Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

cloudatlas

Duke of Url wrote: »

I think its would have been funny yesterday evening when their partners got home from work to find the OH had emptied the bank account on crap.

De wimmins!

Spook_ie

Boggles wrote: »

Did their advisers say that?

Their (UK) science advisor said so

https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

ThePopehimself

gmisk wrote: »

F*ck it I will

Prices medical hall
Aka
Clare street medical

On nassau street

It's pure alcohol pretty much apart from the gouging it would destroy your hands!

People are paying it as well!

History will judge that.

When we look back, people will know who did the right thing and who didn't.
You are right to name the Pharmacy.

cnocbui

ThePopehimself wrote: »

He he re-using the same mask?

You can re-use a cartridge style mask. Obviously disinfect the exterior and wash your hands on removal.

BetterWay

VinLieger wrote: »

This is part of the reasons why a full lockdown is 100% on its way. I dont believe the Monday rumours but could easily happen by end of next week.

What exactly do you think that entails?


And where do you think they'll find the people to police it when they can't even police O'Connell Street properly?

Tacitus Kilgore

BetterWay wrote: »

What exactly do you think that entails?


And where do you think they'll find the people to police it when they can't even police O'Connell Street properly?

Can you think of a better way?

wylo

BetterWay wrote: »

What exactly do you think that entails?


And where do you think they'll find the people to police it when they can't even police O'Connell Street properly?

Army

mirrorwall14

Volthar wrote: »

Well, at least teachers are safe and will be able to serve the next generation.

That’s obnoxious. I spent the evening prepping classes and videos as usual and the day working with the students to the best of my ability with mostly my own equipment and while minding two kids of my own Like most I do my utmost for my students and quite frankly when I read things like that I don’t know why I bother because the public don’t give a flying **** what we do and never stop resenting us.

tobefrank321

cloudatlas wrote: »

How would it last longer if the survivors of the mild illness became immune and then stopped the spread to the at risk group?

Leaving the schools open was judged to have a minor effect, I’d be worried about closing schools and leaving work places open meaning that children would be cared for by those at home and at risk groups like grand parents.

They become immune for this years strain only. Without a vaccine the only way to eliminate it is a total wipeout like the Chinese are attempting and they are almost there. Their new cases are less than our own despite having 300 times the population. A couple of weeks from now new cases there will be counted on one hand. At that stage it becomes manageable with targeted containments.

Its impossible in an epidemic to stop the spread to the at risk group in the UK. The grandparents mind kids anyways such as school holidays like Easter and Summer. And the kids will spread it to them in general. If it becomes endemic the chances of spread to at risk rises hugely. And if they survive this years strain, they may not next years one. So you end up with grandparents permanently isolated at home. And nursing homes permanently closed off.

And then you have the question of vulnerable patients in hospital. How are they supposed to attend hospital appointments if they risk picking up CV?

UK citizens will also be banned permanently from most countries in the world who are trying to control the spread. And no tourists will go to the UK for fear of picking it up.

The UK government haven't thought this through.

El Weirdo

drunkmonkey wrote: »

... can't wait for the slagging if someone sneezes...

Yeah, that gets boring extremely quickly.

Clarence Boddiker

gmisk wrote: »

Ok today's rip off.

A chemist near nassau Street.
I saw hand sanitizer sign available great i popped in.
3 little bottles in a bag 70 percent alcohol.
Clearly made on site.

Total cost 28 euro...seriously

Absolute scumbags

solidasarock

The anti vax nutters are going to have a field day when they do finally have a vaccine.

almostover

Spook_ie wrote: »

But are their advisors right or wrong about needing to develop herd immunity to prevent occurrences each year, as it's now pandemic it's surely with us for life, like measles and mumps thanks to anti vaxxers

Ah survival of the fittest! The Tory way. We should be limiting the spread of the virus until such time a vaccine and/or treatment is developed.

Mortelaro

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

That’s obnoxious. I spent the evening prepping classes and videos as usual and the day working with the students to the best of my ability with mostly my own equipment and while minding two kids of my own Like most I do my utmost for my students and quite frankly when I read things like that I don’t know why I bother because the public don’t give a flying **** what we do and never stop resenting us.

Why do you bother reading it?
The poster is obviously either ignorant or just joking
Neither would be a reason to take heed

Steve F

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Try this - it's the source article for the Post. Clinial trials in April.

If this is accurate it's bloody marvelous

Thanks for posting
Steve

TheAsYLuMkeY

perrito caliente wrote: »

Day for the high stool lads. Miserable out there. Forget about it a while. Fresh Guinness just poured 😃

And virus all over the handles of the stool, metal bar running across the front of the bar, all the piss in the toilet on the floor and everywhere contaminated with it, all the taps and handles of toilet crawling with it, and depending on the hygiene of the bar man serving you, the glass he held while filling it from the tap will be contaminated.

