Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

saabsaab

DOCARCH wrote: »

Were they sweaty?

Didn't touch any or hang around long enough to find out!

sjb25

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1237689414060556289?s=20

Funsterdelux

piplip87 wrote: »

Where is the fella who was PMing everyboylast night saying there would be 42 cases reported today ?

They finally got to him

Stheno

namloc1980 wrote: »

We're still in the wait and see phase.

And the longer we wait and see the more it will spread

BloodBath

KWAG2019 wrote: »

Just hit ignore.

Yeah don't question anything. Just believe any old ****e you are told.

The vast majority of stuff I've called out in this thread over the last month as BS has been BS.

World leaders always tell the truth right!

Stevieluvsye

gmisk wrote: »

If you classify that as a scandal...it's is pretty much the same in all of Europe...

And something else

RandomName2

Maxpfizer wrote: »

I get that but if Merkel is predicting 58 million infections then there is a clear issue regarding the timescale for such numbers.

We even have people saying that China has it under control now.
So these predictions of tens of millions of cases are what? Scaremongering?

BloodBath wrote: »

There is almost no basis for any of those numbers.

It's frankly irresponsible of world leaders to be using them without some sort of context.

It would be reasonable to assume that, without containment, that about 20% of the world's population will get infected.

If we want a model for this we can look at either the 1918 pandemic or swine flu in terms of numbers of infected. Swine flu infected between 11-21% of the world population while Spanish flu infected about 27% of the world population. Taking 20% seems like a reasonable benchmark.

Say we remove China from the equation, because, unlike the rest of the world, are actually trying to get rid of the disease, so we are talking about 6.5 billion people worldwide

20% of this is 1,300,000,000 people

That's significantly more than Merkel has predicted.

Incidentally if this many people gets infected we could expect a minimum of
13 million deaths worldwide. This is a conservative estimate.

wakka12

fattymuatty wrote: »

I don't know if this has been mentioned already because the thread is so busy. Malta have introduced mandatory quarantine for people who have arrived back from a number of countries, if you don't observe quarantine you get a 1000e fine with police doing spot checks. There is also a ban on air and sea travel starting from midnight from Spain, France, Germany and Switzerland, they already banned travel from Italy. They have only had 6 cases so far but have a far smaller population that us.

I don't see why we can't do similar, mandatory quarantine at the very least.

Because Ireland is much bigger and cosmopolitan than Malta and quarantining people from the majority of the EU is an unfeasibly large task. Better off simply to ban all foreign visitors at that stage.

Higgins5473

piplip87 wrote: »

Where is the fella who was PMing everyboylast night saying there would be 42 cases reported today ?

He’s on life support in an isolation tent in St. James, rumour has it he’s infected 32 other people. Remarkable prediction in fairness.

gmisk

LRNM wrote: »

I actually don't know if they test it for covid19 but I'd assume so.

I wonder how the blood banks in italy are coping?



Not sure if this is the kind of disease that would do that.

My point is they don't want my blood...because I am gay. I would happily give it but hey.

I think the test is a swab for it not blood?

SleetAndSnow

Just got an email from UCC, Saying they are preparing for the learning online now that its a pandemic and there will be an email from the deputy president tomorrow.

ThePiedPiper

I can’t help but think this could be the first of a number of huge events in the next century that’ll change the course of human life on earth. This planet isn’t capable of supporting nearly 8 billion humans, with our insatiable need and greed. We’re wrecking the environment, we’re living in close proximity, overuse of antibiotics leading to superbugs, amongst other major changes.

As a species, we’ve had a blessed and somewhat ignorant and naive existence, too wrapped up in materialistic cr@p to appreciate how good we’ve had it over the last 70 years. Hopefully, we’ll weather this storm, and maybe make changes that might lead to a healthier planet.

fr336

Emergency legislation in UK next week

wakka12

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Just got an email from UCC, Saying they are preparing for the learning online now that its a pandemic and there will be an email from the deputy president tomorrow.

In UCD and also we were told classes would be online from now on. Though it was not an official college wide email just one that was specific to our course/school.

blade1

UK 12 billion package to tackle virus.
Smaller firms to get money to give staff time off.

Phibsboro

For people who 9 new cases isn't too bad, that would indicate a doubling time of 2.7 days, which is on the "oh s**t" side of possible estimates. At that rate we would hit 10% population infection by 19th April and the possible peak of say 80% by 28th April. We really want that doubling rate to go out beyond 4 days which would be something less than an 18% daily increase on average (as opposed to today's 27% increase). Ideally we would be at around 10% new cases each day, which is over 7 days doubling time.

Having said that, at these low numbers it doesn't necessarily extrapolate out, it is the trend of daily increases over the next couple of weeks we need to look at.

