Coronavirus

JoannieG

It would appear that few incoming travellers are being called. It would also appear to be a waste of time as the majority will give a mobile number and there's no way of knowing where they actually are if they are called.

echo beach

ednwireland wrote: »

the thing is the arcgis map is only showing 17/11/2020 to 30/11/2020

and is now over a week out of date for anyone to say that meaningful information is being provided so people can decide on the risk of doing something. this is only updated every 2 weeks so im looking at that and think SW Donegal aint so bad (it may or may not be with the numbers in the last 7 days)

All the data is historic. The transmission of the virus in a particular area today won’t show up as cases for at least 7 - 14 days. Nobody can tell you what the position is today. The figures show trends, up or down, over a period of time.

Unfortunately the trend in Donegal is at best static at a high level. It varies a little from week to week in the different electoral areas but these aren’t self contained islands. People are moving from one to another for school and work and now also for shopping and leisure.

When you shop in SW Donegal compared to Letterkenny, the important risk factors are how many people you interact with, how close you are to them and how long you spend in their company. Two hours in a crowded space in an area with a low incidence is far more risky than half an hour in a near empty space in an area with a high incidence.

When trying to judge what level of risk you are comfortable with the question is, how important is this activity to me? We all want some distraction at this point. For some people it is shopping, for some it is attending religious services, for some it is eating out. If you choose to do one of these, observing all the recommended precautions, then do you really need to do the others as well? Choose wisely and stay local but assume the virus is everywhere rather than using immediately out of date and incomplete figures to guess the best place to go.

echo beach

echo beach wrote: »

All the data is historic. The transmission of the virus in a particular area today won’t show up as cases for at least 7 - 14 days. Nobody can tell you what the position is today. The figures show trends, up or down, over a period of time.

Unfortunately the trend in Donegal is at best static at a high level. It varies a little from week to week in the different electoral areas but these aren’t self contained islands. People are moving from one to another for school and work and now also for shopping and leisure.

When you shop in SW Donegal compared to Letterkenny, the important risk factors are how many people you interact with, how close you are to them and how long you spend in their company. Two hours in a crowded space in an area with a low incidence is far more risky than half an hour in a near empty space in an area with a high incidence.

When trying to judge what level of risk you are comfortable with the question is, how important is this activity to me? We all want some distraction at this point. For some people it is shopping, for some it is attending religious services, for some it is eating out. If you choose to do one of these, observing all the recommended precautions, then do you really need to do the others as well? Choose wisely and stay local but assume the virus is everywhere rather than using immediately out of date and incomplete figures to guess the best place to go.

Sound advice.

Of concern however, is the report (Source: Independent, Catherine Fegan), that Healthcare workers, schoolchildren, and students are among the groups who have had the highest number of Covid-19 infections.

Since most of us normally have daily contact with at least one of those groups, that begs a whole raft of questions re. transmission. ...

echo beach

Deleted User wrote: »

Of concern however, is the report (Source: Independent, Catherine Fegan), that Healthcare workers, schoolchildren, and students are among the groups who have had the highest number of Covid-19 infections.

Since most of us normally have daily contact with at least one of those groups, that begs a whole raft of questions re. transmission. ...

It is a concern but as those are the groups that have most contact with other people it is what might be expected. It doesn’t explain why Donegal, which if anything has fewer healthcare workers, schoolchildren and students
then other counties, has such high rates of infection.

echo beach

echo beach wrote: »

It is a concern but as those are the groups that have most contact with other people it is what might be expected. It doesn’t explain why Donegal, which if anything has fewer healthcare workers, schoolchildren and students
then other counties, has such high rates of infection.

Theres no prizes for guessing how that happened...

ednwireland

latest 14 day per 100,000 LEA rates
Donegal 67.9 Pop 26,492
Glenties 62.7 Pop 23,919
lifford stranorlar 200.9 Pop 25,889
letterkenny 322.2 Pop 29,791
milford 174.2 Pop 13,771
Buncrana 228 Pop 22,366
carndonagh 518.7 Pop 16,964

national 80.2

24/11 to 07/12

admittedly i did assume that they were roughly the same but milford and carndonagh are significantly smaller populations

the map tells all !



