CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

wakka12

Deaths in Spain today have risen to +95

Spook_ie

Necro wrote: »

Isn't herd immunity something that takes years to build up?

The UK are expecting this to happen in a matter of months and condemning their elderly/ill citizens to death or permanent self isolation in the interim.

Herd immunity builds up as fast as people become infected and recover, but even if you had 65% of people acquiring herd immunity you could still catch it. Prime example measles with the antivaxxers we are at a growing risk of a measles epidemic

Hobgoblin11

RasTa wrote: »

Good to see the UK taking this seriously. I live in the UK...

This is from today

https://twitter.com/suzannamimi/status/1239182466168037378

The runners could be running for their lives soon !

dickdonk14

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Might have been trying to make them bigger

I enjoy fondling my sausage in tesco

BluePlanet

smelly sock wrote: »

Im thinking the brits have it spot on with herd immunity. What im witnessing in ireland today is a joke.

It's a pretty big bet they are making.
They are betting that people who have had covid-19 and recovered, now have a long term immunity.
But there's no evidence for that belief just yet.
In fact, there are reports of secondary infections and relapses out of China now.

So if the immunity of recoverees only lasts a couple days, a couple weeks or months, it means 'herd immunity' is not effective as those people just get re-infected again and again.

Additionally we don't know how quickly the virus will mutate.
There's been 1 mutation i think already and the mutation has made it more aggressive on our respiratory tract, in other words more deadly.
When it mutates does that make previous immunities from recoverees totally redundant and they all get infected again?

Too many unknowns and presumptions to put into a policy.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Strazdas wrote: »

Govt should be stressing that total nationwide "lockdown" and self isolation would only last for four weeks or so.

They need to keep reminding people that there will be a middle and an end to this crisis and things will eventually go back to normal.

It won't last four weeks. I'm thinking 10-16 is a more likely number.

coolshannagh28

jamesf85 wrote: »

How long do people think we’ll be on lock down before the economic hit outweighs deaths and we open everything back up?

Cynical but possible.

Strazdas

jamesf85 wrote: »

How long do people think we’ll be on lock down before the economic hit outweighs deaths and we open everything back up?

Four weeks.....maybe six weeks max

Most experts think total shutdown of a country for longer would be unsustainable (negatives begin to outweigh the benefits).

bekker

smelly sock wrote: »

Im thinking the brits have it spot on with herd immunity. What im witnessing in ireland today is a joke.

The UK appear to be basing their heard immunity figures on SARS 1, 2003, which yielded an R0 of 2-5 with herd immunity level at 50-80% of the population.

Comparing and contrasting, the WHO report on SARS 1 Transmission with SARS 2 COVID-19 Transmission as it is unfolding, I doubt that you could maintain the correctness of the UK approach you are advocating.

WHO
Transmission
An epidemic of SARS affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8000 cases in 2003. Since then, a small number of cases have occurred as a result of laboratory accidents or, possibly, through animal-to-human transmission (Guangdong, China).

Transmission of SARS-CoV is primarily from person to person. It appears to have occurred mainly during the second week of illness, which corresponds to the peak of virus excretion in respiratory secretions and stool, and when cases with severe disease start to deteriorate clinically. Most cases of human-to-human transmission occurred in the health care setting, in the absence of adequate infection control precautions. Implementation of appropriate infection control practices brought the global outbreak to an end.

wakka12

ITman88 wrote: »

This may not be the correct thread but do we do need to take perspective on this number?

On average 1100 people die every day in Spain, Will this number have increased this year?

Or will the cause of death be marked as Coronavirus for deaths that otherwise would of been attributed to pneumonia etc?

The question I’m asking is, has Coronavirus increased the death rate, or has the death rate remained the same and deaths that were attributed to something else are now attributed to Coronavirus?

And on this day almost 9% of those deaths so far in Spain are from coronavirus. So please just stop, I dont understand what you are trying to get out of by trolling on here, it is a serious and completely unprecedented situation. Are you in denial out of being panicked or something? Seriously, a large percentage of Europeans cant even go outdoors anymore, I think its you who needs to get a little bit of perspcective on whats happening not others in the thread

namloc1980

ITman88 wrote: »

This may not be the correct thread but do we do need to take perspective on this number?

On average 1100 people die every day in Spain, Will this number have increased this year?

Or will the cause of death be marked as Coronavirus for deaths that otherwise would of been attributed to pneumonia etc?

The question I’m asking is, has Coronavirus increased the death rate, or has the death rate remained the same and deaths that were attributed to something else are now attributed to Coronavirus?

This should answer your questions.

BLIZZARD7

ITman88 wrote: »

This may not be the correct thread but do we do need to take perspective on this number?

On average 1100 people die every day in Spain, Will this number have increased this year?

Or will the cause of death be marked as Coronavirus for deaths that otherwise would of been attributed to pneumonia etc?

The question I’m asking is, has Coronavirus increased the death rate, or has the death rate remained the same and deaths that were attributed to something else are now attributed to Coronavirus?

Are you actually being serious?

joe40

Stewball wrote: »

I see the closet eugenicists among us are making themselves known....

Explain, I haven't seen anyone suggest that

Strazdas

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It won't last four weeks. I'm thinking 10-16 is a more likely number.

