CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

r93kaey5p2izun

I know it's not representative as the case fatality rate or anything like that, particularly while the virus is still spreading exponentially and testing can't keep up with identifying cases, but seeing the number of deaths as a percentage of closed cases creep up over the last couple of days is unsettling.

TravelTiger

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Do we all feel like we have it ? Or is it just me who is paranoid.
Taking huge breaths, forehead aching, muscle pain.

There will definitely be reverse placebo effects in our heads in coming weeks

fritzelly

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

My mate is ex army, his retired over a year plus. Drove APCs for the army. That not in the news yet the Irish army has asked ex army to help!

You are as trushworthy as any other poster on this thread which is to say zero

skimpydoo

I am seeing different definitions of lockdown on here, nobody knows exactly what lockdown entails. What will probably happen is the Army will be helping with contact tracing and also helping the Guards and Emergency Services and Front Line staff. If the positive testing figures keep increasing then we may see what is happening in Italy and Spain. I think for now we should stop believing everything we see on WhatsApp and just wait and see what happens.

Cheerful Spring2

fritzelly wrote: »

You are as trushworthy as any other poster on this thread which is to say zero

:rolleyes:

The Oort Cloud

What's up with this ex minister for social protection?


Regina Doherty lost her seat and job in the election but yet she is still running the department of social protection in regard to Coronavirus issues?. Am I missing something? Is this below news story real or fake or is it just a huge mistake?. How can she still be minister of social protection when she was ultimately removed by the electorate?

The Department of Social Protection is setting up a temporary refund scheme for those companies that have to stop trading.
They will reimburse employers up to €203 a week for each staff member, but the refunds will take time to process.



Minister for Social Protection Regina Doherty explained that banks will provide working capital finance in the form of overdrafts or short-term loans to cover costs for firms.


All workers, including the self-employed, will also be eligible for a new Pandemic Unemployment Payment equal to the Jobseekers Allowance rate.
Minister Doherty said: “Ireland has entered uncharted territory as a consequence of the spread of Covid-19. This is now both a public health and economic issue

Link: https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dept-to-set-up-new-pandemic-unemployment-payment-for-staff-affected-by-covid-19-988144.html

skimpydoo

For anyone who has a birthday soon, the only presents you will be getting is toilet roll.

Syncpolice

Will factories and the like be forced to close

fritzelly

The Oort Cloud wrote: »

What's up with this ex minister for social protection?

The same way Leo is still Taoiseach til a new government is formed

Just heard five of the foreigners I work with are leaving Hanoi.. Tonnes of short-termers leaving but didn't think these people who I've worked with and have been friends with for years would jump. I feel nauseous. I think the reality of all this just hit me.

bodhrandude

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Do we all feel like we have it ? Or is it just me who is paranoid.
Taking huge breaths, forehead aching, muscle pain.

Its very normal I reckon to hyperventilate when reading this thread, it literally does take your breath away, the updates I'm grateful for but some of them horrific at the same time.

fritzelly

Deleted User wrote: »

Just heard five of the foreigners I work with are leaving Hanoi.. Tonnes of short-termers leaving but didn't think these people who I've worked with and have been friends with for years would jump. I feel nauseous. I think the reality of all this just hit me.

Is this a job security thing do you think?
Still planning on staying?

spookwoman

Could be worse
https://twitter.com/CatFoodBreath/status/1239365627409772546?s=20

bb12

The Oort Cloud wrote: »

What's up with this ex minister for social protection?


Regina Doherty lost her seat and job in the election but yet she is still running the department of social protection in regard to Coronavirus issues?. Am I missing something? Is this below news story real or fake or is it just a huge mistake?. How can she still be minister of social protection when she was ultimately removed by the electorate?











Link: https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dept-to-set-up-new-pandemic-unemployment-payment-for-staff-affected-by-covid-19-988144.html

Because she lost her seat I don't think she's allowed in the Dail anymore though.

fritzelly

fritzelly wrote: »

Is this a job security thing do you think?
Still planning on staying?

