Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

_Whimsical_

This is very worrying news. It was announced yesterday at that UK government press briefing.
I see lots of small children suddenly out playing with friends, kicking a ball around etc. It seems harmless but it's really not.
What we know right now is that this virus is highly contagious, we do not yet know it's implications for the health of anyone. We are very much dealing with incomplete data right now. Please everyone try and stick to the measures.

LONDON (Reuters) - Some children in the United Kingdom with no underlying health conditions have died from a rare inflammatory syndrome which researchers believe to be linked to COVID-19, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Tuesday.

Doctors in northern Italy, one of the world’s hardest-hit areas during the pandemic, have reported extraordinarily large numbers of children under age 9 with severe cases of what appears to be Kawasaki disease, more common in parts of Asia.

“There are some children who have died who didn’t have underlying health conditions,” Hancock told LBC Radio.

“It’s a new disease that we think may be caused by coronavirus and the COVID-19 virus, we’re not 100% sure because some of the people who got it hadn’t tested positive, so we’re doing a lot of research now but it is something that we’re worried about.”

Source : https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-children/uk-says-no-children-have-died-from-syndrome-linked-to-covid-19-idUKKCN22A0W8

I've held back posting updates lately in the hope that additional data around the nursing homes figures would be released. Sadly this has not been the case so all I have to go on are the rolled up totals of nursing homes and general public combined. This is frustrating as there are regular mentions of the rate of infection reproduction (r value) being between 0.5-1 at the moment, but this is not reflected in the numbers being released.

On the contrary, due to the shift towards mass testing in nursing homes, there were even some spikes in the numbers over the last week. My hope is that as this testing is completed, the numbers start to reflect reality because right now we have 2 sets of data being talked about but only 1 set being released.

Anyway, to kick off, there were, sadly, 59 new deaths and 229 new cases confirmed today which brings the deaths/cases totals to 1159 & 19877 respectively.



Todays figure of 229 new cases translates into an r value of 1.012.



While a one day rate looks great, its often better to take a larger pool of data to negate the effects of spikes and confirm trends. So the averages over the last 2 weeks are as follows and are all looking good in terms of going in the right direction. We are verging on hitting the peak according to the data.

• 14 day avg - 1.040
• 10 day avg - 1.030
• 7 day avg - 1.031
• 5 day avg - 1.025
• 3 day avg - 1.023

This means we are reaching the plateau in terms of growth but we're not quite there yet.



As mentioned, the daily rate for today looks great, and if it keeps going that way over the next few days, we should start to see our daily case numbers following the path of the gray bars below rather than the orange/yellow.



Lastly, the counties breakdown. I spoke before about Cavan standing out as having a particularly high rate of infection per 10k population. Since my last update Cavan has surged ahead with the highest rate of 82 per 10k population. I dug a little deeper and found that over 30% of all the cases for Cavan occurred in the last 7-8 days indicating that the nursing home testing in that county is highlighting some serious problems.



Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Connacht Galway 332 13 258,058 42
Connacht Leitrim 67 21 32,044 20.1
Connacht Mayo 466 36 130,507 23.3
Connacht Roscommon 141 22 64,544 25.3
Connacht Sligo 117 18 65,535 35.5
Leinster Carlow 93 16 56,932 63.4
Leinster Dublin 9,624 71 1,347,359 1,459.20
Leinster Kildare 1147 52 222,504 131
Leinster Kilkenny 233 23 99,232 47.8
Leinster Laois 212 25 84,697 49.3
Leinster Longford 135 33 40,873 37.4
Leinster Louth 640 50 128,884 155.4
Leinster Meath 638 33 195,044 83.2
Leinster Offaly 236 30 77,961 38.9
Leinster Westmeath 448 50 88,770 48.2
Leinster Wexford 162 11 149,722 63.2
Leinster Wicklow 558 39 142,425 70.2
Munster Clare 229 19 118,817 34.4
Munster Cork 1126 21 542,868 72.3
Munster Kerry 288 19 147,707 30.7
Munster Limerick 518 27 194,899 70.8
Munster Tipperary 370 23 159,553 37.2
Munster Waterford 138 12 116,176 62.7
Ulster Cavan 627 82 76,176 39.3
Ulster Donegal 453 28 159,192 32.6
Ulster Monaghan 385 63 61,386 47.3


To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

Next update Friday

Raving_Magic

Deleted User wrote: »

I've held back posting updates lately in the hope that additional data around the nursing homes figures would be released. Sadly this has not been the case so all I have to go on are the rolled up totals of nursing homes and general public combined. This is frustrating as there are regular mentions of the rate of infection reproduction (r value) being between 0.5-1 at the moment, but this is not reflected in the numbers being released.
......

