Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Thelonious Monk

take everything wrote: »

Just out of interest.
Have Russia been affected at all

In Soviet Russia, Coronavirus infects you!

No wait.

Pseudonym121

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

no, no it's not

I know, it was a joke. I did explain in a later post that since they'd already bred by that age it wasn't technically accurate... but it was simply a joke to amuse myself.

circadian

I'm dreading the numbers over the next week. It won't be until Friday next week at earliest well see the effect of schools closing and more people staying a home. The run on the shops will cause a spike, no doubt.

ChikiChiki

"The greatest error is to be paralysed by fear of failure"

Dr Mike Ryan.

GooglePlus

Sam Quentin wrote: »

Compared to mainland Europe I'm hopeful and do believe that we will not see the huge spikes that they have seen, and I think we will see this within 2 weeks where the amount of infected people will start to level of....annnnd within another 2 weeks will start to decline!?
Ps: Remember I said compared to Mainland Europe, I'm not saying anything is good in Ireland about this virus...I don't know,I just feel positive today

Ah no, I'd love if you weren't wrong but this thing is taking over.

Strazdas

Sam Quentin wrote: »

Compared to mainland Europe I'm hopeful and do believe that we will not see the huge spikes that they have seen, and I think we will see this within 2 weeks where the amount of infected people will start to level of....annnnd within another 2 weeks will start to decline!?
Ps: Remember I said compared to Mainland Europe, I'm not saying anything is good in Ireland about this virus...I don't know,I just feel positive today

Watching the HSE press conference today and they said the aim is to try and keep it to 200 cases a week for the next five weeks, so the next five weeks is critical : if they can keep the numbers under this, they will be relieved.

wakka12

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/nick_kapur/status/1238156462708477958?s=20

The attitudes of some countries are really shocking me in this, Netherlands and Japan are testing a tiny amount as well. And almost 10% of the tests those countries are doing are coming back positive, it would imply there is huge spread of the disease ongoing in both of these countries

1641

OneColdHand wrote: »

State media has reported that Putin personally, and single handedly, defeated Covid-19 and it has now been removed from Russia.

Not totally removed - sent to Siberia.

endainoz

So how are the in denial trolls doing these days?

gmisk

Local basketball/football court totally rammed with kids....
Not sure closing the schools will help a huge amount....

Quantum Erasure

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

I know, it was a joke. I did explain in a later post that since they'd already bred by that age it wasn't technically accurate... but it was simply a joke to amuse myself.

sorry, was just trying to be smart myself...
if i looked at your username i probably would have realised

Juwwi

Pubs and bookies here seem very busy today for Cheltenham , so much for the 100 people rule for indoor gatherings ,, China got this under control because the people listened and done what they were told to do .

ArchXStanton

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

In Soviet Russia, Coronavirus infects you!

No wait.

Good to see some former soviet states doing something

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5TNecidRD0

Squeaksoutloud

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

2% of "confirmed cases" die. Since a lot of cases are unconfirmed we can expect the death rate to be less than 2% of the total number infected BUT that all goes out of the window if the health services get overwhelmed and 10% of confirmed cases die due to lack of ventilators.

It all gets very complex and if there's interest I could explain the various assumptions which would set upper and lower bounds in another long post but, bottom line, it is quite reasonable to say that we are facing 5.5million x 60% infection rate = 3.3 million x 2% death rate = 66,000 dead over the next year.

If we isolate really well we can push that down. If we can spread the infections over 12 months instead of 3 then we'll push it down even more etc etc. If we're idiots then we can push it up above 66,000

If we assume we are truly morons then we can push the death rate to terrifying levels. But so far we're not being utter morons ;-). Let's try to push this to the "we're actually clever at a population level" and we could, conceivably, get this below 5,000 dead in the next year. That would be a FANTASTIC result at this stage.... I'm assuming no proper vaccine in October for these numbers. If we can get a safe vaccine by then then we can push it even lower.

Interesting reading alright. Hopefully we can flatten that curve and reduce deaths to that amount. It would be a great achievement. I am also involved in the emergency planning and heartened to finally see things taking off this week. If the treatments to reduce serious inflammation also work then we can really escape the worst of it.

Shelga

pawdee wrote: »

What's stopping you?

I guess I'm just going to tell my managers that I will be working from home from Monday. Am being made to feel like it's not needed. If I was a manager, I'd be explicitly telling my staff to work from home.

igCorcaigh

I wonder will they have any words on the UK strategy, or have they mentioned it at all? White flag and all that.

cnocbui

Xertz wrote: »

Could also be a very harsh dose of reality if the population is generally immune and they aren’t.

There was very widespread enthusiasm for vaccines in the past due to polio and various other horrendous diseases. We just haven’t seen one in the living memory of a lot of those conspiracy theorists. The result has been the luxury of even being able to think like that about them!

A huge dose of reality on the way.

There was a teacher when I was in HS who had had polio. His head was normally proportioned for a large adult male but he was about half the height he should have been, his legs were 3-40% the length they should have been, one of them was bent inwards as if he had been hit side on by a car and never mended and his spine was twisted and he 'walked' with a gait that will stay with me for life. One got the impression he was in some pain all the time.

Anti-vaxers should be - well, I'm probably not allowed to say what I think on that.