I'm not sure. I think it's simple finances for most. I'm definitely staying. It's home and I have some things happening that require me to be here.

Ipso

spookwoman wrote: »

This another one doing the rounds in the states and another about mosquitoes carrying the virus

For the love of sweet merciful sh1te

fritzelly

Worldometers - dunno why anyone would even think of doing this

We apologize for the temporary disservice that you may have experienced. For about 20 minutes, our site showed clearly incorrect data due to a malicious act. We have investigated the issue and we're now implementing protective measures to prevent this from happening again. The other day we got hit with a big DDoS attack. Now this. We'll continue with our daily efforts and we'll not give up.

Syncpolice

Virus expert on LBC tomorrow 1am answering questions

Thrashssacre

Syncpolice wrote: »

Virus expert on LBC tomorrow 1am answering questions

So??? There's virus experts on all the news channels pretty much every day now, why is some random uk radio station significant?

Peregrinus

The Oort Cloud wrote: »

What's up with this ex minister for social protection?


Regina Doherty lost her seat and job in the election but yet she is still running the department of social protection in regard to Coronavirus issues?. Am I missing something? Is this below news story real or fake or is it just a huge mistake?. How can she still be minister of social protection when she was ultimately removed by the electorate?

Under the Constitution, when Dail Eireann is dissolved outgoing Ministers continue to discharge the duties of their office until the Dail elects a Taoiseach and he makes appoints (or reappoints) Ministers. This remains the case regardless of whether the Ministers win or lose their seats in the election, or even stand in the election.

Doherty will act as Minister for Social Protection until someone else is appointed to the post.

Syncpolice

Thrashssacre wrote: »

So??? There's virus experts on all the news channels pretty much every day now, why is some random uk radio station significant?

May be of use to someone obviously not yourself

YFlyer

How are people coping? I still have a half bottle of whiskey to get through.

cnocbui

Opinion
Grant Wilson
Australia’s economy will collapse in Q2

The Morrison government's plan to protect the economy and the health of Australians needs to change. The sooner it does the better.
Grant Wilson Contributor
Mar 15, 2020 – 10.57am

Unprecedented decisions await in Canberra this week.

Thus far the Morrison government has presented the coronavirus outbreak in mutually inclusive terms. According to the plan, we can protect the health of Australians, while keeping Australians in jobs and Australian businesses in business. Unfortunately, this is not the case.

The plan will need to change. The sooner it does, the better.

There is a grim logic here, that we are reluctant to unpack. But we know, from our vantage, that it will predominate in the months ahead, both in financial markets and in public policy circles.

The conclusion is straight-forward: beyond the chronic global shortage of testing equipment for coronavirus, many countries will soon face an exhaustion of available medical infrastructure for those cases deemed as severe.

These cases will be heavily skewed to the elderly cohort, where the observed case fatality rate is much higher. Selective treatment protocols will be deployed, as we have seen in Wuhan and Lombardy.

Yet if the outbreak continues unabated, it will overwhelm all available facilities, leaving even those requiring access to facilities to cope for themselves.

The Morrison government has announced a $17.6 billion coronavirus stimulus package, but will it be enough. Getty

It will be said that most cases of coronavirus are mild and do not require admission to an intensive care unit (ICU). That is true. But ICU capacity, inclusively defined, clearly looms as a binding constraint in terms of policy formulation.

On this front, the data is hard to find. Our chart uses strictly accredited sources, thus the data are not timely. Still, it is a good starting point.

From there, various assumptions need to be made, relating to the path of the outbreak, as against the current use of ICU capacity, the turnover of cases, the availability of ventilators, and critically, the availability of front-line medical professionals (our new firies).

There are also now aggressive steps underway to scale the infrastructure, and to re-tool alternatives, as difficult as that is to do in rapid time.

