Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

kaymin

old_aussie wrote: »

Who gives a rats about an election in the US.

Last thing on most peoples minds.

I was responding to Kermit's comment that countries wouldn't be taking the action they were taking unless it was deadly serious. The only thing on Trump's mind is getting re elected.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

Some experts suggest that this virus is possibly 3-4x times more infectious than a common influenza virus. Because it's a new virus, nobody has any kind of natural defence against it.

And also anything up to possibly 10x more deadly if you contract it... based on the very early stats we are looking at.

Hence why this is now classified as a pandemic.

How many countries declare a national emergency, when they are experiencing a particularly bad cold & flu season? It would be unheard of... this virus is spreading and killing much faster than any common flu virus.

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

Each of those countries have had miniscule or no new cases in recent days and weeks.

South Korea has 114 new cases so far today.



On China - firstly they are full of sh!t with their numbers and the world knows it. They get away with it internally for obvious reasons.

Secondly how would you like to be welded in to your apartment block as China did?

Is that ok with you?

You want these measures, right? Because they work, correct?

kaymin

Mellor wrote: »

No, not all countries are like Iran.
But you're including Iranian mild cases in your post.

Feel free to carve out the Iranian numbers. Doesn't change the stats quoted significantly.

Mellor

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

The line in red is where your logic breaks down.

11% is based on total confirmed cases, not hospitalised cases. Not everyone who is confirmed requires hospitalisation.
If the hospitalisation rate it 20%, it means 55% of them will become critical. and of those who are critical, currently 50% are dying.


Actually, the previous line is incorrect also. The 11% is out of all confirmed, not just symptomatic and confirmed. Most people tested are asymptomatic and didn't contract it.

ceadaoin.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

We don't have to hope, even if were so inclined.
Evidence is enough, unfortunately.

Ok then.

I'm not sure people understand how the system works. No one is left to die, even those who are uninsured will be treated. In non emergency situations, it costs about the same for a person without insurance to see a doctor at an urgent care as it does to see a GP in Ireland.

Well obviously that's how it normally works, I agree if the system gets overwhelmed then who knows. As it stands there is a well functioning top notch healthcare system for the majority of people who live here. Can the same be said for Ireland?

Apparently there will be no fee for treatment anyway.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

kaymin wrote: »

Each of those countries have had miniscule or no new cases in recent days and weeks.

But how can you deem those countries "out the other side" until they are capable of going back to functioning as normal societies?

You cannot remain in lockdown mode indefinitely... it is a drastic and temporary measure, in order to save lives. So you could say these counties are living in an unnatural state, this is why the virus is not following it's natural progression!

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

I was responding to Kermit's comment that countries wouldn't be taking the action they were taking unless it was deadly serious. The only thing on Trump's mind is getting re elected.

Your argument is ludicrous. Countries all over the world are implementing ever more extreme measures.

Yet you focus on Trump because it's the only validation you hope to get.

I'm telling you countries would not be making these decisions if the situation wasn't extremely serious.

You seem to disagree.

More power to you then.

kaymin

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

South Korea has 114 new cases so far today.



On China - firstly they are full of sh!t with their numbers and the world knows it. They get away with it internally for obvious reasons.

Secondly how would you like to be welded in to your apartment block as China did?

Is that ok with you?

You want these measures, right? Because they work, correct?

I know that the Chinese supply chains for some companies I track are back up and running.

Short periods of quarantine seem reasonable to me if they address the issue, as they seem to have done.

Koreas numbers are viewed as reliable - 114 cases is miniscule in comparison to what they were experiencing and the trajectory it was taking at one stage. The trend is what is key and that is towards zero.

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/italian-doctors-propose-intensive-care-age-limit-to-save-younger-patients-20200312-p5499t.html

Italian doctors say the coronavirus pandemic may mean patients over a certain age could be banned from intensive care units and left to die to give others a better chance of survival.

The advice – distributed by the Italian College of Anaesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care amid a rapidly escalating outbreak in Europe – warns of the difficult moral and ethical decisions facing doctors and nurses as COVID-19 spreads and overwhelms public hospitals

Peregrinus

ceadaoin. wrote: »

When did they say that? I dont remember it. All I hear is how children arent affected which seems dubious to me

There are several viruses that affect children relatively mildly, but that tend to be more serious if you contract them as an adult. - chicken pox, for example. It's possible that Covid-19 will turn out to be one of these. SFAIK, worldwide, out of about 4,500 deaths recorded so far there is no recorded of a child under 10 dying of Covid-19, unless already seriously ill with another condition.

Mellor

Mellor wrote: »

If the hospitalisation rate it 20%, it means 55% of them will become critical. and of those who are critical, currently 50% are dying.

One quarter of people who have to go to hospital die?

Kermit.de.frog

kaymin wrote: »

I know that the Chinese supply chains for some companies I track are back up and running.

Short periods of quarantine seem reasonable to me if they address the issue, as they seem to have done.

Koreas numbers are viewed as reliable - 114 cases is miniscule in comparison to what they were experiencing and the trajectory it was taking at one stage. The trend is what is key and that is towards zero.

So when soldiers come to weld you into your apartment block you will have no complaints then?

Delusional.

Goodnight.

kaymin

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But how can you deem those countries "out the other side" until they are capable of going back to functioning as normal societies?

