Social distancing Megathread

Balf

trapp wrote: »

What direction do you think Leo will bring us?

In terms of restrictions etc.

I think we'll see a gradual loosening of controls. Schools may be shut for an extra week. But I think all businesses will be back at month end, because its just not feasible to stay closed.

I'd guess you see lots of hand sanitisers on the way in, performing the same function as holy water fonts for a earlier generation.

To deal with the issue costs money. Simple as that. Can't stop the money for months, and then spend money we don't have.

At risk people will need to take precautions, but that's a smaller group that will be easier and less costly to help.

Charlie19

If I could only stop posting in vanishing threads.

jimbobaloobob

Gael23 wrote: »

What does this involve and what are the things you can and can’t do? I live with 2 other guys and share a bathroom with one of them. Can I leave my house at any time to bring my dog for a walk or something?

Watch last Friday's late late show first subject. They gave a very good account of it.

racso1975

For people who think this will end on March 29th you really need to cop the fcuk on. With more test centres we'll see more positive results. Have you not seen any of the projections???

Balf

racso1975 wrote: »

For people who think this will end on March 29th you really need to cop the fcuk on. With more test centres we'll see more positive results. Have you not seen any of the projections???

I don't think the virus will be gone.

Just the capacity to interrupt commercial activity and social interaction. So I expect lots of us will be getting it.

ShooterSF

Balf wrote: »

I don't think the virus will be gone.

Just the capacity to interrupt commercial activity and social interaction. So I expect lots of us will be getting it.

Well if they re-open on the 29th my bar job is all yours if you want it. Plenty of social interaction.

ITman88

Balf wrote: »

I think we'll see a gradual loosening of controls. Schools may be shut for an extra week. But I think all businesses will be back at month end, because its just not feasible to stay closed.

I'd guess you see lots of hand sanitisers on the way in, performing the same function as holy water fonts for a earlier generation.

To deal with the issue costs money. Simple as that. Can't stop the money for months, and then spend money we don't have.

At risk people will need to take precautions, but that's a smaller group that will be easier and less costly to help.

I can’t reiterate how much I agree with your posts here.
It’s just all of what you said. But after tonight I feel Leo knows the direction we need to go.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

I can’t reiterate how much I agree with your posts here.
It’s just all of what you said. But after tonight I feel Leo knows the direction we need to go.

I have to say I think this is naive

Two weeks is March 30 when hopefully we hit a peak of cases

I'd say April 30 is more likely to see some restrictions lifted.

I currently dont expect to visit my office until at least then and yes it sucks

Idbatterim

Balf wrote: »

I think we'll see a gradual loosening of controls. Schools may be shut for an extra week. But I think all businesses will be back at month end, because its just not feasible to stay closed.

I'd guess you see lots of hand sanitisers on the way in, performing the same function as holy water fonts for a earlier generation.

To deal with the issue costs money. Simple as that. Can't stop the money for months, and then spend money we don't have.

At risk people will need to take precautions, but that's a smaller group that will be easier and less costly to help.

will be very interesting to see how it all pans out! I think people including business owners now, understand the current stance. Will they allow businesses they may have run for years or been in the family for decades, just entirely collapse?

in Spain they are putting shop workers behind plastic screens etc. you'd wonder if they can work this in such a way that life goes back to normalish for the low risk...

ITman88

racso1975 wrote: »

For people who think this will end on March 29th you really need to cop the fcuk on. With more test centres we'll see more positive results. Have you not seen any of the projections???

Projections are worst case.
People are invested with applying the Italian model to Ireland.
Lombardy was a region with an ageing population, of 10 million in an area the size of Munster.
How the fcuk are we going to have figures anything similar to Italy?

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

I have to say I think this is naive

Two weeks is March 30 when hopefully we hit a peak of cases

I'd say April 30 is more likely to see some restrictions lifted.

I currently dont expect to visit my office until at least then and yes it sucks

Fair enough. But I don’t think we can realistically apply the Italian approach to Ireland

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

Projections are worst case.
People are invested with applying the Italian model to Ireland.
Lombardy was a region with an ageing population, of 10 million in an area the size of Munster.
How the fcuk are we going to have figures anything similar to Italy?

