CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

Graces7

hotmail.com wrote: »

People may be delaying to go to hospital and making themselves sicker. It's unclear at the moment.

Yes the conscientious will do that.

voluntary

Deleted User wrote: »

What's happening now is those who are lucky enough to be able to work from home and isolate themselves will most likely avoid the virus, while those who cant and those muppets who still dont get it and are still going out and interacting will fall victim.

At this point they are saying some interaction is ok, crowds of less than 100. This is because they want those people to catch the virus, in small amounts of crowds so that it can be managed. It's not because it is safe to gather in crowds up to 100.

It seems like it. The official plan is to have the spread under control. The advice the gov is acting on says the people will get infected anyways, so they're trying to control the peace of the spread.

I'm not sure however if they understood the advice right, or if the advice itself is correct. There's definitely no consensus on how to act in the academic world.
The gov folks pick these advice which suit them best.

Ireland doesn't really have a huge army to control the crowds, so I guess it's better to have infections than civil unrest and economic slump in case everything would move into a lock down.

deisedevil

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I'm not getting this. Surely reducing spread now will in turn reduce the hight of the peak?

Ya, I agree.

Bob24

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Interesting when compared to Leo's advice which didn't factor in or mention 'herd immunity'. I wouldn't dare say which advice is right, and maybe they both are? Different approaches, different scenarios, different sized populations....

A teacher friend of mine across the water is content (for the moment) that the schools are open, not least because to the Vallance' logic mentioned above. When we discussed the Irish approach he understood, but thought it good "that Europe didn't have all its eggs in one basket" in its approach to fighting the virus.

I am not sure our government’s strategy is that much different from the UK’s (we are doing a bit more but the scope of our containment measures is still very limited compared to many Asian and few European countries). I think it might be more the way of saying things which is different (more direct in the U.K.) than the actual playbook.

My personal view is that in both cases we are headed for an Italian scenario though: at some point governments will have doctors telling them people are dying in hospitals en masse and that it is getting worse everyday, and then panic mode kicks in and the “herd immunity” plan goes to the bin and is replaced by a lockdown aimed at maximum containment.

voluntary

If people request a lock-down and when a government acts against people's will and IF the government's plan fails badly then people will take the government down and likely put some authoritarian populist fu..ks in charge which would be a disaster worse then the virus itself.

Rob A. Bank

otnomart wrote: »

"Four new genomes from Ireland were shared by National Virus Reference Laboratory, UCD and show multiple introductions, but primarily from the emerging European clade"

The map shows spread with origin China via Netherlands and via UK




https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1238597954593644545

Thank you very much for putting up these fascinating pages.

It appears that the first coronavirus appeared in Cork at the end of January, having been introduced here from the UK midlands. The UK seems to have an earlier direct connection to China.

I am no expert and perhaps I am wrong reading the maps, but the Netherlands strain seems to have infected northern Italy, and from there it appeared in Limerick and Dublin.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?

Is there any epidemiologist out there who would care to comment ?

TheValeyard

ax530

If people were responsible the gov would not need to implement a lockdown.
People can restrict movements & social interactions, can implement correct hygiene thus leaving to emergency services to deal with those who need it. Not going around breaking up groups of teenager telling them to go home.

murphaph

Pubs and clubs in Berlin must close from Tuesday. It sounds like Ireland needs to force pub closures as well judging by the reports of packed boozers on here. It makes a mockery of school closures to have heaving pubs. The schools are less of a breeding ground!

Jizique

voluntary wrote: »

If people request a lock-down and when a government acts against people's will and IF the government's plan fails badly then people will take the government down and likely put some authoritarian populist fu..ks in charge which would be a disaster worse then the virus itself.

Farage is still in the wings, getting interviewed regularly in flagship BBC news shows

Axfrderr

Larbre34 wrote: »

My own mother is 76 ...... The way she put it was, 'I'll take the precautions, I'm not going looking for it, but if I get it and die its not the end of the World, I've had a great life and I'd rather be gone than confined to the house for untold months'

You've given me a lump in the throat there, been thinking about my late parents a lot because of this business and my father would have said the exact same thing. :(:)

pjohnson

voluntary wrote: »

If people request a lock-down and when a government acts against people's will and IF the government's plan fails badly then people will take the government down and likely put some authoritarian populist fu..ks in charge which would be a disaster worse then the virus itself.

