Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

wakka12

4 more deaths in Spain, total 17 now.

Gods Gift

sullivlo wrote: »

This too. A 200km cycle with a massive physical exertion is gonna leave my resources low.

And your arse sore.

Cilldara_2000

MD1990 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236629220308156423

Then surely St Patrick's Day parade's have to be cancelled.

12:23
The HSE has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people may fall ill here with coronavirus.

But it said that the modelling scenario is not completed yet.

Health officials said that the trends in Italy point towards large numbers of cases.

An update on confirmed cases here will be given by the National Public Health Emergency Team later.

To date, there have been 19 confirmed cases in the Republic of Ireland.

A study in the British Medical Journal last week projected that all COVID-19 cases will hit the NHS over a 9 week period.

It said that half of these cases would happen over a 3 week period, putting huge pressure on the health services.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120915-coronavirus-updates/

Bob24

Katie Dirty Copperhead wrote: »

Now I know you're talking out your hole, because you'd have missed all the original "red zone" villages in the provinces of Cremona and Veneto

Insulting posters is not nice. But doing it without checking facts ...

The 25 km radius around the line I described does include Cremona and most of Veneto.

I don’t understand this need to agressivly attack other posters just for the sake of it.

1641

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

I have heard that the one case unaccounted for apparently had travelled recently, just not from Italy.

Anyway I hope we see a bit more honesty in the reporting come Monday because there has undoubtedly been some developments since Friday.

Remember, what you read in the media here is the sanitised rubber stamped press release from the powers that be.

Truth is we will just have to ride this out and hope for the best, it cannot be contained. China especially does not take the measures they did lightly.

I'm amazed at people going on about missing holidays or the Patrick's Day celebrations, they will eventually realise that this has much wider repercussions.

This is not something that will last just a few weeks.

That is the most important point. The best that can be done is slow down the spread so that the health services can cope as well as possible. But, as time moves, there will most probably be major community impact (and undoubtedly major economic impact). Schools and colleges may close (how will working parents cope with school closures?).Cafes, shops, small businesses will be impacted, or closed down. The exams, even Leaving Cert, may have to be delayed. Maybe there will be quarantines. We are talking about a period of months.

It is important that the spread of the virus is contained.But it is also important that the whole country is not closed down for several months. Economic impact does not mean just big business - it means everyone and every family. This is important too.

Anyway, how long do we think people will go along with a close down? It may be all well for a few days but after that it would take a Chinese type intervention to keep a lockdown in force.


For what it is worth, I think the parades will be cancelled. But what about sports events, nightclubs, city centre pubs, bingo? Maybe some of these may have to go to but hopefully not (the knock on effects would be enormous). But it will never be an easy call on whether or when to shut things down. There is always a balance.


As for updates. I think once a day is reasonable. I can't see that a running commentary will do any good. Maybe there are confirmed cases since the last announcement (I don't know). But there are probably greater priorities than an immediate announcement - talking to family first, arranging isolation, etc. etc. If they all too late for one day's announcement then they will be included the next day. So what?

We should all be working on the basis that the virus is in circulation in our locality and maintain what precautions we can. We are in a state of semi-hysteria. Certainly some people are going to die - maybe some known to us individually. So some level of hysteria is understandable but it is hardly going to help.

Jimbob1977

Jimbob1977 wrote: »

Newstalk just had an interview with a newspaper's health correspondent.

The authorities are expecting a worst-case scenario of 40% of the population (1.9 million people) contracting the virus.

If that occurred, our health system would be overrun.

Whats the timeframe for infection? How many at any one time will be infected?

Blueshoe

Miike wrote: »

Statements will be made by the HSE via press release as they were made yesterday.

What's all this HSE Monday to Friday 9 to 5 vitriol? Is it supposed to be funny or clever or both?

Not meant to be funny or vitriol. The hse officers aren't hospital staff. They are office staff. I presume they work Monday to Friday 9-5 like many offices.

silverharp

not a good time to be iranian

https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1236624393595428864

ednwireland

sunday times today

human Guinea pigs in a london lab are to be given a form of the killer virus

ffs it's not Ebola the reason its spreads so quick is that it doesnt kill you. nothing like a click bait headline.

Cilldara_2000

Mr.S wrote: »

1.9m sick in Ireland? Forget about the parade, that's total breakdown of the country.

