Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Pseudonym121

BetterWay wrote: »

Excellent post. But this part worries me

It shouldn't. There are no big conspiracies here. I just am speaking as an individual who happens to be a doctor and not an HSE or government representative. I started speaking out here a couple of weeks ago because it wasn't being communicated how serious it was and people weren't being given the opportunity to prepare in time. I felt an ethical and moral obligation to speak out on a personal level, informed by my training and clinical experience.

BUT I maintained a separation in roles between me as an individual and my HSE role as a Consultant and even up till now didn't say things which I could only know through my role.

I've always spoken from first principles and my understanding of statistics, epidemiology and pandemics, not from any knowledge of HSE actions.

What I will say is they're now taking it very seriously and I'm much, much more optimistic than I was 2 weeks ago... but no, none of you have the right to know the detailed preparations until they are officially publicly released and I won't break that... but they're all going in very much the right direction and if they were doing this 2 weeks ago I'd never have spoken up.

TDLR: Chill, it is all going in very much the right direction, there are no conspiracies.

Spook_ie

Boggles wrote: »

Paywalled. Can you quote the relevant bit?

Sorry no but it's basically the same as

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-millions-of-britons-will-need-to-contract-covid-19-for-herd-immunity-11956793

Kermit.de.frog

99 cases on the island of Ireland now.

We'll be well past 100 this evening.

completedit

This daily reporting of cases is pure nonsense. The virus is here. We know that.

Injuryprone

Where Boris' strategy falls down and something which seems to be missed in the current analysis is that the quoted 1% mortality rate is where the health system manages somewhat.

Looking at the numbers in Italy where the health system has been overrun, out of 15+k cases they've over 1k deaths which is over 6.5% and there's also only 1250 or so recovered so you could say out of the concluded cases, the death rate is near 50%!

I also think that those saying that Boris is just following his advisors advice are just wrong. What I think would more likely have happened is that the advisors would have given the politicians a few options of ways to go and Boris chose to go this way so they all have to roll with it. It's quite obvious that nearly all of the other countries have chosen the other option.

I understand there some sort of teleconference this evening for European leaders. I'd say unless the UK falls into line, travel from the UK should be cut off

is_that_so

Boggles wrote: »

Do you have "look" fearful to be fearful?

They are humans not comics.

And yet this gem is no evidence that they are "fearful". Heard of a couple I know and he, at 79, reckons that she, at 75, is going to get it first because she ticks more risk boxes! Both are in decent health BTW.

Ardillaun

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

74 new cases in Brazil.

Including, possibly, someone who met Trump recently.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/12/trudeau-trump-coronavirus-self-quarantine-response/

Apparently, a second test is awaited on the Brazilian President.

Phibsboro

flynnlives wrote: »

hes not a real doctor.

He actually doesn't claim to be, he is a retired medical educator. All he does in these videos is summarise the current situation and suggest basic approaches that people (and governments) should be following. Nothing outrageous or alarmist. This is About from YouTube:

My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focured on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Martina1991

smelly sock wrote: »

Lack of testing in Ireland only has our numbers as low as they are.

I find it funny that our journalists and commentators slag off Trump for his claims on the availability of testing when it's nearly impossible to get one over here.

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

Scotty #

Phibsboro wrote: »

This lad is actually on the ball, definitely worth a listen.

He's just reiterating what every media outlet has already stated and advised.

Popoutman

dunlop22 wrote: »

There’s reports of flights stopping from Monday. I was talking to someone who works in the airport and she said they were told.

I've also heard this, but thirdhand from safety staff in Shannon Airport.
Do we have any further info on this one?

munsterlegend

Martina1991 wrote: »

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

They are doing it outside of Dublin lab now as well. In cork anyway and I think a few other places.

is_that_so

Martina1991 wrote: »

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

That is being addressed in the next week or so I believe.

otnomart

Unbelievable:
Paris is looking for volunteers to run the polls at the local elections.
Good luck with that !
https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/coronavirus-craignant-de-manquer-d-assesseurs-la-mairie-de-paris-lance-un-appel-aux-volontaires-1874492.html

Hector Savage

completedit wrote: »

This daily reporting of cases is pure nonsense. The virus is here. We know that.

Yep just causes more fear and panic, stress , anxiety ... which will be more damaging long term.

redarmy

There are now 99 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the island of Ireland, with the 9 new cases reported now in Northern Ireland.

Pseudonym121

is_that_so wrote: »

Out in the streets today saw and met a fair few elderly. They really didn't look that fearful at all.

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

gmisk

Phibsboro wrote: »

He actually doesn't claim to be, he is a retired medical educator. All he does in these videos is summarise the current situation and suggest basic approaches that people (and governments) should be following. Nothing outrageous or alarmist. This is About from YouTube:

My name is John Campbell and I am a retired Nurse Teacher and A and E nurse based in England. I also do some teaching in Asia and Africa when time permits. These videos are to help students to learn the background to all forms of health care. My PhD focured on the development of open learning resources for nurses nationally and internationally.

Well do you not think it is a bit misleading going by the name of Dr John? His PHD is in totally non relevant area...

Cody montana

cravings wrote: »

bolsonaro has been tested... not tested positive

You sure about that?

“Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus days after Trump meeting”

Professor Moriarty

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

It shouldn't. There are no big conspiracies here. I just am speaking as an individual who happens to be a doctor and not an HSE or government representative. I started speaking out here a couple of weeks ago because it wasn't being communicated how serious it was and people weren't being given the opportunity to prepare in time. I felt an ethical and moral obligation to speak out on a personal level, informed by my training and clinical experience.

