Schools closed until undetermined date - was March 29th

shesty

BanditLuke wrote: »

No chance of schools returning in September unless the vaccine is up and running which won't happen. Right now i think we are looking at best case scenario of a vaccine by January 2021 so you are talking in and around a year of schools being closed.

Sorry I came across this on the main page - that statement is absolute scaremongering. The schools will open Sept, if not before. The world won't go on hold until a vaccine is developed. China is opening up again within 2 months of their lockdown being announced. Italian figures are beginning to dip downwards. LC and JC might not go ahead simply due to the reopening being too close to the exam dates, which I could understand, but I would be extremely surprised if the primary schools do not open again by June. Things are fraught enough without going around making sweeping statements like that, with zero information to back it up.

murphyebass

shesty wrote: »

Sorry I came across this on the main page - that statement is absolute scaremongering. The schools will open Sept, if not before. The world won't go on hold until a vaccine is developed. China is opening up again within 2 months of their lockdown being announced. Italian figures are beginning to dip downwards. LC and JC might not go ahead simply due to the reopening being too close to the exam dates, which I could understand, but I would be extremely surprised if the primary schools do not open again by June. Things are fraught enough without going around making sweeping statements like that, with zero information to back it up.

Your guess is they will open I. Sept.

Mine is that they won’t.

I basing my guess on listening to experts saying that this will most likely go on to early 2021 when a vaccine will be available.

It would be absolute and utter madness to reopen schools and workplaces before a vaccine is released. We’d be back to square one in days/weeks.

This isn’t going away overnight as much as we would all like it to. We need to be realistic about this.

I’m not scaremongering. I’m being realistic.

is_that_so

murphyebass wrote: »

Your guess is they will open I. Sept.

Mine is that they won’t.

I basing my guess on listening to experts saying that this will most likely go on to early 2021 when a vaccine will be available.

It would be absolute and utter madness to reopen schools and workplaces before a vaccine is released. We’d be back to square one in days/weeks.

This isn’t going away overnight as much as we would all like it to. We need to be realistic about this.

I’m not scaremongering. I’m being realistic.

It's not economically possible to do that anywhere and schools would be the least of our worries.

khalessi

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not economically possible to do that anywhere and schools would be the least of our worries.

Well they will amongst the higher worries since the children can spread this easily

murphyebass

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not economically possible to do that anywhere and schools would be the least of our worries.

Education and work have already taken huge strides in changing how they work day to day.

This has and will change the way we work forever more. And about time it did tbh.

Yes some businesses will close but others will survive and new ones will be born.

Education will continue to change with better engagement with IT being at the forefront of that change.

is_that_so

khalessi wrote: »

Well they will amongst the higher worries since the children can spread this easily

And again that's complete global economic meltdown, way way worse that 2008. It's the risk of that disproportionate cure approach. Aside from that lockdowns cannot be maintained for much beyond 4 weeks before you begin to lose them. The aim for all heath systems is to manage and reduce this to a controllable number.

is_that_so

murphyebass wrote: »

Education and work have already taken huge strides in changing how they work day to day.

This has and will change the way we work forever more. And about time it did tbh.

Yes some businesses will close but others will survive and new ones will be born.

Education will continue to change with better engagement with IT being at the forefront of that change.

Not if they are in complete lockdown for a full year. That would end all but the largest companies and bankrupt nearly all governments. Seriously, 2008 X 10 is what we would get. Hospitality is 150K, retail nearly 300K. Are they all going to just retrain?

murphyebass

is_that_so wrote: »

Not if they are in complete lockdown for a full year. Seriously, 2008 X 10 is what we would get.

Now that’s scaremongering.

shesty

murphyebass wrote: »

Your guess is they will open I. Sept.

Mine is that they won’t.

I basing my guess on listening to experts saying that this will most likely go on to early 2021 when a vaccine will be available.

It would be absolute and utter madness to reopen schools and workplaces before a vaccine is released. We’d be back to square one in days/weeks.