Nice knowing you all!

1.9m infected =/= 1.9m sick. I don't think anyone can dispute that there will be bad outcomes and tragedies for people and families directly from covid19 and those suffering from other medical issues but even so this is not going to be total breakdown of the country.

Cork Boy 53

Blueshoe wrote: »

By "suitable for a paper of it's standard" that it's not a rag?
I didn't even know the paper existed and when I saw the headline I dismissed it immediately as rubbish.

Is it time to hoard yet?
Any comments made by the hse or just Monday to Friday 9-5

I'm wouldn't be worried about myself at all. Parents would be older though with my father having diabetes.
Yet the reality is we have only got 19 confirmed cases so it's hard to see an outbreak growing that much and so quickly

More of the "sure it will be grand" mentality. Just read up about exponential growth including many posts on the previous versions of this thread and you might very soon be changing your opinion.

joeysoap

Italy has banned Italians from traveling. I don’t think they are allowed to ban other nationalities but we are allowed to ban Irish from traveling to/from Italy. I’ve said before we should have had a school/work ban of at least 7 days for travelers to Italy.

Worth noting as well how powerful the big business lobby is ie the difference in how the government is treating the Coronavirus to how they reacted to foot and mouth. The farmers wouldn’t have stood for it and they were right. But it’s too late now, the enemy isn’t at the gate, he’s inside.

jam_mac_jam

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Are the HSE trying to make the country explode? This will cause all-out panic.

Yeah better to ignore it and it will go away.
God forbid we panic

MadYaker

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

More of the sure "it will be grand" mentality.Just read up about exponential growth including many posts on the previous versions of this thread and you might very soon be changing your opinion.

Why read nonsense on boards? Ill wait for the numbers before I go out and spend 100 quid on bog roll

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deaths. Jaysus.

There'll hardly be a family untouched if that happens.

That's surely worst case scenario.

ACitizenErased

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Yeah better to ignore it and it will go away.
God forbid we panic

Panic has never helped anyone ever, don’t be ridiculous.

Blueshoe

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

More of the sure "it will be grand" mentality.Just read up about exponential growth including many posts on the previous versions of this thread and you might very soon be changing your opinion.

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

niallo27

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Yeah better to ignore it and it will go away.
God forbid we panic

Ah cmon, there is ignoring it to telling people half the population will get it.

Runaways

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Are the HSE trying to make the country explode? This will cause all-out panic.

Read the previous thread and you’ll see endless complaints HSE are keeping us in the dark

There Is no way they can win. Inform people? They’re causing panic!!
Withold information? They’re lying to us!!

Arrival

mloc123 wrote: »

I know the answer...

And so do I, I'm just not bothered answering silly leading questions because they're not constructive for such important discussions

Cilldara_2000

niallo27 wrote: »

Ah cmon, there is ignoring it to telling people half the population will get it.

Look on the positive side. That means half the population won't get it. Those are beautiful numbers.

jam_mac_jam

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Panic has never helped anyone ever, don’t be ridiculous.

Did i say it did?

The Hse needs to be honest regardless of whether it causes panic or not. And thats what they are doing above by saying that they cannot disagree with the projections.

ACitizenErased

Runaways wrote: »

Read the previous thread and you’ll see endless complaints HSE are keeping us in the dark

There Is no way they can win. Inform people? They’re causing panic!!
Withold information? They’re lying to us!!

Saying 1.9 million may get it isn’t informing people. Letting people know where cases are, exact numbers of those who are infected and places to avoid is informing people.

stephenjmcd

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

I'm of the same opinion.

That sunday business post article is at this current moment completely irresponsible to post. Would have expected better from a paper like that and not to cause widespread panic.

HSE cant dispute the figures because it's way too early yet

jam_mac_jam

niallo27 wrote: »

Ah cmon, there is ignoring it to telling people half the population will get it.

Maybe they are being honest

CinemaGuy45

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deadlines. Jaysus.

There'll hardly be a family untouched if that happens.

That's surely worst case scenario.

The HSE saying they can not dispute this and not long ago people were being called doom merchants on this serious of threads.

Nobody is enjoying this but what is coming out now is what I kind of expected from the very start.

A death rate from 2% to 3.4% depending on the health and age of the population.

