Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

Wait to see tomorrow's news reports.

Rob A. Bank

1641 wrote: »

And we still have this level of unadulterated bull.


Is there one small country in the world that isn't envious of the amount of promotion that this country gets around the world on St. Patrick's day? Any government in power (left, right, centre, nationalist, unionist, green or whatever) would and should support this. Sadly the amount of promotion this year will be limited. But it doesn't stop the childish whinging.

And if one of our guys infects and possibly kills another head of state ?

That will be a really fabulous 'promotion' for the country.

Politicians are not immune to this disease (google Iran)

(genetic analysis can trace the pathway of spread of the virus)

Pacing Mule

Blueshoe wrote: »

Yes it is. There are currently 19 confirmed cases.
Do you know something we don't?

Gonna say yes they do.

There were multiple cases found yesterday but somehow we only had 1 extra case announced yesterday evening. I'm not an alarmist or sensationalist whatsoever but this under reporting is frustrating the proverbials off me now because all it does is encourages the actual sensationalists to make it so much worse when they get to say I told ya so and exaggerate it on the other side.

Popoutman

Blueshoe wrote: »

You are picking out worst possible case as a definite.

If it's doubling every 10 days (not backed up by the figures, but we'll give you the benefit of the doubt).
That puts things as:

• 40 cases March 18
• 80 cases March 28
• 160 cases April 7th
• 320 cases April 17th
• 640 cases April 27th
• 1,280 cases May 7th
• 2,560 cases May 17th
• 51,200 cases May 27th
• 102,400 cases June 8th
• 204,800 cases June 18th
• 409,600 cases June 28th
• 819,200 cases July 8th
• 1,638,400 cases July 18th.

It's still not good no matter what way you look at it. I'm not seeing any current reason that prevents the transmission rate from staying at the currently-known rate and not tapering off until a significant portion of the population is infected.

Did you have any rational and realistic reasons why you think things are going to be better than I had suggested above?

DrumSteve

thebaz wrote: »

wonder will they fast track the supposed Israel cure ??

Dunno if I'm more wary of the virus or a fast tracked vaccine.

normanoffside

Loughc wrote: »

I imagine they’ll be cancelled as Milan is now in the red zone in Italy.

Go to the website of Milan Bergamo Airport and there is a video that pops up saying business as usual.
They are using the hashtag #keeponflying

https://www.milanbergamoairport.it/en/

1641

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Except that's not the current reality at all.

I think we should nominate Treasure Grumpy Tie as the official spokesperson for "Reality".
Any seconders?

Runaways

McClunkey in the radio now

‘This Is going to affect our society and economy and way of life in a whole new way.’
Compares it To the Spanish flu our civil war and Wall Street crash all at once.

wakka12

Strazdas wrote: »

That headline is clearly extremely misleading. Given how wildly unpredictable viruses are, the real figure could be anywhere between 190 people and 1.9m (the latter number seems scarcely credible given health awareness, modern hygiene and modern medicine).

If it was so wildly unpredictable the HSE would say they can argue with the prediction. But they said they cant

You seem insistent on the idea that a tiny percent of people will ever contract it based on the fact that so far only a tiny number have contracted it. I would call that misleading

stephenjmcd

Treasure Grumpy Tie wrote: »

Wait to see tomorrow's news reports.

Well all we can do is wait until those figures are announced.
Until then the official number is 19 and everything else unless backed up by posting a source is rumor

odyssey06

bennyl10 wrote: »

The SBP article is sensationalism though. It’s the same as reading the English and WHO worse case scenario advice and staying “70% of the population are going to be infected”. It’s sensationalism and scaremongering
It’s a worst case scenario, not backed up currently by actual graphs/case numbers.
Worse case scenario, like this, should only happen is we all start coughing on each other.
Prepare for the worst, but it won’t and shouldn’t get anywhere near that

It's a projection of future cases, of course it's far higher than current case numbers. No one should be looking at current case numbers and assuming it static.

We've seen the UK ones, if you're going to challenge them please provide an alternative.
What's the HSE projection for scenarios for number of cases in Ireland over the next three months ranging from expected to worst case?

DrumSteve

I do wonder whether the reason for the hands off approach is that governments in the West need this to get bad to get the population to buy in to the Chinese approach.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Runaways wrote: »

McClunkey in the radio now

‘This Is going to affect our society and economy and way of life in a whole new way.’
Compares it To the Spanish flu our civil war and Wall Street crash all at once.

"I had predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario... (based off what the trajectory was two weeks ago)
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

WHO official Tarik Jasarevic on now saying that those who get sick need to be detected, tested and provided with medical care. Doesn't seem in conjunction with the HSE sending contracts of CUH confirmed case back to work. Saying we need the government to work towards this. I wonder if he knows about the current political situation here.

stephenjmcd

DFA Updated
https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/a-z-list-of-countries/italy/

Harry Palmr

Anyone listening to RTE radio news?

