Impact of COVID-19 on motor industry?

ELM327

galwaytt wrote: »

Anybody who thinks they can predict like that is off the wall. Nobody, nobody has any idea how anything will play out.

Consider (in this Irish context):

• Covid-19 and how that unfolds, or reoccurs or....or....
• Economy - fast restart, slow restart, no restart ?
• Oil prices - Up, Down, Up, Down.... ??
• Having a Government......will we ? and if so, there's the Greens. If they're in, economy goes down (more taxes), if they're out, the economy goes.... ?
• Maybe we're looking at another election
• Dang, nearly forgot Brexit - whodathunkit ?
• Currency. Euro strong or weak ?

Any one thing on there has the potential to be great/awful. Anyone who thinks they can with any degree of confidence predict what the future will be like on any one of those, let alone the bundle of them..............should be a millionaire by Monday.

Or, maybe, not.

Agree.
I do a lot of macro economic analysis as part of my role in credit risk, so this is to the fore of my day to day existence at the moment!


People have forgotten about Brexit, which will happen at the end of the year as it stands, and it's looking to currently be a hard brexit with tariffs unless a deal is rushed through.


The best set of numbers to gauge the current status at are the PMI stats, the level of unemployment/state subsidy and how much it's costing.


Very few people are going to commit to a 4 year HP or 3 year PCP on a new car in the next few weeks.

ELM327

Augeo wrote: »

There's nothing on that list that has the potential to be great.

It's ironic you reckon "Anyone who thinks they can with any degree of confidence predict what the future will be like on any one of those, let alone the bundle of them..............should be a millionaire by Monday." yet come out with this " there's the Greens. If they're in, economy goes down (more taxes)"

I mean, the greens themselves have said this.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

I mean, the greens themselves have said this.

All of the main parties are in in the realisation of carbon taxes rising except Sinn Fein iirc.

The claim was the economy will "go down" due to more taxes. the greens haven't said the economy will go down. I know you don't understand stuff for whatever reason frequently but you really missed the point there.

ELM327

Augeo wrote: »

All of the main parties are in in the realisation of carbon taxes rising except Sinn Fein iirc.

The claim was the economy will "go down" due to more taxes. the greens haven't said the economy will go down. I know you don't understand stuff for whatever reason frequently but you really missed the point there.

Are you expecting a serious response with that not so thinly veiled barb?

You just seem to miss the point frequently, you replied with a patronising "I mean, the greens themselves have said this" ........ they did not say the economy would go down
I dunno what you mean by a thinly veiled barb tbh but I'm not going to respond with kid gloves to someone patronising me.

ELM327

Ugh.
The greens were in favor of higher carbon taxes, punitive taxes on motorists and higher incentivization to use public transport.
If my comment earlier was deemed as patronizing to you then of course I apologize as that was not my intention at all. But in the same vein, life must be very difficult for you if that is your threshold of causing offence

Additionally kindly elaborate on why/where I "miss the point frequently"

CrabRevolution

ELM327 wrote: »

Ugh.
The greens were in favor of higher carbon taxes, punitive taxes on motorists and higher incentivization to use public transport.
If my comment earlier was deemed as patronizing to you then of course I apologize as that was not my intention at all. But in the same vein, life must be very difficult for you if that is your threshold of causing offence

Additionally kindly elaborate on why/where I "miss the point frequently"

Those things alone aren't enough to cause a recession. If there were no virus. our economy was still "booming" and the greens entered government, do you really think carbon and motoring taxes would somehow erase all our economic growth and cause a downturn?

Unless you've some other definition of "economy goes down"

challengemaster

Augeo wrote: »

The claim was the economy will "go down" due to more taxes. the greens haven't said the economy will go down.

So things have to be spelled out for you or what?

It's pretty widely accepted you can't tax your way out of a recession - increasing taxes during a recession only further damages the economy because people have less money in their pocket to promote spending.

More taxes mean the economy will suffer. It doesn't need someone to come out and say specifically that.

challengemaster

challengemaster wrote: »

So things have to be spelled out for you or what?

It's pretty widely accepted you can't tax your way out of a recession - increasing taxes during a recession only further damages the economy because people have less money in their pocket to promote spending.