"Worse than the virus itself" what an embarassing claim.

Rob A. Bank

murphaph wrote: »

Pubs and clubs in Berlin must close from Tuesday. It sounds like Ireland needs to force pub closures as well judging by the reports of packed boozers on here. It makes a mockery of school closures to have heaving pubs. The schools are less of a breeding ground!

Perhaps we need hard hitting advertisements, like the graphic road safety ones, emphasizing that the packed boozer will directly lead to the extermination of some of our older and fragile relatives.

Also maybe the 100 people should have to sign into pubs and record their phone numbers. It would make future contact tracing less of a wild goose chase.

CinemaGuy45

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

.

Last thread closed on page 666 on Friday the 13th with 13 posts shy of 10'000.

Is Besty trying to mock the Gods?

Anyway I will not be going away everything paid for won't get a penny back but fook it not worth it.

My first post in new thread. Sorry to hear that CG. I’m resigned to not going on mine in May either and also taking the financial hit.

Just on finances, Drumpot mentioned setting money aside in thread one or two. He’s right. Perhaps posters don’t have much money to put aside but it might be worth curtailing what you do spend in whatever way you can. Those little things you buy like a coffee everyday or a subscription you have. Are electricity companies offering cash offers to switch.

Put some money away every week or month cos it’s gonna be tough for an unforeseeable amount of time.

Hope every is doing ok.

murphaph

murphaph wrote: »

Pubs and clubs in Berlin must close from Tuesday. It sounds like Ireland needs to force pub closures as well judging by the reports of packed boozers on here. It makes a mockery of school closures to have heaving pubs. The schools are less of a breeding ground!

It's about letting people catch the virus in small enough amounts so that our hospitals can cope.

So let the muppets go to the pub. I'll stay home, alive and virus free. I'd rather be one of the 20% who dont get it.

Longing

It's only a matter of time before pubs are closed. You only have to look what's happening in other countries. (Except UK) When it does happen we will definitely not get into the supermarkets because when pubs where closed on Good Fridays and on Holy Thursdays people buying drink trolleys full because pubs closed for one day. Madness.

On the UK situation. Boris Johnson speech reminded me of JFK famous phrase. It's not what your country can do for you. Its whats you can do for your country. In Boris case its give up your life.

voluntary

Poland closes down it's borders at midnight tonight. No crossing by air or train. Nationals and non-national residents may enter the country 'on wheels' only but will go through an health check and 14 days obligatory quarantine, no exceptions.

Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all but essential travel to Poland, due to the announcement that Poland will close its borders from midnight on Saturday 14 March in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Any British travellers in the country who wish to leave by air or rail should make arrangements to do so before then.Any British travellers that still wish to travel to Poland, should ensure they fall within the categories of traveller that will be permitted by the Polish Government (see Summary and Health)

https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/poland

threeball

Cartel Mike wrote: »

9/11 was a big deal too though.

If 9/11 happened in any other country bar America it would never be spoken about in the same terms it is. In some countries it would barely have registered such is the horror they have endured. Yes it was a terrible event but there's been far more terrible events since that barely get recognised

o1s1n

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

My first post in new thread. Sorry to hear that CG. I’m resigned to not going on mine in May either and also taking the financial hit.

Just on finances, Drumpot mentioned setting money aside in thread one or two. He’s right. Perhaps posters don’t have much money to put aside but it might be worth curtailing what you do spend in whatever way you can. Those little things you buy like a coffee everyday or a subscription you have. Are electricity companies offering cash offers to switch.

Put some money away every week or month go it’s gonna be tough for an unforeseeable amount of time.

Hope every is doing ok.

