Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

westgolf

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Todays rate of 1.177 is down again on yesterday which is great to see.

Graph updated for todays numbers.

Blue = Continue at the same rate
Green = Rate of 1.1
Yellow = Rate of 1.2
Red = Rate of 1.3



The last few days make it look like a corner has been turned and things are stabilising. Based on the increased controls enacted earlier, we should hopefully see a drop towards 1.1 as the weekend approaches. The gains from the additional measures announced yesterday won't be seen until towards the middle/end of next week when, all things going to plan, we should be closing in on a rate of 1.

Just wanted to say thank you Dacor, putting some structure and analysis on a tough topic. Keep her lit 🔥 & Thanks.

ChewyLouie

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Todays rate of 1.177 is down again on yesterday which is great to see.

Great to see but thousands of people with symptoms haven't been tested and many will now not be tested. I know 3 people in Galway who have 2 or 3 of the symptoms but were knocked off the waiting list today because they're managing the illness at home and don't need medical help. Told just to self isolate. 2 of them had been working in the healthcare sector.

_Whimsical_

Numbers affected will become increasingly irrelevant as testing is reduced to smaller groups.
What we now probably change focus to looking at is hospitalisation, number of icu dependant patients and deaths.
I think they said on the news we now have 60 icu patients due to this in Ireland. It's jumped from 6 at the weekend.

One piece of very hopeful info I stole from reddit is below.
It shows the expected cases vs the icu beds available as a result of all the work done in recent weeks by health services to prepare hospitals. If we continue to isolate well it shows that the curve of projected cases will come in under the level of available beds. This is the best case scenario for us and if we all pull together it can come to pass.

https://imgur.com/tRLEntl

Fair play to medical staff who've worked so hard for us already. A Dr on tv last night said the Mater in Dubin had gone from have 14 icu beds to 200 in the last 2 weeks due to restructuring. He said it's being repeated around the country. Bare in mind until recently we had 250 icu beds for the entire country. It's pretty amazing. If they can pull that off, we can isolate.

ChewyLouie

ChewyLouie wrote: »

Great to see but thousands of people with symptoms haven't been tested and many will now not be tested. I know 3 people in Galway who have 2 or 3 of the symptoms but were knocked off the waiting list today because they're managing the illness at home and don't need medical help. Told just to self isolate. 2 of them had been working in the healthcare sector.

I understand what you are saying and you are not wrong, but a few points

First, I can only analyse the data as provided. Those not tested will never show up.

Second, there was always going to be a significant portion of people who were not going to be captured as they had mild to no symptoms. Unless you are testing 100% of the people 100% of the time, you are going to miss some.

Third, the reclassification of testing requirements is precisely due to the stabilisation that I pointed out. Triage of the triage if you will

Bobeagleburger

If that projection above is true it'll be an amazing outcome.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

The last few days make it look like a corner has been turned and things are stabilising. Based on the increased controls enacted earlier, we should hopefully see a drop towards 1.1 as the weekend approaches. The gains from the additional measures announced yesterday won't be seen until towards the middle/end of next week when, all things going to plan, we should be closing in on a rate of 1.

Figures look good, moving average of daily increases are in a good range
But we need increased measures and kill it off, completely, not become complacent. No one is wearing masks in the public, for example.

Now, a big concern is, we manage to push it to very low increases and effectively kill it (say like Korea). How do we prevent importation of cases from infested countries? Infested countries are - Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Netherlands and UK especially.

dummy_crusher

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

One piece of very hopeful info I stole from reddit is below.
It shows the expected cases vs the icu beds available as a result of all the work done in recent weeks by health services to prepare hospitals. If we continue to isolate well it shows that the curve of projected cases will come in under the level of available beds. This is the best case scenario for us and if we all pull together it can come to pass.

https://imgur.com/tRLEntl

Updated with second y-axis: https://imgur.com/a/PwevkFI

Credit: /u/IrishDataViz

_Whimsical_

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Numbers affected will become increasingly irrelevant as testing is reduced to smaller groups.
What we now probably change focus to looking at is hospitalisation, number of icu dependant patients and deaths.
I think they said on the news we now have 60 icu patients due to this in Ireland. It's jumped from 6 at the weekend.
.

It’s 39 have needed ICU and the number has been gradually increasing not jumping up since the weekend.

It’s also very important to remember that the number who needed ICU is a running total same as total number if cases and does not mean there are currently 39 people in ICU but rather that since our 1st case 39 peope have at some point needed ICU.

Doctors room ghost

Does anyone know is the advertiser or tribune out today

ChewyLouie

Deleted User wrote: »

First, I can only analyse the data as provided. Those not tested will never show up.

Understand that and you're doing a mighty job - the updates are great!

thesandeman

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Does anyone know is the advertiser or tribune out today

Yep, both out.

