Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

Cheshire Cat

If any of you didn't get the Covid-19 information booklet, you can download it on hse.ie or gov.ie

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/472f64-covid-19-coronavirus-guidance-and-advice/#information-booklet

As expected, with the addition of the German figures, we past 10k yesterday. Today an additional 832 were added for a total of 11,479 with 406 deaths (now included in the chart below).



The r value is not truly reflective of the current rate of infection due to the German figures, but I decided to leave them in rather than try to figure some way of including them but not disrupting the main model.



Also, its difficult now to project correctly where we'll be given the disruption of the German figures to the model. I was going to track these separately to preserve the model, but it'll balance out in a few days once the last of those are accounted for. They need to be included in the overall figures anyway, so it makes more sense to just add them to the regular daily totals.

With that in mind, the projections below should be taken with a grain of salt.



The same caveat applies to the projections for the daily reported cases below



Finally, I spent a bit more time on the national, county-by-county breakdown, so that is detailed below. The blue bars represent the total cases for each county, with the orange line representing the rate per 10k population. Its also divided by province for whoever it was that mentioned that (sorry, the name escapes me).



We are now at 90k tests and according to report, the backlog should be cleared by the weekend meaning we are very close to a 24 hr turnaround for test results. That will be a big step towards easing the lockdown. The big risk will be in easing the lockdown too early. Right now Austria & Denmark are gradually lifting their lockdown's and to be honest, I think its still too early.

In my opinion, in order to return to normality, the following will be needed

• A max of a 24 hr turnaround for test results. Same-day would be better.
• Wide scale testing where clustering is difficult or unavoidable e.g. schools
• Masks to become a requirement
• Social distancing remains
• Large scale events still on hold
• A general acceptance among the population that in order to return to normality, some people are going to die who otherwise would not have if we remained in lockdown.

The easing of restrictions will come sooner or later, but personally I would not like to see it happening until we are comfortably below an r value of 0.95, at least 0.9 but I don't know how feasible that is.

Next update Friday

ChewyLouie

Galway City Council (Facebook)...

"At the request of the Gardaí, the Blackrock Bathing Area including the Diving Tower and the walkway to the rear of the Golf Course are closed until further notice with immediate effect because of physical distancing and disease control concerns."

thecretinhop

dacor your posts are exceptional keep it up

flazio

Agreed. I think what I'm taking away from the figures, specifically the r graph is
Could be worse but could be better.

Zzippy

Thanks Dacor, great stuff as usual. I noticed Tony Holohan showed a graph yesterday where the positive cases were adjusted for date of sampling rather than when they came back from Germany, the rate of increase was a bit lower alright when adjusted. Those adjusted figures might be available somewhere?

Zzippy

Zzippy wrote: »

Thanks Dacor, great stuff as usual. I noticed Tony Holohan showed a graph yesterday where the positive cases were adjusted for date of sampling rather than when they came back from Germany, the rate of increase was a bit lower alright when adjusted. Those adjusted figures might be available somewhere?

I'll have a root around. Would be great to have that info

shenanagans

Deleted User you're a legend. Thanks for detailed updates and analysis.

Arghus

Thanks once again DaCor. I look for your posts about the figures every day. Actual information. The signal to noise ratio elsewhere on the site is horrific. In the main Covid forum it's mainly just people who haven't a clue debating with other people who haven't a clue.

Whereisgalway

Arghus wrote: »

Thanks once again DaCor. I look for your posts about the figures every day. Actual information. The signal to noise ratio elsewhere on the site is horrific. In the main Covid forum it's mainly just people who haven't a clue debating with other people who haven't a clue.

Welcome to the Internet

Doctors room ghost

ChewyLouie wrote: »

Galway City Council (Facebook)...

"At the request of the Gardaí, the Blackrock Bathing Area including the Diving Tower and the walkway to the rear of the Golf Course are closed until further notice with immediate effect because of physical distancing and disease control concerns."

Bring back the raft I say for when this nightmare is over

JoeA3

Arghus wrote: »

Thanks once again DaCor. I look for your posts about the figures every day. Actual information. The signal to noise ratio elsewhere on the site is horrific. In the main Covid forum it's mainly just people who haven't a clue debating with other people who haven't a clue.

100%. The main covid forum is an unhealthy place to spend much time in. Dominated by idiots.

biko

Galway has recorded 23 new cases, bringing the county total to 220.

• 36 deaths located in the east, 4 in the west, 1 in the south of the country
• the people included 16 females and 25 males
• the median age of today’s reported deaths is 85
• 31 people were reported as having underlying health conditions

flazio

Are the German figures included in the county by county breakdown?

zell12

Antone see galway gardai checking public transport is only being used by essential workers?
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/passenger-numbers-down-by-90pc-as-gardai-monitor-all-public-transport-to-ensure-essential-travel-39127375.html

Wompa1

Excellent metrics!

I feel like it might be better to leave the German results out if those are weeks old. It's difficult because they are valid but like you said, those skew the genuine infection rate which is more useful to illustrate.

A 24 hour turnaround on testing would be amazing.

biko

17 new cases of Covid-19 in Galway, bringing total to 237
https://galwaybayfm.ie/galway-bay-fm-news-desk/17-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-galway-bringing-total-to-237/

extra gravy

There was a woman on shop st. just now trying to hand out flyers to people so they'd vote for her daughter to win a bloody competition on Instagram. No gloves/mask on her. Idiot.

Mrs OBumble

extra gravy wrote: »

There was a woman on shop st. just now trying to hand out flyers to people so they'd vote for her daughter to win a bloody competition on Instagram. No gloves/mask on her. Idiot.

A mask on her would be useful if she is sick.

Gloves on her would have been a waste of time.

In fairness, 99% of walkers in the city centre have been very good at distancing.

Whereisgalway

extra gravy wrote: »

There was a woman on shop st. just now trying to hand out flyers to people so they'd vote for her daughter to win a bloody competition on Instagram. No gloves/mask on her. Idiot.

What’s the insta handle? I’ll throw her a vote

extra gravy

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

A mask on her would be useful if she is sick.

Gloves on her would have been a waste of time.

In fairness, 99% of walkers in the city centre have been very good at distancing.

Yeah they have. I just thought it was ridiculous reason to be trying to initiate contact with other people.

Gadgetman496

Quay Street this evening

https://twitter.com/i/status/1250855536754601984

cfeeneyinterior

Part deux
https://twitter.com/justanotherwool/status/1250857575433801731?s=19

biko

That is ****ed up.

obi604

cfeeneyinterior wrote: »

Part deux
https://twitter.com/justanotherwool/status/1250857575433801731?s=19

What a disgrace. <snip>

Diabhal Beag

The chef gave a good showing of self defense to the philosopher in the blue hoodie. Hope Xi'an get a load of new business after this.

Blondie919

I hope whoever took these videos is making them available to the Gardai?

extra gravy

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

The chef gave a good showing of self defense to the philosopher in the blue hoodie. Hope Xi'an get a load of new business after this.

Didn't realise they were open for collection, I'll be ordering at the weekend.

Blondie919

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

The chef gave a good showing of self defense to the philosopher in the blue hoodie. Hope Xi'an get a load of new business after this.

It's a pity that wasn't videoed. Would like to have seen that.

obi604

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

The chef gave a good showing of self defense to the philosopher in the blue hoodie. Hope Xi'an get a load of new business after this.

What happened? Was door eventually kicked in and some lad came out and hit the participants?