People need to really wake up to the reality of whats happening in our neighboring country, your a ****ing pleb and so are the bars that are still open.

Ban accepted without argument.

KWAG2019

Some great local initiatives emerging: restaurants delivering dinners to elderly /immune compromised/ self isolating. Local groups doing grocery shopping and delivering for same groups. Ar aghaidh le cheile.

freshpopcorn

I went to Tesco to get bread for somebody.
Apparently it was sold out in town. Tesco had a good enough bit of it left.
Milk,toilet roll, handwashing, etc were all in stock.
Some people are desperate to likes online from what I can see locally

My company are still saying the office is open normal hours and we are expected for now at least to come to work.
I imagine lots of other companies are the same. Very reluctant to let people stay home.

at1withmyself

facehugger99 wrote: »

Loads of groups of kids meeting up in the housing estate and down the town. Can't see that closing the schools will have any effect on the rate of spread what so ever.

Looking like a very dumb decision.

More like dumb parents...

Xertz

solidasarock wrote: »

The anti vax nutters are going to have a field day when they do finally have a vaccine.

Could also be a very harsh dose of reality if the population is generally immune and they aren’t.

There was very widespread enthusiasm for vaccines in the past due to polio and various other horrendous diseases. We just haven’t seen one in the living memory of a lot of those conspiracy theorists. The result has been the luxury of even being able to think like that about them!

A huge dose of reality on the way.

BetterWay

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Can you think of a better way?

There won't be 100% lockdown


I'm not sure what's worse; what this thread is becoming or Jacinta on Facebook

jimmycrackcorm

Gods Gift wrote: »

A factory in limerick is working 24hrs a day making masks. They export all over the world.

Nurse working on a respiratory ward that is the primary ward for non ICU coronavirus cases just told me this:
Their ward for in several boxes of masks a couple of days ago. Within two hours they had been stolen (staff and cleaners).
She said they have to use surgical masks from theatre instead which are useless because of the gaps.

It should be a serious criminal charges for stealing these from a hospital.

Hamsterchops

UK now 798 :eek:

flynnlives

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

That’s obnoxious. I spent the evening prepping classes and videos as usual and the day working with the students to the best of my ability with mostly my own equipment and while minding two kids of my own Like most I do my utmost for my students and quite frankly when I read things like that I don’t know why I bother because the public don’t give a flying **** what we do and never stop resenting us.

will ye lot ever quit your whinging!
You've a 6 month holiday ahead of yourselves with full pay!

gmisk

ThePopehimself wrote: »

History will judge that.

When we look back, people will know who did the right thing and who didn't.
You are right to name the Pharmacy.

I work in a large building near it, I will be telling everyone and will never darken it's door again believe me

Boggles

Spook_ie wrote: »

Their (UK) science advisor said so

https://www.ft.com/content/38a81588-6508-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

Paywalled. Can you quote the relevant bit?

Pseudonym121

Well, unfortunately those who didn’t take it very seriously before entered panic mode recently. In studies of how disasters work ( the US military have some really good studies on what happens in disasters… essentially we’re four missed meals away from the breakdown of law and order which is what was seen after Hurricane Katherina ) you’ll see there are three waves of preparation/panic. The first wave where the anxious and the rational who can see it coming prepare – that was up until last week – the second wave – which began yesterday and will last over the weekend --- the third wave which will begin when the number of deaths makes even those who are currently deluding themselves yield to the objective reality of the situation.

So, what else is going to happen in Ireland? I should make clear that anything I list here is something which can be derived from first principles. I don’t have direct knowledge of most of this stuff but I can extrapolate from the statistics and a couple of decades of working in the HSE. If I have direct knowledge of things then I won’t mention it here as that wouldn’t be appropriate until those things become public knowledge

Firstly, we need to define our terms because there’s lots of absolute BS being talked about here by people who don’t understand what the doctors mean when they say certain things. What most of you call severe illness is, at best, moderate to a doctor. Often it is mild. When doctors are talking about COVID-19 cases as mild, moderate and severe here’s what they really mean:

1. Mild: Doesn’t need hospitalisation. You may feel really sick, you may need home nebulisers, you may be on antibiotics. Doesn’t matter, if you don’t need hospital then you’re mild. Generally when people say they’re severely ill at home we don’t contradict them ( since they certainly feel very ill ) but in our minds you’re all mildly ill with varying levels of whining ;-). Doctors and nurses’ families will tell you how little sympathy they get from us when they tell us they’re sick. We’re the epitome of “If you aren’t hospitalised then you’re fine” even in general life most of the time ;-).