Bit cynical

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Britain is having a very interesting experiment. They’ve abandoned the Taiwan/Singapore strategy of trying to catch it early and eradicate spread. Instead they’re going for a controlled rate of infection such that their health service doesn’t get overwhelmed and they can get to 60% of the population infected without ever running out of critical care beds. This means they are pretty much accepting 800,000 fatalities out of the 36 million who will get it (assuming 2% survival rate with tx). But once they hit 60% they should begin to get good benefits from herd immunity.

Clearly this implies that their models have shown them that if they don’t get herd immunity by October then when this really hits hard over the months of October to December they’d lose even more than that. This is population-level triage and a really interesting approach. It certainly has face validity but I don’t think that it will be acceptable socially by the population. This is why they are saying that their strategy doesn’t mean accepting a 60% spread when actually, in reality, that’s the whole point of the strategy – the herd immunity that % of infections will grant the rest of the population come October PLUS the fact that if only 40% can get infected in those three months your peak will be lower and thus you’ll keep the death rate closer to 2% than the 10% you’ll get if the health service gets overwhelmed.

We’ll only know who was right in January 2021…. Epidemiologically I think their approach is probably right theoretically. In practice though I doubt it will work. They’ve basically given up on containment and are doing the equivalent of a controlled burn – but with humans. I wonder how the British population will react when this reality hits home. I think the Irish approach will have a much better chance of maintaining social cohesion.

I suspect we have the same strategy here as well. Manage the peak and hope the peak does not overwhelm hospitals. They are just being a bit more upfront about it. Controlled burn in both cases. Neither country is going down the route that Singapore / South Korea took.

Spook_ie

Not all EU countries are closing all schools as yet, does this mean we went too early or just right, time will tell

https://en.unesco.org/themes/education-emergencies/coronavirus-school-closures

rdwight

Burts Bee wrote: »

Just wondering. Kids are off school but am taking them out walking and hiking. No contact with others. That's OK, right?

facehugger99 wrote: »

Deeply worrying the questions people come on here to ask.

Intensely irritating the unnecessary responses people here give to concerned parents seeking reassurance.

spookwoman

Germany now has +736 new cases and 2 more deaths about an hour ago it was +372 and 1 more death

Silverfish

Shelga wrote: »

I guess I'm just going to tell my managers that I will be working from home from Monday. Am being made to feel like it's not needed. If I was a manager, I'd be explicitly telling my staff to work from home.

Thankful to say my boss had us out the door and working from home before the company managed to make a decision on it at all.

Unfortunately many staff have to work onsite but they'll be less densely packed than if all of us computer touchers were still there, thus reducing interactions / surfaces being touched / potential spread.

We also lose money and holidays but sure look, I'd rather do that and have a job to go back to, and ensure that the staff who have to stay onsite can keep being paid.

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I suspect we have the same strategy here as well. Manage the peak and hope the peak does not overwhelm hospitals. They are just being a bit more upfront about it. Controlled burn in both cases. Neither country is going down the route that China took.

It's ultra sensible. If the health service can manage the numbers of cases for the next few weeks and is not overwhelmed, half the battle is already won (as we are buying ourselves precious time).

facehugger99

rdwight wrote: »

Intensely irritating the unnecessary responses people here give to concerned parents seeking reassurance.

Well, they've come to the wrong thread for that.

dominatinMC

endainoz wrote: »

So how are the in denial trolls doing these days?

Is point scoring on Boards really necessary? Maybe cabin fever is setting-in early for some..Try and keep up with the discussion rather than derail

Inquitus

wakka12 wrote: »

The attitudes of some countries are really shocking me in this, Netherlands and Japan are testing a tiny amount as well. And almost 10% of the tests those countries are doing are coming back positive, it would imply there is huge spread of the disease ongoing in both of these countries

The US utterly bungled their decision not to use the WHO test and to develop their own, the first major batch manufactured was done incorrectly and the tests did not function, effectively they wasted 7 weeks of testing with this error.

is_that_so

Lufthansa to apply for financial aid - even the biggest are under pressure.

1641

Sam Quentin wrote: »

Compared to mainland Europe I'm hopeful and do believe that we will not see the huge spikes that they have seen, and I think we will see this within 2 weeks where the amount of infected people will start to level of....annnnd within another 2 weeks will start to decline!?
Ps: Remember I said compared to Mainland Europe, I'm not saying anything is good in Ireland about this virus...I don't know,I just feel positive today

I am thinking that the Kubler-Ross model of the stages of grief has some relevance to how many of us are all dealing with this threat. Rather than stages I think it is more like alternating reactions that we experience. Reflected in the thread too.

"The 5 stages of grief and loss are: 1. Denial and isolation; 2. Anger; 3. Bargaining; 4. Depression; 5. Acceptance. People who are grieving do not necessarily go through the stages in the same order or experience all of them." https://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/

Also: https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/blog/supersurvivors/201707/why-the-five-stages-grief-are-wrong

cloudatlas

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They can wallow in their pariah state status when cv is endemic year in year out. Even NI will have imposed travel restrictions to the UK mainland by that stage.

Of course that’s right. This is all they will do and Ireland’s response is the only thing they will do, the situation isn’t evolving currently at all. Nope.

Downlinz

Spook_ie wrote: »

Not all EU countries are closing all schools as yet, does this mean we went too early or just right, time will tell

https://en.unesco.org/themes/education-emergencies/coronavirus-school-closures

If we've learned anything from this crisis it's that measures which seem overly cautious at the time look incredibly sensible a week later.

It wasn't so long ago that the Italian lockdown of 10 towns was being described as "Draconian" but those areas now appear to be the safest parts of Italy with no new cases yesterday.