Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

BLIZZARD7

facehugger99 wrote: »

Today's figures from the UK don't appear to be showing any exponential growth in numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

No doubt you are able to hear that train wreck approaching though anyway.

Why do you believe the UK will follow a different pattern to Spain, France, Germany, Italy?

Wibbs

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

God knows, but it could be down to something simple like modes of transmission? Just shooting the breeze here, but I would imagine that in the case of spread by direct contact from say a worker flying in from a hot zone you're going to have more working aged people being exposed and getting infected, but with a more community spread type scenario you'd have more older and younger folks being exposed in the family homes etc. The kids don't show up much because it seems to be mild if present at all in children, but the elderly are more likely to rpesent with symptoms and complications?

gmisk

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Why do you believe the UK will follow a different pattern to Spain, France, Germany, Italy?

It's an island which might help?

rosiem

WAZZA1989 wrote: »

I honestly do not want to panic anyone, and I am certainly not scaremongering,this is a scary situation!
This is reliable information I have been given and I believe is important to share

Only facts should be shared at this point anything else adds to the panic another poster has already stated that different figures for the mater you are not helping leave it to the official figures

dinorebel

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I mean no experts in Covid-19 , a novel virus for humans.

Seems to be 10 to 15 self appointed experts in this thread alone.

Drumpot

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Well there goes that rumour:

https://twitter.com/ThomasByrneTD/status/1237394636680753154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1237394636680753154&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thejournal.ie%2Fcoronavirus-liveblog-5040048-Mar2020%2F

2 days ago the Parades were proceeding so I would imagine this can change quickly. Spoke with my youngest childs teacher and she thinks maybe the first death might be when they pull the trigger on schools.

Incidentally, I know somebody put up some scientific work that suggested cancelling flights from an infected zone doesnt really make much of a difference but I really cant work that out when it comes to Italy. Practically every country in Europe and some around the world haev had their first cases from Italy and are still tracing alot of their cases from this country. It doesnt ad up on any level and sounds more like when the Tobacco companies were lobbying against the idea that smoking is harmful to your health.

How many of our cases are relating to Italy ? 90% ? So if we had in theory forced self isolation with anybody from Italy in last 3 weeks, regardless of how many people who were in Italy that were infected, they would at least be not around spreading the disease.

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Why do you believe the UK will follow a different pattern to Spain, France, Germany, Italy?

Never mind that, it IS following the same pattern - doubling every 2 - 3 days at the moment

errlloyd

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

My suggestion is that it is simply who is reporting at this stage. If you're 25 in Italy and you get the symptoms do you even bother being tested? They're not going to let you into a hospital, they don't have a treatment for you in there.

I suspect a lot of the younger Italian cases are just self isolating, and not reporting.

Germany still has hospital capacity, so I reckon everyone who gets something like it gets tested.

darjeeling

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

I think a lot could depend on the level of testing in different countries.
I think Germany has been more proactive and is finding cases earlier, which is why there were no deaths until yesterday.
It seems Italy started much later because they started seeing deaths at the same time as they started detecting cases, and in most fatal cases there's reckoned to be a ~3-4 week lag between infection and deaths. They are likely prioritising testing of more severe - i.e. older - cases even now.

Another factor could be social organisation. Less mixing between age groups could reduce cross-infection between generations. In China, as far as I know (anyone here know more?) older people often live with their children and grandchildren. In Europe and the USA they more often live separately in their own homes or in communities. So it might take longer to pick up the spread at the start, but once it gets into a nursing home then it becomes very visible, as happened in Washington State.

Mic 1972

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

Italy doesnt have capacity to treat older than 65, which means they are all pretty much left to their own devices. That increase the death rate of older people

indough

Wibbs wrote: »

God knows, but it could be down to something simple like modes of transmission? Just shooting the breeze here, but I would imagine that in the case of spread by direct contact from say a worker flying in from a hot zone you're going to have more working aged people being exposed and getting infected, but with a more community spread type scenario you'd have more older and younger folks being exposed in the family homes etc. The kids don't show up much because it seems to be mild if present at all in children, but the elderly are more likely to rpesent with symptoms and complications?

Yeah, it’s because they aren’t testing mild cases in Italy

jester77

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

A lot of the cases in Germany are from families returning from mid-term vacations. They are quickly quarantined, people they have come into contact with are isolated, and schools/creches effected are closed for 2 weeks. That has helped stopping it spread to the older population thus far.

gabeeg

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Italy doesnt have capacity to treat older than 65, which means they are all pretty much left to their own devices. That increase the death rate of older people

In fairness that was one report from a doc in Northern Italy

It's not gonna be the same countrywide

tobefrank321

facehugger99 wrote: »

Today's figures from the UK don't appear to be showing any exponential growth in numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

No doubt you are able to hear that train wreck approaching though anyway.