DuckSlice

ChewyLouie wrote: »

Great to see but thousands of people with symptoms haven't been tested and many will now not be tested. I know 3 people in Galway who have 2 or 3 of the symptoms but were knocked off the waiting list today because they're managing the illness at home and don't need medical help. Told just to self isolate. 2 of them had been working in the healthcare sector.

I thought healthcare workers are getting priority testing regardless of number of symptoms or severity?

ax530

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

It’s 39 have needed ICU and the number has been gradually increasing not jumping up since the weekend.

It’s also very important to remember that the number who needed ICU is a running total same as total number if cases and does not mean there are currently 39 people in ICU but rather that since our 1st case 39 peope have at some point needed ICU.

yes I following the ICU numbers, and at 39 it seems managable at the moment which is the best outcome that hospitals can cope with the numbers who are serious. Presume this includes those who have died so not a case that 39 still in ICU.
Promising that so many can manage it at home as I know people who have symptoms and are at home unsure if virus or not but best isolate to be safe, as symptoms some can manage working from home.
DaCor your graphs are very well done thanks for the information

zell12

HSE spokesperson talking Covid19 on GBFM said:
150 beds in galway public hospitals secured
2 private hospitals available
a hotel could be converted to a temp hospital
new graveyard secured

Zzippy

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

It’s 39 have needed ICU and the number has been gradually increasing not jumping up since the weekend.

It’s also very important to remember that the number who needed ICU is a running total same as total number if cases and does not mean there are currently 39 people in ICU but rather that since our 1st case 39 peope have at some point needed ICU.

People with severe covid 19 generally require ICU care for 2 weeks, according to the briefing last night. I believe the number quoted (39) is the number currently in ICU.

WallyGUFC

Zzippy wrote: »

People with severe covid 19 generally require ICU care for 2 weeks, according to the briefing last night. I believe the number quoted (39) is the number currently in ICU.

And it's 39 as of Monday night I believe, not last night.

aw

zell12 wrote: »

HSE spokesperson talking Covid19 on GBFM said:
150 beds in galway public hospitals secured
2 private hospitals available
a hotel could be converted to a temp hospital
new graveyard secured

The most striking part of that :eek:

Doctors room ghost

thesandeman wrote: »

Yep, both out.

Thanks

Mrs OBumble

aw wrote: »

The most striking part of that :eek:

Its been needed for ages. This probably forced their hand to either take a not really good enough location, or to pay more than they wanted to.

Zzippy

Zzippy wrote: »

People with severe covid 19 generally require ICU care for 2 weeks, according to the briefing last night. I believe the number quoted (39) is the number currently in ICU.

I did think this too but if you read the details realised yesterday the wording to me indicates that’s it’s a total number that have required it since the start.

Quote from dept of health:

Over 305 cases - 26% - have been hospitalised so far.

Of those hospitalised cases, 39 have been admitted to ICU.

To me that can only mean it’s an overall not a current number.

_Whimsical_

zell12 wrote: »

HSE spokesperson talking Covid19 on GBFM said:
150 beds in galway public hospitals secured
2 private hospitals available
a hotel could be converted to a temp hospital
new graveyard secured

Are the 150 beds available icu beds?
God it's very stark, feeling very real now.

Happyilylost

_Whimsical_ wrote:

Are the 150 beds available icu beds? God it's very stark, feeling very real now.

45 ICU with the potential to increase. A lot of ward beds made available which may be the 150 number.

gordongekko

This issue with testing comes up again and again. Every country has large waiting lists, all we can do is continue to test and continue to have one of the highest per capita testing in the world. Its worth remembering that only 7% of the people tested have proved to be positive so it was clear that they needed to do a more targeted testing system to catch more positive cases. Most of the minor positive cases are told to isolate anyway so if you think you may have it you need to follow your Gp's instructions to self isolate and if your conditions worsen then contact your GP again.

ArtyC

Sad to see so many campervans today, it’s just not necessary

zell12

where?
is it just people taking easter holidays early?

I’ve heard some beeches around the country were very busy today, not sure of it was the case in Galway though.

Should start fining people, naming and shaming etc.

jobeenfitz

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

I’ve heard some beeches around the country were very busy today, not sure of it was the case in Galway though.

Should start fining people, naming and shaming etc.

Be a little careful with "I've heard". Not always accurate.

Bobeagleburger

Social distancing seems to be brilliantly obeyed by the vast majority. Fair play.

extra gravy

Was suprised to see Le Petit Delice still open this morning. Decided I'd chance a takeaway coffee. Great set up in there to be fair, plenty of signage and 2m rule observed by the two people behind me. Everything done by the server so nobody handling lids/sugar etc. themselves.

zell12

26/03/20 Co Galway cases
45