Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

fr336

I see people are complaining about British Airways cancelling flights to and from Italy. This has been building for 2 weeks now, and has got out of control in the last week - why were these people still in Italy if they didn't want to get stranded? The wellbeing of BA staff and the UK population as a whole easily trumps these people's moaning for me.

fritzelly

froog wrote: »

what exactly do you want here? everyone with a cough and small bit of a temperature to be tested? and how often? every day?

how would you propose to roll out such an initiative? how many medical staff would that involve?

Well it's damn stupid saying you will only be tested if you have been to these particular places or direct contact with someone we know has it!

gmisk

froog wrote: »

what exactly do you want here? everyone with a cough and small bit of a temperature to be tested? and how often? every day?

how would you propose to roll out such an initiative? how many medical staff would that involve?

In fairness I think they are expanding the conditions to be tested now but yeah I agree

RandomName2

thomas 123 wrote: »

We will overcome this! We will!

We could totally beat this if we put our minds to it. We don't have to just silently endure it.

eviltimeban

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

The 1918 flu was the last pandemic. This is just far too scary.

Incorrect. HIV / Aids is classed as a pandemic.

Cholera in the late 60s.

Hong Kong flu, late 60s.

Malaria, every year.

Ebola and Zika were pandemics.

BloodBath

RandomName2 wrote: »

It would be reasonable to assume that, without containment, that about 20% of the world's population will get infected.

If we want a model for this we can look at either the 1918 pandemic or swine flu in terms of numbers of infected. Swine flu infected between 11-21% of the world population while Spanish flu infected about 27% of the world population. Taking 20% seems like a reasonable benchmark.

Say we remove China from the equation, because, unlike the rest of the world, are actually trying to get rid of the disease, so we are talking about 6.5 billion people worldwide

20% of this is 1,300,000,000 people

That's significantly more than Merkel has predicted.

Incidentally if this many people gets infected we could expect a minimum of
13 million deaths worldwide. This is a conservative estimate.

Jesus do any of ye ever read past the headline.

Merkel used the same 70% number that Leo used all stemming from 1 teams computer model.

Now show me the model and the data sets for it.

fabo1thecross

Could somebody post a link to that website with all the world updates with graphs and lots of info. Saw it in the last thread and was to bookmark it but can not find it now.
Thanks v much.

grogi

froog wrote: »

what exactly do you want here? everyone with a cough and small bit of a temperature to be tested? and how often? every day?

how would you propose to roll out such an initiative? how many medical staff would that involve?

Yes, exactly. Otherwise it is completely pointless and the spread will continue

utmbuilder

I'm not reading 100 pages did some fella say they where going to considering rolling out a vaccine in June, and not have the 18 months of trials?



If you where to run and hide for the Summer any destinations that are all clear it appears not!!

Stevieluvsye

If we had accurate numbers we could make decisive calls

fr336

fabo1thecross wrote: »

Could somebody post a link to that website with all the world updates with graphs and lots of info. Saw it in the last thread and was to bookmark it but can not find it now.
Thanks v much.

Google Worldometres I think

namloc1980

fabo1thecross wrote: »

Could somebody post a link to that website with all the world updates with graphs and lots of info. Saw it in the last thread and was to bookmark it but can not find it now.
Thanks v much.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

RandomName2

BloodBath wrote: »

Jesus do any of ye ever read past the headline.

Merkel used the same 70% number that Leo used all stemming from 1 teams computer model.

Now show me the model and the data sets for it.

Oh 50+ million for Germany alone.

Oh I see.

She should really have probably stopped those flights in from China in the first place if she's going to be that pessimistic now.

wakka12

20% increase in global cases outside China in the last 24 hours.

d51984

Imagine if it snowed the weekend and there was a shooting in Dublin. R.I.P boards.ie

ITman88

paleoperson wrote: »

What the hell are you talking about?

I saw you earlier saying that 50,000 people dying in Ireland would be unrealistic without giving explanation - presumably because it's never happened before.

There's no rulebook on what's going to happen here, but worst case scenarios could be pretty bad.

So what exactly is your irritation at people giving this attention and preparing for the worst at what is a bad situation?

You're free to ignore it if you want.

My irritation is based on the scare mongering that’s occurring on this thread. You do know elevated anxiety levels lower the immune system, I know because a family member suffers anxiety.

Anyhow, posters have a habit of ignoring specific important details of this virus.
It’s affects the elderly, vulnerable and crucially the terminally ill which a lot of victims have been until now. Italy has the oldest population in Europe, this why it’s affecting them so bad. The predictions for Ireland’s infection rates are bizarre.

