CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

xl500

Spain announces a State of Emergency Irish Government advised extreme caution and no non essential travel

But if you are on a flight to Spain today and you do the right thing to protect your community and not travel you either lose your money or pay extra to change as all flights on new dates are magically dearer now and you must pay the difference but if you happen to find a flight cheaper you will not get a refund of the difference wtf also your travel insurance will not refund you but if you travel to Spain you insurance won't cover you

So the only one doing anything to protect the country is the individual Aer Lingus or the Insurance companies bearing no cost

I believe at the least the burden should be shared or some people will still travel

Stay safe everyone 🙏💙

voluntary

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Zero chance if antibiotic cured him.

You don't know if antibiotic cured him or had any effect whatsoever.

kalkat2002

Brynn Delicious Cafeteria wrote: »

Soft approach to calm the masses, if they said we are shutting everything for 3 months there would be bedlam.

It will just be extended and extended and extended.

Totally agree...all parents we know this can easily be extended until summer if number of cases peak

threeball

[Deleted User] wrote: »

SARS was caused by a human with a virus coming in to contact with a chicken with a virus. Both viruses combined, mutated and became a new deadlier virus. I haven't looked covid-19 but I'm guessing surely it was a similar mutation rather than an animal passing it to a human?

Animal markets need to be banned, worldwide. That is for sure.

Possibly, I'm no expert. Only relaying what I've heard experts say. Either way we shouldn't be in close contact with these animals. The Asians need to have food standards like the western world. In the main they are rich enough to do so

Gynoid

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) intended to reduce infectious contacts between persons form an integral part of plans to mitigate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Although the potential benefits of NPIs are supported by mathematical models, the historical evidence for the impact of such interventions in past pandemics has not been systematically examined. We obtained data on the timing of 19 classes of NPI in 17 U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic and tested the hypothesis that early implementation of multiple interventions was associated with reduced disease transmission. Consistent with this hypothesis, cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPIs longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures.

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities downplayed their significance and allowed large public gatherings, notably a city-wide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm local medical and public health resources. In contrast, the first cases of disease among civilians in St. Louis were reported on October 5, and authorities moved rapidly to introduce a broad series of measures designed to promote social distancing, implementing these on October 7. The difference in response times between the two cities (≈14 days, when measured from the first reported cases) represents approximately three to five doubling times for an influenza epidemic. The costs of this delay appear to have been significant; by the time Philadelphia responded, it faced an epidemic considerably larger than the epidemic St. Louis faced. Philadelphia ultimately experienced a peak weekly excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) death rate of 257/100,000 and a cumulative excess P&I death rate (CEPID) during the period September 8–December 28, 1918 (the study period) of 719/100,000. St. Louis, on the other hand, experienced a peak P&I death rate, while NPIs were in place, of 31/100,000 and had a CEPID during the study period of 347/100,000. Consistent with the predictions of modeling, the effect of the NPIs in St. Louis appear to have had a less-pronounced effect on CEPID than on peak death rates, and death rates were observed to climb after the NPIs were lifted in mid-November

This study seems to show that early interventions have a strong effect on peak mortality, but a much lesser effect on overall mortality. The overall effect is still relevant though, even if less. (in my opinion)

What is the best public policy in this instance? It seems to be a choice between bad and a bit worse. I suppose the thing is to go with the slightly less bad. Though there will be suffering regardless.

This casual idea floating about that Boris Johnson - who I know very little about to be honest, just like I know very little about Donald Trump, as I do not follow the daily politics soap opera scene - is some kind of mad eugenicist accepting a toll on the underclasses is as far into conspiracy theory territory as I have seen. And believe me I have gone pretty far into that scene online.
That so many casually entertain the idea that there is some truth in this is odd to me. You might as well say he is a satanic blood sucking shape shifter as suggest what is being suggested.
Perhaps it is simply that there are different kinds of medical advice?

If we are going the isolation and contain route though, there needs to be more done - income support so that almost all people can actually stay at home. Otherwise the ones who have to go out through economic necessity are the fodder.

ceadaoin.

pc7 wrote: »

I’d say Vegas must be rampant with the amount of tourists it’s had the last few weeks. Mind yourself.

I think it's been rampant for a month or more tbh. Same as all the US. I live here, therefore like most locals I dont go to the strip. People who work there on the other hand obviously have no choice

namloc1980

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand closing schools and colleges until 29th of March. The virus will still be around on the 30th of March.

They won't reopen at the end of march.

Sittingpretty

Where we will be by March 29th terrifies me.

