Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

fits

Pseudonym 121. Thank you for your posts. It has helped me prepare my family.

( although I confess I was losing sleep over this in january).

ACitizenErased

jarvis wrote: »

Has anyone seen Northern Ireland figures today? What was it? I checked the online tracker earlier and UK was in the teens. Was this NI? UK is now 200+ for the day which is usually the full UK number. I’m interested to see how NI numbers are today.

Also are our number 2 days behind?

Think NI reported 9 new cases today.

adam88

We thought China’s numbers were bad. The numbers are starting to explode

ACitizenErased

roosterman71 wrote: »

If the Brazilian boss has the virus, and there's a good chance Donald has picked it up, how is Leo?

Brazilian President tested negative.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1238491166003298305

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/Blarney_Castle/status/1238491734235140097?s=20

tobefrank321

cloudatlas wrote: »

The U.K government are going to introduce measures close work places etc., but not yet. One of the professors who is advising the government is also advising his place of work a university and they haven't shut down yet either. what a total moron! or he wants poor people to die! Not sure which one you want to go for.

How long should Ireland quarantine for, until they find the vaccine is it?

They can wallow in their pariah state status when cv is endemic year in year out. Even NI will have imposed travel restrictions to the UK mainland by that stage.

is_that_so

roosterman71 wrote: »

If the Brazilian boss has the virus, and there's a good chance Donald has picked it up, how is Leo?

Bolsonaro tested negative.

Pseudonym121

tommythecat wrote: »

Question for you. You say it will return year on year so does UKs herd immunity plan work in that scenario?

Complex answer to what appears to be a simple question:

Let's call what we have now COVID-19. The 60% immunity will apply to COVID-19. The British plan appears to be to allow it to infect 60% of their population by October. You could expect a huge spike in death rates from October to December ( this is the pattern Spanish Flu followed ).

Their gamble is that by having a controlled rate of infection through September with them increasing and decreasing restrictions ( kind of like stepping on the brake in a car ) in order to improve the economy ( decreased restrictions ) or decreasing the rate of infection ( increased restrictions ) they can let it spread without ever overwhelming the NHS critical care capacity ( which would cause a spike from 2% mortality to 10% mortality ) and then by the time October comes when this could spread like wildfire and utterly overwhelm the NHS killing multiples of the number who die between now and September they'll have enough herd immunity to prevent that.

You can also tell that their advice is that there won't be any meaningful vaccine ( or in sufficient numbers anyway ) by then as this plan only makes sense if they're sure there won't be one.

Theoretically it could work. it is also VERY audacious and if it works they could come out of this very well... To be fair you have to bear in mind that very well both economically and socially in this situation is defined as somewhere between 400,000 to 800,000 dead over the next year in a moderate case scenario so very well is definitely open to interpretation.

If they're wrong though then they'll have conducted a controlled burn of their population and allowed more to die than countries which severely restrict do.

As I said, personally, I think the Irish solution is superior and will work better in the real world. But we'll only know in January 2021 which was right.

Forget Brexit, when they write Boris Johnson's biographies this is what they'll focus on.


With all that said when COVID-21, 22 etc roll around the best defence will be vaccines. I think they're assuming very pessimistic things about vaccine production and availability. Their plan just doesn't make sense to me unless theyre being VERY pessimistic about vaccine production because you've got to assume that, as this is a coronavirus, it will generate quite different yearly strains. If the strains were very similar the herd immunity would work but I just don't believe that the '21 strain of this is going to be similar enough for herd immunity to work.

The British advisors clearly believe differently? Who is right? We'll find out in October 2021.

Welcome to the frustrating world of real world medicine. In the real world you make life and death decisions without knowing if they're the right ones. That is why it is such a tough job emotionally. Imagine how upset you'd be if you realise that despite your best efforts you chose the wrong option.

If these advisers get it wrong they'll be the most hated men in the UK in 18 months time. I wouldn't be surprised to hear they've committed suicide if they're wrong about this. it is all pretty high stakes and sobering

fritzelly

How long does it take them to sort the sound out???

Inquitus

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Brazilian President tested negative.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1238491166003298305

Can't trust that for shíte unfortunately, lets put him down as a maybe.

J Mysterio

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

the NI number is completely irrelevant.

Why would you think that

skimpydoo

I am doing a live Covid-19 music special live from a radio station broadcasting out of Philidelphia. WXVU Villanova Radio which you can get on various radio apps on your phone. I will be mentioning this Boards.ie thread.

fritzelly

WHO pandemic fund

EARLIEST REPORTING DATE OF WHETHER ALL BOND TRIGGER CRITERIA MET IS APRIL 9.

Only people this fund helps is those playing the markets

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/Vallmeister/status/1238491042179158016?s=20

Christy42

dougm1970 wrote: »

no more than if we were a european landlocked country.

It varies from border to border but the NI one can't be shut. It would take a massive effort to even try and shut it. We would fail and remove resources from elsewhere for little benefit. This isn't an economic concern. It would take away resources from the supply lines getting people food/medicine and help costing lives.

