Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

JoeA3

Deleted User wrote: »

You made the assertion, I challenged you on it, simples, no need to be so sensitive



So that talks about incorrect phone numbers on record for testee's, not a failing of contact tracing

Contact tracing not being immediately commenced, fair enough, but not unexpected given the emergency situation we're under.

Labs informing GP's before uploading results to the tracing system, not a failing of contact tracing.

Hardly shambolic

Fair enough, “shambolic” might be a bit strong, but I’ve been hearing it day in day out on the radio (I’m not talking about Liveline here) that contact tracing is not where it should be. Sure isn’t it one of the main reasons we’ve had an extension of the current restrictions? Are you confident that they’ll have it right in 2 weeks? Or that they’ll manage it when people are moving about a lot more freely? I’m not, but it is what it is.

JoeA3

Whereisgalway wrote: »

The link you posted to back up your has zero substance. You were giving out earlier that someone didn’t respect your opinion and your coming out with passive aggressive reply. Pots and kettles spring to mind

A lot like many of your posts then?

In the main, barring a couple of aberrations, I’ve tried to articulate my opinions here in a reasonable manner. I seem to have irked you in particular, that’s fine, I won’t lose any sleep over it. If you’ve something of substance to add to the conversation other than name calling, I’m all ears.

JoeA3

JoeA3 wrote: »

Fair enough, “shambolic” might be a bit strong, but I’ve been hearing it day in day out on the radio (I’m not talking about Liveline here) that contact tracing is not where it should be. Sure isn’t it one of the main reasons we’ve had an extension of the current restrictions? Are you confident that they’ll have it right in 2 weeks? Or that they’ll manage it when people are moving about a lot more freely? I’m not, but it is what it is.

Contact tracing, testing, supplies, etc, few things are "where they should be" in the midst of a pandemic.

To try use that as a stick to poke holes in the progress made so far speaks volumes more so about you personally than the collective effort being made by the HSE, the nations frontline staff and the majority of the society of Ireland

Arghus

JoeA3 wrote: »

You mention New Zealand. Yeah, it is a cliche, there is no comparison, other than we both happen to be islands in the strictest definition of the word. In fact their own president was in the news today, she specifically mentioned her surprise at Ireland's approach to the relaxing of the lockdown. She thinks we are being far too cautious!

I'd recommend a listen to respected economist Dan O'Brien (frequently on TV/radio) for a very sobering view on what's ahead of us in the months and years after this.

We have to get real, this thing isn't going away, we cannot hide away in a bunker hoping for miracles that won't come. Let those who can and want to get back to work get on with it.

That's a misrepresentation of what she - Jacinda Ardern - said. She made reference to Ireland's slow potential steps because we don't have the enviable position that NZ have: no new cases and eradicated community transmission. When she said that some countries are "taking ages" it's not chastising those countries and wondering why they aren't getting a move on with emerging from lockdown. She's pointing out that NZ's approach - aiming for elimination of the virus - is actually more effective in the medium term and enables an economy/social activity to resume again on the other side far quicker and in more robust health than it would have otherwise.

Mrs OBumble

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

I would agree with the above, I think as an island we could eliminate the virus but the north makes it more challenging.
....

Then start opening slowly but keep no one allowed to enter the country, gradually we could return to normal with no virus in the community but keep ports and airports closed except for leaving the country or freight etc.

Extreme yes but it could actually eliminate the virus and it would get things back to normal faster so overall the economy should not be impacted too differently.

However for this country, normal means deeply entwined with the rest of Europe. Mainstays of our economy are tourism (gone for a while anyways) , medical devices (facilities have to be regularly audited by officials from various countries), European language customer service (needs language speakers to be able to move freely), foreign education (gone for next year), agriculture (needs markets). We need to learn to live with this new virus, alongside the rest of Europe.

Arghus wrote: »

I can't understand the logic of people saying the lockdown has gone far enough or long enough when the numbers of new daily cases, people in hospital and people in ICU are still higher today than where they were when the lockdown was first introduced.

