Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Tacitus Kilgore

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Ireland - 27th February Zero cases here in the ROI.

On the 1st of March 2020 the1st case of Covid-19 was recorded here in Ireland (ROI) by the HSE.

Trajectory from 1st of March . . . .

1, 6, 13, 19, 21, 24, 34, (. .), (. .), (. .) . . .

34 cases recorded as of today, Tuesday 10th March

Total recall!

rainbowtrout

smelly sock wrote: »

Does anyone actually believe a word the chinese say? To go from hundreds and thousands of cases on some days to 0 is BS in my book and they are trying to look after their economy.

Wuhan and other Chinese cities have been on lockdown since 23rd January. That's a couple of days short of 7 weeks. It's had the desired effect.

namloc1980

BloodBath wrote: »

We're not all jammed on a cruise ship full of infected staff and passengers though are we.

We're in a sparsely populated, low density island with a tiny number of cases and we're taking early action to contain it.

But hey let's use some hypothetical "worst case guesstimate scenario" BS numbers.

We're not testing for community transmission here unless they end up in hospital and are picked up there. There are more infections out there than the confirmed number.

Mic 1972

brevity wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts

This is a sobering watch.

Dr. Michael Osterholm is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, and the founding director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota. An internationally renowned epidemiologist, he has been at the forefront of public health preparedness, has led many outbreak investigations of international importance, and advises world leaders on the ever-growing list of microbial threats.

I'm watching right now, it's truly scary. The guy is just so honest about the whole thing.
The only approach is basically trying not to get infected

BloodBath

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

for reference there are around 30,000 deaths per year in Ireland, so 3 times that from covid alone

There won't be 1% of that never mind 300%.

iamwhoiam

Downlinz wrote: »

Just look at the two cruise ships and the infection rate on those. It spreads like wildfire without aggressive containment measures and isn't going to go away without a vaccine which may be over a year away.

Lucky we are not on a crowded cruise ship then .

Hamsterchops

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Total recall!

Arnold Schwarzenegger

CinemaGuy45

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I'm watching right now, it's truly scary. The guy is just so honest about the whole thing.
The only approach is basically trying not to get infected

Silly me thats what I was doing wrong.:D

Giving that video a watch by the way.

normanoffside

Hamsterchops wrote: »

(. .), (. .), (. .) . . .

Boobies!

Ipso

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Smartypants.:rolleyes:


I assume you have done it what are the numbers?;)

139 cases after 28 days, and Microsoft was invented by Bill Gates so it must be true

JJayoo

Oh wait Ryanair aren't stopping flights until Friday hmmm

BloodBath

namloc1980 wrote: »

We're not testing for community transmission here unless they end up in hospital and are picked up there. There are more infections out there than the confirmed number.

It still ain't going to be anywhere near 50-60%.

amadangomor

BloodBath wrote: »

We're not all jammed on a cruise ship full of infected staff and passengers though are we.

We're in a sparsely populated, low density island with a tiny number of cases and we're taking early action to contain it.

But hey let's use some hypothetical "worst case guesstimate scenario" BS numbers.

Nobody is saying that it will happen but what will actually come to pass will be somewhere between the best case scenario and the worst so no harm discussing all possibilities so we are prepared.

It's just being realistic, pragmatic and smart.

freshpopcorn

owlbethere

s982102 wrote: »

China didnt make the mess! It was the bloody virus that made the mess. It fact, China did everything it could to stop spreading. It could have started in any country.

Their market practices were bio hazardous. Live animals, dead animals, cooking dead animals, at markets. Farm animals, animals we consider pets, wildlife animals, rodents, all together. It definitely contributed to this mess. SARS 1 came from China. And now this is another form.

CinemaGuy45

Ipso wrote: »

139 cases after 28 days, and Microsoft was invented by Bill Gates so it must be true

Don't trust that number have you updated you're antivirus?

bodhrandude

MCKG wrote: »

Its south Galway.

What town though, Kinvara, Gort, Athenry, Craughwell, Loughrea etc? Why can't they just say the places, why are they not been called out on this in their live broadcasts?

ZX7R

1641 wrote: »

I posted earlier today about modelling that was done in 2006. The results woud seem broadly consistent with these figures, given a current population of about 5 million and the apparent fatality rate of the coronavirus. What we need to hope for is that it is not as infectious as the assumption used in the 2006 model and maybe a lower fatality rate :

Does the % for death take into account age profile and those with under lying issues.
That is is worse case scenario, just wondering if all stats are entered

ChikiChiki

BloodBath wrote: »

We're not all jammed on a cruise ship full of infected staff and passengers though are we.

