add a bunch of changes and caveats so nobody really knows where we're at. It's clear across Europe, even in countries not doing as well as here, they've decided it's imperative to get shops open in December so they aren't crushed and to give the people a pass for the holidays so they don't revolt. A sizable subset of people will travel, visit over the holidays, drink and enjoy themselves. Social media will be all a flutter commenting on disgraceful behaviour. Then in Jan we'll pop back up to L4 or L5 to get it under control but neither side will mind during a quiet dry January anyway.

Bobeagleburger

beardybrewer wrote: »

Here's my prediction....

Whatever level they decide they'll add a bunch of changes and caveats so nobody really knows where we're at. It's clear across Europe, even in countries not doing as well as here, they've decided it's imperative to get shops open in December so they aren't crushed and to give the people a pass for the holidays so they don't revolt. A sizable subset of people will travel, visit over the holidays, drink and enjoy themselves. Social media will be all a flutter commenting on disgraceful behaviour. Then in Jan we'll pop back up to L4 or L5 to get it under control but neither side will mind during a quiet dry January anyway.

May as well go to level 1 or 2 in that case.

Also, I know Luxembourg have announced bars and restaurant closed for 3 weeks from this week. Not sure about other European countries.

_Whimsical_

beardybrewer wrote: »

Here's my prediction....

Whatever level they decide they'll add a bunch of changes and caveats so nobody really knows where we're at. It's clear across Europe, even in countries not doing as well as here, they've decided it's imperative to get shops open in December so they aren't crushed and to give the people a pass for the holidays so they don't revolt. A sizable subset of people will travel, visit over the holidays, drink and enjoy themselves. Social media will be all a flutter commenting on disgraceful behaviour. Then in Jan we'll pop back up to L4 or L5 to get it under control but neither side will mind during a quiet dry January anyway.

Not sure Europe will be quite so lax this time. Last time WHO encouraged opening and dropping lockdown as a strategy, it's very much changed it's tune and is now urging caution and a slow and careful lifting of restrictions. We aren't dealing in theoretical possible outcomes now, we have seen that 6 weeks of normal-ish winter life, socialising indoors, living life high on the Level two hog, got us an equal period of a crippled economy and social life. The only responsible way forward now is to work to suppress.

You do have to remember in the last weeks alone around 50 health staff were getting infected and many were struggling to return to work due to long Covid. There are 535 essential staff absent with Covid right now. 2000 cancer diagnosis are estimated to be missed because people are to afraid to go to hospital.
Also level 3 costs around .5 billion euro for a 6 week period. Level 5 costs 1.5bn. The cost in economic and human terms of letting it fly are enormous. I don't think us having our bit of fun or letting the pubs milk the handful of customers they can legit fit can be a priority for any govt.