2. Moderate: One of the 10% who are hospitalised but don’t need ventilators. Some of those might still die but most will be just fine – albeit the interstitial lung disease may cause them problems in the medium to long term.

3. Severe: One of the 10% who need ventilation.

The caveat to this is that if we don’t flatten the peak of infection then many people will end up triaged into the “black tag” category and simply won’t be brought to hospital and left to die at home. With the actions the government took yesterday our odds of avoiding that are much better and the more we handwash, socially isolate etc the more we’ll lower it. This is everyone’s civic responsibility.

In mass casualty ethical triage it becomes incumbent upon doctors to not waste resources which could save one person on another who most likely won’t survive. Trying to save both frequently results in both being dead. So, in a mass casualty event the “black tag” category is for those who you only treat once everyone else is treated. The vast majority of those will die by the time you get to them. In the meantime you don’t waste antibiotics, ventilators or other meds on them. You prioritise those for people whom you believe you might be able to save.

For our purposes that’s all you need to know about mass triage except that in this the word ethical refers to it being unethical to waste resources on those who probably won’t live anyway. Right now in Italy their criteria for placing someone into the black tag category appear to be as follows:
a) Everyone over 60
b) Under 60 but with one of the following conditions:
a. Asthma,
b. COAD
c. Cancer
d. Heart Disease
e. CF
f. Diabetes etc
g. Basically any chronic illness.

That’s pretty stark and with the government’s steps and our own actions we can avoid reaching that position. If we are 2 weeks behind them and you assume doubling every 6 days then by socially isolating now we could cut our peak of cases to 25% of the per capita rate they have. That could be the difference between being able to care for most people properly ( 2% mortality – 100 infected with 2 dead ) and being so overwhelmed we have to do mass casualty ethical triage ( up to 10% mortality of 4 times the cases --- 400 infected with 40 dead ). So the maths points to the government’s steps being really powerful ( so long as we do our part --- yesterday wasn’t a high point in us all doing our part ).

So what happens next?
1. Ideally all pubs, restaurants etc closed. Literally give no-one anywhere to go except work, the shops and their homes. This will reduce the peak and that’ll save lives.

2. Use the hotels to house isolation cases returning from abroad with Gardai at the entrance to prevent visitors/escapes. Imprison the first few who break the cordon sanitaire pour encourager les autres.

3. Empty psychiatry units and what people refer to as bed blockers into other hotels which remain empty. Arrange for recalled nurses to care for them, use the hotel staff to feed them and clean the rooms and arrange for meds and oxygen bottles to be dropped off. These hotels should be kept COVID-19 free as much as possible. I estimate you could empty half the non-high dependency hospital beds in the country if you were really ruthless about this.

4. All medical facilities and resources which are currently being utilised to treat those who aren’t seriously ill will be emptied and repurposed. What does this mean?
a. Day Hospitals – those co-located with hospitals will be repurposed to moderate severity cases and staffed by recalled staff.
b. Day Wards – those are going to be repurposed as above
c. Out-patients attached to hospitals will be repurposed with beds brought into the rooms – as above.
d. Massive clearouts of in-patients in medical and surgical wards. Basically if you won’t die if you’re discharged you’ll be discharged.
e. Hospitals will be re-arranged so that a small portion is reserved for non-COVID patients where strict isolation of staff and patients will be observed ( frequent testing of staff at commencement and end of shift and refusal of entry to anyone with a temperature or any other symptom ).
f. The rest of the hospital will be reserved for COVID-19 cases. In these areas sick staff will be allowed to work until they either recover or become too unwell to work. So long as we only have one strain they won’t give anyone a superimposed infection so they should be used until they drop – this is correct and appropriate at this time.
g. All out-patient appointments replaced by telemedicine. Rather hilariously I think this will actually result in more rapid review than currently happens in some specialties as you can get through a lot more patients by phone than when they come in and want to get their time’s worth by going into details etc which don’t really impact on my decision-making process.
h. GP practices will be closed on a rolling bases as GPs are called in to replace A&E and hospital staff who go down with COVID-19/are told to isolate.
By doing all of the above ( and more ) we will be able to create a huge number of beds. The problem will be getting supplementary oxygen for everyone but I’m sure frantic measures to improve oxygen cylinder and oxygen production in general are being made.