Finally a reminder of what even a 10% population infection rate will look like for hospitals - 400,000 infected. Best estimate 15% require critical case hospitalisation = 60,000, 5% require serious ICU = 20,000. Our combined ICU/High Dependency Beds in Ireland are around 250. It is hard to even contemplate that.

Stevieluvsye

Higgins5473 wrote: »

He’s on life support in an isolation tent in St. James, rumour has it he’s infected 32 other people. Remarkable prediction in fairness.

He is

Sierra Oscar

US stock markets taking an awful hammering this evening.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Just got an email from UCC, Saying they are preparing for the learning online now that its a pandemic and there will be an email from the deputy president tomorrow.

Would you post it?

sterz

saabsaab wrote: »

Didn't touch any or hand around long enough to find out!

What was the point of your post re the Italians you saw?

Away With The Fairies

is_that_so wrote: »

The big curve is the expected number of cases over time until it peaks and the graph shows that surge we've seen in a lot of countries. The flattening of the curve as it has been called means managing cases so that while you may get about the same number you have fewer at the same time. As it is over a longer period a heath system can cope better with it.

We really are ****ed so. Our hospitals can't cope at all.

caveat emptor

BloodBath wrote: »

And I asked you to show the modelling that proves these numbers. I can't exactly disprove them without that.

I understand how science works and it's not 1 team doing a computer simulation with very limited data sets and no accounting for the reactions of people and governments to reduce those numbers.

This is a tough one. Bearing in mind I can kinda "see into the future" by looking at every other country that has had an outbreak before us and that everything the experts (doom mongers I believe you call them) said has transpired.

I think I'm going to go with them on this one. Thanks for the opinion though.

What about Angela being responsible? The German Chancellor, leader of 83 million people is not being responsible. Maybe she feels that her people should know the facts and prepare. Maybe she knows that they can be trusted with such serious information and make decisions for themselves and not have to hand held. She made a good call by blocking exports of personal protection equipment. (I think you said they don't work) This is the real world though and countries and peoples should act in their peoples interest. It is their duty in fact. Glad to see someone them take it seriously. Leo said it was bad yesterday, I guess he doesn't get either.

pad199207

Indeed, awful news from Naas Hospital. That poor woman was infected through community spread.

I was at the hospital yesterday morning and a few staff at the door were stopping people going in and they looked very worried. There was also reportedly a case found out in Sallins.

Martina1991

LRNM wrote:

Lads....donated blood has to be tested also.

*sigh*
It's not blood borne, so no, it wont be routinely looked for in donations.

Jinglejangle69

ThePiedPiper wrote: »

I can’t help but think this could be the first of a number of huge events in the next century that’ll change the course of human life on earth. This planet isn’t capable of supporting nearly 8 billion humans, with our insatiable need and greed. We’re wrecking the environment, we’re living in close proximity, overuse of antibiotics leading to superbugs, amongst other major changes.

As a species, we’ve had a blessed and somewhat ignorant and naive existence, too wrapped up in materialistic cr@p to appreciate how good we’ve had it over the last 70 years. Hopefully, we’ll weather this storm, and maybe make changes that might lead to a healthier planet.

Nature always finds a way of controlling the population.

gmisk

blade1 wrote: »

UK 12 billion package to tackle virus.
Smaller firms to get money to give staff time off.

Ireland giving a bigger spend seemingly per GDP 0.9 versus 0.5 percent
So that's a positive here I suppose!

DOCARCH

sterz wrote: »

What was the point of your post re the Italians you saw?

Public service announcement.

froog

fritzelly wrote: »

Still no widespread testing - only contact tracing/testing

what exactly do you want here? everyone with a cough and small bit of a temperature to be tested? and how often? every day?

how would you propose to roll out such an initiative? how many medical staff would that involve?

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

+2,313 in Italy today and +196 deaths. It's out of control there.

Is this compared to yesterdays decrease? Wasn't there a problem with yesterdays due to stats not coming in from all hospitals?

jmayo

thomas 123 wrote: »

We will overcome this! We will!

Yes mankind is very resilient, but a lot of people will not survive it.

Martina1991 wrote: »

- Restricted visiting to a number of hospitals.
- NAS staff providing a service to test people without having to come to A&E
- Setting up isolation wards in hospitals
- Increased training for staff on the front lines in the care of infected patients.
- Number of patients on trollies reducing
- HR policy for redeployment of staff in a crisis including the suspension of annual leave and perhaps pulling people back that have retired.
- Cancelling outpatient appointments
- Cancelling elective suregries to prevent ICU cases.
- Extended testing facilities in other hospitals to increase testing capacity.
(this should allow for broader testing criteria)

What about setup of new temporary ICUs ?

What about purchase of new ventilators ?

What about sanctions for staff that ignore isolation guidelines ?
Yes I have heard of one gent that ignored it and is now sick.