Without wishing to cause panic, you can only really measure exponential growth over a 5-7 day period, so lets take the median.
6 days ago, the UK had 85 cases. Today they have 373.
That's a growth of 4.5 times in less than a week.
If they don't enforce strict isolations, travel bans to and from cluster areas, you can expect something like 1500 cases this time next week.

BLIZZARD7

gmisk wrote: »

It's an island which might help?

10's of thousands of people flying in and out every day , connected by train to the continent. I don't think that will make any difference, especially as it reaches a point where the majority of cases aren't imported, they are community spread.

Assetbacked

tobefrank321

dinorebel wrote: »

Seems to be 10 to 15 self appointed experts in this thread alone.

And at least a similar number with their head in the sand.

Mic 1972

errlloyd wrote: »

My suggestion is that it is simply who is reporting at this stage. If you're 25 in Italy and you get the symptoms do you even bother being tested? They're not going to let you into a hospital, they don't have a treatment for you in there.

I suspect a lot of the younger Italian cases are just self isolating, and not reporting.

Germany still has hospital capacity, so I reckon everyone who gets something like it gets tested.

italy is testing al lot more than germany, people with mild symtoms are advised to self isolate regardless of age. People who develop severe symtoms are admitted to hospital only if they qualify (age, pre-existing conditions, etc)

facehugger99

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Why do you believe the UK will follow a different pattern to Spain, France, Germany, Italy?

Different geography, culture, weather, responses.

Plenty of differences.

Let's not go full chicken licken with all this sky is falling nonsense - it serves nothing other than to stoke fear and hysteria.

fits

Myocardial injury associated with the SARS- CoV-2 occurred in 5 of the first 41 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Wuhan, which mainly manifested as an increase in high- sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs- cTnI) levels (>28 pg/ml)3. In this study, four of five patients with myocardial injury were admit-ted to the intensive- care unit (ICU), which indicates the serious nature of the myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19. Blood- pressure levels were signifi-cantly higher in patients treated in the ICU than in those not treated in the ICU (mean systolic blood pressure 145 mmHg versus 122 mmHg; P <0.001)3. In another report of 138 patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, 36 patients with severe symptoms were treated in the ICU1. The levels of biomarkers of myocardial injury were significantly higher in patients treated in the ICU than in those not treated in the ICU (median creatine kinase (CK)- MB level 18 U/l versus 14 U/l, P <0.001; hs- cTnI level 11.0 pg/ml versus 5.1 pg/ml, P=0.004), suggesting that patients with severe symptoms often have compli-cations involving acute myocardial injury1. In addition, among the confirmed cases of SARS- CoV-2 infection reported by the National Health Commission of China (NHC), some of the patients first went to see a doctor because of cardiovascular symptoms. The patients presented with heart palpitations and chest tightness rather than with respiratory symptoms, such as fever and cough, but were later diagnosed with COVID-19. Among the people who died from COVID-19 reported by the NHC, 11.8% of patients without underlying CVD had substantial heart damage, with elevated levels of cTnI or cardiac arrest during hospitalization. Therefore, in patients with COVID-19, the incidence of cardiovascular symptoms is high, owing to the systemic inflammatory response and immune system disorders during disease progression.

Source: Nature

Strazdas

errlloyd wrote: »

My suggestion is that it is simply who is reporting at this stage. If you're 25 in Italy and you get the symptoms do you even bother being tested? They're not going to let you into a hospital, they don't have a treatment for you in there.

I suspect a lot of the younger Italian cases are just self isolating, and not reporting.

Germany still has hospital capacity, so I reckon everyone who gets something like it gets tested.

I didn't realise until today that Italy has the oldest population in Europe. It may well be a factor in the high case numbers and fatalities, if not the only factor.

niallo27

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

Well I think the median age of the cluster point in italy is more important than the whole country.

josip

Downlinz wrote: »

Just a thought but Italy has a large church going culture on a weekly basis while Germany doesn't really outside of holidays. Perhaps it's spreading more rapidly among the elderly there while in most countries older people are less likely to attend large events in small, confined spaces.

The average Italian is way more social and touchy feely than your average German.
Older + Touchy Feely + Social + Covid 19 = Not Good

WAZZA1989

rosiem wrote: »

Only facts should be shared at this point anything else adds to the panic another poster has already stated that different figures for the mater you are not helping leave it to the official figures

Sure thing! I am sure this will be announced some time in the future least then although it may be too late, you'll know I was sharing real information! I have nothing to gain from spreading lies or fake news. For the lady who's mam is in Naas I do hope she gets better soon, sincerely.