............

Increasing carbon taxes isn't taxing your way out of a recession.



...

challengemaster wrote: »

..........More taxes mean the economy will suffer. It doesn't need someone to come out and say specifically that.

It very much depends on what "more taxes" are. An increase in CAT for example would make the economy suffer?

An increase in carbon tax when fuel prices are low?

What's amusing is that someone claims "Nobody, nobody has any idea how anything will play out" in a time when over a million people are out of work due to a pandemic. The economy will "go down" due to Covid 19, that's a fooking certainty........... changes in tax will have sfa effect in comparison, that may not be widely accepted but it's worth spelling out to folk like you.

ELM327

challengemaster wrote: »

So things have to be spelled out for you or what?

It's pretty widely accepted you can't tax your way out of a recession - increasing taxes during a recession only further damages the economy because people have less money in their pocket to promote spending.

More taxes mean the economy will suffer. It doesn't need someone to come out and say specifically that.

He (augeo) seems to miss the point repeatedly, but I agree with you, you should lower taxes in a recession. We never get the hang of countercyclical spending in ireland

Charles Babbage

ELM327 wrote: »

He (augeo) seems to miss the point repeatedly, but I agree with you, you should lower taxes in a recession. We never get the hang of countercyclical spending in ireland

You should put money into the economy in a recession. The government is doing this big time, cutting taxes as well would not be reasonable.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

He (augeo) seems to miss the point repeatedly, but I agree with you, you should lower taxes in a recession. We never get the hang of countercyclical spending in ireland

Lol...... Very witty.
You might think up something original some time...... 101€10$1

Top Dog

Augeo wrote: »

An increase in carbon tax when fuel prices are low?

Crude may be low, but that hasn't really transferred to the forecourts - save a limited few retailers.

SummerK

Hertz declares Bankruptcy in USA and Canada

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0523/1140153-hertz-us-canada/

SummerK

French minister says Renault could disappear and Nissan may cut 20,000 jobs.
Tough time for auto industry in coming days.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0522/1140017-renault-and-nissan-in-jobs-warning/

Rx713B

bazz26 wrote: »

Have you asked the dealer for it back?

Yes you are entitled to your deposit back

jmreire

Top Dog wrote: »

Crude may be low, but that hasn't really transferred to the forecourts - save a limited few retailers.

Thats largely due to taxation....which has not changed, regardless of the crude prices. Diesel here in South Tipp is averaging €1.11 / Ltr. down from €1.35 in January. So we enjoy it while we can;););)

Top Dog

jmreire wrote: »

Thats largely due to taxation....which has not changed, regardless of the crude prices. Diesel here in South Tipp is averaging €1.11 / Ltr. down from €1.35 in January. So we enjoy it while we can;););)

Tax is based on the cost price, and all forecourts pay the same for that.

There's no way to hide the fact that some forecourts are simply refusing to pass on the savings. A friend shared a photo the other day (think it was Sunday) of a Top garage in the midlands - Diesel 107.9 & Unleaded 112.9. Meanwhile I filled my car in Cork city last night for 125.8/l for unleaded. The cheapest I've seen on my travels around here is 115.0 for Diesel & 125.0 for unleaded. Tax does not account for a 12c/l difference in price.

jmreire

Top Dog wrote: »

Tax is based on the cost price, and all forecourts pay the same for that.

There's no way to hide the fact that some forecourts are simply refusing to pass on the savings. A friend shared a photo the other day (think it was Sunday) of a Top garage in the midlands - Diesel 107.9 & Unleaded 112.9. Meanwhile I filled my car in Cork city last night for 125.8/l for unleaded. The cheapest I've seen on my travels around here is 115.0 for Diesel & 125.0 for unleaded. Tax does not account for a 12c/l difference in price.

Really? In that case,it just goes to show ( once again, if you needed to be shown) what a rip -off Country we live in....:mad:

Rows Grower

Top Dog wrote: »

Tax is based on the cost price, and all forecourts pay the same for that.