It will not be all grand but we are not all doomed either.

What we have is a bad situation that is what it is accept it.

ACitizenErased

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

Maybe they are being honest

Can’t be honest when they’re not even telling people where the cases are.

the butcher

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120915-coronavirus-updates/

An economic hit is coming, we can decide as a nation whether it's quick and fast or slow and painful. This can come fast from a proactive lock down...otherwise we stare into a forced lock down like Italy after a complete healthcare collapse...which is most sane peoples eyes is far far worse of an impact.

We know it will cost hugely to business but there's no alternative. You can't expect to do zero of the measures China has implemented and expect us not to be hit by this. Shut downs of schools, workplaces, public transport, sporting and social events are inevitable.

We now need national solidarity on this. Cop on and stop pretending that its "just a flu" and stupid nonsense talk about "panic porn". It adds nothing to the discussion. I don't want this, I'd rather not talk about this, I'm not panicked but I'm concerned for the high risk categorises of PEOPLE. My family, my friends, my neighbours and work colleagues. I understand the need to avoid panic but I don't want to tip that kind of talk into complacency. Irish people are reasonable and will accept what is coming if our officials were transparent and honest.

If we can push this into April we can hope proactive sacrifices & warmer weather will beat this back which means we can look at the Summer with a good bit of hope. We need to help our frontline health workers as much as possible and that means adhering to the advice given so far but we want more than advice, we want more action at this stage.

Runaways

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Saying 1.9 million may get it isn’t informing people. Letting people know where cases are, exact numbers of those who are infected and places to avoid is informing people.

You didn’t read the article it seems. Modeling is not complete. And I’d agree with them releasing that number. They’ve been flooding media and airwaves with how to take sanitary precautions. Here’s stage two where they let us know what is going to happen if we each dont do our own personal responsibilities with regards to that.

That’s not creating panic. If anything it’s almost social engineering but it’s for the greater good as well as individual health

jam_mac_jam

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Can’t be honest when they’re not even telling people where the cases are.

I agree they need to give more location info. Just commenting on the particular point raised.

Popoutman

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

Double that number every 6 days. Now you see where the 1.0 million comes from in a few months. 5000 people infected at the end of April, of which 1000 will likely need hospitalisation and care, and 50 to 100 of those are dead.

Maybe you'd be better off looking to where things are *going* to be in a few weeks and plan accordingly.

It's low effort to plan accordingly for this. Short term pain for long term personal and societal gain as well.

Choosing to be oblivious is much much worse than choosing to plan.

one armed dwarf

Yeah the thing that causes me most stress/panic still is the public lack of willingness to accept the danger that's ahead and make manageable sacrifices to get us all through it.

I spent enough time in the 'panic porn' stage when it was sweeping through China, I'm much more calm about this thing now that it is here but it feels like there's still a load of denial out there. I don't know how you maintain cynicism about this thing with the trouble it's currently causing. It's that refusal to come to terms with reality that's scary as **** to me.

Cork Boy 53

MadYaker wrote: »

Why read nonsense on boards? Ill wait for the numbers before I go out and spend 100 quid on bog roll

What`s nonsense is the attitude of the head in the sand section of society that, for example, also think climate change is a scam and not really happening.

JanuarySnowstor

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

gozunda

Bigus wrote: »

How do you plan a disaster?

Or how do you plan for an unknown?

Its called contingency planning. Not something new ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingency_plan

iguana

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deadlines. Jaysus.

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

jam_mac_jam

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

The tone seems to be changing quite quickly

stephenjmcd

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

They aren't supporting it or disputing it.
They can't counter it at the moment as we're too early into it in this country to give accurate figures.

I'd give it another week to see how the figures stack up week on week to then give a projection

Jim_Hodge

Graces7 wrote: »

I hear you but do not agree with your last sentence or your earlier views . It could be seen as an insult to our intelligence although I am sure that is not your intention . We are all and each intelligent enough to discriminate between junk, hype and reality and not panic. It all rolls off us like water off a duck's back. Like you I am in the vulnerable class and old but I know what is real and what is fake as do most of us here.

It's hard to believe we're reading the same posts. I totally disagree with you on this. Posts here have shown huge variations from complacency to overhyping. It's not rolling off some backs and, judging by newspaper features yesterday and today, many older people have become quite unnecessarily scared.