We're in a sparsely populated, low density island with a tiny number of cases and we're taking early action to contain it.

But hey let's use some hypothetical "worst case guesstimate scenario" BS numbers.

We have had 9 years of governments who have puiled the wool over ever

Kermit.de.frog

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Ireland - 27th February Zero cases here in the ROI.

On the 1st of March 2020 the1st case of Covid-19 was recorded here in Ireland (ROI) by the HSE.

Trajectory from 1st of March . . . .

1, 6, 13, 19, 21, 24, 34, (. .), (. .), (. .) . . .

34 cases recorded as of today, Tuesday 10th March.

I can see the future

skimpydoo

BloodBath wrote: »

We're not all jammed on a cruise ship full of infected staff and passengers though are we.

We're in a sparsely populated, low density island with a tiny number of cases and we're taking early action to contain it.

But hey let's use some hypothetical "worst case guesstimate scenario" BS numbers.

Early action?? are you taking the piss? All public gatherings should have been stopped last week and all schools, colleges and universities should be closed. By the time we decide to close schools, colleges and universities it will be too late.

paul71

BloodBath wrote: »

It still ain't going to be anywhere near 50-60%.

What is your basis for thinking that? Is there an immunity to an entirely new virus among the population that only you know of?

joe40

rainbowtrout wrote: »

Wuhan and other Chinese cities have been on lockdown since 23rd January. That's a couple of days short of 7 weeks. It's had the desired effect.

I wonder will China now ban travel to/from the rest of the world. How else will they avoid a fresh outbreak.

Downlinz

BloodBath wrote: »

We're not all jammed on a cruise ship full of infected staff and passengers though are we.

We're in a sparsely populated, low density island with a tiny number of cases and we're taking early action to contain it.

But hey let's use some hypothetical "worst case guesstimate scenario" BS numbers.

The cruise ships weren't full of infected either, they set off with just 1 infected and soon had hundreds.
Being jammed into a concert hall, church or any kind of public transport with one infected would have much the same effect.

The estimate is from Hong Kong's public health epidemiologist Prof Gabriel Leung and 60% is his lower range estimate, 80% was the higher end.
His message isn't that we're doomed, it's to outline what will happen if we don't take necessary containment measures.

4068ac1elhodqr

BloodBath wrote: »

It still ain't going to be anywhere near 50-60%.

Did that time-travelling machine experiment work in the end?

The uk are actually hoping for 50% penetration rate, as an optimistic outcome. The range is wide 20-80%, and it's still too early to call from their experts.

You must be more of an expert in all this, than all the other experts put together, fair play!

igCorcaigh

BloodBath wrote: »

Based on what? Total horse****. Where the hell are they pulling 50-60% of the population infected out of?

That is completely unprecedented anywhere even in the worst localised areas of infection.

So he said he doesn't know but he's throwing numbers out there anyway that people then quote as fact. It's BS.



He's a moron then taking speculative "worst case scenario" numbers and ramping up the fear and panic. Bad leadership.



Because they have no basis in reality.

They have basis in mathematical modelling, which is callibrated with current observations.

The window of uncertainty is constantly narrowing as we move through this.

expectationlost

skimpydoo wrote: »

She is on because she has a compromised immune system and she can talk about self-isolation.

she started offering herself as contract tracer... thats going beyond her personal knowledge

BloodBath

amadangomor wrote: »

Nobody iis saying that it will happen but what will actually come to pass will be somewhere between the best case scenario and the worst so no harm discussing all possibilities so we are prepared.

It's just being realistic, pragmatic and smart.

Except you aren't taking a best case scenario. You are taking a worst case scenario that has no basis in reality and would require 0 action from the population and government.

There is nothing realistic about those numbers, nothing pragmatic about it and nothing smart about spreading fear to the uninformed by using them.

It's outright dangerous and stupid.

Spleerbun

What's the best estimate for the date all flights in and out of the country are shut down?

saabsaab

Mellor wrote: »

Not sure of the relevance tbh.

I'll draw a word picture.


Rubs head releasing multiple skin cells then coughs releasing hundreds of droplets some fall onto airborne cells and are carried along by a draft for several metres landing on someones nose.

