Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

BLIZZARD7

Wow. Tonight's events on top of the rapid build up of the past few weeks are just completely surreal. We are living through historic times and we are stepping completely into the unknown in modern times. I fear the economic meltdown of 1928-34 is currently in motion again.
Of course the flight ban will slow the spread of imported cases for the US but there is already widespread community transmission there. I'm more worried about the political implications this move could trigger in US-EU relations with us sandwiched in the middle...

I'm also not sure the political institutions in Europe or beyond will survive the fallout from this pandemic if we reach some of the stark projections for total infected/mortality rates with no functioning health system.

niallo27

sdanseo wrote: »

I'll just leave these here...

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities

I thought the crypto currencies might do well out of this but looks like nothing is immune.

skimpydoo

spookwoman wrote: »

gone for a bit and what the hell has happened.

Tom Hanks and Wilson are in self isolation.

paddythere

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Wow. Tonight's events on top of the rapid build up of the past few weeks are just completely surreal. We are living through historic times and we are stepping completely into the unknown in modern times. I fear the economic meltdown of 1928-34 is currently in motion again.
Of course the flight ban will slow the spread of imported cases for the US but there is already widespread community transmission there. I'm more worried about the political implications this move could trigger in US-EU relations with us sandwiched in the middle...

I'm also not sure the political institutions in Europe or beyond will survive the fallout from this pandemic if we reach some of the stark projections for total infected/mortality rates with no functioning health system.

I agree. I've been saying this for a few weeks to be honest. This will probably be the end of the EU in the long run. Economies will be destroyed and people will be pissed off and blame lack of border control in failing to stop the virus

MadYaker

I must say I am tempted to choose an unfavourable collegues email address and set it up for reply notifications for this thread.

dummy_crusher

skimpydoo wrote: »

For those who are stating that Covid-19 will not last in warm weather, take a look at Tom Hanks and his Wife Rita Wilson. Tom is in Australia making a movie and it's their summer. Tom and Rita just caught Covid-19 in warm weather. This could be another game-changer.

Can't post url because this is a new account, but Qatar had 238 new cases on Wednesday (up from 24).

old_aussie

Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson test positive for coronavirus on the Gold Coast Australia

Here's the link


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-12/tom-hanks-and-rita-wilson-coronavirus-positive/12049366

Pseudonym121

All of the people talking about how it'll only be 0.9% mortality should consider the following:

1. 20% of people will be hospitalised.

2. Many of these will develop Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia.

3. Even if you survive this episode the long-term consequences can be devastating. There are many types of interstitial lung disease but mean survivals range from 2.5 to 7 years. Let's be optimistic and assume that with this it is 5 to 10 years.

Well, reducing the life expectancy of a large number of people in Ireland to 5 to 10 years and having these years be very limited in terms of their ability to do anything active and maybe people will begin to realise that even if we only have a 1% death rate now having a 9% rate of long-term complications from interstitial Lung Disease reducing life expectancy for this cohort to 5 to 10 years would be utterly devastating to the country and really drop average life expectancy for the next couple of decades.

There's a reason China is doing full lung transplants on survivors already.

People are just far too blase about this.

faceman

Not sure if this was posted already.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1237795888409587713?s=20

khalessi

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

All of the people talking about how it'll only be 0.9% mortality should consider the following:

1. 20% of people will be hospitalised.

2. Many of these will develop Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia.

3. Even if you survive this episode the long-term consequences can be devastating. There are many types of interstitial lung disease but mean survivals range from 2.5 to 7 years. Let's assume that with this it is 5 to 10 years.

Well, reducing the life expectancy of a large number of people in Ireland to 5 to 10 years and having these years be very limited in terms of their ability to do anything active and maybe people will begin to realise that even if we only have a 1% death rate now having a 9% rate of long-term complications from interstitial Lung Disease reducing life expectancy for this cohort to 5 to 10 years would be utterly devastating to the country and really drop average life expectancy for the next couple of decades.

People are just far too blase about this.

