Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

JCX BXC

Sconsey wrote: »

The director of public health for the west of Ireland would disagree with your assessment, I'm inclined to think she knows more about it than you or I...


As pointed out in my earlier post the figures for yesterday do show a small dicrease in the 14 day incdence rate, hopefully that continues.

I'm simply saying the cases haven't increased, hence it's a bizzare comment. Perhaps there's some unreleased information indicating a surge, however the publically available information does not show this and those telling us of a surge aren't saying how exactly they know this if case numbers haven't risen. (From the articles, it appears to be made out that case numbers are extremely high here, untrue).

A one day increase is not a trend of numbers increasing, and to make it out as such is blatantly misleading.

These points are true, and a faux dismissal under the pretence that someone else 'knows better' won't change this.

If the situation is infact deteriorating in Galway, how so is it?

serfboard

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm simply saying the cases haven't increased, hence it's a bizzare comment. Perhaps there's some unreleased information indicating a surge, however the publically available information does not show this and those telling us of a surge aren't saying how exactly they know this if case numbers haven't risen.

Since January 11, the daily case numbers in Galway are (figures from Gavin Reilly's tweet posted here earlier):

604, 200, 217, 187, 132, 181, 84, 73

Doesn't look like increasing numbers to me. As you say, why say the numbers are increasing when the numbers that you are putting out don't indicate that?

Sconsey

serfboard wrote: »

Since January 11, the daily case numbers in Galway are (figures from Gavin Reilly's tweet posted here earlier):

604, 200, 217, 187, 132, 181, 84, 73

Doesn't look like increasing numbers to me. As you say, why say the numbers are increasing when the numbers that you are putting out don't indicate that?

The posts I was talking about were referring to the 14 day incidence per 100,000, here are the recent figures:

18 Jan 1054
17 Jan 1082
16 Jan 1095
15 Jan 1087
14 Jan 1089

12 Jan 1049
11 Jan 1033
10 Jan 815
9 Jan 735
8 Jan 688
7 Jan 640

5 Jan 509
4 Jan 456
3 Jan 417

serfboard

Sconsey wrote: »

The posts I was talking about were referring to the 14 day incidence per 100,000, here are the recent figures:

18 Jan 1054
17 Jan 1082
16 Jan 1095
15 Jan 1087
14 Jan 1089

12 Jan 1049
11 Jan 1033
10 Jan 815
9 Jan 735
8 Jan 688
7 Jan 640

5 Jan 509
4 Jan 456
3 Jan 417

OK, but these 14-day incidence numbers are comprised of case numbers which are declining.

And in fact, (16 Jan 1095, 17 Jan 1082, 18 Jan 1054) the 14-day incidence numbers are now declining as well - so where's the increase?

Sconsey

serfboard wrote: »

OK, but these 14-day incidence numbers are comprised of case numbers which are declining.

And in fact, (16 Jan 1095, 17 Jan 1082, 18 Jan 1054) the 14-day incidence numbers are now declining as well - so where's the increase?

Three days ago those numbers were increasing (granted marginally), and they were increasing when we were well into level 5. You would expect them to be declining on the third week of lockdown.

Up to the 17th of January the numbers are clearly increasing no?

serfboard

Sconsey wrote: »

Three days ago those numbers were increasing (granted marginally), and they were increasing when we were well into level 5. You would expect them to be declining on the third week of lockdown.

Up to the 17th of January the numbers are clearly increasing no?

I don't dispute the last part, but the 14-day figures are lagging numbers of an increase that is already over.

The point is, the numbers were increasing, but are now declining.

If the Dr involved had made her statement a week ago, I would have no issue. Sounds a bit "after the horse has bolted" kind of a statement now.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

Ah here, so now not only are you saying the numbers are fake with nothing to back it up, you are now trying to say the CMO is in agreement with you. My don't we think a lot of ourselves.



Your approach to this is more akin to having a bucket in your hand at the beach saying you filled it so now the tide will stop coming in



Proof?

You are misquoting me! I didn't say they were fake but they are wrong in relation to foreign travel cases. Even Tony Houlihan backs that up with that statement but you seem to want to have a go at me over it rather than accept it.

grbear

serfboard wrote: »

I don't dispute the last part, but the 14-day figures are lagging numbers of an increase that is already over.

The point is, the numbers were increasing, but are now declining.

If the Dr involved had made her statement a week ago, I would have no issue. Sounds a bit "after the horse has bolted" kind of a statement now.

Is there a more detailed map out there that shows the breakdown between city and county? Maybe it's a case of Galway City improving but the more rural areas worsening and that's what the warning is about. I know it's supposedly serious around Tuam for instance but I can't say if it's getting better or worse over the last week.

_Whimsical_

grbear wrote: »

Is there a more detailed map out there that shows the breakdown between city and county? Maybe it's a case of Galway City improving but the more rural areas worsening and that's what the warning is about. I know it's supposedly serious around Tuam for instance but I can't say if it's getting better or worse over the last week.

