Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Brianmwalker

iguana wrote: »

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

Active cases shouldn't be used in your mortality calculation. They might die yet. S Korea has 50 deaths and 130 recovered.

Popoutman

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

many older people have become quite unnecessarily scared.

It's questionable if any of us can really judge what's real or fake at this stage.

Known figures from Italy are that >80s are dying at a rate of about 1 in 6. That's literally russian roulette odds.

It's not unreasonable to be scared of that, when there's pretty much no personal control over the infection by and progression of the virus.

The elderly should be stocking up on meds (suggestions are for >1 months's supply), stocking up on basic necessary foodstuffs, avoiding contact with the possibly infected.

The hardest part of that will be to be avoiding contact with children who appear to be able to carry the virus without appearing any worse than normal kiddy dribbly noses. So, we're very likely to have infected kids with low symptoms, meeting granny and effectively killing her with transmission. That's not hyperbole, that's not scaremongering, that's just a perfectly possible vector for transmission.

Those caring for the over 80s or other elderly people, please ensure they have plans and provisions in place for self-isolation for more than a few days.

ChikiChiki

I have been very pessimistic throughout this after analysing the data from other countries. It is not going to be a good outcome and that is something we must accept.

But I feel that Sunday Business Post headline is irresponsible and over the top.

Its literally going from 0-100 on causing panic. There is no way the HSE can be supporting that with their strategy so far.

wakka12

iguana wrote: »

Looking at Korea which probably has the most accurate numbers, the mortality rate is .6% so far. On the Diamond Princess the acquisition rate was less than 20% and the mortality rate so far is 1% and that's with an older age demographic than usual. So say maybe 900,000 infected and 4,000 - 5,000 fatalities. And, this is cold, but a reasonable number of those people will have underlying conditions that may have caused them to die at some point this year anyway. It's still really, really shît, don't get me wrong. And many people who may die, hundreds, maybe thousands would probably have had years and years of decent life ahead of them. But I really, really don't think we'll see 10s of 1,000s of fatalities. This is really serious, really bad, really tragic for a lot of people but I honestly don't think we'll see the worst case scenarios happening here.

There are still dozens of passengers on that ship in a serious condition.Yes it is skewed upwards by age but also in South Korea's the numbers are skewed downnwards. Around 40% of the South Korean cases are from the cult of which around half of the members are in their 20's

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

iguana

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Active cases shouldn't be used in your mortality calculation. They might die yet. S Korea has 50 deaths and 130 recovered.

I'd normally agree but they also only have 36 cases in serious/critical condition. The vast, vast majority of cases in Korea seem to be mild-moderate and that's because they are diagnosing more cases than anywhere else.

wadacrack

niallo27 wrote: »

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

Personally I'd be very weary of a vaccine. We obviously would not know the long term effects of that and highly likely it is rushed. Better treatment and just greater management of severe cases . The weather/season may help . Might also get lucky if it mutates to a weaker strain. We are bound to improve our immunity to this but hard to know how quickly this can happen

Ficheall

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Mic 1972

Bob24 wrote: »

They passed 50 cases a while ago. And part of my criticism has always been that that they failed to detect the outbreak early enough. When they counted 50 they probably had a lot more.

So if size/population is your criteria, China should not have locked down Hubei province which is even more populated?

Lombardy + Veneto = 15 milion people
You are talking about locking down 15 million people because of an initial outbreak of about 200
It's the same as locking up our entire nation when we hit 50 cases. It was never going to happen
At least they cancelled Carnival in Venice, we are not even cancelling the parades

sullivlo

niallo27 wrote: »

If we can spread this out over a year, we will surely have a vaccine by then which would bring the deaths down by huge numbers.

The nature of the virus, and subsequent immune response it illicits in patients, is complex. It appears to be a biphasic virus, which means that it can lie dormant in the body without being detected. Furthermore, the immune response activated is similar to that of the 2002 SARS spread, and no vaccine has been produced/effective against this.

ChikiChiki

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The HSE supporting the Business post article must mean there's more cases to be announced later. Reading between the lines I expect quite a few today

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

pjohnson

Its pretty pointless tryna compare any countries numbers given how passive the reaction has been to doing anything to limit the spread.

Ten people dead after hotel hosting quarantined patients collapses in eastern China.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0308/1120907-china-virus-hotel-collapse/

otnomart

Nextstrain now has data from the Netherlands
"Some are close to the Italian samples, but there are 2 distinct clusters, those could be community transmission, but also they could be connected with France or Germany but we don't have their data yet"

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

sullivlo

Ficheall wrote: »

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Most people who are hit hard by the virus are beyond their reproductive prime.

Clarence Boddiker

How things change

un5byh7sqpd2x0

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

Brianmwalker

iguana wrote: »

I'd normally agree but they also only have 36 cases in serious/critical condition. The vast, vast majority of cases in Korea seem to be mild-moderate and that's because they are diagnosing more cases than anywhere else.