DellyBelly

Strazdas wrote: »

From the practical viewpoint, the Chief Medical Officer in England today said she thinks people are far more at risk at indoor events than outdoor ones : the virus doesn't survive long outdoors and finds it difficult to transmit itself.

That's interesting to know. I would have thought being outside in a large crowd would just be as dangerous as bein indoor. Good to know

New Home

gabeeg wrote: »

In fairness that was one report from a doc in Northern Italy

It's not gonna be the same countrywide

The rest of the country is going to be worse, the facilities elsewhere aren't half as good - lots of people from other parts of Italy used to travel to the North to get treated.

bekker

facehugger99 wrote: »

Today's figures from the UK don't appear to be showing any exponential growth in numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

No doubt you are able to hear that train wreck approaching though anyway.

That's 319 to 373 an indices of 1.17 for the day, applied to Ireland's 24 gives today at 28, and tomorrow at 33. That's what exponential growth is.

wakka12

A Canadian man has tested positive after holidaying in Switzerland .

First death in Morocco

Lord Trollington

WAZZA1989 wrote: »

I am sorry I cannot name the source and I am sorry for that but it is a very reliable source from inside the hospital

I have also been told 13 patients in Mater not 2 again I cannot name the source but I can assure you it is reliable

The Naas case is true. I've an extremely reliable source working in Naas hospital and it was a suspected case last night confirmed this morning .

Stevieluvsye

I'm awaiting the first "I have the coronavirus" thread #threadmeltdown

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

I didn't realise until today that Italy has the oldest population in Europe. It may well be a factor in the high case numbers and fatalities, if not the only factor.

Age is not a reason for high number of cases. Deaths ,yes.

facehugger99

wakka12 wrote: »

A Canadian man has tested positive after holidaying in Switzerland .

Sounds like the start of a joke.

megabomberman

Sigma101 wrote: »

Some remarkable disparities in the statistics regarding the age profiles of people infected with the virus are beginning to appear.

In Italy the median age of the population is 45 years. The median age of people infected with Covid-19 is 65 years.

In Germany the median age of the population is 46, but the median age of those infected is 41 years!

Does anyone have any theories on why the virus is infecting younger people in Germany and older people in Italy?

The likely answer is the Italians now and for the past couple of weeks have only been testing the serious cases which are disproportionately older, this explains the high death rates as well.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

gmisk wrote: »

It's an island which might help?

Have you not seen the title of the Lahv Lahn thread?

facehugger99 wrote: »

I'd imagine one of the biggest problems the health service will face is an influx of panic-merchants with dry coughs clogging up A&E.

Oh I'm sure anyone who is currently aware of developing events won't be going to hospital unless they're in serious distress.

Cork Boy 53

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Well there goes that rumour:

https://twitter.com/ThomasByrneTD/status/1237394636680753154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1237394636680753154&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thejournal.ie%2Fcoronavirus-liveblog-5040048-Mar2020%2F

We`ll see. Up to the weekend there were no plans to cancel the parades either but look how quickly that changed after the government ministers had their health briefing. Anything is possible in the current situation.

BLIZZARD7

facehugger99 wrote: »

Different geography, culture, weather, responses.

Plenty of differences.

Let's not go full chicken licken with all this sky is falling nonsense - it serves nothing other than to stoke fear and hysteria.

Responses? Hahaha what are they doing differently?

Geography? How would that impact the spread specifically?

Culture? Il give you that one, less touchy greetings vs the Mediterraneans.

Weather? Nah we (+the UK) are in the same conditions as areas that have already had massive outbreaks.

I'm saying that by not introducing preventative measure early enough we (and the UK) will cause panic and excessive spread of the virus. This is just common sense, not hysteria.

Drumpot

Strazdas wrote: »

Hold your horses, she's not calling for outdoor events to go ahead, merely talking about what science says on the subject of transmission

She also predicts a rapid spike in UK cases soon

How can you engage in social distancing at a major sports event ? I am serious, I can get on board with evidence that makes sense, but this is just completely at odds with what we are being told to do.

Going to a sporting event with thousands of people attending, all with their own different levels of hygiene and many getting hammered which makes them more vulnerable to being stupid (or even more stupid), does not seem to fit in with any of the regular warnings and suggestions we are now being told to do.

So why are football matches being played behind closed doors if its not really that unsafe ? I would say any private company looking at profits will only be too happy to use this an excuse to not take precautions. But now football matches are starting to be played behind closed doors. They dont do that if "science" proves its not really going to make a difference.

gabeeg

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Have you not seen the title of the Lahv Lahn thread?