I am sitting here awake tears in my eyes reading this, cant sleep as my one of my kids is worried Im going to die. It was the last question I was asked last night before they fell asleep.The second last question was whether they would get it and die.

How do I reassure them?

What do you suggest Pseudonym?

This is heartbreaking

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237944765343293440

The United States is a glorified petri dish for Coronavirus - an incubation mecca - so there is some ludicrousness in these statements.

kaymin

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

All of the people talking about how it'll only be 0.9% mortality should consider the following:

1. 20% of people will be hospitalised.

2. Many of these will develop Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia.

3. Even if you survive this episode the long-term consequences can be devastating. There are many types of interstitial lung disease but mean survivals range from 2.5 to 7 years. Let's be optimistic and assume that with this it is 5 to 10 years.

Well, reducing the life expectancy of a large number of people in Ireland to 5 to 10 years and having these years be very limited in terms of their ability to do anything active and maybe people will begin to realise that even if we only have a 1% death rate now having a 9% rate of long-term complications from interstitial Lung Disease reducing life expectancy for this cohort to 5 to 10 years would be utterly devastating to the country and really drop average life expectancy for the next couple of decades.

There's a reason China is doing full lung transplants on survivors already.

People are just far too blase about this.

89% of those currently infected have mild symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#recovered

Have you any evidence / stats to back up points 2 and 3?

Peregrinus

skimpydoo wrote: »

For those who are stating that Covid-19 will not last in warm weather, take a look at Tom Hanks and his Wife Rita Wilson. Tom is in Australia making a movie and it's their summer. Tom and Rita just caught Covid-19 in warm weather. This could be another game-changer.

Hanks and his wife tested positive in Queensland, but may have contracted the virus outside Australia. There has been some community spread in Australia, but we are still at the stage where nearly all identified cases contracted the virus abroad, or from an immediate family member who contracted it abroad.

FWIW I don't think anyone is suggesting that the virus can't spread in hot climates, just that it will spread much less, or at a lower rate. I don't know if there is much or any foundation for that hope, but it isn't contradicted by pointing to a single instance of the virus in a hot climate.

(PS: It's not that hot in Queensland at the moment. In Gold Coast, the City where Hanks is, today's forecast is rain, high of 22 degrees.)

bekker

faceman wrote: »

Hard to follow this. Can someone explain the logic behind banning Schengen but not Ireland and the U.K.?

Ireland/UK not in free travel area (unrestricted movement) which includes Italy, Spain and France. Not a good political idea to single out adversely Italians or Spanish before US Presidential Election.

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

89% of those currently infected have mild symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#recovered

Have you any evidence / stats to back up points 2 and 3?

I think you are misinterpreting "mild" symptoms. Most will feel exceptionally ill and many will develop pneumonia. "Mild" simply means less risk of it being fatal.

It does not mean what some seem to suggest (no symptoms, go about your normal routine).

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you are misinterpreting "mild" symptoms. Most will feel exceptionally ill and many will develop pneumonia. "Mild" simply means less risk of it being fatal.

It does not mean what some seem to suggest (no symptoms, go about your normal routine).

That isn’t what mild symptoms means ffs, 20 to 30 percent require hospitalisation. The rest are mild not exceptionally ill.

kaymin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you are misinterpreting "mild" symptoms. Most will feel exceptionally ill and many will develop pneumonia. "Mild" simply means less risk of it being fatal.

It does not mean what some seem to suggest (no symptoms, go about your normal routine).

I haven't interpreted anything. That's the description given by the experts. I think you are looking for the worst and making pointless / groundless arguments.

Mairead McGuinness was interviewed by Mary Wilson on Radio 1 yesterday or the day before and she had nothing useful to say. Twice she made the point about how the European Parliament were themselves taking actions to protect themselves but that was it. It would be the equivalent of Simon Harris telling us there was hand sanitizer in the Dail. The EU as a political body has been completely woeful in its response. There will be a backlash against it Europe wide.

If Germany can unilaterally ban export of PPE in the national interest? If Austria and Slovenia can unilaterally close their borders with Italy in their national interest? Why can't Ireland unilaterally negotiate with the UK in our national interest? EU countries are, what they should be really, me feiners. Whatever way the EU comes out of this, the federalization of Europe may be dead.