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

is_that_so

Ficheall wrote: »

There is speculation with some theoretical support that the virus may leave survivors with damage to, for example, the testes. It was apparently too soon to confirm whether the virus thus had any effect on fertility, but we must be coming up on a time when it will be possible to test early survivors?

Speculation and theoretical support are anathema to each other. One does not support the other as neither inhabits the realm of facts.

khalessi

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lombardy + Veneto = 15 milion people
You are talking about locking down 15 million people because of an initial outbreak of about 200
It's the same as locking up our entire nation when we hit 50 cases. It was never going to happen
At least they cancelled Carnival in Venice, we are not even cancelling the parades

It should though if it prevents the widespread infection of 40% of population. Nip it in the bud early and less of a human hit, economic hit and less of a hit on our overwhelmed health system.

silverharp

noticing people are cleaning stuff more at the gym ,and lots of announcements about doing it.

Rob A. Bank

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 8 March 2020



Click on the graph in this link for a larger image.

The number of daily cases in Europe shows slightly smaller rise today but the trend remains upwards.

:-(

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

Why are they not recommending Italy as a whole? Tip-toeing around the situation again.

MadYaker

Katie Dirty Copperhead wrote: »

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

Unfortunately many people in this thread are too dumb to tell the difference.

wakka12

Clarence Boddiker wrote: »

How things change

I still cant believe that was the official stance of the HSE for so long while Ireland had open borders to places wracking up thousands of cases daily. Like how could it possibly remain low under those circumstances? And people on here were called scare mongers to say it sounded like bs

05eaftqbrs9jlh

wadacrack wrote: »

Personally I'd be very weary of a vaccine. We obviously would not know the long term effects of that and highly likely it is rushed. Better treatment and just greater management of severe cases . The weather/season may help . Might also get lucky if it mutates to a weaker strain. We are bound to improve our immunity to this but hard to know how quickly this can happen

Why are we bound to improve our immunity? Why would it mutate to a weaker strain? If you're willing to speculate one way you can surely imagine a situation where (as scientists have predicted, I can find you links if you want) in the year or years that they will be researching the vaccine, our immune systems will be compromised by infection, our lungs will be damaged by it and it could also mutate to a stronger variation of the virus.

The fact is that 1 in 5 show severe symptoms. We don't have the healthcare capacity to care for these people.

Christy42

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 8 March 2020



Click on the graph in this link for a larger image.

The number of daily cases show s slightly smaller rise today but the trend remains upwards.

:-(

Not enough colours! I thought something terrible had happened in Lithuania for a second.

gozunda

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Good man Jim Ó Callaghan (FF) who is suggesting screw government formation for now on TWIP. He also wants a flight ban. Increasingly looks like Leo and the crew have gone solo on this Paddy's day nonsense.

He seems to have a better handle on this than his own party leader.

Leo and friends are banking on having their last Paddy's Day fling flying around the world - all expenses paid - courtesy of good selves.

You couldn't be cancelling Paddys Day on the poor kids now would you?

Tánaiste and Minister Simon Coveney is to lead a delegation to New York for St Patrick’s Day. 

Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe is travelling to Paris and Brussels this year.

Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan is off to Berlin, while Minister for Defence Paul Kehoe is travelling to Savannah in the Southern States.

Agriculture Minister Michael Creed will visit Chicago.

Ministers Heather Humphreys will travel to Sacramento in California.

Culture Minister Josepha Madigan is going to London.

Minister for Rural and Community Development, Michael Ring is heading to Boston.

The Attorney General Seamus Wolfewill travel to New York and surrounding areas.

Minister for Education Joe McHughwas due to travel to Canada but made the decision at the weekend to stay home to deal with the Covid-19 situation.

Minister for Health Simon Harris is also remaining in Ireland. 

https://www.thejournal.ie/st-patricks-day-trips-taoiseach-ministers-5024433-Mar2020/

Cilldara_2000

MadYaker wrote: »

Unfortunately many people in this thread are too dumb to tell the difference.

As well as the SBP it would appear. Sensationalist click-bait from a supposedly quality broadsheet.

Achasanai

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

I'm not sure about ourselves being more 'turned on' to the situation. China were also 'free' to enact more draconian measures than we will ever be able to (legally). Having said that, I agree, 1.9 million is surely the absolute worst case scenario.

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

I can't believe papers are still keeping articles like this behind paywalls.

Why would they make it available for free? You don't have to pay the subscription, just buy the actual paper.

is_that_so

silverharp wrote: »

noticing people are cleaning stuff more at the gym ,and lots of announcements about doing it.

Yep, big yellow HSE signs up and paper in all the containers.

Sir Oxman

whiskeyman wrote: »

Claims are from Irish health authority modelling figures.
It's a sombre read.

Modelling they have seen suggests a 30% infection rate best case, while 50% worst case.