This isn’t going away overnight as much as we would all like it to. We need to be realistic about this.

I’m not scaremongering. I’m being realistic.

Whatever you think. The world is not that black and white.

is_that_so

murphyebass wrote: »

Now that’s scaremongering.

Nope, that's not something I do, ever. Even the likes of Lufthansa will not survive more than 3 months without enormous chunks of cash. The plan for countries is to exit this in some form as China are doing. They are now 2 months later looking at returning to normality. What we are doing now is less about saving lives than helping the health system cope.

rainbowtrout

murphyebass wrote: »

Your guess is they will open I. Sept.

Mine is that they won’t.

I basing my guess on listening to experts saying that this will most likely go on to early 2021 when a vaccine will be available.

It would be absolute and utter madness to reopen schools and workplaces before a vaccine is released. We’d be back to square one in days/weeks.

This isn’t going away overnight as much as we would all like it to. We need to be realistic about this.

I’m not scaremongering. I’m being realistic.

If lockdown remains until it is no longer spreading in the community then you can remove the lockdown and you don't need a vaccine to get back to normal. To lockdown until 2021 would bankrupt every country in the world and it would cause civil unrest in many different countries.

Experts have only said that a vaccine probably won't be available until 2021, no one is disputing that, but no one has said there will be a lockdown until then.

Aside from the benefits of lockdown in preventing virus transmission, there will come a point where the virus simply has no more hosts to infect. If the UK had gone with the original plan of herd immunity, it would have overwhelmed the NHS over there and thousands would have died unncessarily, but it would have happened within a few months.

Italy's infection rate, while still horrendous, is starting to dip. It has fallen two days running. If it keeps up for another few days it is likely that they have reached their peak, which was expected in the coming two weeks anyway. If that is the case then numbers will fall massively and the only ones infected will be the ones in hospitals which are away from the public. I expect their death rate will top 10,000, but they will be out of the worst of it by mid May I expect and normal life will start to resume there in June is my prediction. Their curve is starting to flatten. Ours has a bit to go yet.

jackboy

rainbowtrout wrote: »

If lockdown remains until it is no longer spreading in the community then you can remove the lockdown and you don't need a vaccine to get back to normal.

This plan cannot possibly work as we have not shut down flights from infected areas yet. We are continuously being seeded with the virus so as soon as we stop our version of lockdown the numbers will quickly spike again.

loyatemu

things won't go fully back to normal, they'll have to maintain a testing and contact tracing regime to ensure another outbreak doesn't occur, and travel restrictions will remain to places where outbreaks are ongoing. But apart from that, we will be able to reopen schools and businesses. (this is assuming the outbreak is brought under control throughout Europe).

murphyebass

loyatemu wrote: »

we will be able to reopen schools and businesses. (this is assuming the outbreak is brought under control throughout Europe).

I’m not doubting that this will happen but it’ll be a mistake just like the UK thinking they were above it all.

It will restart the whole thing all over again. More people die etc.

Again i hate this as much as the next person but this is a monumental problem.

rainbowtrout

jackboy wrote: »

This plan cannot possibly work as we have not shut down flights from infected areas yet. We are continuously being seeded with the virus so as soon as we stop our version of lockdown the numbers will quickly spike again.

It was reported this morning that Ryanair are expecting to ground all flights until May.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/lifestyle/travel/ryanair-coronavirus-flights-cancelled-dublinairport-17970155

Looking at Dublin Airport arrivals, the vast majority of flights are coming from Britain. There still needs to be some flights to allow Irish citizens to return home. My guess is that the vast majority of flights are relatively empty.



A friend of mine posted a pic on his FB the other night as he was on the way home from Austria from a curtailed ski trip, he was flying from Germany. He was at least two thirds of the way down the plane and all the other seats are empty. While I couldn't say for definite, I'd suspect that many of the flights are bringing in few passengers and it's mainly cargo on those flights at the moment.