The situation has remained controllable because of the lockdown. People think, "ah, yeah, it isn't that bad" without stopping to think that it's the success of the measures - that they were screaming out for a number of weeks ago - that they have to thank for this.

I'm thinking that there's a significant time-lag in the figures (being in the media's positive count today means your test result was confirmed a few days ago, and the test was performed a week before that). The numbers being announced are part of a very well-managed public influence campaign to get people, on average, to behave in certain ways

Arghus

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

I'm thinking that there's a significant time-lag in the figures (being in the media's positive count today means your test result was confirmed a few days ago, and the test was performed a week before that). The numbers being announced are part of a very well-managed public influence campaign to get people, on average, to behave in certain ways

It is unclear how much of a lag there between when the tests were carried out, when they were confirmed and when they are announced in the daily totals.

I'm not sure that I agree with your theory. It is an interesting one, but I don't think they're massaging the figures to keep us in line.

Mrs OBumble

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

I'm thinking that there's a significant time-lag in the figures (being in the media's positive count today means your test result was confirmed a few days ago, and the test was performed a week before that). The numbers being announced are part of a very well-managed public influence campaign to get people, on average, to behave in certain ways

The time lag has been significantly reduced from what it was. I had a family member who was tested on Wednesday evening last week and had the result first thing Friday morning.

If anything I don’t think they are pushing the seriousness enough of things either rather than your feeling that they are exaggerating. Even the move to 5km was pointless really, it makes little difference to anyone and in itself is not really a risk but it gives the wrong impression. We need to be frightening people not giving them excuses to play things down and forget the stay at home message.

biko

Bicker removed.

This thread is for local news.
You can use the COVID forum for other discussions.

brutes1

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

The time lag has been significantly reduced from what it was. I had a family member who was tested on Wednesday evening last week and had the result first thing Friday morning.

If anything I don’t think they are pushing the seriousness enough of things either rather than your feeling that they are exaggerating. Even the move to 5km was pointless really, it makes little difference to anyone and in itself is not really a risk but it gives the wrong impression. We need to be frightening people not giving them excuses to play things down and forget the stay at home message.

Why do we need to be frightening people ?? What is so serious at this stage ?

Gadgetman496

brutes1 wrote: »

Why do we need to be frightening people ?? What is so serious at this stage ?

The Virus is as serious now as it was on day one. It is every bit as lethal now as it was when it was first discovered. Nothing in that regard has changed one iota.

All the recent measures were designed to slow it down in order that the emergency services would not be overwhelmed.

Until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available, the virus remains as lethal as ever.

Discodog

Back to Galway. Bizarre to see a huge line of cones at Furbo Beach & one person walking their dog.

WallyGUFC

For those against the gradual relaxation of restrictions, how much longer would you keep them in place?

Mrs OBumble

Gadgetman496 wrote: »

The Virus is as serious now as it was on day one. It is every bit as lethal now as it was when it was first discovered. Nothing in that regard has changed one iota.

All the recent measures were designed to slow it down in order that the emergency services would not be overwhelmed.

Until a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available, the virus remains as lethal as ever.

But we don't really know how lethal that is. It"s possible that the majority of us have had a mild or asymptomatically.

New diseases are effectively a giant scientific experiment, with the whole world as a petri dish.

amandstu

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

But we don't really know how lethal that is. It"s possible that the majority of us have had a mild or asymptomatically.

.

Anything is "possible" but no one serious has said that.

What they do say is that it is possible a large proportion of all cases may be asymptomatic. (between 30 and 50% I think)

That is completely different.

In the Czeck Republic a recent survey indicates very low prevalence of antibodies in the population

WallyGUFC

WallyGUFC wrote: »

For those against the gradual relaxation of restrictions, how much longer would you keep them in place?

Until our new cases per day (with very large test numbers per day) are under say 50 at least, preferably approaching or in single digits though. For somewhere like Galway which has had relatively low confirmed numbers a run of say a week or more with no cases at all in Galway, Mayo and other bordering counties coupled with severely limiting people entering and leaving Dublin and the east could allow an earlier opening up.