If we have 15000 cases in two weeks multiply that by at least ten and that would be italy now

That's what Leo said tonight we will have 15000 cases by the end of the month

Charles Babbage

ITman88 wrote: »

Projections are worst case.
People are invested with applying the Italian model to Ireland.
Lombardy was a region with an ageing population, of 10 million in an area the size of Munster.
How the fcuk are we going to have figures anything similar to Italy?

We will if we do not stop it.

People are too hung up on the aging population bit, the older population partly reflected good health care in Italy. From other discussion, which I cannot verify, half the people in Dutch hospitals are under 50, and a 40 year old woman died in England.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

Fair enough. But I don’t think we can realistically apply the Italian approach to Ireland

Why not? We've 20000 due back from Spain, 10000 from Cheltenham and everyone who partied with Italian rugby fans.

Are you one of those 20 somethings who think you wont get it or infect anyone?

Idbatterim

they are due to have tests out shortly, that will tell you in 15 minutes if you have the virus. they could keep the eldery hours in place or just do delivery to the elderly the likes of tesco etc. and many will have family or neighbours who can get essentials like milk etc if needs be. Doctors can do home visits. I really disagree with free GP visits and certainly at times like these...

Stheno

Idbatterim wrote: »

they are due to have tests out shortly, that will tell you in 15 minutes if you have the virus. they could keep the eldery hours in place or just do delivery to the elderly the likes of tesco etc. and many will have family or neighbours who can get essentials like milk etc if needs be. Doctors can do home visits. I really disagree with free GP visits and certainly at times like these...

Problem with testing is it might be 14 days before you have enough viral load to be positive and could be asymptomatic in that time but shedding

Just stay away from people as much as possible

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

If we have 15000 cases in two weeks multiply that by at least ten and that would be italy now

That's what Leo said tonight we will have 15000 cases by the end of the month

Does that seem excessive to you knowing what we do about Italy’s demographic?

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

Why not? We've 20000 due back from Spain, 10000 from Cheltenham and everyone who partied with Italian rugby fans.

Are you one of those 20 somethings who think you wont get it or infect anyone?

So are we basing numbers on those events?

No I’m not and that comment is a little patronising.
I’m mid 30, been obeying what’s been advised re contact and handwashing.
Just because I question what’s been predicted doesn’t mean I’m completely egotistical about the effects of this.

ITman88

Charles Babbage wrote: »

We will if we do not stop it.

People are too hung up on the aging population bit, the older population partly reflected good health care in Italy. From other discussion, which I cannot verify, half the people in Dutch hospitals are under 50, and a 40 year old woman died in England.

Can you verify any of your post with stats?

AulWan

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

It's not selfish.

I stopped reading there. It is selfish.

You're more concerned with making money and socialising, then with reducing deaths.

"Somebody has to take it on the chin"

I genuinely hope its not one of those at risk people you claim to love.

Cantona's Collars

All the justified hullabaloo about pubs in Temple bar being packed but the next day while RTE were reporting from the street there,you could see people in the background greeting each other and hugging, shaking hands and kissing on the cheek.

In my work,it can be hard at times to keep distance but it's workable if some people had a bit of cop on. Unfortunately some don't and would literally stand inches from you or lean in over you to pick up something or look at a screen when a simple request while standing back a bit would suffice.

Stheno

ITman88 wrote: »

Does that seem excessive to you knowing what we do about Italy’s demographic?

No they are reporting 30k cases when given 9 out of 10 are asymptomatic according to one of their studies that wod mean 3 million infected

ITman88

Stheno wrote: »

No they are reporting 30k cases when given 9 out of 10 are asymptomatic according to one of their studies that wod mean 3 million infected

So at present we have have 3000 cases in Ireland.
That’s death rate comparable to the flu in both Italy and here

acequion

Excellent thread OP and very moving posts by many who have genuine reason to fear the negative effects of social isolation. Very real and very plausible concerns and I, too, would worry.