5. Police initially and later army deployed to safeguard essential services:
a. Hospitals – preserving cordons sanitaire, preventing visitors etc. I see visitors are still being allowed. I expect this will cease except for terminal cases. Even then I would stop visitors but I don’t think Ireland as a society is ready for that step yet.
b. Supermarkets will have a heavier presence while the 2nd phase of panic lasts. By next week this should abate and they can be redeployed. You can expect to see more on the streets visibly to promote public confidence. They’ll have to go back when the third wave hits but that won’t last long.
c. I’d expect food delivery drivers to be replaced by Gardai/the army sooner rather than later. Tesco/Lidl/Supervalu home delivery services will become national priority services very rapidly. This is sensible as nothing will make people abandoning social distancing quicker than running out of something they think they need ( although this obsession with toilet paper is laughable, albeit based in psychology – people perceive bulky items as in greater scarcity because we don’t look at absolute numbers but volume of empty shelf space… This is one area where we can see our brains aren’t very evolved. We’re still cavepeople with pretensions rather than truly civilised.
d. Pharmacies will end up having some level of increased protection. People will get very pissed when they can’t get a 3 month or even a full month script filled. Initially they’ll just need Gardai on rapid response but in a few months you might find consolidation of pharmacies where one will open one week, another the other etc and a Garda will be posted at the open one during opening hours.
e. Public transport will have to continue as not everyone has cars but you can expect that as the drivers get sick they’ll either be prioritised for masks and/or some soldiers will be retasked to the routes. If they can’t drive the buses we may see army trucks doing the 16A bus route which makes this almost worth it as that thought just strikes me as hilarious --- but to be fair I’m pretty sleep deprived right now.

6. Public sector staff redeployed or sent home on paid child-minding furlough if in a non-essential clinical area. \Otherwise just doing their work by telephone ( although I’m not sure a physio can really get much of their job done by phone, for example ).


So, lots of change but, really, I’m the most positive I’ve been about this since I really dug into the research three weeks ago and ran the statistics about its spread and our capacity to cope with it unless we made drastic changes. We’ve made many drastic changes and while I think we should definitely simply impose a 14 day quarantine in hotels for ALL people entering the island of Ireland ( please don’t get into some debate about 32 vs 26+6 counties. This isn’t a time for that sort of thing, this is the time for an all-ireland plan to prevent the importation of infected people who can spark new clusters. The survivors can then return to arguing about the politics of it all. ). This shouldn’t be isolation at home, it should be isolation in chosen hotels enforced by the Gardai and imprisonment.

Believe me in a few weeks time a month in prison will be a scary prospect for people as prisons can go down very quickly once they get an index case. The prospect of being exposed in prison will be a far greater deterrent than the sentence.

Britain is having a very interesting experiment. They’ve abandoned the Taiwan/Singapore strategy of trying to catch it early and eradicate spread. Instead they’re going for a controlled rate of infection such that their health service doesn’t get overwhelmed and they can get to 60% of the population infected without ever running out of critical care beds. This means they are pretty much accepting 800,000 fatalities out of the 36 million who will get it (assuming 2% survival rate with tx). But once they hit 60% they should begin to get good benefits from herd immunity.

Clearly this implies that their models have shown them that if they don’t get herd immunity by October then when this really hits hard over the months of October to December they’d lose even more than that. This is population-level triage and a really interesting approach. It certainly has face validity but I don’t think that it will be acceptable socially by the population. This is why they are saying that their strategy doesn’t mean accepting a 60% spread when actually, in reality, that’s the whole point of the strategy – the herd immunity that % of infections will grant the rest of the population come October PLUS the fact that if only 40% can get infected in those three months your peak will be lower and thus you’ll keep the death rate closer to 2% than the 10% you’ll get if the health service gets overwhelmed.

We’ll only know who was right in January 2021…. Epidemiologically I think their approach is probably right theoretically. In practice though I doubt it will work. They’ve basically given up on containment and are doing the equivalent of a controlled burn – but with humans. I wonder how the British population will react when this reality hits home. I think the Irish approach will have a much better chance of maintaining social cohesion.

It is impossible to read this thread in full anymore given other commitments. If you want a reply to a point or question could you please PM me and I’ll do my best to reply as I have time.

If you don’t like any extrapolations above then that’s fine. Feel free to state your own. But, the facts quoted (Italian triage categories etc ) are the facts, you have the right to dislike them, not pretend they don’t exist.

The great news is we can avoid the Italian situation and the coming Spanish and American situation ( and, sadly, probably the coming British situation given their choices ) by dint of the government actions and each of us doing social isolation and all the hygiene advice as much as possible. So, bizarelly given the news, I think things are looking up for the first time in 3 weeks. I'm certainly a lot more optimistic now.

Ironicname

Hamsterchops wrote:

UK now 798

Jesus. From what?

Tacitus Kilgore

BetterWay wrote: »

There won't be 100% lockdown


I'm not sure what's worse; what this thread is becoming or Jacinta on Facebook

I was just making a joke from your username tbh...