Naggdefy

Naggdefy wrote: »

Alive here since the mid 70s. Chernobyl had a huge impact in 1986. Able Archer 1983 was 1,000 times more dangerous than 9/11 but few knew about it. Still don't.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83

9/11 involved the death of 3,000 first world deaths and received disproportionate coverage.

I'm not talking specifically about the number of deaths. It's the consequences of the event that have changed the world for the worse.

threeball

xl500 wrote: »

Spain announces a State of Emergency Irish Government advised extreme caution and no non essential travel

But if you are on a flight to Spain today and you do the right thing to protect your community and not travel you either lose your money or pay extra to change as all flights on new dates are magically dearer now and you must pay the difference but if you happen to find a flight cheaper you will not get a refund of the difference wtf also your travel insurance will not refund you but if you travel to Spain you insurance won't cover you

So the only one doing anything to protect the country is the individual Aer Lingus or the Insurance companies bearing no cost

I believe at the least the burden should be shared or some people will still travel

Stay safe everyone ðŸ™ðŸ’™

I don't get this. People worrying about 100 euro flights rather than catching or spreading a deadly disease. Same people would drop it out of their pocket pulling up change for a pint and not bat an eyelid. People need to get a grip. Get off the flights, shut the airports, do business through Skype and FaceTime. Unless you are travelling home then stay put.

voluntary

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand closing schools and colleges until 29th of March. The virus will still be around on the 30th of March.

Remember when they said the USC would only be a temporary measure? :pac:

threeball

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm not talking specifically about the number of deaths. It's the consequences of the event that have changed the world for the worse.

That wasn't because of the event. It was because the country it happened to can't take it when people they've killed 10s of thousands of strike back so they go kill 100s of thousands. Have we ever seen America take proportionate action? That happens in Germany, Spain, Australia or even the UK, what would the result have been. A few days national mourning and in-flight measures to prevent it happening again.

Rob A. Bank

threeball wrote: »

China and other Asian countries need to sort that mess out before a highly deadly strain mutates and jumps from animal to human

They are not the only ones who need to sort things out then.

A farm boy in Kansas was infected from pigs with swine flu. He then joined the US army to fight in WW1 and is thought to have started the ‘Spanish’ flu which killed 50 – 100 million people.

The 2009 flu pandemic also started in North America, infecting 31,000 people with 1,900 deaths. 50% of breeding pigs in the US have been exposed to influenza virus.

Fact is that measles, smallpox, influenza, HIV, diphtheria, the common cold and tuberculosis all originated in animals.

Viruses have been making the jump from animals to humans for millennia and it can happen anywhere.

It might even happen here with the recent outbreak of avian influenza in our chicken farms.

Going xenophobic about a viral outbreak solves nothing... the virus is here and we must deal with it.

lawred2

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand closing schools and colleges until 29th of March. The virus will still be around on the 30th of March.

I understand it less considering all the pubs are live and kicking..

All public playgrounds being closed as well.

Gotta keep the adult playgrounds open though at all costs..

Strawberry Milkshake

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

That’s true. I changed electricity supplier a few years ago and received 150 euro credit. I dunno if that deal is on offer by any companies anymore. Could you (not you personally) do without your music subscription for a while? Things like that.

I also cancelled sky sports yesterday cos F1 ain’t gonna happen now.

How long did it take I must do that now you mention it

Charles Babbage

Modelling of peak mortality needs to take into account that if the health system gets overwhelmed then the mortality rate becomes a multiple of what it need be. It isn't just a question of time.

Also with a bit more time therapies are tested and these also help.

facehugger99

Multipass wrote: »

Don’t forget Ebola - people eating bats again. If the world could just agree that bats are off the menu, that would help.

Why do they have to be so god-dammed tasty though?

threeball

threeball wrote: »

That wasn't because of the event. It was because the country it happened to can't take it when people they've killed 10s of thousands of strike back so they go kill 100s of thousands. Have we ever seen America take proportionate action? That happens in Germany, Spain, Australia or even the UK, what would the result have been. A few days national mourning and in-flight measures to prevent it happening again.

Ok, 9/11 was not a world changing event. My bad.

whisky_galore

Virus parties, fcuking hell.
These Me Feiners will be the death of us.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/professor-slams-virus-parties-by-students-39044057.html

whisky_galore

whisky_galore wrote: »

Virus parties, fcuking hell.
These Me Feiners will be the death of us.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/professor-slams-virus-parties-by-students-39044057.html

Not at all. We need these people to catch it. We are in the "let the muppets catch it first" stage.

