Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

Interesting chart, however how can the number of total cases fall? That's not possible.

Both you and I are both correct. Confused yet? Basically, I choose to essentially mush together 2 charts into one for the purposes of visualization and not to get too stupidly complicated in my explanations of the data. Take the grey line as the curve being flattened as its neither a exponential nor logistical curve.

JCX BXC wrote: »

Also you're assuming that 1). Everyone has been tested and has the results of their test

I don't assume any greater turnaround time than currently exists

JCX BXC wrote: »

and 2). That nobody will get the coronavirus if the r value is below 1?

Umm no. An r value less than 1 simple means that there will be less new infections tomorrow than today. So an r value of .95 means for 100 infections today, there will be 95 tomorrow, 90 (rounded) the next day, 86 the day after and so on.

JCX BXC wrote: »

Good for modelling case growth with the number of new cases, not so much for total cases.

The actual number of cases will be much greater than that.

100% agree

If we assume that today the total reported cases is 4500, and its the inflection point after which all reported cases begun to reduce in qty, then, for a logistical curve mapping the Irish outbreak, we would finish up with a final tally of 9000 or thereabouts.

I guess to simplify things I should do the r value based on daily reported case #'s rather than total cases

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Umm no. An r value less than 1 simple means that there will be less new infections tomorrow than today. So an r value of .95 means for 100 infections today, there will be 95 tomorrow, 90 (rounded) the next day, 86 the day after and so on.

Well basically it mushes into my first point in regards to how numbers can't possibly fall as your chart suggests, your 0.95r value shows the total number of cases falling to 2084 in 2 weeks, which is incorrect, there'll be 2084 new cases, on top of the existing cases. (if I read that correctly)

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

Well basically it mushes into my first point in regards to how numbers can't possibly fall as your chart suggests, your 0.95r value shows the total number of cases falling to 2084 in 2 weeks, which is incorrect, there'll be 2084 new cases, on top of the existing cases. (if I read that correctly)

Yes, I agree, it was a bad way to present it. I've updated my original post above to add an additional chart which displays daily reported case projections instead, which I think is a better way of illustrating the point.

Diabhal Beag

Passed the prom a half hour ago. Disappointing amount of people on it tbh.

Whereisgalway

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

Passed the prom a half hour ago. Disappointing amount of people on it tbh.

Was there many cars? Maybe these people live within a 2km radius

Diabhal Beag

Whereisgalway wrote: »

Was there many cars? Maybe these people live within a 2km radius

Only 5 or 6 the stretch in front of the Aquarium and the carpark is closed but any other available spots aside from those were taken.

Whereisgalway

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

Only 5 or 6 the stretch in front of the Aquarium and the carpark is closed but any other available spots aside from those were taken.

Shocking, not a garda to be seen

Arghus

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

Passed the prom a half hour ago. Disappointing amount of people on it tbh.

There's definitely more people out and about generally this weekend.

_Whimsical_

On the subject of masks the CDC has recommended all Americans wear a mask going out now. Donald Trump has announced he won't so that will hopefully encourage sensible people to do so.

The head of the CDC, the US Surgeon General, has actually made a video about how to make a homemade mask. It's very simple with no sewing involved, takes 30 seconds and can be made from things you have in your house. I think it's worth sharing.
Typically I can't make the YouTube link preview but it's worth the click.

https://youtu.be/tPx1yqvJgf4. 45 seconds long.

tamara25

I suppose the guards can’t be everywhere policing all the time? People are going stir crazy in their homes, they have to get it out sometimes.. give them a break. If there on their own & keeping away from others then that’s good enough

_Whimsical_

tamara25 wrote: »

I suppose the guards can’t be everywhere policing all the time? People are going stir crazy in their homes, they have to get it out sometimes.. give them a break. If there on their own & keeping away from others then that’s good enough

Well we have 45 icu beds.
A person requiring icu care typically does so for 15 days going by Italian experience but it can be upto 3 weeks.
That's potentially a lot of people who won't get the care they need in Galway,who will die because of that. Who will die on their own without relations present holding a hand and who will be buried with no mass without family being able to be in attendance.
Imagine the effect of that on a family.
Its very bleak and sound dramatic but its true.
I don't get who wouldn't stay home to safe themselves, their family, their friends from that because we are not talking in the abstract now, not saving the world or the country. Its just us in Galway saving ourselves now.

Arghus

People should just stay at home.

I have to work and be out facing the public and I really don't want to do it right now. If I had the option to stay at home I'd bite your hand off for it. Drives me crackers to hear people complaining about having to stay in.

_Whimsical_

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Well we have 45 icu beds.
A person requiring icu care typically does so for 3 weeks.
That's potentially a lot of people who won't get the care they need in Galway,who will die because of that. Who will die on their own without relations present holding a hand and who will be buried with no mass without family being able to be in attendance.
Imagine the effect of that on a family.
Its very bleak and sound dramatic but its true.
I don't get who wouldn't stay home to safe themselves, their family, their friends from that because we are not talking in the abstract now, not saving the world or the country. Its just us in Galway saving ourselves now.

3 weeks? I just read a hiqa report based on studies carried out aboard and the median stay in ICU is 7 to 8 days.

_Whimsical_

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

3 weeks? I just read a hiqa report based on studies carried out aboard and the median stay in ICU is 7 to 8 days.