Yes this virus requires attention, it also requires a measured approach, lockdown as posters are calling it is not required in this country and might never be.

The indicators are predicting a massive recession in Italy, a recession that will change the quality of life back to WW2. The prosperous economy is why people are living longer and vulnerable people have a better quality of life.

not yet

Time to start the pillaging and the raping..

boege

Phibsboro wrote: »

For people who 9 new cases isn't too bad, that would indicate a doubling time of 2.7 days, which is on the "oh s**t" side of possible estimates. At that rate we would hit 10% population infection by 19th April and the possible peak of say 80% by 28th April. We really want that doubling rate to go out beyond 4 days which would be something less than an 18% daily increase on average (as opposed to today's 27% increase). Ideally we would be at around 10% new cases each day, which is over 7 days doubling time.

Having said that, at these low numbers it doesn't necessarily extrapolate out, it is the trend of daily increases over the next couple of weeks we need to look at.

Finally a reminder of what even a 10% population infection rate will look like for hospitals - 400,000 infected. Best estimate 15% require critical case hospitalisation = 60,000, 5% require serious ICU = 20,000. Our combined ICU/High Dependency Beds in Ireland are around 250. It is hard to even contemplate that.

I have been tracking the main EU countries over the past week and the rate of increase has varied fairly consistently between 10% and 30% each day. There are the odd outliers but looking across a range of countries allows this to be averaged out. The median is about 20% which gives a 154 cases in Ireland by this day next week and near 550 by this day two weeks. I think the first figure is likely and the second figure could still be controlled.

What i have also noted is that there are two inflections where numbers seem to kick up (more than 20%) for short periods and these are at around 100 and 1500 positive cases.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

https://twitter.com/King_MY98/status/1237819475602354178?s=20
We saw the same footage emerging in January from Wuhan, of people collapsing or dying in the streets. The scenes became more and more traumatic. Lebanon are at 61 cases, with 9 detected today and their first death reported as well.

Cuckoo7

fabo1thecross wrote: »

Could somebody post a link to that website with all the world updates with graphs and lots of info. Saw it in the last thread and was to bookmark it but can not find it now.
Thanks v much.

This?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

ArchXStanton

utmbuilder wrote: »

I'm not reading 100 pages did some fella say they where going to considering rolling out a vaccine in June, and not have the 18 months of trials?



If you where to run and hide for the Summer any destinations that are all clear it appears not!!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerguelen_Islands

RandomName2

ITman88 wrote: »

Yes this virus requires attention, it also requires a measured approach, lockdown as posters are calling it is not required in this country and might never be.

And this is why we won't get rid of the virus.

Maybe we should give a communist government a shot.

pad199207

Looking at those numbers from Italy today, you’d wonder how it can actually be stopped?

Chardee MacDennis

eviltimeban wrote: »

Ebola and Zika were pandemics.

They were epidemics no?

RandomName2

pad199207 wrote: »

Looking at those numbers from Italy today, you’d wonder how it can actually be stopped?

China was getting 10s of thousands of cases a day at one stage.

Now they are done to 60 cases a day.

It can be stopped.

People just need to try, or if unwilling, be forced to.

mcgucc22

pad199207 wrote: »

Looking at those numbers from Italy today, you’d wonder how it can actually be stopped?

I think it's time to call in The Avengers.

fabo1thecross

Thanks folk but that is not the one. But it’s good all the same.

VinLieger

ITman88 wrote: »

My irritation is based on the scare mongering that’s occurring on this thread. You do know elevated anxiety levels lower the immune system, I know because a family member suffers anxiety.

Anyhow, posters have a habit of ignoring specific important details of this virus.
It’s affects the elderly, vulnerable and crucially the terminally ill which a lot of victims have been until now. Italy has the oldest population in Europe, this why it’s affecting them so bad. The predictions for Ireland’s infection rates are bizarre.

Yes this virus requires attention, it also requires a measured approach, lockdown as posters are calling it is not required in this country and might never be.

The indicators are predicting a massive recession in Italy, a recession that will change the quality of life back to WW2. The prosperous economy is why people are living longer and vulnerable people have a better quality of life.

You are living in a fantasy land, if we do not implement a lockdown our health system will be overwhelmed leading to far more needless deaths than would happen if we did do a lockdown which would wreck our economy far more than a lockdown ever could

sparkle109

First patient in cuh apparently recovered and released from hospital

ITman88

eviltimeban wrote: »

Incorrect. HIV / Aids is classed as a pandemic.

Cholera in the late 60s.

Hong Kong flu, late 60s.

Malaria, every year.

Ebola and Zika were pandemics.

Some posters had an orgasm to bring the pandemic news to the thread!