The warning mentions Oranmore, Tuam and Galway city as the areas of concern currently.

I know a few people who've got it in the city recently who have no idea where they got it and now assume it was brief trips out to shops.

what_traffic

grbear wrote: »

Is there a more detailed map out there that shows the breakdown between city and county? Maybe it's a case of Galway City improving but the more rural areas worsening and that's what the warning is about. I know it's supposedly serious around Tuam for instance but I can't say if it's getting better or worse over the last week.

Yes, can get it here; problem is that it is not updated daily from what I can see
Can drill into the Local Electoral Area (LEA)
https://covid-19.geohive.ie/

All the data for Galway LEA is up to the 11-01-2021

The Covid tracker app - has more up to date info.

saabsaab

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

The warning mentions Oranmore, Tuam and Galway city as the areas of concern currently.

I know a few people who've got it in the city recently who have no idea where they got it and now assume it was brief trips out to shops.

Of course you can get it in the shop. Probably recorded under Community Transmission which is the equivalent of 'other' in a survey.

Storm 10

Galway 148 cases

serfboard

Storm 10 wrote: »

Galway 148 cases

I read on Twitter that they're back testing some close contacts, so I'd expect the numbers to go up again. Some close contacts would be asymptomatic, and so would not have shown up in recent numbers.

Maybe this is what the Dr. was referring to? There are more cases because now that we're testing close contacts again, they are showing up?

Sconsey

Sconsey wrote: »

The posts I was talking about were referring to the 14 day incidence per 100,000, here are the recent figures:

Galway's 14 day incident rate may/will be inflated due to that late dump of backlog cases, some of which may/will predate the 14 day window.

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

You are misquoting me!

The quote is your own words

saabsaab wrote: »

I didn't say they were fake but they are wrong in relation to foreign travel cases.

Fake/wrong, again I'll ask, please provide proof that this is the case?

Don't forget this data is based on responses from the tested people themselves so I'm very curious to see where you are getting your data from. My guess is its being plucked from the thin air, but I'll grant you the benefit of the doubt and let you provide the data that shows the 1% is incorrect.

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

The quote is your own words



Fake/wrong, again I'll ask, please provide proof that this is the case?

Don't forget this data is based on responses from the tested people themselves so I'm very curious to see where you are getting your data from. My guess is its being plucked from the thin air, but I'll grant you the benefit of the doubt and let you provide the data that shows the 1% is incorrect.

No it is not my words I'll quote again 'The 1% figure is clearly wrong.' wrong for whatever reason I did not use 'fake' perhaps you don't understand the difference between the two?


The responses may not be truthful and it is clear to me and Mr Holohan that our situation shows that this is a significant factor and will continue to be as we import newer variants.

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

No it is not my words I'll quote again 'The 1% figure is clearly wrong.' wrong for whatever reason I did not use 'fake' perhaps you don't understand the difference between the two?

Again, I think for the third time, I ask for proof that this figure is wrong/fake whatever you want to call it

If you are basing your assessment on your own imagination and have no proof, then just say so

saabsaab

Deleted User wrote: »

Again, I think for the third time, I ask for proof that this figure is wrong/fake whatever you want to call it

If you are basing your assessment on your own imagination and have no proof, then just say so

See below - Just from one flight! It is clear to anyone that want's to see it that it's a big problem. Why does Mr Holohan say it was significant?


'Passengers on a flight to Dublin led to the spread of 59 Covid-19 cases around the country.
A report into the outbreak states the laboratory-confirmed cases were linked to an international flight into Ireland in summer 2020.
That 7.5 hour-long flight, in which 49 of its 283 seats were filled, is believed to have landed at Dublin Airport in June.
The HSE was unable to contact 11 of the 49 passengers on board, and one of the passengers refused to be tested for Covid-19.'

Weak sauce mate, you don't have anything beyond your imagination, thanks for the clarification.

You should have just said it right at the start and saved us all a bit of time.

saabsaab

Go ahead and accept the unsound 1% figure. It just doesn't stack up with what is going on with new variants.


Another quote from someone who studies this about air travel risk
Daft to dismiss those who study this.


'The professor of community health at DCU Anthony Staines said the findings “defy logic” and were “really really dangerous”.
He said it seemed as if “Europe is throwing itself under the bus and this is a risk” and he suggested the guidelines had been brought out ahead of Christmas “to get people travelling again before the holidays and that is insane.”
He pointed out that the Australian city of Melbourne, which had largely contained the virus several months ago, had a wave of infections as a result of one passenger who arrived into the city and did not follow quarantine rules'

zell12

From Sunday Times in Ocober

Mrs OBumble

saabsaab wrote: »

The 1% figure is clearly wrong. What happened in New Zealand? Of course essential services would continue. We can't stop it coming but we can reduce the flow significantly and be in a position to isolate reduce and ultimately with the aid of vaccines stop it or stop new variants at least. What about new variants from say Canada or Turkey which could scupper any plans.