Sorry I was mistaken. From reading up though Italy has found patients have required an average of 15 days but Drs in Spain and the US more recently said some have required 3 weeks. The Dr I saw speaking about it said not everybody comes off a ventilation well, even with other conditions.

amandstu

Seems the success rate for those on ventilators is not high

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/826105278/ventilators-are-no-panacea-for-critically-ill-covid-19-patients?t=1586100392527

_Whimsical_

Arghus wrote: »

People should just stay at home.

I have to work and be out facing the public and I really don't want to do it right now. If I had the option to stay at home I'd bite your hand off for it. Drives me crackers to hear people complaining about having to stay in.

Really hope for your safety. I really feel for everyone who has to face out to work these days and for their family. Apart from medical staff the other workers who are also risking their health to provide services, from shop employees to postmen, are getting no real thanks in the media etc and it's not right. I have to say I feel very thankful to everyone who is working and I hope everyone else does their part to keep those people as safe as can be.

Wear a mask , be mindful of employees at checkouts and in store. Give your doorbell and letter box a clean for your postman, wipe down the bin handle for the binman. All those little things we can all do to try keep everyone well.

Massive thanks to everyone still working though.

dastardly00

tamara25 wrote: »

I suppose the guards can’t be everywhere policing all the time? People are going stir crazy in their homes, they have to get it out sometimes.. give them a break. If there on their own & keeping away from others then that’s good enough

There is a Garda station literally right there on the Prom.

Zzippy

dastardly00 wrote: »

There is a Garda station literally right there on the Prom.

I heard they were too busy fighting off looters in Shop Street

snoopy84

In the que outside dunnes knocknacarra today I had to ask someone to stop SPITTING, I couldn't believe what I was seeing spitting for gods sake.

obi604

snoopy84 wrote: »

In the que outside dunnes knocknacarra today I had to ask someone to stop SPITTING, I couldn't believe what I was seeing spitting for gods sake.

G0b****es. The response could have gone any way though !! With the type of person I guess you were dealing with.

Pen Rua

https://www.anpost.com/Community-Support/Request-a-Check-In

An Post will now check in on vulnerable and older persons, see Journal.ie article here. To avail, you fill in the person's address & Eircode at the link above. Might be useful / peace of mind to some in this thread.

snoopy84

obi604 wrote:

G0b****es. The response could have gone any way though !! With the type of person I guess you were dealing with.

Yes I thought that the moment I opened my mouth 😯 but there was just no stopping me 😄. As I was behind him I heard him speaking to staff on the way in. Turns out he works there!!!

beardybrewer

snoopy84 wrote: »

In the que outside dunnes knocknacarra today I had to ask someone to stop SPITTING, I couldn't believe what I was seeing spitting for gods sake.

I've been thinking the same thing everytime I come across spit on the footpath around the neighbourhood. I think a lot of runners/cyclists don't even consider how inappropriate that is right now. I know they're just caught up in their exercise but ffs swallow it you animals!

what_traffic

beardybrewer wrote: »

I've been thinking the same thing everytime I come across spit on the footpath around the neighbourhood. I think a lot of runners/cyclists don't even consider how inappropriate that is right now. I know they're just caught up in their exercise but ffs swallow it you animals!

It can be anybody, from any walk of life. Your ire is directed at people you have not seen doing said infraction while example from snoopy84 is an actual example not anecdotal. Poor behaviour is just that, poor behaviour.

bobbyss

snoopy84 wrote: »

In the que outside dunnes knocknacarra today I had to ask someone to stop SPITTING, I couldn't believe what I was seeing spitting for gods sake.

That's strange.

I was walking past the pharmacy in the Westside last week when I saw this young one standing outside its door and she gave a good gobby spit onto the ground and then off she went into the pharmacy. It happened so fast. If she had not gone in I would definitely not have challenged her about it.

The next spit would probably have been towards me. No manners. No respect for others.

flazio

OK, unless people have a weird fetish with licking spit off the ground, I'm not sure how this is an infection spread risk? Spit tends to dry out in less then an hour. Now, if a cigarette butt got stuck on my shoe however, that would be a bit of a concern.

New Home

flazio wrote: »

OK, unless people have a weird fetish with licking spit off the ground, I'm not sure how this is an infection spread risk? Spit tends to dry out in less then an hour. Now, if a cigarette butt got stuck on my shoe however, that would be a bit of a concern.

For instance: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112960490&postcount=1324

flazio

In that case, bring back the foot and mouth measures.

ratracer

Is there much testing being carried out in Galway at all?
I’ve yet to see more than a handful of people at the docks, it’s empty practically every time I pass. The airport site is doing very little either. Is the Renmore test facility busy?

I know of colleagues that were tested 11 days ago who haven’t had any results back. They were tested in the initial phase as a result of contact tracing.

ingalway

ratracer wrote: »

Is there much testing being carried out in Galway at all?
I’ve yet to see more than a handful of people at the docks, it’s empty practically every time I pass. The airport site is doing very little either. Is the Renmore test facility busy?

I know of colleagues that were tested 11 days ago who haven’t had any results back. They were tested in the initial phase as a result of contact tracing.

The docks testing place seems quite odd. A few days I went past there were 10-15 people all standing around the gate waiting to be called to be let in. Having that many people who are all at least showing signs of Covid 19, or have been in close contact with someone who has it, standing around on a public footpath does not seem to best way. I'm sure if you're feeling unwell the last thing you want is to be standing around with other sick people on the cold and windy docks, Lucky there has been no lashing rain recently. Other days there is absolutely nothing going on there.
I know there has been a problem with testing kits availability but it does seem badly organised when they are testing.