Highest NI rates from here
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/coronavirus-tracker-map-ireland-how-many-cases-are-there-in-your-area-1049457.html

Electoral area/
NI postcode area County Cases 14-day incidence rate
Ballymena (BT42) Antrim 232 639
Cookstown (BT80) Tyrone 145 592
Castlederg (BT81) Tyrone 46 585
Ballymena (BT43) Antrim 129 556
Carndonagh Donegal 88 519
Derry – Waterside (BT47) Derry 293 477
Belfast – Harbour (BT3) Antrim 4 471
Enniskillen (BT74) Fermanagh 76 433
Ballygawley (BT70) Tyrone 92 424

muffler

The biggest eyebrow raiser is the Carndonagh EA. The number of new cases has almost doubled in the last 7 days which must bring it to the top of the pile nationally.

Letterkenny and Stranorlar - Lifford are quite densely populated areas and with the latter's proximity to the border you would expect these areas to have the highest figures. Maybe even the Buncrana EA would be expected to be "highish" also given the population and it's border with Derry.

So whats going on in North Inishowen?

Cabletiesfix

muffler wrote: »

The biggest eyebrow raiser is the Carndonagh EA. The number of new cases has almost doubled in the last 7 days which must bring it to the top of the pile nationally.

Letterkenny and Stranorlar - Lifford are quite densely populated areas and with the latter's proximity to the border you would expect these areas to have the highest figures. Maybe even the Buncrana EA would be expected to be "highish" also given the population and it's border with Derry.

So whats going on in North Inishowen?

I know of at least 3 house parties over the last week.

One of them has a big cluster 20+ cases from it.

timmyntc

Cabletiesfix wrote: »

I know of at least 3 house parties over the last week.

One of them has a big cluster 20+ cases from it.

The population of those LEAs isn't huge either, so 20+ cases could easily explain the massive jump in cases per 100k.

Cabletiesfix

timmyntc wrote: »

The population of those LEAs isn't huge either, so 20+ cases could easily explain the massive jump in cases per 100k.

88 cases over a 2 week period

Technique

timmyntc wrote: »

The population of those LEAs isn't huge either, so 20+ cases could easily explain the massive jump in cases per 100k.

Would all LEAs not be designed to have approximately the same population?

echo beach

Technique wrote: »

Would all LEAs not be designed to have approximately the same population?

No, because some have more councillors than others. The more councillors the higher the population just like a 5 seater constituency has a higher population than a 3 seater.

timmyntc

Cabletiesfix wrote: »

88 cases over a 2 week period

I had the LEA populations way off in my head, oops.

Carn is very high alright, Buncrana LEA lower at 51 in last fortnight - that LEA includes all along the border with Derry too, and the halfway

malinheader

I'm surprised north inishowen is not higher.
I am hearing of at least 2 or 3 and more different cases every day.
I knew no one who had it before the summer.
Something seriously seriously wrong, can't be all partying.

babybuilder

malinheader wrote: »

I'm surprised north inishowen is not higher.
I am hearing of at least 2 or 3 and more different cases every day.
I knew no one who had it before the summer.
Something seriously seriously wrong, can't be all partying.

I know of one family hit pretty badly, over a dozen. Rumour is that it's hse related. As virus is highly contagious I imagine there are scores of asymptomatic individuals out there.

malinheader

babybuilder wrote: »

I know of one family hit pretty badly, over a dozen. Rumour is that it's hse related. As virus is highly contagious I imagine there are scores of asymptomatic individuals out there.

Only plus side is anyone I know to have had it or has it seems to be getting over it okay.
Hopefully stays like this.
Letterkenny has over 20 covid patients at the minute so must be very close to capacity .Hopefully we are at the peak.
Just hope people don't go mad over Christmas.

NIMAN

Spoke to a shop worker in Carn about the figures the other day, and they said that she knows of a girl who tested positive last week, and she had told people she tested positive, yet she is out and about in Carn doing her Xmas shopping as normal.

I think the high figures are down to a lot of stupidity like this.

Also hearing of quite a few schools with very high case numbers, or kids being kept off with potential symptoms. Think the community school is Carn is missing A LOT of students.

Cabletiesfix

NIMAN wrote: »

Spoke to a shop worker in Carn about the figures the other day, and they said that she knows of a girl who tested positive last week, and she had told people she tested positive, yet she is out and about in Carn doing her Xmas shopping as normal.

I think the high figures are down to a lot of stupidity like this.



Also hearing of quite a few schools with very high case numbers, or kids being kept off with potential symptoms. Think the community school is Carn is missing A LOT of students.

I've heard there's 400 of the 1000 students off.
Positive cases around clonmany as well , out and about Carrying on as normal

malinheader

Listening to Greg Hughes today and one thing I totally agreed with was when he challenged minister Ryan about if these figures were in any county in Ireland it would be being investigated or treated more serious.
4 or 5 times higher transmission than any other county in Ireland is very very serious.

NIMAN

malinheader wrote: »

Listening to Greg Hughes today and one thing I totally agreed with was when he challenged minister Ryan about if these figures were in any county in Ireland it would be being investigated or treated more serious.
4 or 5 times higher transmission than any other county in Ireland is very very serious.

But it's not down to anything special imho, I think it's simply down to our total lack of regard for rules and regulations. Ok the border with Derry and Strabane might be an issue for some of it, but it can't be blamed for it all. Other counties straddle the border and don't have high case numbers.

It's a pity that there can't be fines imposed on people out shopping when they are positive. Bloody idiots.

babybuilder

NIMAN wrote: »

But it's not down to anything special imho, I think it's simply down to our total lack of regard for rules and regulations. Ok the border with Derry and Strabane might be an issue for some of it, but it can't be blamed for it all. Other counties straddle the border and don't have high case numbers.

It's a pity that there can't be fines imposed on people out shopping when they are positive. Bloody idiots.

I believe the lines of cars heading to Newry with southern plates is unreal. I'd say it will be the same at muff and Bridgend. Especially with a catastrophic no deal Brexit on the way. Guards wouldn't want to have to issue fines or enforce the law.

malinheader

I was listening tonight at the deaths and new cases in northern Ireland and just wondering how long before they realise what a disaster it's going to be in a couple of weeks.

Same has to be said for inishowen if we keep going the way we are.

Would of been time enough to relax restrictions from the end or middle of next week imo.

NIMAN

I think there were first communions in Carn today.

Watch those numbers rocket in 2 weeks!

babybuilder

Back up today - 46.

echo beach

I was walking along the Pearse Road in Letterkenny today when a Northern registered car with two middle aged women pulled up and asked where the big shopping centre with Primark was. If you were never in Letterkenny before why pick now to visit?
When there are over 400 positive cases a day in NI and a shocking positivity rate of over 20% it isn’t hard to see a link to high numbers in Donegal.

TICKLE_ME_ELMO

echo beach wrote: »

I was walking along the Pearse Road in Letterkenny today when a Northern registered car with two middle aged women pulled up and asked where the big shopping centre with Primark was. If you were never in Letterkenny before why pick now to visit?
When there are over 400 positive cases a day in NI and a shocking positivity rate of over 20% it isn’t hard to see a link to high numbers in Donegal.

Should have told them the big shopping centre with Primark is in Derry.

slimboyfat

echo beach wrote: »

I was walking along the Pearse Road in Letterkenny today when a Northern registered car with two middle aged women pulled up and asked where the big shopping centre with Primark was. If you were never in Letterkenny before why pick now to visit?
When there are over 400 positive cases a day in NI and a shocking positivity rate of over 20% it isn’t hard to see a link to high numbers in Donegal.

I bet you if you were in Derry or Strabane you would find lots of southern reg cars but on the other hand it always easier to blame someone else isn't it.

slimboyfat

slimboyfat wrote: »

I bet you if you were in Derry or Strabane you would find lots of southern reg cars but on the other hand it always easier to blame someone else isn't it.

How does that change the fact that rates in N.I. are clearly higher, so cross border traffic, in either direction, is clearly having an impact on positivity rates in border areas?

Imo, the response to managing Covid-19 in N.I - for a number of reasons - was appalling. Accordingly, don't blame people who do their best to observe restrictions if they dislike it when other people don't. I haven't been in N.I. since last Christmas. I won't be there this Christmas, either, but if I were, I'd make a point of observing whatever restrictions were in force. Its not unreasonable to expect the same level of respect in return.

echo beach

The difference is that while people in Donegal are expected to stay in our own county, making Sligo the same as Derry or Strabane, there has never been any advice in NI on staying within your own county or district and at the moment no restrictions apply around shopping.

Cabletiesfix

NIMAN wrote: »

Spoke to a shop worker in Carn about the figures the other day, and they said that she knows of a girl who tested positive last week, and she had told people she tested positive, yet she is out and about in Carn doing her Xmas shopping as normal.

I think the high figures are down to a lot of stupidity like this.

Also hearing of quite a few schools with very high case numbers, or kids being kept off with potential symptoms. Think the community school is Carn is missing A LOT of students.

You hear badger on highland earlier today?;

Theres 7 positive cases in the school. Of the 39 close contacts, no one is positive.

He said there was hysteria on social media about an outbreak in the school. Didn't confirm how many were off school but he said it was substantial