Re-introducing visas and getting rid of visa waivers might not be a bad thing after this?

Anyway, slightly ot and slightly ott.

Kermit.de.frog

MadYaker wrote: »

That isn’t what mild symptoms means ffs, 20 to 30 percent require hospitalisation. The rest are mild not exceptionally ill.

Wrong. Of course it depends on what you define as "exceptionally ill"...waking up with snot pouring out your nose and your bedroom spinning would meet that definition for me.

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

I haven't interpreted anything. That's the description given by the experts. I think you are looking for the worst and making pointless / groundless arguments.

I think you have lost touch with reality.

But don't worry, it will catch up on everyone as the crisis develops.

There is a reason countries are reacting as they are.

Remember that.

firemansam4

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

All of the people talking about how it'll only be 0.9% mortality should consider the following:

1. 20% of people will be hospitalised.

2. Many of these will develop Bilateral Interstitial Pneumonia.

3. Even if you survive this episode the long-term consequences can be devastating. There are many types of interstitial lung disease but mean survivals range from 2.5 to 7 years. Let's be optimistic and assume that with this it is 5 to 10 years.

Well, reducing the life expectancy of a large number of people in Ireland to 5 to 10 years and having these years be very limited in terms of their ability to do anything active and maybe people will begin to realise that even if we only have a 1% death rate now having a 9% rate of long-term complications from interstitial Lung Disease reducing life expectancy for this cohort to 5 to 10 years would be utterly devastating to the country and really drop average life expectancy for the next couple of decades.

There's a reason China is doing full lung transplants on survivors already.

People are just far too blase about this.

Have you any links to these claims?

kaymin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you have lost touch with reality.

But don't worry, it will catch up on everyone as the crisis develops.

There is a reason countries are reacting as they are.

Remember that.

If you say so. There's an election approaching in the US in case you hadn't noticed.

Peregrinus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think you are misinterpreting "mild" symptoms. Most will feel exceptionally ill and many will develop pneumonia. "Mild" simply means less risk of it being fatal.

It does not mean what some seem to suggest (no symptoms, go about your normal routine).

It certgainly doesn't mean "go about your normal routine", if only because you will be infectious, and quarantined.

And it doesn't mean "no symptoms". You'll feel pretty rotten - fever, shortness of breath, fatigue. It'll be a nasty dose.

But "mild symptoms" certainly doesn't include people suffering from pneumonia. Pneumonia is never a "mild symptom". And mild doesn't mean "anything short of nearly fatal"; it means a good deal milder than that.

The picture seems to be:

About 80% of people have a degree of sickness such that, even in normal conditions, they would not be considered ill enough to be hospitalised. Many of them will be quite sick, though. But many others won't - a couple of days of fever, residual fatigue. The younger you are, the better your chances of having so mild a dose.

Of the remaining 20%, not all will be hospitalised, if only because of the pressure on hospital facilities. You'll be hospitalised if you need treatment which you can't get at home - intravenous medication; assisted respiration; that kind of thing - or if you need a level of care that simply can't be maintained at home.

Fatality rate isn't completely nailed down yet, but between 1% and 3% will die. As the pandemic progresses, this rate is likely to fall, partly because we exepct with experience to develop better treatment/management protocols, and partly because the less virulent strains of a virus naturally tend to dominate over the more virulent strains. (Darwinism at work!)

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

If you say so. There's an election approaching in the US in case you hadn't noticed.

If you think countries around the world are taking the measures they are taking for some mild flu like thing that comes and goes and it's no worse than a bad cold then you are delusional.

Simple as that. Utterly delusional. Actions like these are not taken unless the situation is incredibly serious.

Unbelievable that some seem to think countries shutting down their economies and amputating whole regions is somehow in reaction to something benign.

Larbre34

khalessi wrote: »

I am sitting here awake tears in my eyes reading this, cant sleep as my one of my kids is worried Im going to die. It was the last question I was asked last night before they fell asleep.The second last question was whether they would get it and die.