Hurrache

odyssey06 wrote: »

The Taoiseach said mathematical modelling to predict the trend of the virus will have to be continually updated to take account of fast-changing data. But he said what was learnt so far from other countries and other experience suggested that “up to 50pc or 60pc” of the country’s population could get coronavirus... “There will be a significant proportion who will require critical care. And a percentage that we don’t know, we honestly don’t know yet – it could be less than 1pc, it could be as much as 3pc – or 3.4pc – mortality. We don’t know yet,” the Taoiseach warned.
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/up-to-85000-irish-people-could-die-from-coronavirus-in-worst-case-scenario-taoiseach-indicates-as-three-more-diagnosed-39029363.html

Quite a bit different to those saying he said that that many people WILL die isn't it.

obi604

Is the 9 o clock Rte news not on tonight?

fritzelly

America is gonna be Italy, Iran, Wuhan and S Korea all rolled into one

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237478530411364353

Quantum Erasure

BloodBath wrote: »

There won't be 1% of that never mind 300%.

less than 300 deaths? theres optimism, and then theres ...

ChikiChiki

We have had 9 years of Governments that have pillaged the health system.

If you are only becoming aware of this now, well you well and truly are a grade A f ucking idiot.

You are. Don't dispute it.

Always look at a society and measure it how it treats its less well off.

Well done. You know if you are in that cohort.

expectationlost

Hamsterchops wrote: »

HSE said 21 cases on Friday, no?
With three extra cases now.

3 were announced over the weekend https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland

sadie1502

And why is this worse than SARS 1? Is there a vaccine for SARS?

smelly sock

This Cheltenham thing could really throw petrol on the fire. What an absolute negligent decision.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

namloc1980 wrote: »

We're not testing for community transmission here unless they end up in hospital and are picked up there. There are more infections out there than the confirmed number.

If they have upped the testing numbers to the extent they claim, we'll be starting to have a good idea of the actual spread of the infection by Friday. Personally I'm not leaving the house until then at the very least. I value the health of my family and myself over the economic plans of any government. Those of us lucky enough to escape unscathed from this period in history will look back at this and be awestruck at the lack of compassion shown to the Irish population. Many populations across Europe are already finding out just how expendable they are.

Silverfish wrote: »

Doing these numbers in the euromillions, if I win I'm sitting this out in the Beacon hospital with my own ventilator.

Hate to break it to ya but the HSE have already said that they would be taking over private hospitals as needed. Not even the super-rich have an exit to escape.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237442793242591234

JP Liz V1

Be good if a carrier of it could do an AMA for boards

Silverfish

sadie1502 wrote: »

And why is this worse than SARS 1? Is there a vaccine for SARS?

SARS 1 killed you before you got to infect too many other people.
Covid 19 incubates a LOT longer.

igCorcaigh

Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »

Did that time-travelling machine experiment work in the end?

The uk are actually hoping for 50% penetration rate, as an optimistic outcome. The range is wide 20-80%, and it's still too early to call from their experts.

You must be more of an expert in all this, than all the other experts put together, fair play!

The attack rate is one dimension, how it plays out across time is another.

I think those figures of attack rate are reasonable, this is a new virus after all, but it really comes down to how we control the R0.

If China is at scale 10, business as usual is at scale 0. Where are we as a country going to lie on that scale?

From that estimation, we can then calculate the number of dead.

Marty Bird

amadangomor wrote: »

0 outside Wuhan isn't it? Can happen when you enforce a lockdown and quarantine with an iron fist. We let a pile of Italians in for a piss up last weekend ffs.

Sad and so true.

Hurrache

obi604 wrote: »

Is the 9 o clock Rte news not on tonight?

Their EPG is all messed up on Sky.

JP Liz V1

2 staff members at Ervia have tested positive

BloodBath

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

less than 300 deaths? theres optimism, and then theres ...

Someone has to be.

Beats joining the circle jerk of fear mongering nonsense going on in here.

Silverfish

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Hate to break it to ya but the HSE have already said that they would be taking over private hospitals as needed. Not even the super-rich have an exit to escape.

TBH if I won 40 million, a good chunk of that would go as a donation to vital services.

4068ac1elhodqr

fritzelly wrote: »

America is gonna be Italy, Iran, Wuhan and S Korea all rolled into one

Totally agree the map yesterday showed very wide dispersal, but lowish numbers, once each of those points spreads, and under a market led free economy (where healthcare access isn't assured): could be real messy.

On the plus side, they probably have more 'preppers' per ratio, that anywhere outside e.g. Northern Siberia.

Quantum Erasure

BloodBath wrote: »

Except you aren't taking a best case scenario. You are taking a worst case scenario that has no basis in reality and would require 0 action from the population and government..

what action do you see the government taking to mitigate the numbers, what should they be doing right now?