EmmetSpiceland

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I don't understand closing schools and colleges until 29th of March. The virus will still be around on the 30th of March.

The Easter holidays “kick off” then so the schools will be closed for another couple of weeks after regardless.

facehugger99

Sittingpretty wrote: »

Where we will be by March 29th terrifies me.

You're going skydiving?

threeball

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

They are not the only ones who need to sort things out then.

A farm boy in Kansas was infected from pigs with swine flu. He then joined the US army to fight in WW1 and is thought to have started the ‘Spanish’ flu which killed 50 – 100 million people.

The 2009 flu pandemic also started in North America, infecting 31,000 people with 1,900 deaths. 50% of breeding pigs in the US have been exposed to influenza virus.

Fact is that measles, smallpox, influenza, HIV, diphtheria, the common cold and tuberculosis all originated in animals.

Viruses have been making the jump from animals to humans for millennia and it can happen anywhere.

It might even happen here with the recent outbreak of avian influenza in our chicken farms.

Going xenophobic about a viral outbreak solves nothing... the virus is here and we must deal with it.

American health standards for food are also notoriously low. The UK will be having their chlorinated chicken shortly. That only goes to show that higher food standards give us a better chance of avoiding these events. I hardly think it's racist to say such a thing.

whisky_galore

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not at all. We need these people to catch it. We are in the "let the muppets catch it first" stage.

You don't really grasp the concept of flattening the curve at all.

tikkahunter

whisky_galore wrote: »

Virus parties, fcuking hell.
These Me Feiners will be the death of us.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/professor-slams-virus-parties-by-students-39044057.html

Hopefully natural selection will take over there.

kalkat2002

EmmetSpiceland wrote: »

The Easter holidays “kick off” then so the schools will be closed for another couple of weeks after regardless.

They split the cake to avoid fast indigestion..

Gynoid

threeball wrote: »

That wasn't because of the event. It was because the country it happened to can't take it when people they've killed 10s of thousands of strike back so they go kill 100s of thousands. Have we ever seen America take proportionate action? That happens in Germany, Spain, Australia or even the UK, what would the result have been. A few days national mourning and in-flight measures to prevent it happening again.

I agree that becuase it happened in the US it had far bigger consequences globally and made a much bigger imprint on the consciousness. Maybe it is because America has so long been the iconic symbol of the modern world, and we all imbibed it from childhood with so much of our tv and movies and general social influence coming out of there. If it had happened in Bejing or Manila or Auckland or Buenos Aires it would have been a far shorter shock, albeit large at the moment. The response was savage in the longer term, especially what happened in the Middle East - the death toll there from direct aggression and sanctions is enormous, in the millions. And this has left hardly any psychic scar on the global consciousness. It is an odd feature of the story. In a sci fi plot the resultant savagery would be because the elite were hit with audacity in their heart.

namloc1980

whisky_galore wrote: »

Virus parties, fcuking hell.
These Me Feiners will be the death of us.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/professor-slams-virus-parties-by-students-39044057.html

Just very selfish behaviour.

.

Naggdefy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm not talking specifically about the number of deaths. It's the consequences of the event that have changed the world for the worse.

In my book no way will 9/11 have the same effect as this viral outbreak. By the time the US we're bombing Afghanistan in October 2011 the hysteria around 9/11 had blown over. There was a week to ten days post 9/11 of what's going to happen next. When people realised it was a relatively random attack calm restored. We haven't even begun the increase in cases and deaths here and people are sick with stress, panic buying etc.

9/11 is a bigger deal for US centric thinking people who are into shows like Homeland etc.

Bob24

threeball wrote: »

I don't get this. People worrying about 100 euro flights rather than catching or spreading a deadly disease. Same people would drop it out of their pocket pulling up change for a pint and not bat an eyelid. People need to get a grip. Get off the flights, shut the airports, do business through Skype and FaceTime. Unless you are travelling home then stay put.

Also some people don’t understand one thing: if you ask individuals to bear the cost it is a fraction of their budget and it was already budgeted for (what they are losing is a holiday, the money itself was gone and budgeted for already so there is no impact on their financial bottom line).

While if you ask airlines to bear the cost it is 100% of their income gone, and the refunds are an unplanned and massive loss which they have to take a a time when they are getting very few new bookings ie no cash flow. It would just drive many of them to bankruptcy.

Plus at the end of the day flights will eventually get cancelled as countries close borders or due to a lack of bookings, so airlines will get the hit then.