LadyMayBelle

I'm getting frustrated at a few people lately. My parent is 60, insists they won't get the virus but is heeding some of my advise to take a sensible approach to being careful. BUT I've been told that the parents of the kids she minds have asked her to continue while they work from home. She's said she will go to their house and mind them there...their own granny is nearly 70 so wont be caring for them...but I think this is absolutely nuts. We had her over today to see their grandchild and tbh I think we won't have another visit. I think when people heat the word grandparents they forgot some grandparents are in their 50s. Any one have any tips for getting thru to people?!

We have been preparing since early Feb and have gotten a bit of slagging for this but now what was predicted, is happening.

Spook_ie

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No they haven't thought it through.

They are hoping for this to become slowly endemic in the population.

Do you honestly think other countries will keep flights, borders, tourism and general travel open with a county where a potentially lethal virus like coronavirus is endemic? Of course they won't. Its the next logical step which they haven't thought about.

Look at how practically every country in the world has shut down travel to and from Italy. The UK will be next to suffer this treatment because of their approach.

Basic common sense would make anyone recognise how badly wrong these so called experts have got it. Monumentally wrong.

But the virus is likely to be endemic world wide anyway, isn't that the norm after something goes pandemic?

Squeaksoutloud

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

2% of "confirmed cases" die. Since a lot of cases are unconfirmed we can expect the death rate to be less than 2% of the total number infected BUT that all goes out of the window if the health services get overwhelmed and 10% of confirmed cases die due to lack of ventilators.

It all gets very complex and if there's interest I could explain the various assumptions which would set upper and lower bounds in another long post but, bottom line, it is quite reasonable to say that we are facing 5.5million x 60% infection rate = 3.3 million x 2% death rate = 66,000 dead over the next year.

If we isolate really well we can push that down. If we can spread the infections over 12 months instead of 3 then we'll push it down even more etc etc. If we're idiots then we can push it up above 66,000

If we assume we are truly morons then we can push the death rate to terrifying levels. But so far we're not being utter morons ;-). Let's try to push this to the "we're actually clever at a population level" and we could, conceivably, get this below 5,000 dead in the next year. That would be a FANTASTIC result at this stage.... I'm assuming no proper vaccine in October for these numbers. If we can get a safe vaccine by then then we can push it even lower.

Thanks that explains a lot to me. I am involved in some of the emergency planning and it is promising to see how things have really been upped in the past week and proud of the approach currently being taken. I am too more hopeful than a few days ago.

cj maxx

"Europe is now the epicenter of COVID19" who head says

Burts Bee

Just wondering. Kids are off school but am taking them out walking and hiking. No contact with others. That's OK, right?

1800_Ladladlad

blade1 wrote: »

Back from Tesco and while quite busy most things I wanted I got.
They were out of kittensoft toilet paper though.
Took home a 4 pack of Tesco own brand.
Hope there won't be too much traffic down Brown Street or I'll have the arse torn off myself!

Hold on. You'll settle for tesco own brand?? I dont think Iv ever been able to afford 9 rolls of kitten soft. I need to reevaluate my situation

ACitizenErased

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Vallmeister/status/1238491042179158016?s=20

The catch is you have to be referred. Otherwise a great idea.

wonski

[Deleted User] wrote: »

My company are still saying the office is open normal hours and we are expected for now at least to come to work.
I imagine lots of other companies are the same. Very reluctant to let people stay home.

Pretty sure if you ask them they might let you take time off.

We are offered this, but nobody is going to take it.

Of course it comes out of annual leave or just unpaid leave.

No company is going to pay you to close the business unless it is necessary.

Akrasia

Does anyone have any source for excess mortality in the worst hit regions for COVID 19?

I mean how many extra deaths are recorded from all causes where Coronavirus has reached epidemic proportions?

We're getting figures for patients who have died from coronavirus, how many people with other illnesses have died because the hospitals were overcrowded, stroke victims, heart attacks, car accidents etc...

fifth

Martina1991 wrote: »

If anyone presents to A&E with respiratory symptoms you can be tested even with no recent travel history. This has been reported by the Irish Times.

Now is probably the best time to go with EDs being very quiet.

With A&E maybe but called my GP and said they could not test me despite having symptoms. Because I haven't travelled or been in contact with an infected person.

crossman47

Burts Bee wrote: »

Just wondering. Kids are off school but am taking them out walking and hiking. No contact with others. That's OK, right?

Of course

spookwoman

LadyMayBelle wrote: »

I'm getting frustrated at a few people lately. My parent is 60, insists they won't get the virus but is heeding my advise to take a sensible approach to being careful BUT I've been told that the parents of the kids she minds have asked her to continue while they work from home. She's said she will go to their house and mind them there...their own granny is nearly 70 so wont be caring for them ...but I think this is absolutely nuts. We had them over today to see their grandchild and tbh I think we won't have another visit. I think when people heat the word grandparents they forgot some grandparents are in their 50s. Any one have any tips for getting thru to people?!

We have been preparing since early Feb and have gotten a bit of slagging for this but now what was predicted, is happening.

Those parents are being selfish getting your ma to come in

Quantum Erasure

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yes, they are self-selecting themselves into a particular cohort. This is how natural selection works.

no, no it's not

wakka12

cjmc wrote: »

"Europe is now the epicenter of COVID19" who head says

Thats a fairly large epicentre..just an entire continent

greenfield21

cjmc wrote: »

"Europe is now the epicenter of COVID19" who head says

Yeah and people giving out about trump stopping flights.