There's no way to hide the fact that some forecourts are simply refusing to pass on the savings. A friend shared a photo the other day (think it was Sunday) of a Top garage in the midlands - Diesel 107.9 & Unleaded 112.9. Meanwhile I filled my car in Cork city last night for 125.8/l for unleaded. The cheapest I've seen on my travels around here is 115.0 for Diesel & 125.0 for unleaded. Tax does not account for a 12c/l difference in price.

You're worse for supporting the rip off merchants, you should have just thrown in a tenner to get you somewhere cheaper, if enough people did that they wouldn't be long adjusting their prices.

jmreire

Rows Grower wrote: »

You're worse for supporting the rip off merchants, you should have just thrown in a tenner to get you somewhere cheaper, if enough people did that they wouldn't be long adjusting their prices.

In normal time's and freedom of movement, I'd say that is what would happen, people will move to the best price filling station, but we are not in normal times now. And while the situation has improved a bit, we are still a long way off the normal, so unless you are an "essential worker", you will be caught by the 5 klm rule. And this situation is being taken advantage of by filling stations. Only positive thing about it is fuel consumption has dropped. Was speaking to a friend yesterday and he told me that it's now 3 mths since he filled his car, and it's still 3/4 full.......once a week shopping trip, and thats it. My nearest fuel station is about 1/2 mile from my house, and while going there during the week to get petrol for the lawnmower, I got stopped by the Guards ( on the way there and again on the way back) asking where I was going and why.

PsychoPete

Rows Grower wrote: »

You're worse for supporting the rip off merchants, you should have just thrown in a tenner to get you somewhere cheaper, if enough people did that they wouldn't be long adjusting their prices.

I fill up my car in the same petrol station everytime because I know the fuel is good quality, at the other side of the town it's cheaper but I've worked on enough cars resulting from bad fuel to know cheapest isn't always best

Rows Grower

jmreire wrote: »

In normal time's and freedom of movement, I'd say that is what would happen, people will move to the best price filling station, but we are not in normal times now. And while the situation has improved a bit, we are still a long way off the normal, so unless you are an "essential worker", you will be caught by the 5 klm rule. And this situation is being taken advantage of by filling stations. Only positive thing about it is fuel consumption has dropped. Was speaking to a friend yesterday and he told me that it's now 3 mths since he filled his car, and it's still 3/4 full.......once a week shopping trip, and thats it. My nearest fuel station is about 1/2 mile from my house, and while going there during the week to get petrol for the lawnmower, I got stopped by the Guards ( on the way there and again on the way back) asking where I was going and why.

I have to travel more than 5km to the nearest pump but there is no way I'd be filling up if I was being ripped off.

Eggs For Dinner

Had a look around the showroom of a car I'm interested in for July. No queue or fuss, salesman behind a perspex screen. Was allowed sit in to various models without bother. Salesman was there to answer any questions without getting close. I didn't want a test drive today, so don't know how that would have worked. I did advise the salesman that the hand sanitiser was the wettest I've ever come across and people are going to ruin the lovely new cars on display

sc86

L-M wrote: »

Just as a side note, can we just tell all our family and friend that this is NOT the time to be browsing for your car for “next year”. Honestly had a family of four try to come into the showroom yesterday with the above reason, lunacy.

i cant understand the comments in relation to this post , you should have ran them , wrong on so many levels , and as a former car salesman i know exactly how annoying that would be.
I dont think people that dont work in the motor trade really understand this , even outside the pandemic element ,that family are 95 perecent certain to be waisting your time for that 30 mins while you miss out on the genuine buyers who actually need help.

jmreire

PsychoPete wrote: »

I fill up my car in the same petrol station everytime because I know the fuel is good quality, at the other side of the town it's cheaper but I've worked on enough cars resulting from bad fuel to know cheapest isn't always best

Bad fuel has always been a issue, and many's the story going round about the guy who boasted about saving 5c per ltr at such and such a filling station, only later having to replace the whole fuel system in the car at a cost of thousands of €'s. Personally, I only use the one filling station, and at this stage ( even pre Covid-19) I would not need to drive the car a greater distance than a full tank could handle. But I can understand where Rows Grower is coming from...it annoys the hell out of me too as a motorist to be getting screwed at every turn.

