Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

is_that_so

Popoutman wrote: »

It's not hysteria in the main part. Yes, there are some that are over-hyping, but there are unfortunately more in the country that are refusing (either consciously or otherwise) to accept that things are *not* all rosy for the next few months, and whose refusal to plan and work with the rest of the community to slow the spread will effectively lead to a worse set of circumstances than otherwise would have happened.

Unless you have actual knowledge that disputes the experts in the field, please stop trying to downplay the realities of this situation. It's not helping anyone.

Do you have actual examples of people "refusing" to accept things? Saying you don't think it'll get so bad is not the same thing.

igCorcaigh

WHO briefing

https://youtu.be/_djqmmc8ZsI

Call Me Jimmy

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Don't even know what to think about this.

I mean, yes, this is how I think, as someone with almost lifelong OCD. I have barely ventured outside over the past week, except when I've been forced to work. My mental state is really, incredibly poor, though. I've been invited to have a drink in a beer garden in a quiet pub and am considering it. Would disinfect and/or wash hands after handling the glass and be careful not to touch my face and all that.

It's hard to find a balance between trying to stay safe and not going completely insane.

Not a go at you personally but more of a rant:

It's your duty to isolate. Unless you're working or have an emergency, nobody should be meeting up with anyone.

We have a couple weeks window before our health system is overrun and people can't just recognise what's going on? Countries are shutting down!

If everyone thinks 'ah sure I'll just meet up here or there, I'll keep my eyes peeled for the virus' then it will equate to more chaos in our health system.

The government would tell every single person in the country to stay inside if it was feasible and vital services could be maintained. Everyone should be inside doing their duty to curb the peak.

cloudatlas

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They become immune for this years strain only. Without a vaccine the only way to eliminate it is a total wipeout like the Chinese are attempting and they are almost there. Their new cases are less than our own despite having 300 times the population. A couple of weeks from now new cases there will be counted on one hand. At that stage it becomes manageable with targeted containments.

Its impossible in an epidemic to stop the spread to the at risk group in the UK. The grandparents mind kids anyways such as school holidays like Easter and Summer. And the kids will spread it to them in general. If it becomes endemic the chances of spread to at risk rises hugely. And if they survive this years strain, they may not next years one. So you end up with grandparents permanently isolated at home. And nursing homes permanently closed off.

And then you have the question of vulnerable patients in hospital. How are they supposed to attend hospital appointments if they risk picking up CV?

UK citizens will also be banned permanently from most countries in the world who are trying to control the spread. And no tourists will go to the UK for fear of picking it up.

The UK government haven't thought this through.

The UK government have thought this through they are advised by a Scientific advisory body which contains professors from the top universities in the U.k. they agree with the approach taken. That youtube guy with the phd that everyone keeps posting didn't criticise it either. There is a good article here explaining why they've taken these measures https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...why-it-gave-it

Obviously they don't have the same info you have about the next strain that is arriving next year.

So I decided to spend less time on this thread and converse with people in the real world. I can now confirm that they are more cray cray than we are. So I’m back.

Yesterday morning I was told that a family with a health professional in their family had “da virus”. In the last 36 hours who that is has moved from one doctor to another and it’s alternating between them all now.

I’ve now been told I’m in a red zone. I dunno what that means but the army is apparently coming to swab us all. Finner camp is being prepared as I type.

Definitely time to hibernate and take ChikiChiki’s lead and buy a guitar and teach myself to play.

Gynoid

https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1238385164788457473?s=19

Vivid animation of figures outside China over time.

is_that_so

First case confirmed in Venezuela. Could be problematic for them.

s7ryf3925pivug

igCorcaigh wrote: »

WHO briefing

https://youtu.be/_djqmmc8ZsI

Empty desks and it started streaming 28 min ago. Is it over?

Edit: No you can see it from the start, and they're still setting up.

Pseudonym121

Martina1991 wrote: »

The CDC have around 75,000 test kits, for a US population of 327 million people. Many of those can't afford healthcare and testing is costing them thousands.

We have a population of 4.8m and can test on a continuous basis, but only at one laboratory. Our limitations are staff and facilities.

You can't compare the 2.

Very incorrect information. American is horrendously laggardly in terms of testing. I won't reveal our per capita testing numbers as that's information I wouldn't know outside of my role but America has tested 26 people per million.

We are roughly on a par with the UK. Here's the picture which is relevant to this point.

Sorry for the picture size etc. I'm better with typing than posting on web fora clearly.

tobefrank321

The Blarney Stone kissing is madness, no different to the guy in Iran licking the gates of a religious shrine.

This is how coronavirus spreads.

Bit cynical

Scotty # wrote: »

lol.... he jumped from x10 to x20 there without a second thought.

Appropriate if it reflects the uncertainty in the numbers.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

is_that_so wrote: »

It's been 6-6.30 all this week so I guess it will be the same.

They're not releasing today's numbers then, though. They're releasing the ones they got around to (subject to the maximum testing capacity) which were submitted before 10am on Wednesday.

Brilliant post here:

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

<snip>

Bleak picture here but reality is very sad right now. Many lucky survivors in this will be forced to take a look at life and appreciate what they have.

Best of luck to you, thanks always for the informative updates and I hope we get the opportunity to catch up in 2021

Donald Trump

Cody montana wrote: »

You sure about that?

“Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus days after Trump meeting”

This was not what I meant when I told Melania that I preferred brazilians

CrabRevolution

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Blarney Stone kissing is madness, no different to the guy in Iran licking the gates of a religious shrine.

This is how coronavirus spreads.

I won't say it doesn't happen but I've never heard of anyone Irish ever kissing the Blarney stone, or even wanting to.

Tacitus Kilgore

Donald Trump wrote: »

This was not what I meant when I told Melania that I preferred brazilians

yer in a bit of bother now hoss

cnocbui

is_that_so wrote: »

Eh, Ok, I've no idea what this means but I'm happy you do.

They are walking in front of a speeding bus, even though the driver has his hand on the horn. AKA: collecting a Darwin award.

Gentleman Off The Pitch

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well, unfortunately those who didn’t take it very seriously before entered panic mode recently. ....

For our purposes that’s all you need to know about mass triage except that in this the word ethical refers to it being unethical to waste resources on those who probably won’t live anyway. Right now in Italy their criteria for placing someone into the black tag category appear to be as follows:
a) Everyone over 60
b) Under 60 but with one of the following conditions:
a. Asthma,
b. COAD
c. Cancer
d. Heart Disease
e. CF
f. Diabetes etc
g. Basically any chronic illness.....

Nearly half a million people in Ireland suffer with asthma of some severity. I've seen it repeated in many articles online that asthma sufferers are at risk of developing more severe symptoms, which since it is a respiratory condition makes sense, but I wonder are there findings from China, Italy and elsewhere that backs this up

tommythecat

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

We aren't looking at the absolute worst-case scenario now. In fact we're looking at a much improved scenario with a lower absolute number of deaths ( and lower death rate ) compared to not having the lockdown.

Yes there will be economic damage but believe me this will happen anyways because this isn't a 3 month issue, this is a 12 month issue and then a seasonal issue for the rest of our lives.

Your post is not factually correct and so incorrect as to be harmful.

Question for you. You say it will return year on year so does UKs herd immunity plan work in that scenario?

Donald Trump

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

yer in a bit of bother now hoss

https://revistaforum.com.br/noticias/bolsonaro-pode-ter-coronavirus-wajngarten-testa-positivo/

Pseudonym121

gmisk wrote: »

Well do you not think it is a bit misleading going by the name of Dr John? His PHD is in totally non relevant area...

I don't think that's misleading. He doesn't appear to be hiding who is and what his qualifications are. E.g. I'm not a virologist or infectious disease consultant ( and no, I won't say what specialty I'm in. I have no interest in nutters on here being able to identify me and my family. ) but I've said enough about what my background is for people to decide themselves whether I'm full of sh!t or not.... plus at this stage people can go back a fortnight and see what I posted and was told I was a scaremongering hystrionic for and compare it to what actually has happened and what people are now considering as "normal". Then they can go and figure out whether I'm what I say I am or a nutjob.

You can do the same for this guy so read up on him and make your own informed decision based on his track record. I don't agree with everything he says by any stretch but it falls within the parameters of "differences in viewpoint and extrapolation" rather than him being a shyster.

s7ryf3925pivug

Gentleman Off The Pitch wrote: »

Nearly half a million people in Ireland suffer with asthma of some severity. I've seen it repeated in many articles online that asthma sufferers are at risk of developing more severe symptoms, which since it is a respiratory condition makes sense, but I wonder are there findings from China, Italy and elsewhere that backs this up

They have statistics of death rates among people with different chronic conditions. One of the categories was something like chronic lung disease and had a death rate of about 6%. I took that as including asthma.