To sum up, todays rate of 1.012 is great, but its a single data point so should be read into too deeply. We are still going in the right direction, slowly, or maybe quite fast, I don't know. Its honestly frustrating to try make sense of this data when you know its not the complete picture.

Next update Friday

Thank you, that was brilliant and insightful great work and I hopefully we are getting to a stage when in the next few weeks, we can very slowly get out lives back to normal

Gadgetman496

Any reason why they are not making the total number of deaths per Region/County available?

brutes1

Deleted User wrote: »

There definitely will not be a full lifting of the restrictions.

I posted back on the 14-Apr, the following



According to the briefings, we are still not there with testing. Until that happens the restrictions will remain.

As for modified restrictions, well, that's anyones guess. The papers are having great fun using ink to guess

Yes had read that .. But...Not there yet with testing?? Why were nearly all the Galway test facilities closed ? Docks, Renmore, Craughwell etc ??

Very suspect

The government are scared to do anything at this stage

brutes1

brutes1 wrote: »

Yes had read that .. But...Not there yet with testing?? Why were nearly all the Galway test facilities closed ? Docks, Renmore, Craughwell etc ??

Very suspect

The government are scared to do anything at this stage

Nothing suspect about it at all.

There is a difference between doing the testing and having the capacity to do it efficiently.

In the beginning the whole process was bundled together as fast as possible to enable testing to be carried out fast to ascertain the scale of the pandemic in Ireland.

That we did not have the capacity to analyse those tests did not matter at the time, we made do. Once our capacity to perform tests ramped up we ran out of reagent, again we made do and prioritised. We trained a butt load of people on contact tracing and put them to work.

Now, as for returning to some semblance of normality, this is not possible without the whole process around testing being robust and able to cope with a potential demand of 100k a week with a quick turnaround and being able to do so for an extended period. We also need to be able to trace the contacts of any positive results very fast and get those folks tested / isolated.

If we go back to normal without the above we will have rolling lockdowns. You avoid those by expanding testing, analysis and tracing to a huge degree, which allows you to be proactive in controlling the spread rather than reactive

WallyGUFC

We've heard the 15,000 tests a day/100,000 tests a week line for weeks on end and they have failed miserably to meet these predictions every time. Why bother throwing out such large numbers week after week when everyone knows it's not remotely likely to happen? The briefings they do every Sunday seem to be PR exercises, covering themselves and giving absolute best case scenario figures that aren't realistic.

brutes1

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing suspect about it at all.

There is a difference between doing the testing and having the capacity to do it efficiently.

In the beginning the whole process was bundled together as fast as possible to enable testing to be carried out fast to ascertain the scale of the pandemic in Ireland.

That we did not have the capacity to analyse those tests did not matter at the time, we made do. Once our capacity to perform tests ramped up we ran out of reagent, again we made do and prioritised. We trained a butt load of people on contact tracing and put them to work.

Now, as for returning to some semblance of normality, this is not possible without the whole process around testing being robust and able to cope with a potential demand of 100k a week with a quick turnaround and being able to do so for an extended period. We also need to be able to trace the contacts of any positive results very fast and get those folks tested / isolated.

If we go back to normal without the above we will have rolling lockdowns. You avoid those by expanding testing, analysis and tracing to a huge degree, which allows you to be proactive in controlling the spread rather than reactive

So why did all the test centres close then ? We are being fed big fat red herrings . I would not believe a word of it

They have no courage to end the lockdown and are going to shuffle out of the deep hole we are in

?Cee?view

brutes1 wrote: »

So why did all the test centres close then ? We are being fed big fat red herrings . I would not believe a word of it

They have no courage to end the lockdown and are going to shuffle out of the deep hole we are in

The test centres are only one small aspect of the testing process. All they do is collect the samples. There may well be sufficient capacity to collect samples without needing the locations that existed heretofore. Just because they have closed is not a measure or indicative of the capacity to process those collected samples.

As to courage to end the lockdown? What does that mean? The easy thing would be to give in to the unthinking selfish people and end the lockdown. It takes leadership and courage to proceed with what needs to be done.

biko

?Cee?view wrote: »

The easy thing would be to give in to the unthinking selfish people and end the lockdown.

Indeed, if the virus killed people in their teens/twenties only (instead of their grandparents) the tone on boards would be very different.

Pen Rua

Galway's own Irish Socksciety have produced fabric face masks, costing €3 each (plus delivery of €2 based on their normal goods).

https://irishsocksciety.com/collections/face-masks

AFAIK, they went on sale today and are already sold out.

serfboard

Pen Rua wrote: »

Galway's own Irish Socksciety have produced fabric face masks, costing €3 each (plus delivery of €2 based on their normal goods).

https://irishsocksciety.com/collections/face-masks

AFAIK, they went on sale today and are already sold out.

Face masks that say Howya on them!

Andrew00

serfboard wrote: »

Face masks that say Howya on them!

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

serfboard

serfboard wrote: »

Face masks that say Howya on them!

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

That's fine - they're not compulsory.

New Home

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

Ironic, really...

extra gravy

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

A face mask or just a face mask that says howya?

Pen Rua

serfboard wrote: »

Face masks that say Howya on them!

Yes, something a little different and might even brighten up someone else's day if they see someone with a fun mask. God forbid.

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

Ok, don't buy one. Sound.

Thought I'd share so as to support a local company, sheesh.

Snow Garden

Andrew00 wrote: »

Wouldn't be seen dead wearing one

:D

_Whimsical_

I don't understand the closure of testing centres. It just doesn't make sense. Also locating the main one so far out of town means that many people who are ill may be inclined not to bother testing. Those well enough to drive themselves are fine but those without transport, those feeling too unwell to drive without a family member who they can safely pile into a car with and risk transmitting it to are in another situation altogether. I've a feeling the location will mean people will just decide to ride it out, hope for the best and go to the hospital if needs be. I don't believe the very small numbers we have to date as a result.

Storm 10

Ireland does not need a vaccine we can manage without one


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ireland-can-manage-pandemic-without-vaccine-says-scientific-adviser-996778.html

Mrs OBumble

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

I don't understand the closure of testing centres. It just doesn't make sense. Also locating the main one so far out of town means that many people who are ill may be inclined not to bother testing. Those well enough to drive themselves are fine but those without transport, those feeling too unwell to drive without a family member who they can safely pile into a car with and risk transmitting it to are in another situation altogether. I've a feeling the location will mean people will just decide to ride it out, hope for the best and go to the hospital if needs be. I don't believe the very small numbers we have to date as a result.

It depends where most of the case are: people from, say, Kinvara and surrounding areas might be happier going to the airport than the city centre.

ben.schlomo

Storm 10 wrote: »

Ireland does not need a vaccine we can manage without one


https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ireland-can-manage-pandemic-without-vaccine-says-scientific-adviser-996778.html

That woeful, clickbait 'article' doesn't say we don't need a vaccine. He says we can manage the situation but that a vaccine would obviously be a great thing.

_Whimsical_

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

It depends where most of the case are: people from, say, Kinvara and surrounding areas might be happier going to the airport than the city centre.

That's true, there should be options for people in the countryside but there should be a city centre option too as that's where the largest volume of people will most likely come from. Considering people are supposed to be isolating from family members if they become ill it makes no sense to then get into a car for over 45 minutes to be driven there and back for testing.

Closing centres and not providing easy access will mean there'll be less take up of tests and our numbers will be skewed.

Storm 10

Travel restrictions will not be amended to stop Northern Ireland day-trippers

https://jrnl.ie/5088381

Welcome down lads and spread it around for the bank holiday. You just could not make this up bloody joke

ben.schlomo

Storm 10 wrote: »

Travel restrictions will not be amended to stop Northern Ireland day-trippers

https://jrnl.ie/5088381

Welcome down lads and spread it around for the bank holiday. You just could not make this up bloody joke

You really do enjoy a clickbait story accompanied by an overreaction. The authorities say anyone making non essential trips south of the border are in breach of NI law and therefore if caught will be sent back. Do you want a return to a hard border?

ben.schlomo

Storm 10 wrote: »

Travel restrictions will not be amended to stop Northern Ireland day-trippers

https://jrnl.ie/5088381

Welcome down lads and spread it around for the bank holiday. You just could not make this up bloody joke

You really do enjoy a clickbait story accompanied by an overreaction. The authorities say anyone making non essential trips south of the border are in breach of NI law and therefore if caught will be sent back. Do you want a return to a hard border?

Storm 10

ben.schlomo wrote: »

You really do enjoy a clickbait story accompanied by an overreaction. The authorities say anyone making non essential trips south of the border are in breach of NI law and therefore if caught will be sent back. Do you want a return to a hard border?

Was on RTE News as well click bait or not it's annoying

ChewyLouie

Pen Rua wrote: »

Galway's own Irish Socksciety have produced fabric face masks, costing €3 each (plus delivery of €2 based on their normal goods).

https://irishsocksciety.com/collections/face-masks

AFAIK, they went on sale today and are already sold out.

^ those guys are back taking pre-orders.

Also another local business selling masks;
https://www.stitches.ie/shop/

Pen Rua

ChewyLouie wrote: »

^ those guys are back taking pre-orders.

Also another local business selling masks;
https://www.stitches.ie/shop/

Thanks for the heads up, was able to order some shipping Wednesday

ChewyLouie

The road down to Rusheen Bay has now also been closed and signs up for "Local Access Only".