They have a someone in the studio talking of 20,000 minimum to 120,000 maximum deaths depending on rates of infection (up to 80%) and fatality rate (mentioned up to 4%)

iguana

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

You are speculating... the virus is new to science since the start of this year.

NO ONE knows the long term effect of this virus on antibodies or immunity

That's why I said 'usually' and 'indication.' While we don't know anything for a fact we can extrapolate a likely outcome based on similarities to other viruses. There is a huge amount of fear-mongering going on. The reality is that this is genuinely really, really bad. It needs to be taken seriously. People need to be prepared to make real mid-term changes to their lives in order to protect themselves and others. But it's not the black death. Most people get better and are likely to stay better.

RandomName2

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario...
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

FFS annually we would have between 250-500 flu deaths in Ireland.

If we had 30,000 flu deaths annually everyone in Ireland would be dead within about two decades.

embraer170

MadYaker wrote: »

1.9 million is surely a worst case scenario. Even in China they've only had 80,000 so far and it seems to be slowing down there now. We've been more turned on to this from the start so not sure how we could end up with 1.9 million cases in Ireland alone?? Id like to see the modelling.

Have you seen the measures China has taken?

tobefrank321

Loughc wrote: »

I imagine they’ll be cancelled as Milan is now in the red zone in Italy.

If they aren't its madness. Nothing to stop anyone trying to escape lockdown jumping on those flights to here. And impossible to trace their interactions once here.

gozunda

1641 wrote: »

And we still have this level of unadulterated bull.Is there one small country in the world that isn't envious of the amount of promotion that this country gets around the world on St. Patrick's day? Any government in power (left, right, centre, nationalist, unionist, green or whatever) would and should support this. Sadly the amount of promotion this year will be limited. But it doesn't stop the childish whinging.

Is that you Leo?

Point out one thing in that comment which was inaccurate.

Yeah but your reply is 'unadulterated bull' is right. 'Envious' me backside and absolutely nothing to do with my comment.

So you reckon the boys should be rocking all over the joint whilst we have a major national emergency ongoing? Fair enough. Good to know where you stand on these issues ..

stephenjmcd

RandomName2 wrote: »

FFS annually we would have between 250-500 flu deaths in Ireland.

If we had 30,000 flu deaths annually everyone in Ireland would be dead within about two decades.

No idea when they keep getting McConkey on, he seems to pull different figures out every time he's on radio or tv

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No idea when they keep getting McConkey on, he seems to pull different figures out every time he's on radio or tv

He's saying that we have that many deaths in Ireland per year. He's saying that we could have 80-100,000 this year because of this virus.

Harry Palmr

I doubt McConkey mentioned 30k a year flu deaths, someone misheard or mistyped.

is_that_so

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Anyone listening to RTE radio news?

They have a someone in the studio talking of 20,000 minimum to 120,000 maximum deaths depending on rates of infection (up to 80%) and fatality rate (mentioned up to 4%)

That's Professor McConkey - he's had the number floating out there for a while.

stephenjmcd

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.


He's saying that we have that many deaths in Ireland per year. He's saying that we could have 80-100,000 this year because of this virus.

Paul Reid couldn't run a county council properly never mind the HSE

givyjoe

Apologies if someone has already posted, I suppose the HSE are just "scaremongering" https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236629220308156423?s=19

Rob A. Bank

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario...
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

The normal flu does indeed kill a lot of people... spread out over the whole flu season.

The BIG problem with Covid-19 is that the sick will all arrive at once over a short period of time... overwhelming the health service.

Anything that will slow the spread is valuable.

Runaways

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I doubt McConkey mentioned 30k a year flu deaths, someone misheard or mistyped.

He was talking about Ireland’s figures specifically. though

Stop with the hysteria

Gods Gift

Fookers puffing away on their vaps outside pubs and cafes. Polluting half the street here.

Would that transmit the virus??

amadangomor

thebaz wrote: »

wonder will they fast track the supposed Israel cure ??

That was Israeli propaganda. There are numerous other groups working on it- up to 20 I've heard that have a vaccine at the same stage. Could take up to a year for a vaccine to complete medical trials

otnomart

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If they aren't its madness. Nothing to stop anyone trying to escape lockdown jumping on those flights to here. And impossible to trace their interactions once here.

Do you think that anyone in Europe would decide to "escape" to Ireland today, knowing that it has: cases already in two digits, direct flights to the US and the UK (which both also have cases); shortage of hospital beds even outside of a crisis like this ?

stephenjmcd

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.


He's saying that we have that many deaths in Ireland per year. He's saying that we could have 80-100,000 this year because of this virus.

Sorry i thought someone said that he said we have that many from the flu every year

is_that_so

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I doubt McConkey mentioned 30k a year flu deaths, someone misheard or mistyped.

20K. He's mentioned here, where he stands over that claim.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-are-in-coronavirus-land-now-and-all-is-changed-utterly-1.4195222

Duggie2012

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If they aren't its madness. Nothing to stop anyone trying to escape lockdown jumping on those flights to here. And impossible to trace their interactions once here.