Go on Flight Radar 24 and look at the flight map of Europe at the moment. Normally at this time of the day you can barely see the outline of Europe there are so many flights in the air. It's quite bare today and if you click on any of the large planes they are Fedex, UPS, DHL etc.

killbillvol2

Great that so many 'experts' have arrived to guide us on this topic.

This virus has done wonders for the education system. There's a growing cohort of people who couldn't tie their own shoelaces a few weeks ago who are now experts on viruses, pandemics and even economics.

Shn99

Measures in place until the 19th of April

TTLF

schools remain closed until the 19th...

but we're on easter break by then so, we would actually be returning April 27th

Millem

TTLF wrote: »

schools remain closed until the 19th...

but we're on easter break by then so, we would actually be returning April 27th

No we are finished Easter Holidays on the 19th April.

Notorious

TTLF wrote: »

schools remain closed until the 19th...

but we're on easter break by then so, we would actually be returning April 27th

Easter holidays finish on Friday 17th April, so the 20th would be our first day back. We all could've predicted that was going to happen. I can't imagine that we'll be ready to go back on the 20th April. We've yet to hear what measures the Dept of Education and Skills are going to apply to the exams.

TTLF

Notorious wrote: »

Easter holidays finish on Friday 17th April, so the 20th would be our first day back.

oh my god im so dumb lol

LuasSimon

Will schooling need to happen during June and July to catch up and students dont fall behind .

Shn99

Is joe mchugh due to speak at this conference?

km79

LuasSimon wrote: »

Will schooling need to happen during June and July to catch up and students dont fall behind .

I’m schooling every day as normal

deiseindublin

TTLF wrote: »

oh my god im so dumb lol

This is what we're like after 12 days, what'll we be like when you add a zero! :eek:

murphyebass

LuasSimon wrote: »

Will schooling need to happen during June and July to catch up and students dont fall behind .

They won’t be going back in June or July ffs. The can will be kicked and kicked. And rightly so.

Rosita

LuasSimon wrote: »

Will schooling need to happen during June and July to catch up and students dont fall behind .

Yeah, probably August too I'd say.

Rosita

jrosen wrote: »

This is simply not correct. Some kids will be at a huge disadvantage because their schools are not engaging. This idea that all teachers are sat at home prepping lessons, being available to students is BS. My son has one teacher that is responsive to email. Not a peep from the rest. He gets emailed work sporadically with zero guidance, zero instruction. Where as my friends daughter attends a different school and she has every teacher responsive, full class schedule. The difference between the schools is night and day.

The kids who dont care, who are not engaged in class and who have parents who dont encourage will probably not be too bothered with the lack of class or instruction, the kids who are really focused, engaged will probably stay but the kids who are capable but need guidance are the ones that will suffer the most. When schools resumes they will be expected to keep up with the class regardless, just as they are now.

This is what I said: The motivation and character of the student is the most significant arbiter of achievement and not available resources.

You might think that "this is simply not correct" but I've been a long time in the classroom and unpalatable as it is it is indeed true. The great frustration of teaching, at a philosophical level, is the inability to change this. Hold an extra class an lunch-time and you could predict who'll show up and who won't. And at the risk of stating the obvious it'll tend not to be the ones "who need most support". Ironically that's one of the reasons they need most support in the first place.

The funny thing is that I don't disagree with your view that: The kids who dont care, who are not engaged in class and who have parents who dont encourage will probably not be too bothered with the lack of class or instruction, the kids who are really focused, engaged will probably stay but the kids who are capable but need guidance are the ones that will suffer the most. When schools resumes they will be expected to keep up with the class regardless, just as they are now.

The only difference is that I think it is nearly impossible to remedy this whether they are in school or not. Students who need more support may suffer more from not being in school but I doubt it'll impact greatly on their relative place in the points' pecking order in the final analysis. Very hard to alter human nature.

Shn99

Varadkar himself said he hopes the LC can continue as normal in June but contingencies being examined

granturismo

Shn99 wrote: »

Is joe mchugh due to speak at this conference?

What conference?