Try not to squirrel away too much though, businesses are going to be hit hard enough as is without everyone turning into a cash hoarder

Kunkka

So the UK approach has been totally debunked in a few shorts days, while they also appear to be thinking about doing a 180 on it now.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

If 9/11 happened in any other country bar America it would never be spoken about in the same terms it is. In some countries it would barely have registered such is the horror they have endured. Yes it was a terrible event but there's been far more terrible events since that barely get recognised

Were you alive before 9/11? It changed world drastically and forever. Changed it for the worst.

lawrencesummers

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Mass layoffs of casino and hospitality workers are happening already here in Vegas. Several workers at MGM properties have tested positive and nightclubs and restaurants are to close. Aside from the virus itself, the knock on effects of this will be devastating for so many people. At least the person earlier who works in a pub can go on the dole if he loses his job. No such security here.

https://www.8newsnow.com/coronavirus/mgm-resorts-letter-says-several-employees-test-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-addresses-layoffs/

Maybe those people will Now vote for socialist Bernie as opposed to the other lad.

Lord Trollington

Kunkka wrote: »

So the UK approach has been totally debunked in a few shorts days, while they also appear to be thinking about doing a 180 on it now.

Any links to it being debunked ? I've read some professors on twitter that are on the fence about it thinking that it may actually work.

In theory to me it sounds like a good idea. But I dont think it's really doable myself

caveat emptor

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Yeah, but it's one way of getting rid of certain older members of the shadow cabinet without taking the blame

Seriously though, Boris is only acting upon the strong advice given to him by his top medical advisors including & especially the chief medical advisor 'Sir Patrick Vallance', who said this ......

Sir Patrick Vallance, England’s chief scientific adviser, has defended the government’s approach to tackling the coronavirus, saying it could have the benefit of creating “herd immunity” across the population.

Critics including the former health secretary Jeremy Hunt have expressed concern about the decision to delay more drastic measures, such as school closures.

However, Vallance said the government’s approach was aimed at broadening the peak of the epidemic, and allowing immunity to build up among the population.

"What we don’t want is everybody to end up getting it in a short period of time so we swamp and overwhelm NHS services – that’s the flattening of the peak,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Interesting when compared to Leo's advice which didn't factor in or mention 'herd immunity'. I wouldn't dare say which advice is right, and maybe they both are? Different approaches, different scenarios, different sized populations....

A teacher friend of mine across the water is content (for the moment) that the schools are open, not least because to the Vallance' logic mentioned above. When we discussed the Irish approach he understood, but thought it good "that Europe didn't have all its eggs in one basket" in its approach to fighting the virus.

Going for herd immunity assumes no lasting damage. Even asymptomatic people have been found with "consolidations" in their chest. This is seriously worrying.

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/ryct.2020200034

Here's a good visualisation for the progression of the disease.



And a chart from a meta study of symptoms which shows the frequency of various symptoms.

twinytwo

Lord Trollington wrote: »

Any links to it being debunked ? I've read some professors on twitter that are on the fence about it thinking that it may actually work.

In theory to me it sounds like a good idea. But I dont think it's really doable myself

For it to work they have to be able to control the spread. Not sure if that's possible.

o1s1n

o1s1n wrote: »

Try not to squirrel away too much though, businesses are going to be hit hard enough as is without everyone turning into a cash hoarder

That’s true. I changed electricity supplier a few years ago and received 150 euro credit. I dunno if that deal is on offer by any companies anymore. Could you (not you personally) do without your music subscription for a while? Things like that.

I also cancelled sky sports yesterday cos F1 ain’t gonna happen now.

Kunkka

Lord Trollington wrote: »

Any links to it being debunked ? I've read some professors on twitter that are on the fence about it thinking that it may actually work.

In theory to me it sounds like a good idea. But I dont think it's really doable myself

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

That's just on their change in strategy. Don't have anything specific on the theory being debunked but it has been doing the rounds for sure.

Lord Trollington

My 4 year old has a chest cough and a small fever .
She has it the last 5 days. Reckon she picked it up in creche .

Should i just isolate her and ride it out?

steves2

o1s1n wrote: »

Try not to squirrel away too much though, businesses are going to be hit hard enough as is without everyone turning into a cash hoarder

I think people should spend as normally as possible if they can, I work in healthcare so I'll be doing overtime and I expect the government to be good for it so I'll be trying to spend as normal. If money stops circulating then jobs won't be viable.

YFlyer

Prisoners been released into society.