The conclusion stands. In many countries, a point of exhaustion looms. Beyond that point, the case fatality rate for coronavirus will rise, with attendant social, economic and political consequences. Unfortunately, this point is not very far away.

We highlighted last weekend that Australia is relatively well placed to manage the violent pivot as between the East and the West that is now well underway.

On this constraint, however, we are not. Eleven per cent of Australians, some 2.8 million, are aged 70 or more. Others will have pre-existing health conditions that will increase the susceptibility to coronavirus, and increase the load on Australia’s medical system.

There will be no feasible way to scale this infrastructure in the event of sustained community-based transmission. Many Australians will die without access to appropriate medical care.

It follows that we ought to do everything practically possible to avert this outcome, even if it only amounts to buying time to prepare, and to learn from and to adapt to the experience of other countries, in terms of what has worked and what has not.

This is where the mutual inclusivity breaks down. The cost of intervening will be extraordinarily high.
Recession

When we called Australia going into recession, we explained that we did not want to model the outcome given the uncertainty and non-linearity involved. We still do not want to.

But by way of ballpark, and to provide a sense of how far away we are from the recently revised consensus, we are looking at Q2 GDP in the range of -20 per cent to -30 per cent on a quarter on quarter annualised basis, with risks skewed to the downside.

This assumes some pull forward in demand into end Q1 as stocking commences in earnest, followed by a sustained 25 per cent to 50 per cent reduction in various categories of personal spending, particularly, recreation and culture, and hotels, cafes and restaurants.

The upside risk of further fiscal stimulus is more than offset by the downside risks posed by passthrough to other sectors of the economy, including externally.

For context, Australia’s time series for GDP dates to 1959. In that period we have not seen a fall of more than 12 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis. We note, as well, how disciplined the RBA was this past week in not commenting beyond March.

What is clear is that unless Canberra acts decisively on multiple fronts in the week ahead the risks will escalate even further.

How can we say this?

Firstly, Exante is independent. Even if others are on the same page, they likely cannot say so.

Second, we have a superior datastack on the virus, assembled and augmented each day by a global team since the last week of January. We have also been in collaboration with one of the top epidemiological research teams in the world, providing our open-source data to track China’s return to work.

We can see that Australia is accelerating now along paths that we have seen before. We are open to sharing our resources with the Department of Health, if they would reach out, as a public service.

Third, we assume the Morrison government will prioritize a public health intervention over the economy, and then deploy a full suite of technocratic efforts to mitigate the cost, on the hope that the crisis abates. We will discuss the modalities we see here next time.
China, South Korea

Our broader concern for Australia is that the intervention may not work. We only have two examples of effective containment globally so far, China and South Korea, each with unique societal characteristics, and both sharing important prior experiences with SARS and MERS.

For Australia, the journey to accept the degradation of ways of life we all take from granted will be more problematic, particularly given the path back to normality is not given.

It is unclear that Australians will accept that social distancing is a civic responsibility. It is unclear that we can respond with agility and solidarity and equanimity when the costs will be so high and so unevenly spread.

What is clear is that unless Canberra acts decisively and on multiple fronts in the week ahead the risks that we face will escalate even further.

Those risks include an entirely credible scenario where Australia moves into demographic decline for the first time since the Great War, as a combination of higher fatalities, lower births, and a precipitous fall in net immigration.

That scenario does not start with ‘R’ it starts with ‘D’.

The Morrison government has a mandate to act, and a duty as well.

Grant Wilson is head of Asia Pacific at Exante Data, a macro advisory and data analytics firm that provides research to institutional investors, central banks, corporations and private banks.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-economy-will-collapse-in-q2-as-it-must-20200315-p54a58

That is another sort of depressing. I am posting it because I think it's probably relevant with respect to a lot of economies, including Ireland's.

Let's hope we just get a recession and not a depression.

YFlyer

Too long to read now.