Popoutman

is_that_so wrote: »

Do you have actual examples of people "refusing" to accept things? Saying you don't think it'll get so bad is not the same thing.

In personal life, yes. I've had people I've been talking with go through the spectrum of "It's only in China, and won't get to us here", then "It's not that bad, won't be a problem", through to "Ah sure it's only the same as the flu, I'm not bothered", to "Ah it's only affecting the elderly and I'm young so I'm fine", to "Only a few percent need to go to hospital with it".

I've managed to persuade some of them at least to comprehend the numbers that a doubling every 6 days means a lot of problems in a month or two when the capacity of the healthcare systems are reached. They then start to understand that even though the virus tend not to affect the kids, I say to them "Imagine that your kid gets a high fever and needs medical attention, and you can't get the medical care you expect because every doctor is fighting for someone's life in a temporary ICU somewhere due to the numbers of the sick, how do you feel then?" Once I can frame it in ways that show them the risk to themselves and their family both young and old, they begin to get it.

Of course I had some friends that are choosing to not handwash and happy to go to Cheltnham without a care, and who intend to go and visit their elderly family afterwards.

There's a wonderful Despair.com poster about meetings, where "None of us is as dumb as all of us" and that seems to be true with this. I really hope enough people get their thumbs out of their asses and start to help slow things down.

Adiboo

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

and then a seasonal issue for the rest of our lives.

The potential vaccine will need to be given annually?

otnomart

This was published on the British Medical Journal on 31 January
Coronavirus shows how UK must act quickly before being shut out of Europe’s health protection systems

"The case in Germany is especially worrying as it was in someone who had not travelled to China but who had been in contact with someone who had. Unprecedented measures, including lockdowns of large cities in China and widespread flight cancellations, are being adopted."

"There are ways for countries outside the EU to engage with its structures and processes, as is the case with Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein.
But this engagement requires that the country in question agrees to participate in the single market or at least commits to close alignment with it.
This would require that it adopts legislation of “equivalent effect” to that in the EU, which would again include rules on data protection.
The UK has made it clear that it will not be a “rule taker,” a position that would seem to close off these opportunities, even though doing so poses a threat to itself and to other countries"

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m400

tina1040

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Ireland barely 50 cases and we re shutting down

I dont get it, Ive lived through the troubles, 2 gulf wars, afghanistan, the Ukraine, scores of african conflicts and not to mention the balkans. And not a bother till now, pansies

You can't count up the number of people who have if only those tested can be counted. There are more who have symptoms but not tested.

makeandcreate

Salthillprom wrote: »

It's impossible to get tested. My son has come down with an uncontrollable fever and we live in an area with a number of confirmed cases. He is coughing and wheezing like there's no tomorrow. He isn't asthmatic or anything. I've rang the HSE three times since yesterday and they are saying that they are ONLY testing people who have been in contact with a confirmed case. However, we were with ppl who had come from locked down areas of different countries last weekend. I've phoned them and they're well but I've a horrible feeling that this isn't just a normal cold. Given a number of people in our community are in hospital with Covid-19, it's not unreasonable to think he possibly came into contact with them somewhere at some stage. We live in a close knit area.

Just had pretty much the same info from the HSE - I have symptoms as does my DD - her school was quarantined last week due to a class being in contact with one of the Clare cluster patients. I'm immuno compromised as well. Just told to self isolate and call an ambulance if develop serious breathing difficulties. No mention of a test.

igCorcaigh

Belen Uneven Snub-nosed wrote: »

Empty desks and it started streaming 28 min ago. Is it over?

Edit: No you can see it from the start, and they're still setting up.

They always take forever to start!

Pseudonym121

is_that_so wrote: »

Eh, Ok, I've no idea what this means but I'm happy you do.

It is a nice way of saying that if they want to expose themselves to a virus which will kill them then that's natural selection in action.

Although it isn't really because at that age they've already bred and thus passed on both their genes and their various other neuroses through both nature and nurture.

It was just me amusing myself by commenting in an abstruse manner. I have to find enjoyment where I can these days.

yourdeadwright

So we are on lockdown ,
England are not ,

Has everyone forgot Northern Ireland is only up the road
Dublin is close to there than it is to Cork

So we will be basically pissing in the wind if we are on lockdown and they are not ,

Westernyelp

Pseudonym121 wrote:

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

Yikes!