I thought it said on the news that the airport in milan was still operating. How much i don't know.

ArchXStanton

megabomberman wrote: »

I am still annoyed by the fact that they decided to follow 'calm the public' playbook when they could see our neighbouring countries, only a week ahead were moving to the priming the public for disaster playbook. It confuses people and totally undermines their perceived competence.

The HSE seem to to forget they work for us, it's been noted that governments that engage with the public are having a bit more success with this virus

The Vietnamese woman who lied about being in Italy will get 5-12 years if anyone she directly spread it to dies.

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I had predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario... (based off what the trajectory was two weeks ago)
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

Eh? 30,000 deaths from flu in a season in Ireland? Thought it was 200 to 500 according to the HSE?

Strazdas

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.


He's saying that we have that many deaths in Ireland per year. He's saying that we could have 80-100,000 this year because of this virus.

He did add he thinks the St Patricks Festival should go ahead : he says he thinks outdoor events pose much less of a risk and indoor venues like the 3 Arena are far more problematic.

noodler

givyjoe wrote: »

Apologies if someone has already posted, I suppose the HSE are just "scaremongering" https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236629220308156423?s=19

Its just the worst case.

I'd say even the limited actions to date in terms of advice, school closures etc have negated that particular number.

Call Me Jimmy

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I have seen zero traits of 'panic' in anyone I've met/spoken to etc
granted, that's just in my social movements. Indeed, without a second thought myself and an interviewer the other day nodded in greeting rather than auto-handshaking.

I haven't seen any reports of bog roll off the shelves either or any panicky empty shelves to be honest.
Where are people getting the idea that Irish people are panicked?
I've read a few posts from a very few posters here riddled with anxiety to begin with to which I'd advise self-isolate yourself from these threads (even though 95% of the posts are non-alarmist)

It's been repeated about anyone who thinks this is a serious problem since it got within striking distance of Ireland. Before that you were just a conspiracy theorist and now you're literally said to be masturbating to the developments. None of this smut about health care systems 'not being ready', Dr Mike Ryan. We have to listen to the experts. Not that expert, or that one, no those are just doom-merchant epidemiologists.

We're also said to be panicking the public but at the same time told everyone out in the real world doesn't care. Now the HSE and RTE are getting involved in the drama too.

MadYaker

embraer170 wrote: »

Have you seen the measures China has taken?

Yeah after they allowed the virus to spread freely for most of december. They had 1000s of cases before they did anything just like Iran (and italy to a lesser extent) so they had no choice but to take draconian measures. I don't think the same thing has happened here.

Bob24

Deleted User wrote: »

Eh? 30,000 deaths from flu in a season in Ireland? Thought it was 200 to 500 according to the HSE?

Yes that is correct: https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

stephenjmcd

Strazdas wrote: »

He did add he thinks the St Patricks Festival should go ahead : he says he thinks outdoor events pose much less of a risk and indoor venues like the 3 Arena are far more problematic.

To be fair i could see how someone might think that, space isn't as enclosed, compared to say 10k in a tight space in the 3Arena.

But St.Patrick's day in different altogether, it's outdoors but large numbers very close together

bennyl10

Also of that 1.9million(worst case protections) 1.5million(based on who) will be mild and WILL NOT require any kind of hospital treatment.

Wash hands, follow instruction, isolate if sick

odyssey06

There's approx 30,000 deaths per year in Ireland from all causes.
https://www.thejournal.ie/death-birth-registrations-ireland-4850766-Oct2019/

I'm sure McConkey either mis-spoke or was mis-reported. He was using 30,000 as the figure to show that this virus alone has the potential to cause or more number than our TOTAL number of deaths.

Harry Palmr

is_that_so wrote: »

20K. He's mentioned here, where he stands over that claim.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/we-are-in-coronavirus-land-now-and-all-is-changed-utterly-1.4195222

What? Where? 100 people died of winter flu so far. That's what I referred to - standard flu

is_that_so

Harry Palmr wrote: »

What? Where? 100 people died of winter flu so far. That's what I referred to - standard flu

Ok, but he's talking about COVID-19.

Strazdas

stephenjmcd wrote: »

To be fair i could see how someone might think that, space isn't as enclosed, compared to say 10k in a tight space in the 3Arena

Indeed, and if standing on Dame Street or Patrick Street in the open air is "unsafe", then surely the entire country is unsafe.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

RandomName2 wrote: »

Is this the:

Thread: TERRORIST ATTACK HAS HAPPENED IN X
Poster: Oh you just wet yourself every time there's a terrorist attack, don't you?

Kind of shíte we are in for now?

If people are being drama queens, others will point it out. It’s a messageboard; you’re going to come up against views you don’t like or agree with.

Harry Palmr

is_that_so wrote: »

Ok, but he's talking about COVID-19.

Right, we are on the same page now - but someone else above on the previous page (by now) was clearly misquoting. That's what I responded to.