How do I reassure them?

What do you suggest Pseudonym?

This is heartbreaking

Ok look. Things are going to get worse before thet get better.

However, if you are a parent in early middle age with young kids, your risk is VERY low.

The mortality rate for those aged under 50 with no underlying medical condition is 0.5%. One out of every 200 infected or less.

For kids, as far as I can ascertain, there have been no fatalities in kids under 10 without chronic medical problems. Zero.

All parents are about to be tested in an unprecedented fashion. Schooling, sport, normal social events, entertainment, holidays, visiting older relatives, may all end for quite a while. Certain foods that kids have become used to may disappear from shops for a long time and many households may experience financial problems they never imagined.

This is our wartime, this is our rationing, this is our 'troubles', our dark times. Be strong for your kids, put reassurance at the centre of everything and take the time to express sadness and frustration with your partners, your friends, other parents, but try and keep it peaceful for the kids.

At the same time, kids are surprisingly resilient. Trust them with some information so that they understand the basics, they will fear the unknown more. Give them little jobs at home so they feel included and part of the effort. Drill the hygiene regime with them often. And for people with elderly and compromised relatives, prepare kids for loss and bereavement if they have not experienced it before, there are many good online supports to explain how to go about it.

This does not have to all happen tomorrow, but begin thinking about it. Begin planning. And most importantly, be kind to yourself in the process.

Mellor

Larbre34 wrote: »

Actually he won't. The small jet remaining of the two the Air Corps once had doesn't have the range to travel to the US.

Private jet and Air Corps Jet aren't the same thing. Not even close.
There's no way they are opposed to paying for private planes.

Kauto

Larbre34 wrote: »

Ok look. Things are going to get worse before thet get better.

However, if you are a parent in early middle age with young kids, your risk is VERY low.

The mortality rate for those aged under 50 with no underlying medical condition is 0.5%. One out of every 200 infected or less.

For kids, as far as I can ascertain, there have been no fatalities in kids under 10 without chronic medical problems. Zero.

All parents are about to be tested in an unprecedented fashion. Schooling, sport, normal social events, entertainment, holidays, visiting older relatives, may all end for quite a while. Certain foods that kids have become used to may disappear from shops for a long time and many households may experience financial problems they never imagined.

This is our wartime, this is our rationing, this is our 'troubles', our dark times. Be strong for your kids, put reassurance at the centre of everything and take the time to express sadness and frustration with your partners, your friends, other parents, but try and keep it peaceful for the kids.

At the same time, kids are surprisingly resilient. Trust them with some information so that they understand the basics, they will fear the unknown more. Give them little jobs at home so they feel included and part of the effort. Drill the hygiene regime with them often. And for people with elderly and compromised relatives, prepare kids for loss and bereavement if they have not experienced it before, there are many good online supports to explain how to go about it.

This does not have to all happen tomorrow, but begin thinking about it. Begin planning. And most importantly, be kind to yourself in the process.

Pure rubbish! Cop yourself on.

kaymin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If you think countries around the world are taking the measures they are taking for some mild flu like thing that comes and goes and it's no worse than a bad cold then you are delusional.

Simple as that. Utterly delusional. Actions like these are not taken unless the situation is incredibly serious.

Unbelievable that some seem to think countries shutting down their economies and amputating whole regions is somehow in reaction to something benign.

Some countries are over reacting others aren't. Trump's announcement this evening is purely political. If he was serious about addressing the virus he would roll out free testing for it rather than expecting people to pay up to 2 or 3k to be tested. I'd have liked the Irish govt to shut down flights from Italy weeks ago but other than that I think they have found a proportionate approach.

Other countries such as slovakia have closed all schools and universities despite having minimal cases and generally not many visitors from abroad. The public there is almost in a state of hysteria - complete over reaction led from the top.

Unearthly

Yeah so that's a game changer.

I had already convinced myself in January this was serious but it's surreal seeing it play out. Genuinely concerned now

Larbre34

Kauto wrote: »

Pure rubbish! Cop yourself on.

Is it? What part?