Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

ceadaoin.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Has anyone asked the simple question of the HSE of they actually have the capacity to undertake community testing?

Because I don't believe they can do this. We already know that this virus spreads exponentially.

I was in Madrid last week and caught the flu while there. In two weeks Spain will be the new Italy. At which point the guidelines will be updated to include Madrid as a hotspot.

I, like everyone, get the flu each year so I'm not going to self isolate based on the guidelines.

No, everyone doesn't get the flu each year. I think the estimates are 20% of the population max will get it in each flu season. Do you actually have flu symptoms or just a cold? If the former then you should get tested if possible.

Kermit.de.frog

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What am I going to call my GP for? I had a very mild flu like I've had before. I didn't develop it after an incubation period. I literally for it the day I arrived.

Is everyone who gets flu supposed to call their GP?

If you are coming from Madrid, yeah.

Hard to know if you are trolling or not though. I suspect the former right now.

bodhrandude

Here's strange one I come across in a blog report. 44 Iranians dead after mistakenly using alcohol to 'fight the coronavirus.' (Thehill)

igCorcaigh

The way I'd like to imagine this (and I know it's not the flu)

But imagine 30 years of flu. Hitting the health system. Our population. All in one year.

jimmycrackcorm

ceadaoin. wrote: »

No, everyone doesn't get the flu each year. I think the estimates are 20% of the population max will get it in each flu season. Do you actually have flu symptoms or just a cold? If the former then you should get tested if possible.

That's my point though. We don't seem to have any capacity to get tested.
I'm just saying that in two weeks people will be saying the same thing about returnees from Spain as they do from Italy now.

niallo27

The Dow Jones rallied after Monday's crash.

Kermit.de.frog

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

That's my point though. We don't seem to have any capacity to get tested.
I'm just saying that in two weeks people will be saying the same thing about returnees from Spain as they do from Italy now.

IF what you say is true I would strongly advise you to contact your GP.

If it is not true then you are just a sad moron. Right?

You come on here telling us you had a flu coming back from Spain and you won't self isolate.

You put yourself and others at risk.

igCorcaigh

niallo27 wrote: »

The Dow Jones rallied after Monday's crash.

It'll do that. There's also the oil play with Saudi etc. These big ups and downs are sometimes an indicator of volatility. How's vix doing.

bodhrandude

A Galway/Connacht thread on Covid 19 for anyone wondering about news in that part of the west.

igCorcaigh

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What am I going to call my GP for? I had a very mild flu like I've had before. I didn't develop it after an incubation period. I literally for it the day I arrived.

Is everyone who gets flu supposed to call their GP?

Flu is at the end of its season right now.
I've had a chest infection for the last few weeks, my doc did ask a few questions.

It's early days with thus virus though, wouldn't be too concerned just yet.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Flu is at the end of its season right now.
I've had a chest infection for the last few weeks, my doc did ask a few questions.

It's early days with thus virus though, wouldn't be too concerned just yet.

At the same time, kdf is right though, you should notify your GP about symptoms. Let them be the judge.

jimmycrackcorm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

At the same time, kdf is right though, you should notify your GP about symptoms. Let them be the judge.

My point still stands. The HSE don't have the capacity to test. Is everyone with flu symptoms supposed to self isolate?

Kermit.de.frog

Panama reports 7 new cases and 1 death.

old_aussie

Second Person Cured Of AIDS

May be of some help in fighting/developing cure for the latest virus


https://www.sciencealert.com/hiv-cured-london-man-still-has-no-trace-of-infection-nearly-3-years-after-treatment

Pseudonym121

China has done a good job but everyone who is extolling their approach needs to realise a few things:

1. Their whole approach was about preventing an overwhelming spread AND peak of infectivity which would overwhelm their health system's intensive care capacity and result in a spike in deaths from 2% to 10% of those infected.

2. Now that they feel they've largely avoided that they're going to loosen the restrictions a little ( whilst not having wasted the crisis to introduce additional controls/tracking for their population ) and allow areas to return to work.