L-M

sc86 wrote: »

i cant understand the comments in relation to this post , you should have ran them , wrong on so many levels , and as a former car salesman i know exactly how annoying that would be.
I dont think people that dont work in the motor trade really understand this , even outside the pandemic element ,that family are 95 perecent certain to be waisting your time for that 30 mins while you miss out on the genuine buyers who actually need help.

Ive come to the conclusion that the posters on here aren’t the “general public” that I was initially referring to, because that’s the only way I can make sense of the backlash I received.

Some of the stories from around the trade this week would honestly make you wish you were still at home, alas, on we go.

Top Dog

Rows Grower wrote: »

You're worse for supporting the rip off merchants, you should have just thrown in a tenner to get you somewhere cheaper, if enough people did that they wouldn't be long adjusting their prices.

Really? I'm worse?
I pass 7 stations on my route to work, 3 others if I divert slightly, and this is the second cheapest of them. I've been using the same station for over 2 years and traditionally it's always been the cheapest (excluding an Amber station) and I've never had an issue with fuel quality. It's also the cheapest tasty coffee on my route. Doing 600km a week I've little choice.

mgn

https://www.ncts.ie/booking

Some NCT centres to open from next Monday.

ILikeBoats

Are the lifts back working so?

mgn

https://www.ncts.ie/1115#:~:text=COVID%2019%20Update%3A%20NCTS%20to,the%20reopening%20of%2015%20centres.

Jimmy Garlic

There hasn’t been a motor industry in Ireland since 1984 when ford shut down its plant in cork. If the car sales market in Ireland can’t float even though the table has been tilted to their advantage by the insurance cartel etc then so be it.

ILikeBoats

No, still just a few of the centres have operational lifts.
They're opening up centres which can't complete full tests, and I can only assume there's massive backlogs.
Should be interesting.

I had a partial test completed, got a slot in Northpoint for the rest of it and it was cancelled due to COVID. Going by the date given by NCTS I can't book it in as test was due in April. I'll get it done eventually I suppose!

hoodie6029

https://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/scrappage-scheme-for-used-cars-is-badly-needed-in-order-to-cut-emissions-39254130.html

Looks like dealers are looking for a scrappage scheme to help them out of the sales drop.

saabsaab

hoodie6029 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/scrappage-scheme-for-used-cars-is-badly-needed-in-order-to-cut-emissions-39254130.html

Looks like dealers are looking for a scrappage scheme to help them out of the sales drop.

Every sector is looking for something. Unless there is massive euro wide stimulus to governments I doubt it will happen.

swarlb

Jimmy Garlic wrote: »

There hasn’t been a motor industry in Ireland since 1984 when ford shut down its plant in cork. If the car sales market in Ireland can’t float even though the table has been tilted to their advantage by the insurance cartel etc then so be it.

Don't be so pedantic, you know quite well what people on here mean when they refer to 'the motor industry in Ireland'
There are tens of thousands of people affected by this, from the people who buy and sell cars, new or used, to the people behinds spare parts counters, delivery drivers, people sitting at reception desks, mechanics, painters, welders, panel beaters, suppliers of spare parts, accessories, paints, refinishing materials, and all those associated with the general maintenance of garages, from the people who sweep the floor, to the person who maintains garage equipment.... and not forgetting people who deliver food and beverages.... and many more that I've probably forgotten.
They are ALL INDUSTRIOUS in keeping this system afloat.....

Let's just call it the Motor Trade.... just to keep you happy.

As an aside there is a Bus manufacturing/assembly plant just outside Dublin....so maybe this counts as an 'industry'

macnug

Anybody in the trade notice a dip in sales yet or is demand still strong? In the market for a 2-3 year old car but finding it difficult to find what I want locally and when I do prices are a lot dearer than earlier in the year.

Toyotafanboi

Service with ourselves still booked out for approx a fortnight. Steady stream of used cars selling which seems promising, new cars are apparently slow to move though.

L-M

Word from around the country is it's very, very busy on second hands. I suppose people not being able to shop for 2 months and the lack of a viable UK option at the minute is probably helping that.

