Galway COVID-19, local news and discussion

_Whimsical_

From Galway Advertiser facebook

14 new cases of COVID-19 in Galway, according to today's figures. This is one of the highest increases in the city and county. This makes a total of 432.

Rising complacency coming home to roost?

dastardly00

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

From Galway Advertiser facebook



Rising complacency coming home to roost?

Too early to make a judgement. I think often the number of reported cases is higher on a Monday. Have to wait to see if there is a trend.

JoeA3

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

From Galway Advertiser facebook



Rising complacency coming home to roost?

The “protesters” out on the Headford road last week might well have something to do with those numbers.

inisboffin

JoeA3 wrote: »

The “protesters” out on the Headford road last week might well have something to do with those numbers.

Aren’t these numbers reflecting 3-4 week old activity?

_Whimsical_

inisboffin wrote: »

Aren’t these numbers reflecting 3-4 week old activity?

I don't think it's that long. It has an incubation period of UPTO 14 days, so I suppose it reflects behaviour within that window, as late as two weeks ago but could be more recent.
I think the last week has seen people be more lax, or I've noticed that in my area ,friend group and in social media pic posts of people out with another friend etc.

Gadgetman496

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

I don't think it's that long. It has an incubation period of UPTO 14 days, so I suppose it reflects behaviour within that window, as late as two weeks ago but could be more recent.
I think the last week has seen people be more lax, or I've noticed that in my area and friend group, facebook posts of people out with another friend etc.

The latest death figures of 4 represent 2 in the previous 24 hours & 2 deaths from April.

Discodog

JoeA3 wrote: »

The “protesters” out on the Headford road last week might well have something to do with those numbers.

A sudden large number, going against the trend, is likely to be a cluster.

Wompa1

Last night they announced there was a new nursing home cluster. They didn't say which nursing home or where but based on the significant uptick, MAYBE it's in Galway.

ben.schlomo

Wompa1 wrote: »

Last night they announced there was a new nursing home cluster. They didn't say which nursing home or where but based on the significant uptick, MAYBE it's in Galway.

I know of one locally where a death occured last week.

_Whimsical_

JoeA3 wrote: »

The “protesters” out on the Headford road last week might well have something to do with those numbers.

That seems to be the rumour.
I've heard from a very reliable source that it is the case but as I can't quote it I can't say it's absolute fact here.


It would be much more reassuring to know if these figures represent clusters or community transmission.

Discodog

The Headford Road checkpoints disappeared a while ago.

Whereisgalway

Discodog wrote: »

The Headford Road checkpoints disappeared a while ago.

Has there been a note?

grbear

Seems like six new cases in Galway today. Galway seems to be well out of step with most of the country unfortunately.

amandstu

grbear wrote: »

Seems like six new cases in Galway today. Galway seems to be well out of step with most of the country unfortunately.

Yes ,I counted 6 .It's 438 now.

Bobeagleburger

6 is a small amount.

Great to see numbers falling overall

inisboffin

I meant activity reported tomorrow is likely to be from at least 2 weeks old (cluster or not). Our R numbers will of course go up surely, but that's in a big part due to expanded testing criteria, no?

In other words if there was a demo a week ago, people would only be symptomatic (if even) now, maybe getting tested, and then waiting a week or more for that to show up as a stat.

amandstu

inisboffin wrote: »

Our R numbers will of course go up surely, but that's in a big part due to expanded testing criteria, no?
.

Don't see a reason the R number would go up because of increased or better testing.

If testing was perfect it would show the R number in real time but as it is, it shows it ,(roughly) as it was in an earlier time ,dependent on how long it took to get results .

I don't see how the difference in those two testing regimes would mean one would be more likely to give a higher R number than the other.

If the infective rate of the virus had been actually falling over the period then the better testing regime would give a lower R number but if it was rising then the number it gave would be higher than that given by the more rudimentary regime.

Prepared to be corrected,of course

Discodog

inisboffin wrote: »

I meant activity reported tomorrow is likely to be from at least 2 weeks old (cluster or not). Our R numbers will of course go up surely, but that's in a big part due to expanded testing criteria, no?

In other words if there was a demo a week ago, people would only be symptomatic (if even) now, maybe getting tested, and then waiting a week or more for that to show up as a stat.

The demo was over a week after the checkpoints were put in place.

inisboffin

Discodog wrote: »

The demo was over a week after the checkpoints were put in place.

So less than 3 weeks total? I’m still trying to see how the demonstration could be realistically pinpointed as the reason for higher numbers yesterday?

inisboffin

amandstu wrote: »

Don't see a reason the R number would go up because of increased or better testing.

If testing was perfect it would show the R number in real time but as it is, it shows it ,(roughly) as it was in an earlier time ,dependent on how long it took to get results .

