Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

beggars_bush

Strazdas wrote: »

Prof from Trinity College says on the Tonight Show that one big hope is that the virus is a seasonal flu and will retreat once the warmer weather comes in.

It would then rebound in the autumn but the 5-6 months would buy the authorities precious time. But he adds they simply don't know what they are dealing with and if it is seasonal or not.

What warmer weather?
In Ireland!

Burty330

Many keep saying we can't act irrationally or go to extreme measures , but id disaggree to an extent. China curtialed its spread by using whatever extreme measures were necessary.

Putting Italy into complete shut down 3 weeks ago would have over- the- top for some. Now its acting responsibly. The sooner we go to the extremes the better in my view.

Sierra Oscar

UK media reporting they will move into the delay phase contingency planning from tomorrow.

That puts school closures and a ban on large gatherings on the table.

all about the mane

Axfrderr wrote: »

Why would it?
How would a lockdown have helped the situation?

Just can’t see a lockdown being effective in this country. Nurse on self isolation from CUH in the hairdressers yesterday. Clowns heading off to Italy against all good advice -4 out of 5 get it. One of them still sends his kids to school Monday.

How are people so stupid/selfish??

Tippex

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1237874703496167424?s=20

I wonder how long it takes fergal to compose a tweet considering the amount of times he had to look at information on paper when he is reporting?

igCorcaigh

Look at this action from El Salvador, with zero cases.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237880325394575360?s=19

Quantum Erasure

watching Claire Byrne the other night, or Prime Time, or the Tonight show with Matt Cooper and Ivan Yates.... constant Coronavirus discussion.

Can we keep this up for another few months?

tobefrank321

Strazdas wrote: »

Prof from Trinity College says on the Tonight Show that one big hope is that the virus is a seasonal flu and will retreat once the warmer weather comes in.

It would then rebound in the autumn but the 5-6 months would buy the authorities precious time. But he adds they simply don't know what they are dealing with and if it is seasonal or not.

More misinformation. Qatar enjoys temperatures we can only dream of. Today they announced 200 new cases.

Nijmegen

Nijmegen wrote: »

In the article they say the youngest in ICU is 38. Lot younger than statistically likely but not in their 20s

“There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).”

And then when you read on the second person (in a different hospital) is quoted saying:

He added: "You have no idea how many young people are here, I mean even 20-year-olds with no underlying conditions, in need of assisted breathing because of horrible pneumonia."

Stevieluvsye

Axfrderr wrote: »

Why would it?
How would a lockdown have helped the situation?

Check yourself for SARS you have gone beyond corona .

Sierra Oscar

Belen Uneven Snub-nosed wrote: »

If you are referred for testing, can they send someone to your house to do it?

Waiting in a room with other suspected cases is a good way of spreading both it and whatever other diseases present like it.

The National Ambulance Service are testing people in their homes.

Equium

2nd case announced in Trinity.

Axfrderr

Axfrderr wrote: »

Why would it?
How would a lockdown have helped the situation?

Slowing down the spread thus supporting our over worked heath service.

igCorcaigh

all about the mane wrote: »

Just can’t see a lockdown being effective in this country. Nurse on self isolation from CUH in the hairdressers yesterday. Clowns heading off to Italy against all good advice -4 out of 5 get it. One of them still sends his kids to school Monday.

How are people so stupid/selfish??

It will only only work when it's enforced.

amacca

completedit wrote: »

It is shameful if young people are not being warned adequately about the dangers that this poses to them.

its shameful everyone isn't being properly informed about whats happening and its even more shameful they are dithering. act now and maybe delay it enough to save some lives.

beggars_bush

Need to urgently get a few military facilities e.g. military hospitals and barracks upgraded and ready to take the overflow of patients if needed

1800_Ladladlad

SeaBreezes wrote: »

ITV spoke to doctors in Italy

They say, many 20 year olds with horrible pneumonia.. with no underlying factors ( no comorbidity) the media isn't reporting it...

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

They've stopped incubating those above 60.....

"All the resuscitation bays are full. They’re having to triage, deciding who to intubate and who to let die."

The is grim. Very sad.

