Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

lilmissprincess wrote: »

I actually feel much better about them being spotted and treated/isolated as compared to them not being tested and told "you're probably grand" and therefore allowing it to spread untraced throughout the community. Yes, it will appear worse at first but its an essential step in cracking down on the numbers actually impacted.

Yeah, I don't know how that move could be criticised really. Better to try and identify who has it and figure out where it is being spread. The more information to process, the better.

wakka12

WHO have announced that the focus of the epidemic has now moved from Asia to Europe. Shocking how fast things develop with this virus.

BloodBath

Renjit wrote: »

Virus can mutate. Currently, S and L strain. L strain is more deadly.

Not proven.

gmisk

jackboy wrote: »

This rumor is very strong and gone all over. Many teachers are saying this is the case.

I am not personally a teacher but I used to work for the department of education and still know a lot of people in it.
Seems to be substance to it.

Good article on why washing hands with soap & water helps. Soaps (even anti-bacterial ones) attack the lipid layer of the virus causing it to fall apart. Its not 'killed' as such, rather rendered inactive and so neutralised.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deadly-viruses-are-no-match-for-plain-old-soap-heres-the-science-behind-it-2020-03-08

Mic 1972

wakka12 wrote: »

The death rate is very unlikely to be as high as 3.4%.
1% is the generally consensus, South Korea who have tested several hundred thousand people and the cruise ship would both also hold up this figure.

1% is a general fantasy


Closed cases have a 6% death rate based on a large reliable sample
Closed + unresolved cases has a 3.4% rate which is obviously skewed by the unresolved cases in it
Undetected cases can't be assumed, but the general understanding is that they account for a small part unfortunately, as detailed by WHO

DrumSteve

BloodBath wrote: »

Oh will you feck off with this BS. The Chinese numbers have proven to be accurate now that we have worldwide data.

There was a load of people in here claiming the death toll was far higher, that dead bodies were lining the streets, that people were getting welded into their apartments to die, that there was as smoke cloud over Wuhan from massive cremations, all proven to be bollocks.

There's a forum called conspiracy theories if you want to have a go at the Chinese.

The welding was true; however was this not done to force people out of a single exit rather than no exit?

Cuckoo7

namloc1980 wrote: »

.

I loved this show as a kid.
I think I’m gonna spend my evening looking for episodes in YouTube instead of going mental reading this thread:D.

igCorcaigh

Merlin44 wrote: »

Its generally accepted the l strain of the virus headed here from.italy a mutation with hight cfr case fatality rate the m strain ended up in korea hence the diffrences in cfr

Scary if true.

Would account for the big difference in cfr.
Is there genomic data to support this?

mlem123

gmisk wrote: »

I am not personally a teacher but I used to work for the department of education and still know a lot of people in it.
Seems to be substance to it.

Seems to be just teachers rather than public servants in general

traco

A piece on how the numbers work

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Phoebas

gmisk wrote: »

I have heard from a few people (department of education) the instruction to close schools is waiting for a meeting on TDs etc on Friday.

That sounds like people putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5.

If there was a decision made to close schools there would be no reason to defer the announcement to some arbitrary date.

Utter Consternation

Mic 1972 wrote: »

1% is a general fantasy


Closed cases have a 6% death rate based on a large reliable sample
Closed + unresolved cases has a 3.4% rate which is obviously skewed by the unresolved cases in it
Undetected cases can't be assumed, but the general understanding is that they account for a small part unfortunately, as detailed by WHO

An unresolved case is a person that is not clear of the virus?

D.Q

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Scary if true.

Would account for the big difference in cfr.
Is there genomic data to support this?

generally accepted by who?

Any source?

thehedge

In case any one is interested in really important statistics

This thread started 21-01-20
reached 1000 posts 30-01-2020
Part II started on 24-02-20
Reached 10,000 posts half an hour later
Part III Started on 01-03-20 after 8576 posts
Part IV Started on 05-03-20 after 9602 posts
Part V Started on 08-03-20 after 9299 posts
Part VI Started on 11-03-20 after 9853 posts

Parts I - V contain 47,277 posts so whoever has post number 2723 in part 6 will have made the 50,000 post

Posts Breakdown
Part I 9947 posts
Part II 8576 posts
Part III 9602 posts
Part IV 9299 posts
Part V 9853 posts

wakka12

Another case connected to Egypt, new case in Tunisia, they had recently travelled to Egypt. With 238 new cases in Qatar just announced it seems a major epidemic in Middle east/ North East Africa will soon be uncovered

Pretty much an impossibility that Turkey has only one case, sitting between Italy and Iran.

yourdeadwright

wakka12 wrote: »

Ted Andros of WHO today said the death rate is ten times more lethal than flu, which is 1%.

Whatever number they give out the real death rate is actually lower,


Lets say they have 2730 positive tested people and 10 die they give that percentage,
When in reality there will be many more who have it but are never tested and simple feel bad for a couple of days and get over it, So these people are never counted ,

So they death rate of 6% , 2 % or whatever is not the actually the real death rate it will always be lower

cherryghost

wakka12 wrote: »

WHO have announced that the focus of the epidemic has now moved from Asia to Europe. Shocking how fast things develop with this virus.

Check Chinas case with death rate. It's running close to 1:1 as cases are coming down. Deaths really arent. Their fatality rate is creeping up at the end of theirs

Professor Moriarty

Mic 1972 wrote: »

1% is a general fantasy


Closed cases have a 6% death rate based on a large reliable sample
Closed + unresolved cases has a 3.4% rate which is obviously skewed by the unresolved cases in it
Undetected cases can't be assumed, but the general understanding is that they account for a small part unfortunately, as detailed by WHO

Why are undetected cases assumed to be a small part?

Xertz

Downlinz wrote: »

South Korea have a better medical service than virtually every other country in the world. Italy's death rate is nearly 6% by comparison, which is probably more realistic for us considering our low rate of testing and low number of ICU beds.

Actually doesn’t seem to stack up that way. Looking objectively at the statistics a lot of countries rank higher than South Korea and health services are pretty complex.

Also without exception, if we get the kind of rates Merkel has been talking about with more than half the population infected, it’s going to be swamped. No system has those kinds of ICU resources and a few hundred ICU beds will end up being neither here nor there.

Keeping this contained now is the most important bit which is why I don’t understand how we still had flights operating to and from northern Italy.

Whatever about the economic impact on tourism, it will be a hell of lot worse if this goes out of control.

gmisk

mlem123 wrote: »

Seems to be just teachers rather than public servants in general

Yes teachers only

gozunda

sideswipe wrote: »

I wonder what instructions would come with such a closure?

Schools closed, stay at home and away from large gatherings? I can imagine shopping centres etc being packed with kids on an extended holiday.

Without a lockdown like Italy and parental / other supervision - a school closure at this point would result in large groups of feral kids on the loose. Must parents are still working.

Not good idea imo.

Ulysses Gaze

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Apple employee in Cork who tested positive apparently decided the pub was better than self isolating, another positive case needed to have her hair done, anyone who goes out in public with it should be fined

They should be allowed recover and then sent to prison for 2 years for doing that.

DrumSteve

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Scary if true.

Would account for the big difference in cfr.
Is there genomic data to support this?

None.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

“There do appear to be two different strains,” says Ravinder Kanda at Oxford Brookes University in the UK. “[The L-type] might be more aggressive in transmitting itself, but we have no idea yet how these underlying genetic changes will relate to disease severity,” she says.

PhoenixParker

wakka12 wrote: »

The death rate is very unlikely to be as high as 3.4%.
1% is the generally consensus, South Korea who have tested several hundred thousand people and the cruise ship would both also hold up this figure.

Its 0.5-1% if the illness levels are low enough that everyone who needs an ICU bed gets one. When you run out of ICU beds it skyrockets.

igCorcaigh

D.Q wrote: »

generally accepted by who?

Any source?

I have no idea but would like to know.
Any WHO data would be helpful.

Cuckoo7

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Yeah, I don't know how that move could be criticised really. Better to try and identify who has it and figure out where it is being spread. The more information to process, the better.

I think the poster miss was responding to meant to say that we would be seeing a very sharp increase in positives from now on, that’s what the bad feeling was about.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Scary if true.

Would account for the big difference in cfr.
Is there genomic data to support this?

Would the triaging and massive pressure on Italian health infrastructure not be a bigger factor here?

JDD

Question for y'all.

I saw the tweet from One Pico last night, and I have to say I feel very sorry for all the small business owners who are starting the feel the pinch and know that it is only going to get worse.

I am considering asking two of my friends if they want to go out to dinner on Friday night. I feel like I should support the restaurant business - while I still can - as it would be a terrible pity if some really good places went under.

I don't expect small businesses will get anything like the same amount of financial support from our government as that which has just been announced in the UK budget.

Am I being irresponsible by going out on Friday? We'll keep apart from one other, wash our hands, all the usual craic. And at the moment I am on my work floor with 140 other people, I can't see how going to a restaurant with two friends will make me more likely to pick something up, or pass it on to someone else.

What are your thoughts?

autumnbelle

Older people must be absolutely terrified. I wonder will the woman in the east be given the burial the funeral directors recommended and did she die on her own if she was in isolation. So sad, same with reading about italians not treating older people.. disgusting to think that is the way people are being treated