It's all well and good to say get out and explore the countryside and the forests but what if you live in a county like Kerry with the highest rainfall levels in the land? And also,coincidentally or not, one of the highest rates of mental health problems. Fine, you might say, go out anyway regardless of the weather and again, ok, but don't tell me that constant gloom and drizzle don't impact!

Personally, as quite a loner, some time for solitude is not a big problem for me. But too much is too much and as I tend towards anxiety and depression, I really need balance in my life. Already, I'm tending towards insomnia and prowling around the house at all hours of the night,right now it's gone 2.am and I'm in no way sleepy. I'd be out cold at midnight at the latest if life was normal.

But like the OP, I do feel that this is necessary. I just so sincerely hope for everybody's sake that it doesn't go on too long. Already I'm vowing that I'll never sweat the small stuff again once I get my life back.:)

Hoboo

ITman88 wrote: »

Does that seem excessive to you knowing what we do about Italy’s demographic?

I think it's extremely optimistic. If they have enough tests kits, which they won't, that figure will be far higher. The number currently infected but not displaying symptoms yet already dwarf's that.

El Tarangu

Balf wrote: »

Somebody will have to take something on the chin.

I hope I'm not misinterpreting you, but your post could read as, instead of sacrificing some economic growth, we should sacrifice large numbers of people who are not young/healthy.

ITman88 wrote: »

So at present we have have 3000 cases in Ireland.
That’s death rate comparable to the flu in both Italy and here

This is kind of a misnomer; a post from another thread describes it succinctly:

OMM 0000 wrote: »

Flu R0 value: 1.3
Wuhan coronavirus R0 value: 2 - 2.5

Flu death rate: 0.1%
Wuhan coronavirus death rate: 2%

So it's about twice as contagious as the flu, and about 20 times more lethal.

loyatemu

I think the other issue is that as well as being twice as contagious, many people have no symptoms yet are still contagious (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221)

Anyway, China is coming out of lockdown now, having gone into it in January. That's 8-10 weeks, in a much denser country (the cities at least). There's obviously a risk of it re-igniting afterwards, we'll need to have more stringent checks on people entering the country etc. We may have to lock down smaller areas if there are outbreaks (this apparently worked well in Italy, their problem was people had already left those areas to spread it elsewhere).

As for damage to the economy - governments are going to have to find imaginative solutions (which may look a lot like socialism) and central banks are going to have to print more money; but at the end of the day as long as food is still being produced, no-one will starve.

ITman88

El Tarangu wrote: »

I hope I'm not misinterpreting you, but your post could read as, instead of sacrificing some economic growth, we should sacrifice large numbers of people who are not young/healthy.




This is kind of a misnomer; a post from another thread describes it succinctly:

I was trying to make sense of what the other poster was saying.
If you read his post he said we have 10 times more people infected than confirmed.
That’s 3k infected in Ireland??
And 3 million in Italy!
Calculate the death rate using his figures

ITman88

ITman88 wrote: »

I was trying to make sense of what the other poster was saying.
If you read his post he said we have 10 times more people infected than confirmed.
That’s 3k infected in Ireland??
And 3 million in Italy!
Calculate the death rate using his figures

He's likely right about the infections though. Considering the way the virus works, people can be infected without showing symptoms, while others will simply have lesser signs, which they'll shrug off.

As for the death rate, nah. There are too many factors to consider when looking at an individuals risk. Such an estimate based on a "death rate" is inaccurate at best...

CtevenSrowder

AulWan wrote: »

I stopped reading there. It is selfish.

You're more concerned with making money and socialising, then with reducing deaths.

"Somebody has to take it on the chin"

I genuinely hope its not one of those at risk people you claim to love.

"I stopped reading there". That's your problem. You refuse to look at the broader societal impact of what you propose. It's madness. And you do this because it's in your personal interest. Bury your head in the sand all you like. There will be lives lost if the economy implodes aswell, do you not understand that?!

And yes, someone does have to take it on the chin. That's the whole point. This is the problem you refuse to acknowledge. I want to limit the numbers who do, you want everyone to. You are talking as if there are no serious consequences to your position, and refuse to acknowledge them when they are pointed out to you.