I agree with you that the 1% figure is likely lower than the actual proportion of cases actually due to international travel: if someone who has travelled infects one person, and that person infect another, then only one case is attributed to travel, even though if no travel had happened, both cases wouldn't have.

But it is totally unrealistic to think that we could stop all flights. Ireland is totally different to New Zealand: they don't have any land borders, the closest international destination is still a 4-5 hour flight so relatively fewer people travel for work, their economy has very few jobs which are based on foreign-language speakers living there. Even with all those factors, the NZ media has lots of stories about people being unable to see dying relatives, married people who were away travelling for work etc being unable to get back to their spouse (unless the spouse travels internationally to escort them home), etc.

I doubt we could implement quarantine NZ/OZ style either due to the volume - and even with their approach, there are still cases that get into the community via the staff who work there.

We can make the biggest difference to case numbers by modifying domestic behaviours to reduce inter-household transmissions.

saabsaab

Of course modifying our inter household interactions is vital but a vital part of this is international travel, the ultimate inter household interaction. We can stop unnecessary air travel and that would reduce the chances of importing new variants.

it's not an either / Or choice.

_Whimsical_

Frightening given that it's this wk and next that we will see a surge in Galway.

More than 450 staff – including nurses at UHG and Portiuncula – are now out of work due to Covid, as staff shortages threaten the public hospitals’ ability to cope with the crisis.

The upsurge has seen UHG deal with a record number of Covid-19 patients, and the hospital had to escalate its surge capacity plan and add extra beds in ICU.

https://connachttribune.ie/hard-pressed-hospitals-down-450-staff-over-covid-154/?fbclid=IwAR1myErXAvSrIE2ZIBmMTwwDBKtpzf69Rt3q7SeaTLHKrN2toB85BHOXcbM

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

Of course modifying our inter household interactions is vital but a vital part of this is international travel, the ultimate inter household interaction. We can stop unnecessary air travel and that would reduce the chances of importing new variants.

it's not an either / Or choice.

Whats your plan for dealing with those landing in belfast?

Moyglish

Just wondering if anyone has had a Covid swab test done here at the Drive-Thru sites?

Does someone do the test for you or are you giving the swab and let do it yourself?

saabsaab

We shouldn't just sit back and say there is nothing we can do


'The lack of mandatory quarantine for people arriving in Ireland is a 'hole in the roof' of Ireland's coronavirus strategy, Dr Gabriel Scally says. He said the country is busy 'mopping up after a disastrous set of relaxations' before Christmas, but the virus can still arrive into the country through ports and airports.

Currently, anyone arriving here must have evidence of a negative COVID-19 PCR test 72 hours before arrival. People are then advised to restrict their movements, while those arriving from Britain, South Africa or South America are advised to self isolate for a full 14 days.


However, many experts have called for the likes of hotels to be used for mandatory quarantine instead - as has been done in the likes of New Zealand - instead of the current approach.

Public health expert Dr Scally told Moncrieff the current travel rules in the Republic and Northern Ireland are simply too lax. He said: “We know the virus came from Britain and Ireland from abroad, and we know it has continued to come.

“We know that there isn’t really any barrier to that spread. “Particularly now when we know there are dangerous variants cropping up across the world, having open borders to the virus is really, really bad news." He said the new variants - such as one originally detected in Brazil - seem to be more transmissible, and in a worst-case scenario may even be able to 'dodge the vaccines'.

He suggested the only way to deal with the virus is to 'keep it at arm's length', and that means strict controls at ports and airports'

biko

Moyglish wrote: »

Just wondering if anyone has had a Covid swab test done here at the Drive-Thru sites?

Does someone do the test for you or are you giving the swab and let do it yourself?

They do it for you. Regular people like you and I don't know how to do it ourselves.

_Whimsical_

I think we need the hotel quarantine idea here, at least to try it, I don't see what there is to lose that we have not already lost? We should at least trial it.

In the last week I have heard of 2 couples living in Galway who are planning foreign breaks/holidays in the next few weeks while they can't work here and their kids can't attend school. 1 couple are going to visit family in the EU, one couple is planning to fly to an EU country where they'll then board a flight to a Latin American country to stay in a resort there for 3 weeks because accommodation in a 5 star place is cheap! They're joining friends from Ireland who are already there! No attempts to try explain how they'll be jockeying for some very poor hospital provision while there if anything goes wrong has any impact.

I'm sure this is a very small minority, or I really hope so, but there is no current deterrent for those determined to break the rules in place. Hotel quarantine would I'd think. These people believe they'll be tested once they arrive back here, restrict movement for 5 days, get another test and it'll be grand. I can't imagine they'll actually restrict movement either with their current attitude.

shenanagans

I don't believe the whole hotel quarantine will come in here. Just here Leo V being quoted on radio, he says 33,000 travelled into Ireland over last week and all were for essential travel.

He can't guarantee that everyone of those 33k were essential travel. Non-sense.

No one should be allowed board a flight here without the test evidence. If they arrive in then mandatory quarantine should be implemented...IMO. I think the public would support mandatory quarantine for people not adhering to the test requirements.