No.....at that point, the negative impact on the country would be so bad that the downsides would be outweighing the worst of the virus (you'd have a traumatised and depressed nation and it couldn't be justified over such a long period)

Beasty

ricero wrote: »

Hearing of a lot of activity in the Curragh army base the past few days from a friend who lives in the area.

It's public knowledge they are being drafted in to help manage the situation in Ireland. Some are being trained up to deal with emergency phone calls. They could even do tests, or transport people to various isolation or medical facilities. A lot of Defence Force personnel will be trained in some very relevant skills

niallo27

Strazdas wrote: »

Four weeks.....maybe six weeks max

Most experts think total shutdown of a country for longer would be unsustainable (negatives begin to outweigh the benefits).

Exactly sometimes we need to think of the greater good.

CrabRevolution

johnmcdnl wrote: »

It appears we might have around 250, but some possible concerns that we mightn't have staff to operate more even if we ordered more.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/medics-raise-concerns-about-staffing-levels-as-hse-stocks-up-on-ventilators-1.4201544

The HSE would not disclose the number of ventilators in the Irish system but said that it had purchased an additional 12 portable ventilators and 60 intensive care unit (ICU) ventilators, though a series of doctors put the number at 250.

“We will run out of appropriate staff to operate the ventilators we have before we run out of ventilators,” said Michael O’Dwyer, head of department of anaesthesia and critical care at St Vincent’s University Hospital in Dublin.

I saw that figure in the paper and from working in the area can tell you it's either very conservative or badly out of date. There's a 3 figure number being ordered immediately, along with pumps etc.

Ger Roe

Strazdas wrote: »

Four weeks.....maybe six weeks max

Most experts think total shutdown of a country for longer would be unsustainable (negatives begin to outweigh the benefits).

Experts told us not to close the pubs.... right up until the present point wher the pubs themselves have now reached the conclusion that they can't stay open because the expert guidelines are unworkable.


Our politicians are relying on expert advice, but I would hope that they still challenge it before it is rolled out. I fear they are just blindly following in the knowledge that total acceptance means they have a fall guy to blame in the end.

Spook_ie

namloc1980 wrote: »

A quickly overwhelmed NHS means people needing urgent care for cardiac issues or car crashes for instance will die due to lack of capacity. And again there is no proof of natural immunity to this virus. Zero.

If there's no natural immunity gained from having the virus then eventually were all ****ed anyway.

niallo27

namloc1980 wrote: »

This should answer your questions.

How does it, are they corona only virus death notices or all deaths. He asked a responsible question in fairness.

Beasty

YFlyer wrote: »

Are all pubs closing? How about hotel bars?

Sobering thought

I suspect you'll still be able to get your fixes via Room Service

SharpshooterTom

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

This^ we are living through the biggest human history event since WWII. I didn't think I would see something like this for another few years - I thought we would have to wait for an AI related problem in the late 2020's at the earliest.

Typical recency bias. Hyperbole to the extreme.

We'll eventually see the full impact of this over the next 2 years sure, but 150,000-600,000 were killed during the 2009 Flu Pandemic and AIDS killed 32 million in the 20th century. Some perspective.

We'll see also what happens to this virus during the summer whether or not it will sustain its exponential rise.

niallo27

Spook_ie wrote: »

If there's no natural immunity gained from having the virus then eventually were all ****ed anyway.

Exactly we are completely ****ed if there is no immunity.

Ger Roe

Ger Roe wrote: »

No one knows..... do you?

As long as it takes. Lot of morons out there obviously can't be trusted. Lock it down for a few months. Fines for parents of kids congregating as if they're on school holidays etc.

Turtwig

Spook_ie wrote: »

If there's no natural immunity gained from having the virus then eventually were all ****ed anyway.

No we're not. There is no natural immunity to polio and small pox. These aren't really a problem though because we can inoculate ourselves with vaccines.

laugh

ITman88 wrote: »

This may not be the correct thread but do we do need to take perspective on this number?

On average 1100 people die every day in Spain, Will this number have increased this year?

Or will the cause of death be marked as Coronavirus for deaths that otherwise would of been attributed to pneumonia etc?

The question I’m asking is, has Coronavirus increased the death rate, or has the death rate remained the same and deaths that were attributed to something else are now attributed to Coronavirus?

People smarter than you are essentially shutting down their countries and economies due to this? They probably just forgot to consider that ....

BluePlanet

Spook_ie wrote: »

If there's no natural immunity gained from having the virus then eventually were all ****ed anyway.

No that's why we have science.
We can vaccinate.

wakka12

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075294/coronavirus-hong-kong-issues-red-travel-alert
Mandatory quarantine in Hong Kong for anybody flying from Uk, USA, or Ireland.

Morocco has suspended all international flights in and out of the country

KiKi III

Beasty wrote: »

It's public knowledge they are being drafted in to help manage the situation in Ireland. Some are being trained up to deal with emergency phone calls. They could even do tests, or transport people to various isolation or medical facilities. A lot of Defence Force personnel will be trained in some very relevant skills

I wonder are they good babysitters? Not even joking, our healthcare workers need somewhere reliable to leave their kids with schools and crèches closed.

Syncpolice

Is the UK staying open for business with Ireland

Company supplying goods to the UK