3. Point 2 above will result in an increase in spread but the calculation they have clearly made ( probably correctly ) is that they can keep control of the spread of the virus by a combination of:
a) local ongoing strictures on movement, testing at ingress and egress of all public areas, rapid testing etc and
b) rolling lockdowns on any city/region where it looks likely to be beginning to get out of control.

4. A combination of the two above will result in a steady trickle of cases, 1 to 2% mortality and growing herd immunity whilst waiting for the vaccine:
a) an experimental version for very high risk cohorts hopefully available before October/November when what is happening now will look like an entree compared to what could happen then without either herd immunity or a vaccine and/or
b) a proper vaccine before Spring or Winter 2021 if this becomes seasonal - as appears likely now.


What they're doing is actually very clever and in keeping with good science ( and combined with their style of government etc ). But it is not as though they've beaten this and when they release restrictions we'll see a steady trickle of cases, even some significant clusters and lockdowns but they'll control those too just as they did Wuhan, they have the control template sorted now and will just ease off the brake as much as possible to keep the economy going before hitting it a bit whenever it looks likely to get out of control again in an area. Smart and effective.

As I said when I first posted about this. We'll be still dealing with this in March of 2021 and so will China. Hopefully at a much more controlled level but still present ( absent a real breakthrough in proving a virus is safe enough for widespread use much more rapidly than normally happens ).

Pseudonym121

old_aussie wrote: »

Second Person Cured Of AIDS

May be of some help in fighting the latest virus


https://www.sciencealert.com/hiv-cured-london-man-still-has-no-trace-of-infection-nearly-3-years-after-treatment

No it won't be. In simple terms it requires obliteration of an individual's existing immune system/bone marrow and its replacement with bone marrow from an individual with a rare genetic immunity to HIV.

This isn't something which is going to be widely useful even in those infected with HIV ( although it does point to some avenues of research for more widely applicable cures for those infected with HIV ) never mind COVID-19.

Even if it were possible the timelines just don't match up. Basically if you get COVID-19 very severely and are ventilated and get bilateral interstitial pneumonia it appears you are often dead in 10 to 14 days from onset of symptoms. Even if this treatment could cure people of COVID-19 ( which it cannot ) it is a process of months rather than days or weeks and the process of obliterating the sufferer's immune system would simply accelerate their death.

Pseudonym121

As to the DOW etc... America is only getting started. Their response has been MUCH worse than most of Europe's. I think that sooner rather than later they'll surpass Italy in terms of rapidity of infection and death rates.

Their response hasn't been nearly as good as Europe's for a multitude of reasons and the way their health system is structured acts in opposition to whole community treatment irrespective of ability to pay ( which is essential in the response to this sort of illness ) so they will be hit very, very hard.

The American markets are going to have several more significant daily drops as various data comes out showing projections of spread within their country that they, currently, aren't even considering. I've been out of the stock market since early February in preparation for this and have put plans for moving house in Q4 this year on hold until next year ( house prices will be lower as will interest rates )... plus no point worrying about a house move when the focus needs to be on ensuring I'm around this time next year.

Pseudonym121

Summer2020 wrote: »

I Started out in January thinking this was a China only problem. The last day or so has me seriously worried that this could change our way of life forever. This has all the hall marks of a seismic event in world history. The years of unhindered worldwide travel and open borders could be over.

This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

That would leave 6.75 Billion people alive and now immune to this current strain of COVID-19.

What would happen then is COVID would become a seasonal virus like the flu, we would develop vaccines and as you got older and were at increased risk of dieing you'd get the vaccine. In a few years it would simply be the new normal.

It MIGHT cause governments and companies to deglobalise their supply chains somewhat to protect from the next virus which has this same impact ( which could easily happen every 20 years or so going forward ).


Just to be clear. I am NOT saying 750 million people will die. I'm just illustrating, as a thought experiment, that even if we didn't have any ICU beds and let everyone in the world get infected in the same week humanity would still survive and society would recover and move on.

It is bad but not that bad.

Pseudonym121

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I, like everyone, get the flu each year so I'm not going to self isolate based on the guidelines.

*sigh* And this attitude will kill citizens of this state. *sigh*

You don't self-isolate for yourself. You self-isolate so you don't infect others, who infect others, who infect others and at some point in that chain someone with an underlying illness gets it and dies.

Don't self-isolate for yourself, self-isolate for others. Your attitude is both ignorant and selfish.

evil_seed

evil_seed wrote: »

Due to go to Berlin in 10 days. Flights paid. AirBnB paid.

Would you go?

Yes. Why not? You can get infected just as much from a German as an Irish person.

Still only a very minor number of people infected.

Pseudonym121

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

*sigh* And this attitude will kill citizens of this state. *sigh*

You don't self-isolate for yourself. You self-isolate so you don't infect others, who infect others, who infect others and at some point in that chain someone with an underlying illness gets it and dies.

Don't self-isolate for yourself, self-isolate for others. Your attitude is both ignorant and selfish.

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

Gynoid

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

Michael Osterholm, infectious disease expert, on Joe Rogans podcast. 15 minute extract.

Gynoid

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

Yes. Why not? You can get infected just as much from a German as an Irish person.

Still only a very minor number of people infected.

I have cancelled a trip to Europe this week. It may be possible to get infected here but most chain of causation is from abroad. I don't want to potentially activate a chain of causation from abroad to here. Community transmission here is a different story - especially morally ( from my pov, I mean, others do not have to agree). With community transmission one has less choice. I have a choice not to travel, and I am exercising that choice.

New Home

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

That would leave 6.75 Billion people alive and now immune to this current strain of COVID-19.

What would happen then is COVID would become a seasonal virus like the flu, we would develop vaccines and as you got older and were at increased risk of dieing you'd get the vaccine. In a few years it would simply be the new normal.

It MIGHT cause governments and companies to deglobalise their supply chains somewhat to protect from the next virus which has this same impact ( which could easily happen every 20 years or so going forward ).


Just to be clear. I am NOT saying 750 million people will die. I'm just illustrating, as a thought experiment, that even if we didn't have any ICU beds and let everyone in the world get infected in the same week humanity would still survive and society would recover and move on.

It is bad but not that bad.

Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

Larbre34

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

I don't think you get this at all.

The population of the planet has developed antibodies resistant to some of the major viruses. That took centuries. And some of the serious diseases you mentioned are not airborne contagious or as infectious as Covid 19.

102 years ago, 6% of the population of the planet died of the flu. And that was in a post war slump, with basically zero tourism or business travel and on a much more sparsely populated planet.

So the question for your black and white morality is, how easy is it for you to write off between 75 and 400 million people, mostly old or immunocompromised, today in our high tech 21st century society?

khalessi

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses. Daft choice of examples
Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.
It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.
Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

First of all HIV shouldnt be in that list, it isnt contagious on casual contact unless you plan on having unprotected sex/ sharing needles in the street or workplace etc

Hepatitis A: Transmission is chiefly by drinking contaminated water or eating contaminated food. Hepatitis A can also be spread through infected feces, poor sanitation, and certain sex practices. Hepatitis B: Transmission is via exposure to infected blood, semen, or other bodily fluids.

Scabies, Scabies usually is spread by skin-to-skin contact with a person who has scabies. Scabies sometimes is spread indirectly by sharing items such as clothing, towels, or bedding used by an infested person. Scabies can spread easily under crowded conditions where close body and skin contact is common.

An impetigo infection can occur when the bacteria invades otherwise healthy skin through a cut, insect bite or other injury. This is known as primary impetigo.

An infection can also occur when the bacteria invades the skin as a result of the skin barrier being disrupted by another underlying skin condition, such as head lice, scabies or eczema. This is known as secondary impetigo.

See the Health A-Z topics about head lice, scabies, and eczema for more information about these conditions.

An impetigo infection can spread to other people through close physical contact, or by sharing towels or flannels. As the condition does not cause any symptoms until four to 10 days after initial exposure to the bacteria, it is often easily spread to others unintentionally.

Impetigo is a bacterial infection thought to be more common in children because their immune system has not yet fully developed. The immune system produces antibodies that help to fight infection. However, as the immune system of a young child is underdeveloped, it does not produce enough antibodies to effectively fight off infection, making them more vulnerable to infections such as impetigo.

