Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Pseudonym121

Gentleman Off The Pitch wrote: »

Nearly half a million people in Ireland suffer with asthma of some severity. I've seen it repeated in many articles online that asthma sufferers are at risk of developing more severe symptoms, which since it is a respiratory condition makes sense, but I wonder are there findings from China, Italy and elsewhere that backs this up

I'm just talking about how they're triaging in Italy.

igCorcaigh

They'd really want to sort out the audio issues.

Pseudonym121

Adiboo wrote: »

The potential vaccine will need to be given annually?

Potentially just like the flu vaccine is.

Donald Trump

Don't mind Bolsonaro.

Second fella from right is confirmed corona victim. Photo taken a few days ago in Mar-a-Largo

Ardillaun

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Very incorrect information. American is horrendously laggardly in terms of testing. I won't reveal our per capita testing numbers as that's information I wouldn't know outside of my role but America has tested 26 people per million.

We are roughly on a par with the UK. Here's the picture which is relevant to this point.

Sorry for the picture size etc. I'm better with typing than posting on web fora clearly.

It’s very good news to hear we are up with the UK. They’ve done a good job so far.

BloodBath

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

2% of "confirmed cases" die. Since a lot of cases are unconfirmed we can expect the death rate to be less than 2% of the total number infected BUT that all goes out of the window if the health services get overwhelmed and 10% of confirmed cases die due to lack of ventilators.

It all gets very complex and if there's interest I could explain the various assumptions which would set upper and lower bounds in another long post but, bottom line, it is quite reasonable to say that we are facing 5.5million x 60% infection rate = 3.3 million x 2% death rate = 66,000 dead over the next year.

If we isolate really well we can push that down. If we can spread the infections over 12 months instead of 3 then we'll push it down even more etc etc. If we're idiots then we can push it up above 66,000

If we assume we are truly morons then we can push the death rate to terrifying levels. But so far we're not being utter morons ;-). Let's try to push this to the "we're actually clever at a population level" and we could, conceivably, get this below 5,000 dead in the next year. That would be a FANTASTIC result at this stage.... I'm assuming no proper vaccine in October for these numbers. If we can get a safe vaccine by then then we can push it even lower.

That's very very speculative. Not gonna have a go at you as you seem quite reasonable most of the time.

I would be very careful before throwing around numbers like that though.

At least not as bad as Accumulators prediction of 5% of the worlds population, a mere 375 million people, dead from it by the end of the summer.

With your figures extrapolated worldwide though, you're saying as many as 100 million might die this year from the virus.

I find that very hard to believe. Bordering on insane levels of fear-mongering speculation.

Funsterdelux

Donald Trump wrote: »

Don't mind Bolsonaro.

Second fella from right is confirmed corona victim. Photo taken a few days ago in Mar-a-Largo

Its ok, he is wearing a hat

LadyMayBelle

spookwoman wrote: »

Those parents are being selfish getting your ma to come in

She's offered to go to them actually...

123654789

Dunno if already mentioned but they've stopped letting people kiss the Blarney stone.
Suspended the practice, as it were.

Ardillaun

Donald Trump wrote: »

Don't mind Bolsonaro.

Second fella from right is confirmed corona victim. Photo taken a few days ago in Mar-a-Largo

Yes, I should have mentioned that. Should anybody be meeting Trump now?

spookwoman

LadyMayBelle wrote: »

She's offered to go to them actually...

Persoanlly think they should have said no even if she offered to mind them

igCorcaigh

First death in Scotland

Funsterdelux

Donald Trump wrote: »

Don't mind Bolsonaro.

Second fella from right is confirmed corona victim. Photo taken a few days ago in Mar-a-Largo

Is it just me or are Mike Pences arms really long?

ceadaoin.

cjmc wrote: »

"Europe is now the epicenter of COVID19" who head says

USA is next and I've not doubt the cases here will dwarf those in Europe.

I wonder how it works during a lockdown for those people expected to keep working to keep things running, such as those in supermarkets and pharmacies and electricity workers etc. Do they get a choice? A large amount of extra pay?

Quantum Erasure

Christy42 wrote: »

It varies from border to border but the NI one can't be shut. It would take a massive effort to even try and shut it. We would fail and remove resources from elsewhere for little benefit. This isn't an economic concern. It would take away resources from the supply lines getting people food/medicine and help costing lives.

there should be more cooperation North - South over this, thinking mostly of Leo, et al,

kowloon

roosterman71 wrote: »

If the Brazilian boss has the virus, and there's a good chance Donald has picked it up, how is Leo?

Bolsonaro tested negative.

Professor Moriarty

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Complex answer to what appears to be a simple question:

Let's call what we have now COVID-19. The 60% immunity will apply to COVID-19. The British plan appears to be to allow it to infect 60% of their population by October. You could expect a huge spike in death rates from October to December ( this is the pattern Spanish Flu followed ).

Their gamble is that by having a controlled rate of infection through September with them increasing and decreasing restrictions ( kind of like stepping on the brake in a car ) in order to improve the economy ( decreased restrictions ) or decreasing the rate of infection ( increased restrictions ) they can let it spread without ever overwhelming the NHS critical care capacity ( which would cause a spike from 2% mortality to 10% mortality ) and then by the time October comes when this could spread like wildfire and utterly overwhelm the NHS killing multiples of the number who die between now and September they'll have enough herd immunity to prevent that.

