Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

Speak Now

MonkieSocks wrote: »

London Marathon cancelled

Postponed to October

patnor1011

Tootsie_1 wrote: »

Lots of HSE staff being redeployed to different areas it's getting very real now not going to lie I'm shook I feel a very nervous energy I can't shake not for myself but for parents, parents in law. I feel like the $hit is about to hit the fan.

You need to relax and instead of being worried about what might happen to them focus your thinking on how you may be able to help when it come.
People lived through epidemics, famine, wars and life while hard will go on.

cnocbui

froog wrote: »

anyone feel like US is purposely messing up the testing thing to keep numbers artificially low?

if they had a comprehensive testing regime they would easily have the highest infection rate outside china.

No need to seek an explanation in malice when plain incompetence would suffice.

Stheno

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1238512071991529472?s=20

Jesus.

Is that 1000 deaths this week?

They'll be having mass burials at this rate

Speak Now

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

thats for the whole island, ?

Thread title

Quantum Erasure

MonkieSocks wrote: »

London Marathon cancelled

London coronavirus: London Marathon organisers deny reports race has been postponed until October

How Soon Is Now

Wonder how many people are squashed into half the pubs around this area alone...


https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar

saabsaab

The UK 'experts' seem to be gambling on a higher risk strategy. They want to Let it take its course, let people who care take their own precautions, this may slow it down. A bit like the 'free market' it will kill those who are unlucky or vulnerable and then burn out quickly, leaving those behind resistant, maybe. A vaccine would protect those who get through it 10 to 12 months on. Also chance of a effective treatment beforehand too.



If say 40% contract it, then 4 million will be ill to a moderate to severe degree, resulting in perhaps 400,000 Deaths and two million very ill. Pure guesswork could be better or worse depending on the breaks.

Turtwig

DOCARCH wrote: »

The only thing I will say/suggest about the UK is that they still have a quite low case count per rata with population.

Confirmed cases stands at 11.8 cases/million.

This might be reason they have not gone further yet?

In comparison....

Italy 250.0 cases/million
Denmark 138.3 cases/million
Spain 92.7 cases/million
Netherlands 46.9 cases/million
France 44.1 cases/million
Germany 41.5 cases/million

This misconception is really dangerous. We have got to stop comparing population size and
absolute numbers. It's the growth rate and behavior of individual clusters that's important.

Simon Harris, actually explained this rather well. We may see a prominent cluster in one area of the country that requires more extreme measures than elsewhere.

The absolute number of cases in a country isn't important. All things being equal containment wise an infection in Dublin, New York, London, Milan, Wuhan would grow at very similar rates .e.g
1, 20, 2000, 20,000, 200,00

If a city had less infected it likely means they're just days or weeks behind in the growth cycle.

The "health" of the region needs to be assessed by how much the number of cases is growing.
NOT the % population infected.

Necro

Boggles wrote: »

The UK have a 10 point plan.

The 2 most radical points being.

1. School trips overseas are cancelled.
2. Over 70s should avoid cruise ships.

They are fúcked with that absolute clown in charge and if we don't cut them lose we are fúcked.

You know what Boggles I don't agree with you on a lot of things but you're spot on about this.

The UK are going down a path of self-destruction, if this 'herd immunisation' tactic is to be believed. Leaving the elderly and those with underlying health conditions hanging out to dry is akin to genocide.

If they mismanage this even 1/100th as badly as they did Brexit then we are in trouble by simply being neighbours.

ZX7R

ACitizenErased wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1238512071991529472?s=20

There death rate is going to get worse,
If they really only treating severe case's 60 year old and under in certain areas.

Such grief and sadness RIP

ChikiChiki

saabsaab wrote: »

The UK 'experts' seem to be gambling on a higher risk strategy. They want to Let it take its course, let people who care take their own precautions, this may slow it down. A bit like the 'free market' it will kill those who are unlucky or vulnerable and then burn out quickly, leaving those behind resistant, maybe. A vaccine would protect those who get through it 10 to 12 months on. Also chance of a effective treatment beforehand too.



If say 40% contract it, then 4 million will be ill to a moderate to severe degree, resulting in perhaps 400,000 Deaths and two million very ill. Pure guesswork could be better or worse depending on the breaks.

They seem to be going against all pragmatic advice.

A survey on sky news said the public were happy with their approach.

is_that_so

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

London coronavirus: London Marathon organisers deny reports race has been postponed until October

Are you sure?

Hugh Brasher, the event’s director, said: “The world is in an unprecedented situation grappling with a global pandemic of COVID-19 and public health is everyone’s priority.
“We know how disappointing this news will be for so many – the runners who have trained for many months, the thousands of charities for which they are raising funds and the millions who watch the race every year.”