Strazdas

Nijmegen wrote: »

Interesting from the FT on the spread after 100 cases in a number of countries. Not looking great now is it.

Case numbers still very low in relation to global population though.

What would really spark alarm and panic is if cases moved into the millions. We're still only on 125k cases.

Equium

Equium wrote: »

2nd case announced in Trinity.

Proper ventilation in some buildings is non existent- I think we can expect a number more in coming days

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/universitytimes/status/1237880773694205952?s=20

fritzelly

innuendo141 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Petrit2010/status/1237864257514958848?s=19

Looking at that pic and can't but help seeing this

Stevieluvsye

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

watching Claire Byrne the other night, or Prime Time, or the Tonight show with Matt Cooper and Ivan Yates.... constant Coronavirus discussion.

Can we keep this up for another few months?

We’ll be throwing ourselves off the roof if we keep watching them. Keep in touch with boards for reliable health briefs

Bannasidhe

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Guys if you end up in a bad way in ICU tell them you have no underlying medical issues, it might save your life

I think the diabetic coma I'd quickly go into might give the game away tbh.

darjeeling

Beanybabog wrote: »

Does flattening the curve mean we still get the same number of cases but over a longer period of time? Or is there a way to reduce the number even if it can’t be eradicated?

It depends.

The proportion of the population infected depends on how transmissible the disease is.
If you can take some action to reduce this and maintain that action over the course of the epidemic, fewer people will be infected overall.

Vaccination would be a great way to do it, but we don't have that.
Better hygiene, quick isolation of cases and contacts, and social distancing can all do this, if maintained throughout the epidemic.
Movement restrictions reduce transmission only while they are in place, and the rate of new infections will increase again once they are lifted. That's why temporary measures won't reduce the overall number infected during the epidemic.

For infectious diseases, the basic reproduction number 'R0' gives the average number of people that each new case goes on to infect at the beginning of the epidemic.
The disease will spread in a population until the fraction of people who are immune reaches 1 - 1/R0.

R0 for SARS-CoV-2 has been estimated so far at around 2-3, though with a fairly large margin of error, while for seasonal flu strains it's about 1.1 to 1.5 and for measles it's around 12-18.

That means that measles spreads until nearly 95% of people are immune (hence the outbreaks we see now that vaccination levels are falling)
Seasonal flu spreads until around 1/10 to 1/3 people are immune (which is why you don't get flu that often - I've only had it twice in the last 20 years)
SARS-CoV-2, if R0 is 2.5, stops spreading when 60% of people are immune.

Getting the transmissibility down to somewhere nearer seasonal flu would therefore be a big help.

JP Liz V1

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Call your doctor to be sure and safe

It is hard to tell the difference the flu, a cold and Covid19

You can't tell the difference between a cold and the flu?

If you have the flu or think it's the flu, get checked as yes, it could be 19. If your a little stuffy and sneezing, it's a cold. Take lemsip.

rosiem

Heres Johnny wrote: »

A poster earlier said he knows her and its Crohns. Easy to miss posts here the thread moving so fast. RIP

I don’t think this is true and without a source we should not be speculating on the conditions of the deceased.

My partner has IBD and this sort of scaremongering will panic people with bowel disease.

1800_Ladladlad

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

They've stopped incubating those above 60.....



The is grim. Very sad.

I think that article should be posted on OP post to let everyone read it- it’s frightening. Might make a few more people take personal responsibility for heeding warnings

branie2

beggars_bush wrote: »

Need to urgently get a few military facilities e.g. military hospitals and barracks upgraded and ready to take the overflow of patients if needed

Great idea!

tobefrank321

all about the mane wrote: »

Just can’t see a lockdown being effective in this country. Nurse on self isolation from CUH in the hairdressers yesterday. Clowns heading off to Italy against all good advice -4 out of 5 get it. One of them still sends his kids to school Monday.

How are people so stupid/selfish??

Fines would help big time with this.

Nijmegen

Strazdas wrote: »

Case numbers still very low in relation to global population though.

What would really spark alarm and panic is if cases moved into the millions. We're still only on 125k cases.

That is how exponential growth works... great explainer video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg