CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

Axfrderr

BlackEdelweiss wrote: »

We might be hours from the apocalypse but can we not resort to calling the north part of the uk please. We have got this far, no point falling apart at the last minute!

The (sad) fact that they are is going to have a massive effect on how this plays out.

threeball

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Very much doubt it!?
That post is spreading quicker than any virus, the guy is a moron

If someone spreads info like that and hasn't the balls to show their face you know it's absolute bollocks. Probably just in the door from the pub.

Seamai

jackboy wrote: »

It is understandable. This could put a lot of the pubs and restaurants in Ireland out of business with the associated massive job losses. It’s hard for them to rationalize stopping doing something which is completely legal and which the government has not even suggested should stop.

Business is going to be affected regardless but by acting now and not next week we might manage to reduce the length of time places are closed and any damage done. I work in the catering supplies area and we've seen a pretty dramatic drop in business over the last week or so with many of our customers talking about closing but to quote an earlier poster here, I'd rather be laid off, than laid out.

PhantomHat

Scotty # wrote: »

Mortality rate up to 7.8%.

By the end of today, Europe could have more deaths than China. By this time next week Italy alone could have more deaths than China.

That's sobering. Although one has to keep in mind that depends on official figures from China. I suspect there are swathes of Chinese deaths that have been unaccounted for

meath4sam

Is it ok to bring the kids to the beach for a walk?

Gynoid

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

If we just look at death rates here then the problem is if it spreads through younger population, what percentage will need ICU treatment anyway? The hospital system will still get overwhelmed. Did I see stats from France or Italy where 50% of ICU patients are under 50/60?
I agree that older people should be isolated as much as is possible but so should the rest of the population- think of all the younger carers/staff working in nursing homes/hospitals etc. We know this virus is highly contagious so isolating one part of the population just won't work.
Also by your own graph there the mortality for 50-59 is 1%, not 0.5%.

The other problem here is we don't know what sort of longterm damage this virus is causing? Certainly some evidence that its leaving lasting damage, severe in some cases.


The UK are being extremely reckless and we need to cut all transport between there and Ireland. An all Island solution would be the ideal situation here.

Thanks for reply.
Yes, the long term damage is very troubling - maybe the most troubling. The fibrosis and interstitial lung disease that will kill more slowly. That is just a horrible thought.
While true ICUs might still be overwhelmed, would they not have slower over whleming if older and immuno compromised cohorts self isolated?

BlackEdelweiss wrote: »

While I dont agree fully with what you say, it is nice to see a well thought out point and not just rumour spreading and scare mongering

I am in an at risk category, (2 type 1 diabetics in the house) so how do we isolate just us. Does this mean my whole family must go into isolation and remain indoors. I can imagine my kids looking out the window at the neighbourhood kids all out playing while they have to stay in lockdown. Who would do my wifes job, they would get someone with no high risk contacts in to fill the position and then she would be out of a job. My job could be similar but I am able to work from home for now. If the schools reopened then would my kids miss out and fall behind on their education?

I personally believe that we have to fight this as a whole or else it will not be taken seriously enough.

My personal theory is that if everyone takes a reasonable level of care to not pass on or contract the virus from the 4 people closest to them, i.e. in front, behind, to the left and to the right we should be able to stop the spread of this. Fight this battle on a micro level, in your own 2 meter circle. Let the WHO and governments do their thing but we are all the frontline here and it is up to us.

Thanks for your reply.
Yes, being in a vulnerable cohort must be very scary right now. I am over 50 so technically speaking in a slightly more at risk group, though not worried per se. Also my husband and I work in the same business which may close soon and there would be zero income then. So I understand your fret very well. Home schooling children is also an idea for the moment.

Gooey Looey wrote: »

In Italy 12% needing respirators were under 50

Yes, thank for reply. That is frightening.

My main point really is I cannot see how complete shutdown can be sustained and so there may have to be a different longer term approach

Renjit

Day 2 of not going outside. Weather is nice.

threeball

Herd immunity works great.... in a herd. We're nothing like a herd. We don't constantly interact. Or say I'm going to hang out with this other herd for a while. We live longer so have more health implications as a result. In a herd the weakest nearly always die either through sickness or being picked off and eaten. The Brits should be delighted they are part of the herd.

Looptheloop30

The Italian plane video is from last November but sure don't let the truth get in the way off a good story

KathleenGrant

blade1 wrote: »

Nursing home just rang me.
Complete lockdown from tomorrow on.
I was the one family member allowed to see her so after tomorrow will I ever get to see her again? Who knows????

What's probably worse is what will be going through her head?
She's 87 and has Alzheimer's so anytime you explain something she can't grasp it.

She was in great form yesterday when I called to her even though the rest of the family haven't been able to call over the last week or so and she keeps asking why they aren't calling even though they speak to her on the phone.

I walked in yesterday and she put her two fists up to me.
I says to her "do you reckon you'd take me?
She goes " shur why wouldn't I" while laughing.

There's fight in the old girl yet.
I hope she gets through this!

Same phone call just now.
Been to see her every day for weeks and already she is forgetting my siblings and her grandkids.
We have a folder of photographs I go through every day trying to remind her of the family. Every day she remembers less and less.
I know her forgetting her family is not as important as keeping her and others safe medically but am in bits here.

The Black Oil

TheValeyard wrote: »

Anyone have to pics handy of the garda cars bought from Enterprise or Eurocar?

From the ES forum. https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112834501&postcount=2104

AmberGold

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

We had 400 ventilators ordered from Italy from before their outbreak. And now they’re “unsure if they will come”.
I would imagine they 100% won’t be coming.

Currently we have 250 ventilators with 6 on order ...

Brits crying out for some at any price to encourage manufacturing, Germany have 10,000 on order. We’re f***ed.

Multipass

gozunda wrote: »

I'd suggest that's incorrect. The approach here is delay.

The UK theory seems to be to let the infection run rampant through the population

This from the previous link



https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us

Considing the UK are going maverick on this and potentially risking other countries public health then for sure there is a definite element of" smug ‘we know better than you’ attitude"

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0314/1123204-britain-coronavirus/

Lumen

dougm1970 wrote: »

have to get my head around this.
wonder how many over-70s live in a household with under-70s...and how do over-70s work life without interacting in some way with under-70s ?
how do the ones living on their own get shopping say ?

My mum has been self isolating for over a week now, in the UK. She is mid-70s, retired, and has a history of respiratory problems, and is just getting over what she thinks is mild flu, but she's still very short of breath.

All of her friends of the same age (and some into their 80s) are carrying on as normal, but that's for another rant.

Freezer is well stocked and when she runs out of food her neighbours have offered to shop for her, or I'll do it online.

She's a bit bored but has a pile of books to catch up on, and spring is breaking so there's the garden.

Same situation with my next door neighbour in Ireland. Early 80s, well but not strong. She has family shopping for her and I'm on hand to help.

The people really at risk are those with existing conditions who feel they have no choice but to continue working in exposed environments, not least because they would have difficulting getting a new job.

I hope employers are going to be helpful.

Renjit

meath4sam wrote: »

Is it ok to bring the kids to the beach for a walk?

Do you have someone with medical conditions (respiratory, diabetes, cardiovascular, cancer etc)? Or someone in high risk area? Then probably not a good idea to bring kids to the beach. Maintain social distancing at all costs.

olestoepoke

Heres Johnny wrote: »

Very much doubt it!?
That post is spreading quicker than any virus, the guy is a moron

WhatsApp Image 2020-03-15 at 09.36.22.jpeg
WhatsApp Image 2020-03-15 at 09.36.22-2.jpeg

I was sent these this morning. Not sure how credible they are.

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I read a lot about ICU beds but I would imagine based on what other countries are doing, you don't need full ICU for this? You need respiratory equipment and that, but not the full shebang that keeps people alive after car crashes and that?

I see that China gave a lot of this stuff to Italy in a gesture of good will. Do you think Ireland will be able to source and set up this stuff next to normal beds?

An ICU bed is a concept. More important is the resources provided to the patient in that ICU bed. A patient on a ventilator will require extensive monitoring equipment, to ensure that the ventilation strategy is appropriate. This is a non-negotiable. Furthermore, their blood-pressures and heart rates are labile from the infection/on the ventilator. Hence, they need special monitoring equipment for the blood pressure. And then come the infusion required to maintain that blood pressure. And then if the kidneys aren’t working, you need to add in a dialysis machine. Finally, you need very experienced personnel to monitor the patient and to make the necessary adjustments to care. Unfortunately, much to the chagrin of every ICU staff in the country, it is not as simple as “plug them into the ventilator”. The “extras” are in fact essentials to ensure good outcomes (I.e. patient survival)

That said, I have faith in the resourcefulness and resilience of our hospital system. The critical care system in this country is top notch! And remember, even in the highest risk groups, most people will not reach the point of needing critical care (I.e.Special medicine through a drip to increase the blood pressure +/-ventilator+/-dialysis) Ireland will get through this crisis!

trisha e

Can we please ,please act responsibly for the sake of our medical staff. My daughter is a medic in one of our large hospitals. She never shows that she worrys but she is now. If they start getting were all were all in trouble. She drives to work and practices social distancing. She can't come and visit us now as two of my work colleagues are syptomatic.

caveat emptor

Short term pain = long term gain.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1239039283643768832?s=20

Tootsie_1

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

The Italian plane video is from last November but sure don't let the truth get in the way off a good story

Thats it I'm staying off Twitter everything is a lie:(

Seamai

meath4sam wrote: »

Is it ok to bring the kids to the beach for a walk?

I would think so unless there are any underlying issues, exercise and fresh air are important to stave off cabin fever, just keep a bit of distance from others. I'm heading out for a walk right now, won't be stopping for a coffee though.

Cody montana

I’ve

a sore throat
a pain in my head
a bad stomach

Think I’ve got it!
No wait, it was all that wine last night.

bilston

BlackEdelweiss wrote: »

We might be hours from the apocalypse but can we not resort to calling the north part of the uk please. We have got this far, no point falling apart at the last minute!

Well I suppose we live in the post factual era...

meath4sam

Renjit wrote: »

Do you have someone with medical conditions (respiratory, diabetes, cardiovascular, cancer etc)? Or someone in high risk area? Then probably not a good idea to bring kids to the beach. Maintain social distancing at all costs.

None of the above thank god.

Ger Roe

Looptheloop30 wrote: »

The Italian plane video is from last November but sure don't let the truth get in the way off a good story

True, it's the Frecce Tricolori, the Italian Air Force Display team. They perform that move at every airshow performance and did so in here in Bray, complete with the Pavaroti soundtrack.

If it gives people solace, fair enough, but it's another example of internet inaccuracy, thankfully this time it was for a good reason.

Lumen

Hugh Massive Globe wrote: »

An ICU bed is a concept. More important is the resources provided to the patient in that ICU bed. A patient on a ventilator will require extensive monitoring equipment, to ensure that the ventilation strategy is appropriate. This is a non-negotiable. Furthermore, their blood-pressures and heart rates are labile from the infection/on the ventilator. Hence, they need special monitoring equipment for the blood pressure. And then come the infusion required to maintain that blood pressure. And then if the kidneys aren’t working, you need to add in a dialysis machine. Finally, you need very experienced personnel to monitor the patient and to make the necessary adjustments to care. Unfortunately, much to the chagrin of every ICU staff in the country, it is not as simple as “plug them into the ventilator”. The “extras” are in fact essentials to ensure good outcomes.

That said, I have faith in the resourcefulness and resilience of our hospital system. The critical care system in this country is top notch! Ireland will get through this crisis!

Yeah, I briefly went down the rabbithole of "how hard is it to make a ventilator?". There's an instructables page!

https://instructables.com/id/The-Pandemic-Ventilator/

But the answer is "very", and "that's only part of the problem".

Gael23

Struggling to see the logic behind the UK approach. Seems to be all about protecting the economy

Genghis

I think a "lockdown" will happen.

What I am worried about is that general panic has consistently been moving at least one anxious step ahead of official policy.

It might even be causally related (announce a new measure out of prudence, a nervous populace read it as a sign of impending and certain doom).

I think a lockdown may well result in the 'worried well' panicking at home.
As the days go by, with social media being consumed continually, their anxiety could absolutely overwhelm the health service. Visits to GPs, demand for testing (put my mind at rest), visits to A&E, etc. As access to these services will be impeded by all this, panic grows, and becomes utterly uncontrollable. Meanwhile we lose any chance of delay for spreading the actual virus.

Imagine, for example,what way people will view hay fever this year. What might be taken in stride any other year could result in widespread panic and anxiety.

I genuinely wonder how the government plans to deal with avoiding mass panic.

Achasanai

dougm1970 wrote: »

have to get my head around this.
wonder how many over-70s live in a household with under-70s...and how do over-70s work life without interacting in some way with under-70s ?
how do the ones living on their own get shopping say ?

There's also the issue with not really knowing how the virus acts with regards to immunity and reinfection. As well as how to effectively isolate over 70s who require care in a nursing home/at home/hospital.



Regardless of how the health service deals with a 'herd immunity' programme that could see a severe spike in cases over the next few weeks.



None of us know how this is going, but holding up the US (with its health service, or rather lack of) and the Tory attitude to the NHS as a go-to model is seriously worrying.


The original poster might be right though: the UK and the US might be grand economically in 6 months/1 year, but with an absolutely decimated population and society.

retro:electro

caveat emptor wrote: »

Short term pain = long term gain.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1239039283643768832?s=20

This is encouraging but what happens when everything reopens again and the virus is still lingering