Personally I don't see very much advantage in this half opening up of things. I will still be avoiding leaving the house for the most part as the infection is around and you aren't getting half the enjoyment of any things even if they are open. I'd be as well pleased in a longer strict lock down which could result in a more back to normal situation after.

Mrs OBumble

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

But we don't really know how lethal that is. .

Well yes, and no

The final figures won't be known until this is all over and figures vary from country to country due to testing practices.

That being said, we do know a lot already in terms of how dangerous this virus is.

Early on it looked like this

On March 5, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said during a news conference that about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 patients around the world have died.

In a Chinese analysis of more than 72,000 case records, 2.3% of those confirmed or suspected (based on symptoms and exposure) to have the virus died.

Patients above 80 years of age had an alarmingly high fatality rate of 14.8%.

Patients ages 70 to 79 years had a fatality rate of 8% and those ages 60 to 69 had a fatality rate of 3.6%. (Younger age groups had lower fatality rates; 1.3% for those 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39.)

In Italy, which has a high proportion of residents over age 65, the fatality rate is strikingly high, around 10% as of March 25.

A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54.

Testing, tracing and isolating plays a massive factor though

in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests for COVID-19, officials found a fatality rate of 0.6%.

It should be noted that estimating the fatality rate is extremely difficult if you are looking for a true picture due to those who are asymptomatic never being tested as they are not severe cases and so do not go for testing either by choice or direction.

This explains it better

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xF2Ihjwbpw

That being said, the same applies for the seasonal flu, SARS etc. So what can be said with certainty is the fatality rate based off known data, and this has shown this virus to be pretty damn high.

_Whimsical_

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

Until our new cases per day (with very large test numbers per day) are under say 50 at least, preferably approaching or in single digits though. For somewhere like Galway which has had relatively low confirmed numbers a run of say a week or more with no cases at all in Galway, Mayo and other bordering counties coupled with severely limiting people entering and leaving Dublin and the east could allow an earlier opening up.

Personally I don't see very much advantage in this half opening up of things. I will still be avoiding leaving the house for the most part as the infection is around and you aren't getting half the enjoyment of any things even if they are open. I'd be as well pleased in a longer strict lock down which could result in a more back to normal situation after.

I agree, I'd prefer a longer lockdown if it meant we achieved a situation like New Zealand where there have been no new cases in days. One infectious disease specialist mentioned this as what he saw as the most preferable option for us. As an island nation it really shouldn't be impossible that we suppress the illness and quarantine all visitors for a period after.

I think really we know very little about Covid 19 at this stage too. All we know for sure is that it's highly infectious, ICU Drs are only slowly coming to the conclusion that it's not behaving as a typical respiratory illness and is more like an enthothelial illness/ blood disorder with impact on many body systems. The longer we can suppress the illness the more time we have to learn more and find useful treatments. There's some frightening details emerging about asymptomatic patients in their 30s and 40s developing strokes and heart attacks due to the effects of the virus on blood clotting. So far we only know of deaths related directly to the initial understanding of what covid was, but the number may be higher when they account for these other manifestations.
This makes for worrying but worthwhile reading : https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

We really do need to keep trying, its not for nothing. Everyday we are closer to knowing more. This is the "easy" part really, where the covid payments are still coming, after that it won't be easy and some people will work regardless of restrictions. It's going to be much harder to suppress then. I hope we can make the most of this month.

Mrs OBumble

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That being said, we do know a lot already in terms of how dangerous this virus is.

.....

That being said, the same applies for the seasonal flu, SARS etc. So what can be said with certainty is the fatality rate based off known data, and this has shown this virus to be pretty damn high.

What is the normal fatality rate of just being 80+, though?

I suspect that to get any meaningful data about population effects people will need to start exercising again, so we can learn about the lung effects of being asymptomatic.

serfboard

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

There's some frightening details emerging about asymptomatic patients in their 30s and 40s developing strokes and heart attacks due to the effects of the virus on blood clotting ... This makes for worrying but worthwhile reading : https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

Thanks for posting that article - I wasn't aware of the stroke side-effect. Pretty concerning alright.

Mrs OBumble

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

What is the normal fatality rate of just being 80+, though?

Eh? I'm sorry, you're going to have to expand on that one

Have a read through here before you do though as I think you are misunderstanding some of the data thats out there. I've taken the liberty of filtering that page to only include a handful of countries across the spectrum for ease of reading. Feel free to modify the filters yourself

ChewyLouie

Have ye seen this?
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=1865

WallyGUFC

Fernando Muscular Sibilant wrote: »

Until our new cases per day (with very large test numbers per day) are under say 50 at least, preferably approaching or in single digits though. For somewhere like Galway which has had relatively low confirmed numbers a run of say a week or more with no cases at all in Galway, Mayo and other bordering counties coupled with severely limiting people entering and leaving Dublin and the east could allow an earlier opening up.

Personally I don't see very much advantage in this half opening up of things. I will still be avoiding leaving the house for the most part as the infection is around and you aren't getting half the enjoyment of any things even if they are open. I'd be as well pleased in a longer strict lock down which could result in a more back to normal situation after.

I'd have been in favour of a stricter lockdown from the outset and the Government missed a trick with that really, issuing a lockdown with something like 13 different exceptions. All ports of entry should have been freight only and as unpalatable as it may have been, the border with the North should have been closed if we weren't going to go with a 32 county approach. Should have been more enforcement also by the Gardaí. A stricter lockdown may have meant even less cases than we're seeing now.


But I don't think you could go extending the half-lockdown we have had any longer. What if we still have 200 cases a day in August or September, or 100 cases a day, or anything over 50 a day? Should we stay at the current level until then? I know health trumps all but the economy is going to be in a terrible mess whenever this ends and that will lead to plenty of other hardships, including serious mental health issues. This time though people won't have anywhere to emmigrate to for jobs. What about schools, when do they open?

biko

Guys, keep it Galway in this thread please
There is another forum for generic covid Irish/US/etc chat.
And even a chat thread in this very forum.

Whereisgalway

biko wrote: »

Guys, keep it Galway in this thread please
There is another forum for generic covid Irish/US/etc chat.
And even a chat thread in this very forum.

The threads are very similarly titled

Whereisgalway

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1136626/

Well done

Whereisgalway

https://www.galwaydaily.com/news/coronavirus-37-new-deaths-confirmed-galway-cases-rise-again/


37 people died today

flazio

If you can't see with your own two eyes that you aren't 2 metres from another person then there's no hope for any of us.

at1withmyself

flazio wrote: »

If you can't see with your own two eyes that you aren't 2 metres from another person then there's no hope for any of us.

I'm prefer if gave an electric shock instead of a lousy vibration!

Mrs OBumble

Deleted User wrote: »

Eh? I'm sorry, you're going to have to expand on that one

Have a read through here before you do though as I think you are misunderstanding some of the data thats out there. I've taken the liberty of filtering that page to only include a handful of countries across the spectrum for ease of reading. Feel free to modify the filters yourself

Some lads from UL have said it better than I can - here's RTE's summary of their work: https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/


I suspect the discussion will get even more pointed when it turns to nursing homes, where pretty much all residents are, by definition, already sick when first admitted.

Mrs OBumble

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Some lads from UL have said it better than I can - here's RTE's summary of their work: https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/


I suspect the discussion will get even more pointed when it turns to nursing homes, where pretty much all residents are, by definition, already sick when first admitted.

I saw that, it has a glaring omission in that it doesn't factor in the additional reduction in deaths from the norm due to the lockdown e.g. Car crashes, work place incidents, farm incidents, etc.

Haven't a clue how it relates to your comment

Just spotted bikos post, moving to the covid chat thread from now on