You cannot remain in lockdown mode indefinitely... it is a drastic and temporary measure, in order to save lives. So you could say these counties are living in an unnatural state, this is why the virus is not following it's natural progression!

But the lockdown has been lifted to a significant degree. Obviously it will be closely monitored and new clusters will still need to be snuffed out

igCorcaigh

I expect a lot of countries to open the purse strings and pay people who have to stay at home, or for small businesses to weather this storm.

The QE paper needs to pour into to the local economy right now.

ceadaoin.

Peregrinus wrote: »

There are several viruses that affect children relatively mildly, but that tend to be more serious if you contract them as an adult. - chicken pox, for example. It's possible that Covid-19 will turn out to be one of these. SFAIK, worldwide, out of about 4,500 deaths recorded so far there is no recorded of a child under 10 dying of Covid-19, unless already seriously ill with another condition.

Maybe it's technically possible but is it likely? Does any other coronavirus behave in this way? I dont think so.

pc7

Jesus think that’s the biggest over night jump on the threads I’ve seen since all this started.
I thought the Trump news was a Waterford Whisper headline. Crazy times.

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

One quarter of people who have to go to hospital die?

A bit sweeping considering all Irish cases, so far, have been hospitalised, but that's just for monitoring (rather than them all being seriously ill).

Kermit.de.frog

pc7 wrote: »

Jesus think that’s the biggest over night jump on the threads I’ve seen since all this started.
I thought the Trump news was a Waterford Whisper headline. Crazy times.

It damages the global and US economy and does sweet f all to stop the progress of the infections in the US.

Also I wouldn't rule out retaliation from some countries on the continent.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

kaymin wrote: »

But the lockdown has been lifted to a significant degree. Obviously it will be closely monitored and new clusters will still need to be snuffed out

I would find it hard to imagine busy streets in China, packed with millions of people, not causing this thing spring back up again... I read that they are relaxing measures somewhat, but there's a big difference between this and actually going back to normalcy... but maybe I'm wrong?

Could we face a year of severely disrupted life, until someone manages to develop a vaccine for this thing?

Peregrinus

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Maybe it's technically possible but is it likely? Does any other coronavirus behave in this way? I dont think so.

HCoV-NL63 works the other way; it primarily affects young children. Adults seem to be affected by it if they are frail or immuncompromised. Which is not good, but at least it tells us CoV impacts can be age-related. And, early days, but the raw numbers so far do suggest that maybe Covid-19 impacts children very lightly.

ceadaoin.

Peregrinus wrote: »

HCoV-NL63 works the other way; it primarily affects young children. Adults seem to be affected by it if they are frail or immuncompromised. Which is not good, but at least it tells us CoV impacts can be age-related. And, early days, but the raw numbers so far do suggest that maybe Covid-19 impacts children very lightly.

That's interesting thanks.

Gynoid

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487110-tests-indicate-coronavirus-can-survive-in-the-air?amp#click=https://t.co/fxnuxGvN5K

Maybe already posted. Tests indicate virus lingers in air for 30 minutes.

VinLieger

DOCARCH wrote: »

A bit sweeping considering all Irish cases, so far, have been hospitalised, but that's just for monitoring (rather than them all being seriously ill).

All Irish cases have not been hospitalised, i know 2 people who tested positive but stayed at home due to only having a fever, they look to be cleared next week hopefully.

Hamsterchops

*Updated figures for today UK & Ireland . . .
UK - NHS = 456
IRL - HSE = 043
Wednesday 11th March.

amadangomor wrote: »

Are you some sort of official source? Can I get one of those nifty arrows to head up my posts?

Yes indeed, I'm your official 'unofficial guide' to the daily UK & Ireland numbers

Gynoid

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Seems like some people on here are really wishing it gets bad in the US so they can moan about the healthcare system/Trump/Americans in general etc. Pathetic

It is pathetic. As if many countries are really doing a better job? Since day one so many have felt compelled to constantly shoehorn the word Trump into their covid commentary. It seems neurotic.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/PhilipObin/status/1237984123551129600

paddythere

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

South Korea has 114 new cases so far today.



On China - firstly they are full of sh!t with their numbers and the world knows it. They get away with it internally for obvious reasons.

Secondly how would you like to be welded in to your apartment block as China did?

Is that ok with you?

You want these measures, right? Because they work, correct?

Gynoid wrote: »

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487110-tests-indicate-coronavirus-can-survive-in-the-air?amp#click=https://t.co/fxnuxGvN5K

Maybe already posted. Tests indicate virus lingers in air for 30 minutes.

Thats terrifying but likely correct

Mellor

kaymin wrote: »

Feel free to carve out the Iranian numbers. Doesn't change the stats quoted significantly.

And you are sure the Iran are the only country it applies to? And all other countries are using the exact standard for reporting. How could you possible know that.

Mild and Critical are subject terms. They will vary wildly.
Dead or alive, much less subjective

Graces7

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I would find it hard to imagine busy streets in China, packed with millions of people, not causing this thing spring back up again... I read that they are relaxing measures somewhat, but there's a big difference between this and actually going back to normalcy... but maybe I'm wrong?

Could we face a year of severely disrupted life, until someone manages to develop a vaccine for this thing?

That is probably a fair and realistic estimate