BUT I maintained a separation in roles between me as an individual and my HSE role as a Consultant and even up till now didn't say things which I could only know through my role.

I've always spoken from first principles and my understanding of statistics, epidemiology and pandemics, not from any knowledge of HSE actions.

What I will say is they're now taking it very seriously and I'm much, much more optimistic than I was 2 weeks ago... but no, none of you have the right to know the detailed preparations until they are officially publicly released and I won't break that... but they're all going in very much the right direction and if they were doing this 2 weeks ago I'd never have spoken up.

TDLR: Chill, it is all going in very much the right direction, there are no conspiracies.

Striking the right balance ethically and morally.

Squeaksoutloud

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yeah but he isn't wrong. In Ireland I'd be astounded if we had less than 700 infected people today. The criteria for doing a test were very strict. They'll be loosened going forward as more testing kits become available but until we do widespread testing our confirmed numbers will always be much less than the real number of infected.... and then at a certain point we'll move to symptomatic diagnosis ( where we diagnose on the basis of symptoms instead of on the basis of a confirmed test ). When community spread is really ramped up you'll find that community testing will stop and the testing kits will be diverted to hospitals to confirm need for admission and to test staff so we can keep the non-COVID portions of hospitals free from staff with COVID-19.

To be fair though the figures in all of Europe are much higher than are being reported because nowhere has enough testing kits so this isn't a case of government incompetence. This is simply what happens when you get a fast-moving epi/pandemic.

All of this focus on daily confirmed infections is really missing the point. What matters is that there is community spread and that we need to socially distance/isolate, handwash etc. Whether we have 70 cases or 700 we have to take the same steps.

So when you state 10% need ICU care we are talking about 10% of confirmed cases. If we only confirming 10% of actual infections then reality is only 1% of people will need intensive care. I was taking the infected figures and percentages from Italy as gospel until yesterday when it became apparent there was a hell of a lot more out there than reported cases...

youreadthat

Injuryprone wrote: »

Where Boris' strategy falls down and something which seems to be missed in the current analysis is that the quoted 1% mortality rate is where the health system manages somewhat.

Looking at the numbers in Italy where the health system has been overrun, out of 15+k cases they've over 1k deaths which is over 6.5% and there's also only 1250 or so recovered so you could say out of the concluded cases, the death rate is near 50%!

I also think that those saying that Boris is just following his advisors advice are just wrong. What I think would more likely have happened is that the advisors would have given the politicians a few options of ways to go and Boris chose to go this way so they all have to roll with it. It's quite obvious that nearly all of the other countries have chosen the other option.

I understand there some sort of teleconference this evening for European leaders. I'd say unless the UK falls into line, travel from the UK should be cut off

Get this genius on the case BoJo.

Pseudonym121

facehugger99 wrote: »

Paddy doesn't do lock-down.

We are looking at the absolute worst-case now. All the economic destruction of the lock-down - school closures and losses in productivity and revenues - combined with the same rate of infection the UK are going to get.

We'll end up in the same place as the UK, with a decent herd immunity, but with a devastated economy.

Still, the social media brigade, braying for a lock-down, will be kept happy so the politicians will view it as a good result.

We aren't looking at the absolute worst-case scenario now. In fact we're looking at a much improved scenario with a lower absolute number of deaths ( and lower death rate ) compared to not having the lockdown.

Yes there will be economic damage but believe me this will happen anyways because this isn't a 3 month issue, this is a 12 month issue and then a seasonal issue for the rest of our lives.

Your post is not factually correct and so incorrect as to be harmful.

is_that_so

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

Eh, Ok, I've no idea what this means but I'm happy you do.

Phibsboro

Cody montana wrote: »

You sure about that?

“Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus days after Trump meeting”

His son has now said that in fact there was only an initial positive test and they are waiting on a second, definitive test.

igCorcaigh

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

Tacitus Kilgore

igCorcaigh wrote: »

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

same time as every other day I would guess, just before 6

Martina1991

Salthillprom wrote: »

It's impossible to get tested. My son has come down with an uncontrollable fever and we live in an area with a number of confirmed cases. He is coughing and wheezing like there's no tomorrow. He isn't asthmatic or anything. I've rang the HSE three times since yesterday and they are saying that they are ONLY testing people who have been in contact with a confirmed case. However, we were with ppl who had come from locked down areas of different countries last weekend. I've phoned them and they're well but I've a horrible feeling that this isn't just a normal cold. Given a number of people in our community are in hospital with Covid-19, it's not unreasonable to think he possibly came into contact with them somewhere at some stage. We live in a close knit area.

If anyone presents to A&E with respiratory symptoms you can be tested even with no recent travel history. This has been reported by the Irish Times.

Now is probably the best time to go with EDs being very quiet.

Popoutman

facehugger99 wrote: »

In my experience it's the lads in their 20's/30's that are the biggest fear-mongers. The older generation are far too sensible to buy into the hysteria being generated online.

It's not hysteria in the main part. Yes, there are some that are over-hyping, but there are unfortunately more in the country that are refusing (either consciously or otherwise) to accept that things are *not* all rosy for the next few months, and whose refusal to plan and work with the rest of the community to slow the spread will effectively lead to a worse set of circumstances than otherwise would have happened.

Unless you have actual knowledge that disputes the experts in the field, please stop trying to downplay the realities of this situation. It's not helping anyone.

is_that_so

igCorcaigh wrote: »

When are they releasing today's numbers though?

It's been 6-6.30 all this week so I guess it will be the same.