It's questionable if any of us can really judge what's real or fake at this stage.

MadYaker

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

wakka12

6 wrote: »

1.9m with a 2% death rate is almost 40,000 deaths. Jaysus.

There'll hardly be a family untouched if that happens.

That's surely worst case scenario.

Its probably around 1% death rate though.

KWAG2019

the butcher wrote: »

...
We now need national solidarity on this... Irish people are reasonable and will accept what is coming if our officials were transparent and honest.

If we can push this into April we can hope proactive sacrifices & warmer weather will beat this back which means we can look at the Summer with a good bit of hope. We need to help our frontline health workers as much as possible and that means adhering to the advice given so far but we want more than advice, we want more action at this stage.

This is true but the problems are the deficit the HSE suffers from for decades of incompetence and cover up and stonewalling on other issues. The other problem is that national solidarity/ the green jersey has been cynically exploited in the past.

Getting past these will take real leadership.Which is very different from self congratulatory smugness about taking "hard" decisions which are actually cynical, ruthless decisions to favour one sector of society over the needs of all.

wakka12

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

How many times does this need to be said? Cases dropped in Hubei and other affected Chinese provinces because NOBODY went outside for two months, it is a completely incomparable situation to anywhere else on earth. I would say China was a lot more 'tuned in' as it started lockdowns with 500 cases and Italy started with about ten times that number

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Does anyone with a subscription want to post the text of this Sunday Business Post article?

https://www.businesspost.ie/health/irish-health-authorities-predict-19m-people-will-fall-ill-with-coronavirus-701e4838

I can't believe papers are still keeping articles like this behind paywalls.

[url]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1236476457494417408?s=20[/url]

The Health Authorities in America at least are regarding this with the seriousness it deserves, in spite of their government obstructing them from acting in the best interests of the public. Unfortunately neither our health service nor government are interested in stopping this, merely putting off the spread until the inevitable breakdown of society which will be caused by the health service being overwhelmed and people being unable to work due to illness.

owlbethere

one armed dwarf wrote: »

Yeah the thing that causes me most stress/panic still is the public lack of willingness to accept the danger that's ahead and make manageable sacrifices to get us all through it.

I spent enough time in the 'panic porn' stage when it was sweeping through China, I'm much more calm about this thing now that it is here but it feels like there's still a load of denial out there. I don't know how you maintain cynicism about this thing with the trouble it's currently causing. It's that refusal to come to terms with reality that's scary as **** to me.

We have the WHO recommending social distancing. The late late show had a mental health person telling us to go and mingle.

khalessi

Blueshoe wrote: »

By "suitable for a paper of it's standard" that it's not a rag?
I didn't even know the paper existed and when I saw the headline I dismissed it immediately as rubbish.

Is it time to hoard yet?
Any comments made by the hse or just Monday to Friday 9-5

I'm wouldn't be worried about myself at all. Parents would be older though with my father having diabetes.
Yet the reality is we have only got 19 confirmed cases so it's hard to see an outbreak growing that much and so quickly

That's probably what they thought in Italy a few weeks ago . I would rather err on the side of caution and stamp this out in the earlier stages before it gets out of hand.

otnomart

Countries that are behind in the spread have already plenty of info to try and contain:

We know how the virus spread, hence: hand washing, keep safety distance, avoid handshaking
Spread took place in hospitals (see Codogno and Creil)
and in large gatherings (see Mulhouse)
From Italy's daily updates, we know that the majority of victims are above a certain age and with comorbidities
Therefore Italian Gov (already last week) recommended those over 75 - and those over 65 with pathologies - not to go out
We also know percentage of patients who require intensive care

niallo27

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

jam_mac_jam

khalessi wrote: »

That's probably what they thought in Italy a few weeks . I would rather err on the side of caution and stamp this out in the earlier stages before it gets out of hand.

Exactly the risks of being over cautious rather then doing nothing are much less. Yes it will cause economic hardship but may reduce a lot more in the long run.

Not sure why we think what is happening in Italy will not happen here.

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

A death rate from 2% to 3.4% depending on the health and age of the population

Is that correct? According to WHO figures it ranges from 0.2% to 14% depending on health and age. The actual average is up for grabs after that, depending on response, availability of infrastructure etc.