I don't see how the difference in those two testing regimes would mean one would be more likely to give a higher R number than the other.

If the infective rate of the virus had been actually falling over the period then the better testing regime would give a lower R number but if it was rising then the number it gave would be higher than that given by the more rudimentary regime.

Prepared to be corrected,of course

Of the four people I know that were tested (only one in Galway), none got a result sooner than 3 weeks after showing any sign of a symptom. That’s anecdotal I know but that’s my experience with different people in different areas.

If as many people as in Iceland are asymptomatic and we expand the testing criteria, of course the r number will rise as we will see more people rest positive (we just didn’t suspect they were)

Discodog

inisboffin wrote: »

So less than 3 weeks total? I’m still trying to see how the demonstration could be realistically pinpointed as the reason for higher numbers yesterday?

I don't think the demo is seen as the moment that caused spread especially in a group that live so close together. The demo was a protest against the checkpoints. So whatever caused the checkpoints was there three weeks ago.

amandstu

inisboffin wrote: »

Of the four people I know that were tested (only one in Galway), none got a result sooner than 3 weeks after showing any sign of a symptom. That’s anecdotal I know but that’s my experience with different people in different areas.

If as many people as in Iceland are asymptomatic and we expand the testing criteria, of course the r number will rise as we will see more people rest positive (we just didn’t suspect they were)

I still don't think it is obvious but I suspect the answer is mathematically quite complicated and wouldn't know where to look for a good answer.

Unless we have an epidemiologist in the house.....

inisboffin

amandstu wrote: »

I still don't think it is obvious but I suspect the answer is mathematically quite complicated and wouldn't know where to look for a good answer.

Unless we have an epidemiologist in the house.....

The experts don't even agree, just listen to Joe (kidding). But there yes even among experts there is no one track and even if there were, we don't know that systems are functioning well. Anecdotal evidence is just that but in a country the size and 'connected' as Ireland, we are a bit of an anomaly in terms of anecdotal evidence. Our 2 degrees of separation habits (I don't mean for spreading the virus, just for news), definitely skew other models.

I would hazard a guess that at least a few other boardsies know someone 'high up' in one area or with 'top knowledge' in another, but at the end of the day there is no correct answer, so we are going on logic as much as we can.

Mrs OBumble

inisboffin wrote: »

If as many people as in Iceland are asymptomatic and we expand the testing criteria, of course the r number will rise as we will see more people rest positive (we just didn’t suspect they were)

Not necessarily, because the current test is for active disease, not has-had-it-and-recovered.

I have a totally non scientific hunch that the number who've had a mild version is huge. But we don't know if that will be of any benefit yet.

inisboffin

Mrs OBumble wrote: »

Not necessarily, because the current test is for active disease, not has-had-it-and-recovered.

I have a totally non scientific hunch that the number who've had a mild version is huge. But we don't know if that will be of any benefit yet.

I agree with your second point. However TONS of pals in the US are being offered antibody tests (even though we don't know if it will offer protection, this leads me to believe they think there is some protection in it?) They are a tenner a pop apparently! Cheap for 'merika!

flazio

I do wonder what would happen if I were to receive a blood transfusion from a donor who had recovered from the virus. Would my body then produce the anti Covid 19 antibodies?
Probably not, otherwise it'd probably be put into practice somewhere by now.
Anyway not Galway specific just my wandering thoughts, please continue.

New Home

flazio wrote: »

I do wonder what would happen if I were to receive a blood transfusion from a donor who had recovered from the virus. Would my body then produce the anti Covid 19 antibodies?
Probably not, otherwise it'd probably be put into practice somewhere by now.
Anyway not Galway specific just my wandering thoughts, please continue.

I'd imagine it would act as a serum (e.g. like anti-venom would), not like a vaccine, so no.

_Whimsical_

flazio wrote: »

I do wonder what would happen if I were to receive a blood transfusion from a donor who had recovered from the virus. Would my body then produce the anti Covid 19 antibodies?
Probably not, otherwise it'd probably be put into practice somewhere by now.
Anyway not Galway specific just my wandering thoughts, please continue.

They're actually using this as an experimental treatment right now, well that is to say they're giving people blood plasma from previous patients which contains antibodies. There are some success stories and the NHS in the UK is currently seeking plasma donations from people with a previous positive test that they plan to use to use in research to see just how useful it is.
There's a little info here : https://www.mayoclinic.org/tests-procedures/convalescent-plasma-therapy/about/pac-20486440

grbear

7 new cases in Galway based on today's numbers.

_Whimsical_

grbear wrote: »

7 new cases in Galway based on today's numbers.

So 27 reported in the last 3 days.
The rumour about a Galway cluster in the last few weeks was that there were 30 suspected cases. Maybe this is what we are seeing. The next few days will tell I guess.
If it's not a cluster I'd think we might be heading for trouble though.