Syncpolice

YFlyer wrote: »

How are people coping? I still have a half bottle of whiskey to get through.

Dunno no alcohol tonight

Will prob get pissed tomorrow with the break in driving til Wednesday

Job security not good

YFlyer

Syncpolice wrote: »

Dunno no alcohol tonight

Will prob get pissed tomorrow with the break in driving til Wednesday

Job security not good

Sorry to hear. Are you a coach driver?

I'll be at home typing my PhD thesis. Nicked the PC from campus as don't know when college be open again.

The Oort Cloud

Peregrinus wrote: »

Under the Constitution, when Dail Eireann is dissolved outgoing Ministers continue to discharge the duties of their office until the Dail elects a Taoiseach and he makes appoints (or reappoints) Ministers. This remains the case regardless of whether the Ministers win or lose their seats in the election, or even stand in the election.

Doherty will act as Minister for Social Protection until someone else is appointed to the post.

Thank you for the clarification.

Syncpolice

YFlyer wrote: »

Sorry to hear. Are you a coach driver?

I'll be at home typing my PhD thesis. Nicked the PC from campus as don't know when college be open again.

No not a professional driver

sasta le

UrbanSprawl wrote: »

whats the difference? in a recession would we still spend 235m on DP centres? I dunno my feeling is if someone wants to leave the cruel inhumane DP system and go home or to a wealthy country we should enable that for them ..

Time to close our doors for now dont you think?

UrbanSprawl

sasta le wrote: »

Time to close our doors for now dont you think?

I don' t stand over that comment really but if this as serious as igets and there will be a recession and I accept that ppl from all over the world are in ireland and have no were else to go in the short term many will have seen their gig job evaporate and flight home might be out of reach money wise so if anyone wants to go before whatever happens we would/should pay for that ..stay if you want ..its a lottery

Syncpolice

Shedload more people out of work once they close borders

Suppose it's inevitable

Larbre34

YFlyer wrote: »

How are people coping? I still have a half bottle of whiskey to get through.

Must admit myself and herself had a right old knees up yesterday, persecco, gin, wine, Guinness, Bushmills, with a few tasty meals and snacks.

Obviously didn't feel the better of it this morning, as you'd expect, but we had a natter over brekky and agreed it wasn't a great idea in case one of the parents took bad or other emergency situation arose, as well it might.

So didn't have a drop today, hit the Phoenix Park for a couple of hours (lots around but keeping to themselves) came home and brewed coffee and made a list of a few jobs around the gaff to be going on with, and a few things we could do together or alone.

I can see the value of keeping busy and sticking to as much a normal routine as possible as well as exercise and fresh air so far as advice allows.

As for actually coping, there is some great comedy to be delved into, Curb your Enthusiasm and Veep are my go-tos at the minute.

Syncpolice

Toilet roll theft is now a thing

Syncpolice

Skysports

"Formula 1 is back"

Metroid diorteM

bmcc10

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is this in Hanoi?

lawrencesummers

David McWilliams has some interesting podcasts on the situation.

Worth a listen

spookwoman

bmcc10 wrote: »

Is this in Hanoi?

Wuhan, China, on March 11, 2020.

Syncpolice

lawrencesummers wrote: »

David McWilliams has some interesting podcasts on the situation.

Worth a listen

Dunno is he worth a listen tbh

Prob just waffle to make him seem relevant

Spook_ie

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

One of the paradigms for handing out surprising/shocking news is to do it all in one go. The other is to announce one element at a time.

The government is clearly following this latter approach so IF they are going to do a major announcement tomorrow I expect it to focus on social isolation measures on Monday, to come into effect Tuesday. That's the biggest bang for the buck announcement. Other announcements will come in order of impact.

Then there will be announcements regarding hospitals, healthcare facilities on Tuesday as they're the next priority

After that I'm a little unclear on what will be announced when but I'd expect that we'll hear announcements regarding the Fire Brigade being repurposed, the Army providing Assistance to Civil Powers more widely, food and pharmacy deliveries, requisitioning and repurposing of barracks, hotels etc.