New for us is starting to tip away gradually again. Funnily enough three customers i met yesterday didn't actually realise we opened two weeks ago and said they'd have been in sooner, so there's a bit of that. And also people are afraid to travel still, so there's that too.

jmreire

swarlb wrote: »

Don't be so pedantic, you know quite well what people on here mean when they refer to 'the motor industry in Ireland'
There are tens of thousands of people affected by this, from the people who buy and sell cars, new or used, to the people behinds spare parts counters, delivery drivers, people sitting at reception desks, mechanics, painters, welders, panel beaters, suppliers of spare parts, accessories, paints, refinishing materials, and all those associated with the general maintenance of garages, from the people who sweep the floor, to the person who maintains garage equipment.... and not forgetting people who deliver food and beverages.... and many more that I've probably forgotten.
They are ALL INDUSTRIOUS in keeping this system afloat.....

Let's just call it the Motor Trade.... just to keep you happy.

As an aside there is a Bus manufacturing/assembly plant just outside Dublin....so maybe this counts as an 'industry'

As you point out,the motor trade ( business, industry call it what you will ) does support a large Nr of jobs, both direct and indirectly. That's a fact. Its also a fact that it is not the only business supporting many jobs, directly and indirectly, but what they all have in common now is an uncertain future, and thats a fact that that is hard to argue with....the full effect's of Covid-19 are still unfolding will not be known for quite awhile yet. That the Dealerships and Garages are opening is a welcome sign. All we can do is wait and see how it goes, and hope for the best.

Atlantic Dawn

I actually thought car sales figures for May were decent enough all things considering, dealers only open from May 18th, almost 28% of last May's figures and open for about 40% of the month, not as complete doom and gloom as expected.

New car registrations for last month dropped 72.3% when compared to May 2019, according to the latest figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry.

1,751 new cars were registered last month, compared to 6,320 in May 2019.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0602/1144960-72-drop-in-new-car-sales-in-may/

Surely lots of May registrations were ordered well before May?

L-M

More than likely all of them, but there would be a lot of people that are going to hold off until the 202 period so it’s probably not a true figure

Jimmy Garlic

L-M wrote: »

More than likely all of them, but there would be a lot of people that are going to hold off until the 202 period so it’s probably not a true figure

With the economy flushed down the jacks and the high likelihood that the Greens and their phobia of anything that isn’t a forty grand glorified electric golf cart or ministerial Merc getting into government I can’t see a surge for 202 car sales. They will probably crucify the second hand market too with punitive legislation as they don’t like “old” cars either.

Water2626262

I think people underestimate how feckless people can be around car purchases. Tons of people are willing to sign into finance arrangements without really thinking about how they can afford them. Being in shaky employment doesn’t seem to bother them either.

L-M

L-M wrote: »

More than likely all of them, but there would be a lot of people that are going to hold off until the 202 period so it’s probably not a true figure

Surely there were lots in 2019 holding out for the 192 period also ......... "New car registrations for last month dropped 72.3% when compared to May 2019, according to the latest figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry"

Atlantic Dawn

Augeo wrote: »

Surely there were lots in 2019 holding out for the 192 period also ......... "New car registrations for last month dropped 72.3% when compared to May 2019, according to the latest figures from the Society of the Irish Motor Industry"

And additionally you had March and April this year wall to wall Covid and dealers closed all of April and most of March.

mickdw

Was in my local vw / audi dealer there last friday. Empty.
Certainly they had no crowd control worries.

jmreire

Water2626262 wrote: »

I think people underestimate how feckless people can be around car purchases. Tons of people are willing to sign into finance arrangements without really thinking about how they can afford them. Being in shaky employment doesn’t seem to bother them either.

Yes, thats true. But the Banks and lending institution's are not so feckless. They are even now putting the brakes on loan application's and putting them under the microscope...and this goes for all loans. One of them even said that under the present circumstance's, it would be reckless trading to give loans to anyone who not alone now, but in the future might have problems making repayment's. Expect a drying up of "easy" finance option's. Memories of pre 2008 lending and all the misery that brought the Country are still very fresh in the banks mindset especially where their profits are affected.

L-M

mickdw wrote: »

Was in my local vw / audi dealer there last friday. Empty.
Certainly they had no crowd control worries.

I think that’s your second/third time posting that.

Maybe go in again tomorrow to make sure they’re still not busy