Inside the paper one of the headlines is '... Over 80s most likely to perish'.

Not sure choice of words suitable for a paper of it's standard.

Just now the headline on Radio 1 news - the HSE said it cannot dispute the report in the SBP though modelling is not complete.

Mic 1972

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

it's a good question, there doesn't seem to be a clear answer to this
Some people have mild symptoms all along, others start mild and develop into critical, people have died 4-5 days after developing critical issues, others have recovered from that after 2 weeks.
Ther was a link on the old thread to a Canadian doctor who explained all of this, i can't find it anymore

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Why are they not recommending Italy as a whole? Tip-toeing around the situation again.

Their on website hasn't updated yet either

Sleeper12

Deleted User wrote:

Is that correct? According to WHO figures it ranges from 0.2% to 14% depending on health and age. The actual average is up for grabs after that, depending on response, availability of infrastructure etc.

WHO says death rate is 3.4 percent but they say that it could be lower. They believe that there are a lot of young people who have /had to virus with symptoms of less than a common cold. These young people haven't been tested so they aren't part of the official figures. 3.4 percent death rate of confirmed cases

Away With The Fairies

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

We really are ****ed. No telling the kid off.

iguana

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Does it start mild and get worse or does it quick get to the maximum stage? Genuine question, seems to be taking a long time for recoveries.

The virus lingers in the body for a long time during recovery. So even when people have stopped being symptomatic and feel recovered, they still have a viral load that shows up in tests, sometimes for weeks. This means that recovery rates lag an awful lot in the first few weeks/months of an outbreak. The good news however is, that when a virus lingers like this it usually means a person's antibodies become very strong and is an indication of a long period of immunity to follow.

ACitizenErased

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Their on website hasn't updated yet either

The amount of incompetence is incredible. Do not let people from Italy in for 2/3 weeks and see how it goes, how hard is it like?

noodler

Katie Dirty Copperhead wrote: »

They’re not supporting it, they’re currently unable to dispute it

The way I read it, it was leaked from Gov, SBP queried HSE and HSE "don't dispute".

It's not like SBP asked them to confirm a randomer's analysis.

Jim_Hodge

Popoutman wrote: »

Known figures from Italy are that >80s are dying at a rate of about 1 in 6. That's literally russian roulette odds.

It's not unreasonable to be scared of that, when there's pretty much no personal control over the infection ...

So, you agree with all the rest of the post, just not the edited portion?


The point was that we are getting both extremes here in equal measure, so that poster could not state that we are all capable of seeing the reality of the situation.

If this goes on for the months some are projecting, these threads will become some cluster****.

I think I'll pass until we have a proper picture of where we're heading.

bekker

Resolved cases South Korea 29.76% deaths (dead 50, recovered 116).

Resolved cases 2.3% of confirmed cases.

Number tested not reliable indicator, test only gives positive when virus shedding is present in sufficient quantities, testing before that stage will be negative.


Criteria for applying tests differ between countries so gross comparisons are unreliable.

There is some indication that sputum testing is more sensitive than throat swabs, and in China they needed CT scans to detect in some cases.

While there is some indication of test indication of false recovery and apparent reinfection so far this appears to be statistically insignificant.

Rob A. Bank

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

As well as the SBP it would appear. Sensationalist click-bait from a supposedly quality broadsheet.

Yeaa... shoot the messenger... always a good tactic !

SusanC10

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

DFA website not updated yet. Still advising against travel to 4 areas.

Graces7

sullivlo wrote: »

I am worried about covid19.

It might seem like I am being overly dramatic in my actions. But I cannot afford for my family to get sick, so I want to be proactive in trying to reduce my risk of catching it.

You are an inspiration, sullivio. Thank you.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/dlglsh/status/1236233743674888193

Had to scrub me teeth and swish Domestos around me gob after watching that.

ChikiChiki

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236635039963721729?s=19

Don't advise. Give a directive if they do, they wont be allowed back, or even criminal charges and fines if they disobey. That will require the passing of emergency laws of course.

Its coming to the point where strong arming is needed to limit the damage.

Advise is too weak a word given the risk level I feel. Clear language and communication vital right now.

Sleeper12

ChikiChiki wrote:

Apologies if I have missed it but where are they supporting it?

The HSE has said that they can't dispute the claims. They haven't said that they support it

Popoutman

Achasanai wrote: »

Having said that, I agree, 1.9 million is surely the absolute worst case scenario.

A much more important question is "When will we hit 1.9 million" not "if". Unless we take strong measures ASAP, we are going to get a nice short very sharp peak of cases and we're going to collapse.

If we're staying oblivious to the spread, we'll have that 1.9 million by mid-summer. If we take action, we might hit 1.9 million by the New Year. I know which scenario I'd prefer to be in.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Blueshoe wrote: »

How many cases do we have? 19 at present.
Il stick to the current reality and leave the panic to those who enjoy it

Except that's not the current reality at all.