Pseudonym121

BloodBath wrote: »

That's very very speculative. Not gonna have a go at you as you seem quite reasonable most of the time.

I would be very careful before throwing around numbers like that though.

At least not as bad as Accumulators prediction of 5% of the worlds population, a mere 375 million people, dead from it by the end of the summer.

With your figures extrapolated worldwide though, you're saying as many as 100 million might die this year from the virus.

I find that very hard to believe. Bordering on insane levels of fear-mongering speculation.

Statistics and the possibilities therein aren't scaremongering they just are rational workings out of possibilities.

When you do this sort of examination you come up with a worst, medium and best case scenario. You then come up with optimistic, middle and pessimistic sub-scenarios at every level.

The pessimistic worst case scenario is 10% of the world's population. The likelihood of that happening is low but that's what the figures show. Admittedly most of that 10% would be in Africa and dysfunctional regions of the world ( parts of the middle east, south america and far east ) where they could quite easily hit over 20% death rates.

When I first posted figures 2 weeks ago people mistook "hard to believe" for impossible. Now those figures are not seen as hystrionic at all.

So, you may have difficulty believing those numbers but they're within the scope of the models and your difficulty with them doesn't make this untrue. FWIW I sympathise with you since they are horrifying but the key is to do whatever we can to make sure we end up with the optimistic best case scenario numbers instead eh?

IrishStuff09

d51984 wrote: »

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/

Simple page with figures for Ireland and Northern Ireland. Updated regularly, a credit to Shane Hastings.

https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/

Cheers for the share - doing my best to keep it updated with official information. Some might have noticed the stats table is a lagging behind the official figures, as at this point I don't think they are going to release that info with the increase in cases.

Quantum Erasure

Speak Now wrote: »

Postponed to October

so its not cancelled so? /s

Nermal

Stheno wrote: »

Jesus.

Is that 1000 deaths this week?

They'll be having mass burials at this rate

Over 12,000 people die a week in Italy. No need for the bulldozer yet.

Quantum Erasure

is_that_so wrote: »

Are you sure?

no, pretty sure i'm wrong actually

spookwoman

Stheno wrote: »

Jesus.

Is that 1000 deaths this week?

They'll be having mass burials at this rate

first week from first death 17, 131, 868, and today would be start of new week @ 250

ZX7R

Nermal wrote: »

Over 12,000 people die a week in Italy. No need for the bulldozer yet.

But If theses deaths are centralised they might have to do mas burials

sudzs

How Soon Is Now wrote: »

Wonder how many people are squashed into half the pubs around this area alone...


https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar

Looks freezin'!

And all those smokers huddled together with their compromised lungs!! :eek:

cj maxx

On the radio ad it says cough into a tissue and bin it.
If you don't have a tissue cough into your sleeve.
Do you throw away your shirt/jumper?
Do you take it off and wash it?

MD1990

Italy cases are not accurate.

Way more than 17,000 have it.

Closer to 170,000 i would think.

Sir Oxman

Might be useful to show kids? twisting science a bit but...
https://twitter.com/OborneTweets/status/1238514096053669892?s=20

Stheno

MD1990 wrote: »

Italy cases are not accurate.

Way more than 17,000 have it.

Closer to 170,000 i would think.

I suspect they are completely overwhelmed et lmed.

Are the deaths being counted only those in hospital?

Deeper Blue

Apparently 14 million of the 60 million people in Italy are over 65. Didn't realise that

How Soon Is Now

sudzs wrote: »

Looks freezin'!

And all those smokers huddled together with their compromised lungs!! :eek:

I was watching it on and off for a while actually out of interest lets just say no one is keeping there distance and following the guidelines around there anyway!

tobefrank321

saabsaab wrote: »

The UK 'experts' seem to be gambling on a higher risk strategy. They want to Let it take its course, let people who care take their own precautions, this may slow it down. A bit like the 'free market' it will kill those who are unlucky or vulnerable and then burn out quickly, leaving those behind resistant, maybe. A vaccine would protect those who get through it 10 to 12 months on. Also chance of a effective treatment beforehand too.



If say 40% contract it, then 4 million will be ill to a moderate to severe degree, resulting in perhaps 400,000 Deaths and two million very ill. Pure guesswork could be better or worse depending on the breaks.

Even Italy won't be that bad when they get a handle on it. Nowhere near that bad.

If it gets that bad in the UK we'll have no choice but to stop flights to and from.

is_that_so

NDWC wrote: »

Apparently 14 million of the 60 million people in Italy are over 65. Didn't realise that

It's about 23% for the over 65s.

Professor Moriarty

NDWC wrote: »

Apparently 14 million of the 60 million people in Italy are over 65. Didn't realise that

24%. Ireland is 19%.