What is happening around the world and about to happen in Ireland is not similar to any of the exampls you listed.

Secondly,it is not an overreaction to ask people at the moment with flu like symptoms to self isolate and it is good to know that you are ok with a close relative catching Covid 19 and depending on their health or age being ok with them dying. Theyll be glad to know you think self isolating is over reacting

igCorcaigh

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

My point still stands. The HSE don't have the capacity to test. Is everyone with flu symptoms supposed to self isolate?

I don't know, but worth contacting them anyway, at least they get that metric. I'm sure they're measuring these things.

igCorcaigh

New Home wrote: »

Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

RNA viruses mutate all the time. It is extremely rare that it changes to something so different as to cause a unique disease.

Although we have just witnessed it, a virus in one mammal jumped to another.

Away With The Fairies

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What am I going to call my GP for? I had a very mild flu like I've had before. I didn't develop it after an incubation period. I literally for it the day I arrived.

Is everyone who gets flu supposed to call their GP?

How do you know you didn't get an incubation period? It takes anything up to 14 days (it's a new virus, it could be more as well).

It's utterly selfish of people to be going around with the "cold" or "flu" now.

igCorcaigh

That HIV story is interesting, but not a treatment in itself. The meds are extremely good as they are.

The findings behind the study may be useful to finding an alternative though.

When it comes to HIV though, it rather the money be spent on pushing out health care and prevention for all, not chasing a needless treatment that may never come.

Any sorry for OT.
That's my 2c

igCorcaigh

Hopefully end of the tunnel for those people at the harsher end of controls. It must have felt like a lifetime.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237618659172003840?s=19

DOCARCH

I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).

Mellor

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

This is an overreaction. Even in the absolute worst case scenario, 100% infection and 10% death rate ( complete overwhelming of ICU beds ) you'd have about 750 million dead from a world population of 7.5 Billion.

…

It is bad but not that bad.

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

igCorcaigh

DOCARCH wrote: »

I see the USA joined the thousand club overnight, with a 1010 cases now confirmed (and 31 deaths).

I don't think they have a grip on the outbreak at all. Terribly handled.

igCorcaigh

Mellor wrote: »

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.

Pseudonym121

New Home wrote: »

Since we're talking worst case scenario, you forget that this thing mutates very quickly.

No, I'm not but I'm conscious when, a week ago, I was one of the first people here to be stating the sorts of figures which are in public now I was pilloried and so I'm not interested in being attacked again by getting into the prediction business.

As to mutation. It is an RNA virus. it mutates because RNA has far poorer quality control when replicating than DNA. BUT you do have to bear in mind the following:

1. It takes a lot of mutations to make a new strain.

2. Generally speaking ( but not certainly ) most new strains will tend to favour increased infectivity and/or new routes of infection as opposed to increased lethality.

So while new strains will be a problem in that they can turn this into a seasonal thing they should actually attenuate overall mortality - unless we're unlucky --- which, of course, we might be but with numbers this large the role of luck is decreased and probability really does tend to point us in the right direction.

Pseudonym121

Niner leprauchan wrote: »

No, it's realistic. People don't self isolate when they have hiv, flu, hepatitis, scabies, impetago and a whole list of illnesses.

Some people also can't just not go to work or raise their kids.

It's a virus, it will spread. The vast majority will not die just as the vast majority do not die from the common flu but some do.

Christ people are getting so carried away. The dead have not risen!

With all due respect this virus is NOT comparable to the illnesses you mentioned. Most of them aren't airborne and the one that is, flu, has a lower R0, and a mortality rate which is, at most, 1/20th of the mortality of this virus ( potentially even less ).

This is like saying that a BB gun and a 0.5 calibre round from a Barrett sniper rifle are both bullets and therefore their effects are very similar. A BB gun may have difficulty breaking skin, a round from a Barrett rifle will go through an engine block of a car.

Let me be very clear with you. Right now there is NO other communicable illness on the planet which has the potential to kill 1% of the world's population ( 2% of the 50% infected ) in the next 9 months.

If you want to be cavalier about that because you won't be part of that 1% then that says a lot of terrible things about you as a human being. It is, of course, your choice but you'll understand why it would significantly reduce my levels of sympathy for you if you gamble on this and lose.