I'd expect it to culminate in a significant restriction in inward air travel (maybe even an almost full ban ) / mandatory fourteen isolation for all inward travellers announced on Thursday or Friday.


It seems they're going for the rolling approach rather than taking us directly to the end point right away. This is probably because they don't have everything they intend to announce on Thursday sorted out yet and that's playing into the phasing of this too.

I could be wrong and it'll be a big bang announcement but that doesn't seem to be their approach especially since there is so much to announce that fitting it all into one announcement would result in people missing important information.

I'm particularly curious what will happen at the border by week's end. If they're as serious as they seem to have become they'll try to close it but I'm a doctor not a national security adviser so Fed if I know how they'll do that. Still even an 80% effective closing would help hugely.

Given the escalation of the situation in places like New York I'd be thinking we're in for a whole mess of restrictions in one go aka a lockdown

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-new-york-and-la-on-lockdown-as-world-reacts-to-spread-of-covid-19-11958145

whisky_galore

lawrencesummers wrote: »

David McWilliams has some interesting podcasts on the situation.

Worth a listen

An economist commenting on a health issue. I'd be as well to have a word with my car mechanic to see what his take on C19 is.

Syncpolice

They better have this emergency welfare sorted next week when this sh1tshow hits hard

dummy_crusher

whisky_galore wrote: »

An economist commenting on a health issue. I'd be as well to have a word with my car mechanic to see what his take on C19 is.

You don't think this is affecting the economy? :rolleyes:

whisky_galore

dummy_crusher wrote: »

You don't think this is affecting the economy? :rolleyes:

As above, it'll be obvious waffle to give him something to be doing.

Spook_ie

Some more research on numbers needed and as there is no cause of death given is open to pure speculation but did you know...

That on March 6th 2019 some 81 people had death notices on rip.ie and on March 6th. 2020 there were 101, a 25% increase. Is it possible that we had more deaths from CoVid19 in early March that just weren't recognised as such.

Maybe someone else can pick a random date between Jan 1st and March 13th and compare year on year

10000maniacs

Syncpolice wrote: »

Dunno is he worth a listen tbh

Prob just waffle to make him seem relevant

He was right about the property crash just in the same way a stopped clock is eventually right.

Syncpolice

10000maniacs wrote: »

He was right about the property crash just in the same way a stopped clock is eventually right.

Which one predicted a soft landing last time

dummy_crusher

20,000 to be offered mercy flights home from Spain

Also interesting in that article which I hadn't already heard:

Graduate fifth-year doctors from Irish medical schools have been informed their internship placements will be brought forward two and three months to May - providing Irish hospitals with a vital extra manpower boost.

Junior doctors are undergoing training in specialist intubation procedures - essentially the insertion of a breathing tube through the mouth and into the airway.

YFlyer

Larbre34 wrote: »

Must admit myself and herself had a right old knees up yesterday, persecco, gin, wine, Guinness, Bushmills, with a few tasty meals and snacks.

Obviously didn't feel the better of it this morning, as you'd expect, but we had a natter over brekky and agreed it wasn't a great idea in case one of the parents took bad or other emergency situation arose, as well it might.

So didn't have a drop today, hit the Phoenix Park for a couple of hours (lots around but keeping to themselves) came home and brewed coffee and made a list of a few jobs around the gaff to be going on with, and a few things we could do together or alone.

I can see the value of keeping busy and sticking to as much a normal routine as possible as well as exercise and fresh air so far as advice allows.

As for actually coping, there is some great comedy to be delved into, Curb your Enthusiasm and Veep are my go-tos at the minute.

Great to hear yee had an ole session.

Yes a normal routine is important. I'll go for a run tomorrow and do some thesis write up.


Coping by trolling US websites and watching old Spurs clips.