You can also tell that their advice is that there won't be any meaningful vaccine ( or in sufficient numbers anyway ) by then as this plan only makes sense if they're sure there won't be one.

Theoretically it could work. it is also VERY audacious and if it works they could come out of this very well... To be fair you have to bear in mind that very well both economically and socially in this situation is defined as somewhere between 400,000 to 800,000 dead over the next year in a moderate case scenario so very well is definitely open to interpretation.

If they're wrong though then they'll have conducted a controlled burn of their population and allowed more to die than countries which severely restrict do.

As I said, personally, I think the Irish solution is superior and will work better in the real world. But we'll only know in January 2021 which was right.

Forget Brexit, when they write Boris Johnson's biographies this is what they'll focus on.


With all that said when COVID-21, 22 etc roll around the best defence will be vaccines. I think they're assuming very pessimistic things about vaccine production and availability. Their plan just doesn't make sense to me unless theyre being VERY pessimistic about vaccine production because you've got to assume that, as this is a coronavirus, it will generate quite different yearly strains. If the strains were very similar the herd immunity would work but I just don't believe that the '21 strain of this is going to be similar enough for herd immunity to work.

The British advisors clearly believe differently? Who is right? We'll find out in October 2021.

Welcome to the frustrating world of real world medicine. In the real world you make life and death decisions without knowing if they're the right ones. That is why it is such a tough job emotionally. Imagine how upset you'd be if you realise that despite your best efforts you chose the wrong option.

If these advisers get it wrong they'll be the most hated men in the UK in 18 months time. I wouldn't be surprised to hear they've committed suicide if they're wrong about this. it is all pretty high stakes and sobering

According to the FT, Italy averages 12.2 critical care beds per 100,000. The UK averages 6.6. Hmmm.

Donald Trump

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Its ok, he is wearing a hat

It's not red though

ChikiChiki

World leaders need to stop meeting. Have a skype call or something.

The Dáil needs to function remotely.

1641

123654789 wrote: »

Dunno if already mentioned but they've stopped letting people kiss the Blarney stone.
Suspended the practice, as it were.

So that's it, then - we are out of luck?

123654789

LadyMayBelle that's awful, your poor mum. What do the parents do thats so vital they can't have one of them take time off work?

Donald Trump

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Is it just me or are Mike Pences arms really long?

That's from decades of **** immoral thoughts out of his head

Ardillaun

BloodBath wrote: »

That's very very speculative. Not gonna have a go at you as you seem quite reasonable most of the time.

I would be very careful before throwing around numbers like that though.

At least not as bad as Accumulators prediction of 5% of the worlds population, a mere 375 million people, dead from it by the end of the summer.

With your figures extrapolated worldwide though, you're saying as many as 100 million might die this year from the virus.

I find that very hard to believe. Bordering on insane levels of fear-mongering speculation.

Unless we throw numbers around, we are in serious danger of missing the potential danger here. We can’t wait for the worst case scenario to land on our heads.

Professor Moriarty

BloodBath wrote: »

That's very very speculative. Not gonna have a go at you as you seem quite reasonable most of the time.

I would be very careful before throwing around numbers like that though.

At least not as bad as Accumulators prediction of 5% of the worlds population, a mere 375 million people, dead from it by the end of the summer.

With your figures extrapolated worldwide though, you're saying as many as 100 million might die this year from the virus.

I find that very hard to believe. Bordering on insane levels of fear-mongering speculation.

Think healthcare in India, Brazil, Nigeria, Indonesia...

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Martina1991 wrote: »

4 to 6 hours is how long the actual analysis process takes. You have to take into account specimen transport and reporting. A sample coming from rural Kerry to Dublin isn't going to have a turnaround time of 4 hours.

There are now thousands of samples being sent to the NVRL. That causes a backlog. It's like traffic. You have to wait your turn.

Testing is being ramped up to be available in other hospitals around the country. People are so impatient, even in a crisis.

Do you want fast results or the right results?

+1

People would complain if incorrect results were relayed but can’t seem to accept that new testing facilities must be validated before testing can begin, to ensure accuracy.

kowloon

Donald Trump wrote: »

That's from decades of **** immoral thoughts out of his head

He has long arms for giving reach arounds.

123654789

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Is it just me or are Mike Pences arms really long?

He could pass the salt and still maintain a 2m social distance

New Home

wakka12 wrote: »

What the f is going on in Japan? Not even 10,000 tests done there? And almost 7% of them were positive. Theres likely a massive epidemic going on there undetected. They trying to cover it up for the olympics or something?

It's the number of tests per million people. I got confused, too.

Mic 1972

There are over 75K closed cases now, death rate has risen to 6.61%
Unfortunately this number will continue to rise as more hospitals reach full capacity

Inquitus

Burts Bee wrote: »

Just wondering. Kids are off school but am taking them out walking and hiking. No contact with others. That's OK, right?

Yes, that's what we are planning too, steer clear of playgrounds where the virus can live on plastic and steel surfaces, as well as there being other kids to play with, go to the woods, the beach or whatever floats your boat. Practice good hygiene before leaving and when returning to the house.