Oh I'm sure anyone who is currently aware of developing events won't be going to hospital unless they're in serious distress.

The hospitals are emptying out - down 58.72% on this day last year

http://137.191.241.85/ed/ED.php?EDDATE=10%2F3%2F2020

Strazdas

DellyBelly wrote: »

That's interesting to know. I would have thought being outside in a large crowd would just be as dangerous as bein indoor. Good to know

Yes, so according to this, you might be far more at risk in a crowded pub or concert or a meeting or church than any large outdoor event.

jam_mac_jam

Lord Trollington wrote: »

The Naas case is true. I've an extremely reliable source working in Naas hospital and it was a suspected case last night confirmed this morning .

The reliable source shouldn't have told you that and you shouldn't be posting it.

Even if it is true.

Mic 1972

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Responses? Hahaha what are they doing differently?

Geography? How would that impact the spread specifically?
Culture? Il give you that one, less touchy greetings vs the Mediterraneans.
Weather? Nah we (+the UK) are in the same temperature brackets as areas that have already had massive outbreaks.
I'm saying that by not introducing preventative measure early enough we (and the UK) will cause panic and excessive spread of the virus. This is just common sense, not hysteria.

I agree with you, if anything UK has damper colder weather and crawded pubs to spread the virus even more easily

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, so according to this, you might be far more at risk in a crowded pub or concert or a meeting or church than any large outdoor event.

This is a hill that yourself and Oliver Callan appear to be determined to die on.

RandomName2

secman wrote: »

So they have closed down and banned those live animal slaughter markets for "warm meat" ?

Yes, the market which caused this entire outbreak was shut down on January 1st, and all sale of wild animals for meat was banned a few weeks later.

Those 'wet markets' (God) are some of the most disturbing things to witness. Absolutely revolting. It is not like we didn't get warning about this before. SARS was caused in the exact same sort of environment.

Pacing Mule

https://twitter.com/ThomasByrneTD/status/1237394636680753154?s=09

Claiming no plans yet to close schools

Steve F

Strazdas wrote: »

From the practical viewpoint, the Chief Medical Officer in England today said she thinks people are far more at risk at indoor events than outdoor ones : the virus doesn't survive long outdoors and finds it difficult to transmit itself.

Same with any virus
That's why hot,stuffy buildings,homes are unhealthy.Breeding ground for bugs
Also another reason why 'flu is "seasonal".Less people crammed together breathing in the germs from Late April to September

Funkfield

facehugger99 wrote: »

Sounds like the start of a joke.

A Canadian man has tested positive after holidaying in Switzerland .

Oh really. Has he a fever?

Why yes, he's Berning up.

Strazdas

Drumpot wrote: »

How can you engage in social distancing at a major sports event ? I am serious, I can get on board with evidence that makes sense, but this is just completely at odds with what we are being told to do.

Going to a sporting event with thousands of people attending, all with their own different levels of hygiene and many getting hammered which makes them more vulnerable to being stupid (or even more stupid), does not seem to fit in with any of the regular warnings and suggestions we are now being told to do.

So why are football matches being played behind closed doors if its not really that unsafe ? I would say any private company looking at profits will only be too happy to use this an excuse to not take precautions. But now football matches are starting to be played behind closed doors. They dont do that if "science" proves its not really going to make a difference.

One of the points she made is that the virus doesn't like the open air and doesn't survive long at all whereas it can flourish indoors.

I would imagine the behind closed door matches are purely as a precaution, given the large numbers of people involved.

owlbethere

Is there any news about the care assistant in the nursing home in Washington? She returned from her holidays and went to work. She had no symptoms. Did she eventually develop symptoms?

Lord TSC

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

We`ll see. Up to the weekend there were no plans to cancel the parades either but look how quickly that changed after the government ministers had their health briefing. Anything is possible in the current situation.

If they are closing on Friday afternoon, they'll wait and announce it on Thursday evening, while letting it leak like today so people are prepared.

Even issueing a statement denying ti basically starts the narrative that there's a strong possibility of needing too. If they'd ignored it, it would have been dismissed as an online rumour. By achknowledging, even by denying, they've solidified the idea in peoples heads.

splinter65

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Have you not seen the title of the Lahv Lahn thread?


Oh I'm sure anyone who is currently aware of developing events won't be going to hospital unless they're in serious distress.

You are attributing common sense and consideration for others to the entirety of the nation whereas in actual fact there is a huge swathe of the population who would trample over my 85 year old mother into the ground in their stampede to get into A&E in order to make absolutely sure that they HAVENT got Covid19.