Pseudonym121

Mellor wrote: »

750 million dead, as a worst case example, is "not that bad". WTF?
I think you've been watching too many apocalypse moves.

Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species. That was my point. Also, you have to bear in mind that various sectors of society are trained to think and experience those sorts of situations ( large scale death etc ) and still be able to function ( doctors, nurses etc ) since if they fall apart emotionally even more people will die.

So, you know, habituation.

adam88

Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse

Mellor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Read carefully. That's not what the poster is saying, in fairness.

I'm aware they weren't predicting that 750m dead will actually happen. They specifically said so.
It was just a worst case scenario. But 750m as a worst case scenario is a complete disaster. And certainly not something that should be considered not that bad. Especially if we include the part about annual mutations bypassing resistance.

Pseudonym121

adam88 wrote: »

Active cases have climbed nearky 10k in just over 4 days. This thing is getting way worse

Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

Far too many people here are obsessing about whether the daily increase will be x or y. It'll vary. What matters is the trajectory we are on due to:
a) government and locally imposed controls ( cancelling Paddy's Day, reducing visitors to hospitals etc )

b) individual responsibility and behaviour ( hand washing, social distancing and aggressive self-isolation if even potentially exposed by those who are in careers where they can do this ).


The tighter the governmental and local controls and the more individual responsibility people take ( not just for themselves but also to help others by behaving appropriately themselves so as to limit spread ) then the more likely we are to be able to lower this trajectory, decrease total infected, increase the amount of time over which we reach this total infected number and thus greatly increase the rate of infection.

Decreased rates of infection will give the health service the ability to provide adequate levels of care to those infected and THAT will greatly reduce death rates.

But if people behave like selfish gombeens then we'll go the other route and, honestly, we won't deserve better.

Kermit.de.frog

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, actually this is progressing along a trajectory more in keeping with the moderate case scenarios and not the worst case scenarios.

I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.

Pseudonym121

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you are about to learn a lesson along with the rest of the population.

No, I think what might happen is that you vastly underestimate how bad the moderate case scenario is and how bad the worst case scenario is.

I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that what you consider moderate is what I'd consider an optimistic scenario. etc etc

Mellor

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, 750 million dead would not constitute an existential threat to the continued existence of humanity. It wouldn't even cause a significant regression in levels of technology.

It would be an almost unimaginable tragedy on a personal level for most people on the planet but it wouldn't be an existential threat to the species.

I understood what you were saying. And I agree that it's not an existential threat to the species.

I'm disagreeing with the notion that an existential threat is the cut-off point where a pandemic ceases being "not that bad".

SMC92Ian

I know they keep pushing wash your hands, but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

DOCARCH

SMC92Ian wrote: »

....but can't we just catch it from someone near use coughing?

Yes.

Hamsterchops

Nadine Dorries MP tests positive for Covid-19.

At this stage even Boris himself may be infected?

Wonder has he been greeting other world leaders with a handshake or an 'elbow bump' ... ?

Ardillaun

Spook_ie wrote: »

The major problem is I think the lack of concrete evidence being presented or reasons for clusters of the virus like in Northern Italy.

Given the Sky news figures

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-fatalities-in-italy-rise-to-631-with-10-000-cases-now-confirmed-11954715

And an absolute mortality rate of 6% or so there, you would expect someone in authority to actually quantify why the death rate is so high, is it age, Italian genetics, Italian health care in general, Italian health care being overwhelmed or what?

Although some of the stories from hospitals in Italy are alarming, I’m guessing that the biggest cause of a high rate like that, even in Lombardy, is still underdiagnosis of asymptomatic and mild cases. One way to assess this is the number of tests. Until Italy reaches South Korean levels of testing at least, it is probably missing thousands of cases and thus inflating its fatality rate.

Ellsbells1

Should nursing homes be reopened to the general public like they are suggesting? I can understand how distressing it is and will be for patients not having visitors but I also think it is important to protect our vulnerable. But staff will still be changing etc so surely they could bring it into the nursing homes too.

Ardillaun

Namaste everyone, more spiritual than shaking hands and much safer.